PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Kdogg]

So much to unpack in these charts but the thing that jumped out to me is that Raleigh is one of the places this is exploding while Durham/Chapel Hill is one of the best cities in the country at slowing the growth.

That's kinda bonkers considering they are basically all part of the same metropolitan area.

Meanwhile. look at those Florida cities. Ouch!

Is it me, or is there something wonky about that second chart?

[devildeac]

Is it me, or is there something wonky about that second chart?

Yep. Several cities appear on both charts!

If you're the fastest and the slowest, does that make you half-fast?

[LegoBatman]

Is it me, or is there something wonky about that second chart?

Yep. Several cities appear on both charts!

If you're the fastest and the slowest, does that make you half-fast?

It just means you can choose to reference the chart that gets your point across

I don't know how this was calculated, but would guess an appearance on both charts means things are still bad but were much worse last week. E.g. last week the projected doubling rate was 5 days and this week it is 15. Still in the top 20 fastest growing, but at a slower rate than last week.

[Bluedog]

I haven't seen this map before.

Harvard University and others have created a new map that shows the risk level for coronavirus in each county of the U.S. The map is color coded for risk level with the red level being above 30 new cases per 100,000 population. The map starts by showing the entire country, but you can choose to search for South Carolina or a combination of states using the search box on the left. You can also expand a state risk to show counties in the list on the right. If you hover over a county you can get a box with more detailed information.

Greenville county, SC where I live is in the red at the moment with a bit over 30/100k.

Linky: Risk Level by State/County

Note: It looks like the site is being swamped at the moment. It was just up on a story on NPR. I managed to get in a play a bit before the site became unresponsive. Here is the NPR story.

Good site, now working for me.

Interestingly, it has the following recommendations based on the color-coded map:

Stay at home orders necessary:
Florida
Arizona
South Carolina

Stay at home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs
Louisiana
Nevada
Mississippi
Texas
Georgia
Alabama
Arkansas
Utah
Tennessee
California
North Carolina
Idaho
Iowa

Is there a single of the above states that are doing what this group of scientists recommend? And that's at the state level. There are far more counties in other states that say stay-at-home orders necessary.

[rsvman]

Yep. Several cities appear on both charts!

If you're the fastest and the slowest, does that make you half-fast?

Not only that, but shouldn't the cities be in order from longest doubling time to shortest? It seems like they are almost in some kind of random arrangement. It's a stochastic chart.

[aimo]

So much to unpack in these charts but the thing that jumped out to me is that Raleigh is one of the places this is exploding while Durham/Chapel Hill is one of the best cities in the country at slowing the growth.

That's kinda bonkers considering they are basically all part of the same metropolitan area.

Not really. Durham has had a mask rule all along, Raleigh just started and is not enforcing. Durham closed down earlier and started re-opening later. Raleigh's nightlife lately has been like nothing is wrong, and the mayor has been a total wuss regarding enforcement.

Plus, a lot of Durham's cases have been in nursing homes and the prison. Not as much community spread. I hope it stays that way.

[Bob Green]

Is it me, or is there something wonky about that second chart?

Well I have never heard of city #19.

[cato]

Well I have never heard of city #19.

Heh. When I was a kid, I told people that my big brother when to college in Raleigh-Durham.

[dudog84]

I think we should start a rumor that COVID-19 causes erectile dysfunction and premature wrinkling.

That water was REALLY cold.

Maybe, they’re trying to get rid of us now, so they don’t have to take care of us later?

They better check out the will situation first.

[camion]

It just means you can choose to reference the chart that gets your point across

I don't know how this was calculated, but would guess an appearance on both charts means things are still bad but were much worse last week. E.g. last week the projected doubling rate was 5 days and this week it is 15. Still in the top 20 fastest growing, but at a slower rate than last week.

Is one a first derivative and the other a second derivative?

[JasonEvans]

I love our country, but history will record that our collective response to this crisis has been abysmal, arrogant, stupid, and irresponsible. There's just no other way to look at it. From our leaders to our citizens, it is almost like we have actively sought out the worst possible response. And as a result, we are here...



-Jason "just so everyone understands, all those other nations on this graph have a combined population of more than 2.6 billion people... about 8 times the population of the US" Evans

[budwom]

Our kids go to bed at night wishing they lived in an advanced country like Tunisia (at least they can visit Europe)

Adam Silver's Orlando bubble is looking a bit permeable...

Never sure what POTUS is up to, but Don Jr. is active on Facebook mocking the wearing of masks...as Gomer Pyle used to say, Surprise, Surprise, Surprise! https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/polit...eck/index.html

Time for a stiff gin and tonic!

Texas gov just mandated masks "in public places" for about 67% of the state...

[Kdogg]

It was speculated by others in this thread but we now have a study showing the mutated European strain is 10 times more infectious. That partly explains the rapid spread in the West. It’s not more deadly thankfully. It seems this is the dominant strain now so the Asian countries have yet to deal with this variant. They where able to control the original strain. It’s inevitable that this strain will find it’s way to China, Japan and South Korea. This isn’t over for anybody.

https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

[dudog84]

I love our country, but history will record that our collective response to this crisis has been abysmal, arrogant, stupid, and irresponsible. There's just no other way to look at it. From our leaders to our citizens, it is almost like we have actively sought out the worst possible response. And as a result, we are here...



-Jason "just so everyone understands, all those other nations on this graph have a combined population of more than 2.6 billion people... about 8 times the population of the US" Evans

Bah! Charts are for pointy-headed geeks. We are winning with tiger blood! Look at us soar!

[MChambers]

It was speculated by others in this thread but we now have a study showing the mutated European strain was 10 times more infectious. That partly explains the rapid spread in the West. It’s not more deadly thankfully. It seems this is the dominant strain now so the Asian countries have yet to deal with this variant. They where able to control the original strain. It’s inevitable that this strain will find it’s way to China, Japan and South Korea. This isn’t over for anybody.

I posted a link earlier this week to a Washington Post article on this. There is some debate as to whether the new variant is actually more infectious. https://www.washingtonpost.com/scien...e/?arc404=true

[OldPhiKap]

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[sagegrouse]

My question is how do we get this in a consumable format for the average refusnik and who will they be willing to hear it from other than elected officials or experts?

Is it me, or is there something wonky about that second chart?

The second chart makes no sense to me at all.

[Nepos]

I suspect the first represents those with the quickest doubling rates right now, while the second shows those with the largest improvement in doubling rate in the past week. So, the AZ cities have very high rates but nowhere near as bad as they were last week.

[Bostondevil]

So much to unpack in these charts but the thing that jumped out to me is that Raleigh is one of the places this is exploding while Durham/Chapel Hill is one of the best cities in the country at slowing the growth.

That's kinda bonkers considering they are basically all part of the same metropolitan area.

Meanwhile. look at those Florida cities. Ouch!

Yeah, I know you went to school at Duke, but as a Durham native, I can tell you that Durham and Raleigh share absolutely nothing except an airport. I hardly ever even went to Raleigh growing up. don't know my way around the city, wouldn't recognize it from pictures, not my town, at all. My high school didn't even play against any Raleigh schools in sports.

[MChambers]

Long form piece by James Fallows in the Atlantic detailing what the US did wrong: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-wrong/613591/