PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[rsvman]

This is interesting/promising:

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-l...184358113.html

"The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion."

Not sure I believe the bolded (mine), but, there's hope.

The following is a quote from a bit further down in the article linked:

Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared ... I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians," Sandra Zampa, an undersecretary at the health ministry, said in a statement.

Sounds like they are going through pretty much what we are currently going through, except that they are slightly ahead of us because it got there before it got here. What the original guy said may or may not be true, but the follow-up quote makes it clear that it is only his opinion, not a scientific fact.

[Ggallagher]

It comes down to leadership. Compare the Presidents of 1918 and 2020. We can't discuss the latter without breaking several board rules, but at least DBR can have a calm, rational discussion about whoever was President in 1918. Let's see here... it was...

Never mind.

I just happened to listen to a podcast last week comparing the country's response to the two pandemics. They pointed out that President Wilson provided ZERO leadership with respect to the pandemic. He in fact never spoke about it publicly. His sole focus was the war. They said it was something of a mystery that other than his nearly sole focus on the war, he still did not bother to address the flu which killed more people than the war.

They did mention that just like now we had leaders at other levels of government and society who preached the "Move on, nothing to see here" approach telling the public to ignore all the hyped up warnings.

And sorry, I'm too lazy to go back and read all Wilson's speeches to fact check the podcast, but it's not like there was any political bent to the podcast so I'm going to assume they were being reasonably accurate about Wilson.

[Ggallagher]

I thought maybe I should at least make the effort with respect to my previous post about President Wilson to see when his stroke occurred. Obviously that would have had an impact on his response to the Spanish Flu epidemic. The stroke was in October 1919 so he did have the opportunity to address the pandemic before he was incapacitated.

[MChambers]

I just happened to listen to a podcast last week comparing the country's response to the two pandemics. They pointed out that President Wilson provided ZERO leadership with respect to the pandemic. He in fact never spoke about it publicly. His sole focus was the war. They said it was something of a mystery that other than his nearly sole focus on the war, he still did not bother to address the flu which killed more people than the war.

They did mention that just like now we had leaders at other levels of government and society who preached the "Move on, nothing to see here" approach telling the public to ignore all the hyped up warnings.

And sorry, I'm too lazy to go back and read all Wilson's speeches to fact check the podcast, but it's not like there was any political bent to the podcast so I'm going to assume they were being reasonably accurate about Wilson.

That might have been John Barry, on On The Media. Barry wrote a great book on the 1918 flu. Here's the segment I heard, which focused on how the media ignored the flu in 1918. https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts...layed-1918-flu

Barry also was on Fresh Air, and you can listen or read the transcript here: https://www.npr.org/2020/05/14/85598...ovid-19-crisis

When asked what mistakes we are repeating from 1918, he says:

Well, first, for very different reasons, the outbreak was trivialized for a long time. And if these public health measures - social distancing and so forth - are going to be successful, people have to comply with the recommendations. So by trivializing the threat for a period of months, that sort of encourages people to ignore recommendations, gets it implanted in people's minds that this is not a real threat and that it's being overblown by the media. You know, that's No. 1. No. 2, the testing debacle, which continues, unfortunately, is just a huge, huge problem. When places come out of lockdown, they really should have the testing and the contact tracing in place.

These things work. They have been demonstrated to be highly successful in saving lives and also allowing the economy to function in many countries around the world. I won't say we're dead last. We're not dead last. There are other - plenty of other countries worse off than we are on a policy and execution basis. But for a country that should be the best in the world, to be where we are in these areas is almost beyond belief.

[ArkieDukie]

Agree that we should be better prepared for a resurgence; more is being learned daily about the virus and how it works. With the new understanding comes new and improved treatment options. The unfortunate handicap that many doctors have now is that many patients are insisting on one particular treatment that is not necessarily the best option (chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine).

Does our increased flow of information make this pandemic more or less challenging? With regard to international collaborations and exchange of information regarding patient symptoms and treatment options, I’d say yes. We have more resources than in 1919, which also helps. However, open and more rapid communications have also led to a proliferation of crackpot conspiracy theories. Was that an issue in 1919?

[hallcity]

Let me ask a stupid question. We are now struggling to produce the millions of N95 masks needed for medical use. I hope this problem will be solved soon. I've read that prior to Covid-19, N95 masks were inexpensive, costing as little as 50 cents each. They can't be that hard to manufacture. What if we had the manufacturing capacity in the U.S. to produce not just millions of N95 masks a month but tens of billions, enough so that every American could wear one routinely when outside the house. What effect would that have on this epidemic? Could we with reasonable safety start go out to work, attend classes, shop, attend concerts and other performances, attend athletic events, exercise, socialize, etc? I know you can't wear an N95 mask and eat or swim but you could do almost everything else. Could we get on with life while reducing the spread of Covid-19? A vaccine is many months off at best and there is no guarantee one will ever be available. We need a Plan B.

[Jeffrey]

As a New Yorker, I can tell you that the shut down worked and was worth it. A number of our hospitals were bursting and health care workers were working to the point of exhaustion and even death. The shut down in NY really did help flatten the curve and help the hospitals and workers. I honestly don’t know what would have happened if the curve kept rising.

If there is another major flare up, the same thing will happen. Lessons will be learned from the first time around. But areas that are hard hit will have to shut down.

Strongly agree. Unfortunately, I fear the current protesting, in many large cities, is likely to create another major flare up. People in close proximity, for extended periods, frequently screaming. Sure, most are young, but many will visit their elderly relatives during the next week or two.

[budwom]

Let me ask a stupid question. We are now struggling to produce the millions of N95 masks needed for medical use. I hope this problem will be solved soon. I've read that prior to Covid-19, N95 masks were inexpensive, costing as little as 50 cents each. They can't be that hard to manufacture. What if we had the manufacturing capacity in the U.S. to produce not just millions of N95 masks a month but tens of billions, enough so that every American could wear one routinely when outside the house. What effect would that have on this epidemic? Could we with reasonable safety start go out to work, attend classes, shop, attend concerts and other performances, attend athletic events, exercise, socialize, etc? I know you can't wear an N95 mask and eat or swim but you could do almost everything else. Could we get on with life while reducing the spread of Covid-19? A vaccine is many months off at best and there is no guarantee one will ever be available. We need a Plan B.

Every American wearing a mask? I think that ship has sailed, and subsequently sank, with no survivors. I suspect our resident experts would tell us that it would surely help, but it's implausible right now.

[Bluedog]

Let me ask a stupid question. We are now struggling to produce the millions of N95 masks needed for medical use. I hope this problem will be solved soon. I've read that prior to Covid-19, N95 masks were inexpensive, costing as little as 50 cents each. They can't be that hard to manufacture. What if we had the manufacturing capacity in the U.S. to produce not just millions of N95 masks a month but tens of billions, enough so that every American could wear one routinely when outside the house. What effect would that have on this epidemic? Could we with reasonable safety start go out to work, attend classes, shop, attend concerts and other performances, attend athletic events, exercise, socialize, etc? I know you can't wear an N95 mask and eat or swim but you could do almost everything else. Could we get on with life while reducing the spread of Covid-19? A vaccine is many months off at best and there is no guarantee one will ever be available. We need a Plan B.

N95 masks cause users to breathe in 5 to 20% less oxygen. I don't think it's a reasonable expectation to expect "common" people to be able to wear them for extended periods. On top of that, they're hot and humid compared to normal masks. It's one thing having at risk healthcare professionals power through it, but I think you'd see unintended consequences (e.g. people passing out) if N95 use became commonplace for long periods; I think it's just not practical. (Healthy people do apparently adapt to the reduced oxygen level over a certain period, but the problem is the 'unhealthy people' - N95 masks pose a risk, and probably harder to ascertain who is equipped and who is not to endure).

Trying to come up to a solution to this problem:
https://www.fastcompany.com/90509409...lever-solution

[rsvman]

N95 masks cause users to breathe in 5 to 20% less oxygen. I don't think it's a reasonable expectation to expect "common" people to be able to wear them for extended periods. On top of that, they're hot and humid compared to normal masks. It's one thing having at risk healthcare professionals power through it, but I think you'd see unintended consequences (e.g. people passing out) if N95 use became commonplace for long periods; I think it's just not practical. (Healthy people do apparently adapt to the reduced oxygen level over a certain period, but the problem is the 'unhealthy people' - N95 masks pose a risk, and probably harder to ascertain who is equipped and who is not to endure).

Trying to come up to a solution to this problem:
https://www.fastcompany.com/90509409...lever-solution

This.

If you had ever worn an N95 mask, you wouldn't be asking the question. Heck, people are balking at wearing cloth face coverings they can make it their own home with their favorite team insignia on it if they so choose. Face coverings that can be made of soft cotton and that don't really impede the wearer much, if at all.

An N95 is an almost claustrophic event; wearing one for longer than about 25 minutes, for me, is stressful (at best).

[Indoor66]

This.

If you had ever worn an N95 mask, you wouldn't be asking the question. Heck, people are balking at wearing cloth face coverings they can make it their own home with their favorite team insignia on it if they so choose. Face coverings that can be made of soft cotton and that don't really impede the wearer much, if at all.

An N95 is an almost claustrophic event; wearing one for longer than about 25 minutes, for me, is stressful (at best).

I have asthma/copd issues and take/use a cocktail of 6 medications. I can wear an N95 mask for about15 +/- minutes before I am feeling distressed to the point of grabbing for the albuteral. I was in Mass Saturday for about an hour and a half and was using a cotton mask and found myself in difficulty by the end. Masking is not easy for many people.

[YmoBeThere]

Let me ask a stupid question. We are now struggling to produce the millions of N95 masks needed for medical use. I hope this problem will be solved soon. I've read that prior to Covid-19, N95 masks were inexpensive, costing as little as 50 cents each. They can't be that hard to manufacture. What if we had the manufacturing capacity in the U.S. to produce not just millions of N95 masks a month but tens of billions, enough so that every American could wear one routinely when outside the house. What effect would that have on this epidemic? Could we with reasonable safety start go out to work, attend classes, shop, attend concerts and other performances, attend athletic events, exercise, socialize, etc? I know you can't wear an N95 mask and eat or swim but you could do almost everything else. Could we get on with life while reducing the spread of Covid-19? A vaccine is many months off at best and there is no guarantee one will ever be available. We need a Plan B.

Having produced some of the underlying materials for these masks many years ago, I do know that over time the production volumes didn't necessarily increase stateside. While capacity was built here, it didn't keep up with demand. Labor was not a huge component of the final cost of goods sold, but because shipping could be, better to put new capacity in 3rd world locations(China, Brazil, etc.) and ship any excess needed back to the US while trying to build the market in the local market.

And for what it is worth, the resurgence appears to have already started here in Texas.
Annotation 2020-06-01 105109.PNG.jpg

[PackMan97]

N95 masks cause users to breathe in 5 to 20% less oxygen. I don't think it's a reasonable expectation to expect "common" people to be able to wear them for extended periods. On top of that, they're hot and humid compared to normal masks. It's one thing having at risk healthcare professionals power through it, but I think you'd see unintended consequences (e.g. people passing out) if N95 use became commonplace for long periods; I think it's just not practical. (Healthy people do apparently adapt to the reduced oxygen level over a certain period, but the problem is the 'unhealthy people' - N95 masks pose a risk, and probably harder to ascertain who is equipped and who is not to endure).

Trying to come up to a solution to this problem:
https://www.fastcompany.com/90509409...lever-solution

The challenges of wearing N95 masks form the basis of most anti-maskers arguments I have heard. Because an N95 mask may be unhealthy for some people (true), because an N95 mask causes reduced oxygen intake (true), because an N95 maks can cause psychological problems for some people (true)...no one should ever wear any type of nose and mouth covering.

They are right in that an N95 mask is not easy and they are not for everyone. However, to take that and apply it to all face coverings is just wrong.

[Bluedog]

The challenges of wearing N95 masks form the basis of most anti-maskers arguments I have heard. Because an N95 mask may be unhealthy for some people (true), because an N95 mask causes reduced oxygen intake (true), because an N95 maks can cause psychological problems for some people (true)...no one should ever wear any type of nose and mouth covering.

They are right in that an N95 mask is not easy and they are not for everyone. However, to take that and apply it to all face coverings is just wrong.

I agree with you and didn't suggest otherwise. I was not speaking about all face coverings, just specifically N95 masks.

[ArkieDukie]

Having produced some of the underlying materials for these masks many years ago, I do know that over time the production volumes didn't necessarily increase stateside. While capacity was built here, it didn't keep up with demand. Labor was not a huge component of the final cost of goods sold, but because shipping could be, better to put new capacity in 3rd world locations(China, Brazil, etc.) and ship any excess needed back to the US while trying to build the market in the local market.

And for what it is worth, the resurgence appears to have already started here in Texas.
Annotation 2020-06-01 105109.PNG.jpg

FWIW, this does NOT surprise me. The weekend after TX re-opened, 119,000 cars crossed the causeway to Galveston Island. My local friends reported that beaches were very crowded. More recently, the bars re-opened for Memorial Day weekend. Apparently the parking lots and bars themselves were PACKED, whic is even worse than having crowded beaches. So, yeah, not surprised.

Another friend who lives in Carrollton (a burb of Dallas) took a lunchtime trip to the local pharmacy to pick up some medicine. While she was there, a gun toting guy came in to protest the mask order that was in place for the pharmacy. He came in, keeping the gun clearly visible, and walked up and down every aisle, daring people to tell him to put on a mask. Someone called the police and the idiot was arrested.

[dudog84]

These things work. They have been demonstrated to be highly successful in saving lives and also allowing the economy to function in many countries around the world. I won't say we're dead last. We're not dead last. There are other - plenty of other countries worse off than we are on a policy and execution basis. But for a country that should be the best in the world, to be where we are in these areas is almost beyond belief.[/INDENT]

Some people like to throw the word "incredible" around a lot. I used to roll my eyes. Until I thought about the meaning of the word, it's first definition is "impossible to believe". So there are some speaking truth in power. <roll eyes>

P.S. My eyes get a workout. I'm pushing 58 and still don't use readers!

[rsvman]

Some people like to throw the word "incredible" around a lot. I used to roll my eyes. Until I thought about the meaning of the word, it's first definition is "impossible to believe". So there are some speaking truth in power. <roll eyes>

P.S. My eyes get a workout. I'm pushing 58 and still don't use readers!

I'm 61 and halfway to 62 and I still don't use readers. Read all fine print for my wife, who is 6 years my junior. It drives her crazy.

To be fair, part of the reason is that I'm slightly near-sighted, and need glasses for driving/watching TV (but only about 20:40 with some astigmatism). She had much worse vision that me and got laser vision correction surgery, which was great for a while but she is paying for it now.

[dudog84]

I'm 61 and halfway to 62 and I still don't use readers. Read all fine print for my wife, who is 6 years my junior. It drives her crazy.

To be fair, part of the reason is that I'm slightly near-sighted, and need glasses for driving/watching TV (but only about 20:40 with some astigmatism). She had much worse vision that me and got laser vision correction surgery, which was great for a while but she is paying for it now.

I wore glasses since I was 6, terribly near-sighted. Got LASIK about 15 years ago and it might be the best thing I ever did. They told me at the time that I would most probably still need readers in a few years, but so far so good. Sorry for your wife's troubles.

[Bostondevil]

I'm 61 and halfway to 62 and I still don't use readers. Read all fine print for my wife, who is 6 years my junior. It drives her crazy.

To be fair, part of the reason is that I'm slightly near-sighted, and need glasses for driving/watching TV (but only about 20:40 with some astigmatism). She had much worse vision that me and got laser vision correction surgery, which was great for a while but she is paying for it now.

Flip side of that, I only use readers, barely. I use 1.25 because they are easier to find in fun colors than the 1.00s. I can still see long distance just fine. I do not need glasses for driving or watching TV. Consequently, I lose my readers all the time, hence my search for readers in fun colors. It's easier to find the ones with brightly colored frames.

[budwom]

A friend sent us some N95 masks, and while I wear one when I go out, I can't imagine, for example, wearing it to a three hour sporting event.