PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[duke2x]

I usually leave mine at the Catholic orphanage.

Putting it another way, it's not looking good to attend games for Coach K's last season in Cameron.

[aimo]

We watched an absolutely cringeworthy interview on the NBC News last night with four nurses from Greensboro, who argued rather vociferously that they wouldn't be getting vaxxed. Some truly extraordinary reasons were given, such as the vaccine hasn't been tested, and we really don't know if it's effective, on and on. I hope the hospital that employs them is proud. Add all this to the new assertion from the CDC that the delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox, and it's difficult to muster any optimism.

I saw this and was yelling obscenities at the screen. What REALLY griped me, outside of their ridiculous non-arguments, was that NONE of them were wearing masks!

[Lord Ash]

Hate this new cdc news. Feels like we have slid back into bad. Got a wedding in two days that I really don’t want to attend…

[Bluedog]

We watched an absolutely cringeworthy interview on the NBC News last night with four nurses from Greensboro, who argued rather vociferously that they wouldn't be getting vaxxed. Some truly extraordinary reasons were given, such as the vaccine hasn't been tested, and we really don't know if it's effective, on and on. I hope the hospital that employs them is proud. Add all this to the new assertion from the CDC that the delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox, and it's difficult to muster any optimism.

I'll give you some optimism. Despite India and the UK not really doing anything, Delta has severely subsided there clearly before anywhere close to "herd immunity". Despite Michigan residents not really doing much, alpha subsided there and didn't even make a huge surge in neighboring Indiana and Ohio. COVID acts in mysterious ways and seems like it ebbs and flows for no rhyme or reason even without major intervention. The one intervention that clearly has had an impact of course is vaccinations.

[PackMan97]

I'll give you some optimism. Despite India and the UK not really doing anything, Delta has severely subsided there clearly before anywhere close to "herd immunity". Despite Michigan residents not really doing much, alpha subsided there and didn't even make a huge surge in neighboring Indiana and Ohio. COVID acts in mysterious ways and seems like it ebbs and flows for no rhyme or reason even without major intervention. The one intervention that clearly has had an impact of course is vaccinations.

Or it could be that asymptomatic spread could be greater than known and we are reaching herd immunity?

[willywoody]

Or it could be that asymptomatic spread could be greater than known and we are reaching herd immunity?

Asymptotic spread is real in the vaccinated. AMA email today says CDC will be announcing some prelim data out of Mass and from professional sports leagues.

Here is the email:

CDC suggests vaccinated individuals infected with Delta coronavirus variant carry high viral loads
The Washington Post (7/29, Ellerbeck, Cunningham) reports, “CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said earlier this week that she has” unpublished “research indicating vaccinated people infected with” the Delta coronavirus variant “are carrying high viral loads – a new phenomenon, compared with how the original version of the virus behaved.” A CDC spokeswoman “acknowledged there are studies forthcoming but didn’t clarify when they might be released.”
According to the New York Times (7/29, Mandavilli), some of the research – which the CDC is expected to make public Friday – “may be related in part to an outbreak in Provincetown, Mass., where Fourth of July festivities have led to 882 cases as of Thursday. Nearly three-quarters of those people were fully vaccinated.” In addition, the agency “has tracked data from the [COVID-19] Sports and Society Workgroup, a coalition of professional sports leagues that is testing more than 10,000 people at least daily and sequencing all infections.”

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Just so everyone knows this isn't a totally regional thing, here is today's take from the NY Post (owned by Murdoch). A number of New Yorkers read the Post, take it very seriously, and quote it when saying "You're wrong, I read an article that said..."

The good news is that the Post is supportive of the vaccine. The bad news is that though they encourage people to get vaccinated, they basically think the problem is over, requiring people to wear mask is the most egregious offense to our civil liberties and quality of life in the history of the United States, and that there will be huge political ramifications for all of this.

Because of course this whole thing is all about politics. And clearly forgetting that though one can reasonably question the messaging by the CDC, it doesn't make a lot of sense to blame the current questionable CDC messaging on Biden while giving Trump no blame for the questionable CDC messaging when he was president.

Here is the Post's cover today.

Post Cover.jpg

[Lord Ash]

Hey, can I ask the medical people here something?

I have a friend who is pregnant. She did not get the vaccine yet, but really wants to. I know that people cannot give cut and dry medical recs, but can anyone offer any thoughts about the potential interaction between the mRNA vaccines and pregnancy? Like, is there a real worry, or is it just general caution?

Thanks!

[Rich]

Are America's unvaccinated changing their minds?

In the US, coronavirus infection rates are surging in every state, fueled by the Delta variant - and a large pool of unvaccinated Americans.

In Baxter County, Arkansas, the vaccination rate is only 33%. It's now one of the nation's Covid-19 hotspots.

Video from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-58017289

[Bluedog]

Just so everyone knows this isn't a totally regional thing, here is today's take from the NY Post (owned by Murdoch). A number of New Yorkers read the Post, take it very seriously, and quote it when saying "You're wrong, I read an article that said..."

The good news is that the Post is supportive of the vaccine. The bad news is that though they encourage people to get vaccinated, they basically think the problem is over, requiring people to wear mask is the most egregious offense to our civil liberties and quality of life in the history of the United States, and that there will be huge political ramifications for all of this.

Because of course this whole thing is all about politics. And clearly forgetting that though one can reasonably question the messaging by the CDC, it doesn't make a lot of sense to blame the current questionable CDC messaging on Biden while giving Trump no blame for the questionable CDC messaging when he was president.

Here is the Post's cover today.

Post Cover.jpg

It's a somewhat compelling graphic, but I assume we're severely undercounting breakthrough cases although I recognize that is just "breakthrough hospitalizations." Having said that, I agree that people are terrible with risk assessments and this has become politically charged and both sides have often lacked logic and consistency.

[freshmanjs]

Putting it another way, it's not looking good to attend games for Coach K's last season in Cameron.

Where are you guys getting this information? I’ve had very recent discussions with iron dukes and there is no indication they are anywhere close to revisiting the decision to allow fans. They have been totally open along the way, so I’d be surprised if what you’re saying is true. What’s your source?

[Bluedog]

Where are you guys getting this information? I’ve had very recent discussions with iron dukes and there is no indication they are anywhere close to revisiting the decision to allow fans. They have been totally open along the way, so I’d be surprised if what you’re saying is true. What’s your source?

I don't think people are suggesting that the change is from DUKE, but rather people are forecasting MACRO trends and then the potential fallout with increased restrictions. Having said that, we've been pretty poor at predicting macro trends, so I wouldn't sweat it at this point YET. I agree that nothing is imminent. (And I recognize this wasn't directed at me, but that's how I read the comments; not that anybody actually had any "inside info.")

[Acymetric]

Where are you guys getting this information? I’ve had very recent discussions with iron dukes and there is no indication they are anywhere close to revisiting the decision to allow fans. They have been totally open along the way, so I’d be surprised if what you’re saying is true. What’s your source?

It doesn't sound like he's sourcing it or anything, just speculating that given the trends in the numbers, the concerns about the variants, and the fact that Duke had some of the strictest policies last year, that they might end up revisiting whether to allow fans. Assuming you're just talking to regular Iron Dukes folks (as opposed to being friends with the head of the Iron Dukes or whatever, obviously I have no idea) I don't know that what they're saying holds much weight. I wouldn't expect them to start saying anything else until an official decision was made (not saying there will be a decision made or anything, but there certainly could be).

[freshmanjs]

It doesn't sound like he's sourcing it or anything, just speculating that given the trends in the numbers, the concerns about the variants, and the fact that Duke had some of the strictest policies last year, that they might end up revisiting whether to allow fans. Assuming you're just talking to regular Iron Dukes folks (as opposed to being friends with the head of the Iron Dukes or whatever, obviously I have no idea) I don't know that what they're saying holds much weight. I wouldn't expect them to start saying anything else until an official decision was made (not saying there will be a decision made or anything, but there certainly could be).

I think it’s much more likely they will require vaccines and masks to enter vs eliminating fans.

[Acymetric]

I think it’s much more likely they will require vaccines and masks to enter vs eliminating fans.

I think we can probably assume they are going to end up requiring masks, at least (although basketball season is still months out so it is hard to really predict where things will be at that point). I certainly wouldn't say it is likely that they won't allow fans at Cameron, but I believe it is absolutely something that could be on the table as we approach the season.

Football I would be less concerned about as an outdoor event.

[Bluedog]

Football I would be less concerned about as an outdoor event.

It's also easy to socially distance yourself at Duke football...

[CameronBornAndBred]

It's also easy to socially distance yourself at Duke football...

Sadly true! (Just avoid the food and bathroom lines.)

[Acymetric]

Sadly true! (Just avoid the food and bathroom lines.)

I don't really notice bathroom lines much anymore (since they finished renovating). The food lines are brutal, you really just have to avoid the entire upper concourse I guess because the food lines extend all the way from the concession stands right up to the wall.

[Phredd3]

I think it’s much more likely they will require vaccines and masks to enter vs eliminating fans.

I actually wrote to them in support of such a requirement.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't really notice bathroom lines much anymore (since they finished renovating). The food lines are brutal, you really just have to avoid the entire upper concourse I guess because the food lines extend all the way from the concession stands right up to the wall.

In the concourse under the press box, the lines for both are a nightmare. Just walking through there on a regular non-pandemic day is likely unhealthy.