PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[cato]

I guess we're about to embark on thousands of classroom experiments with regards to the virus...with so many variables at play (e.g. amount of virus in a community, class sizes, health and age of teachers and staff, community buy-in to mask wearing, on and on) it may be difficult to draw conclusions for a while...however, I do hope that success and failure stories circulate in a dispassionate fashion (ha) so we can maybe draw some conclusions.

I completely understand why many schools are choosing not to open. I'd argue that Vermont has perhaps the best shot at opening in September , given our small population, little virus in the state (only one or two people hospitalized in the entire state), we're limiting class sizes by 50% (half the kids go to school Monday and Tuesday, the other half Thurs and Friday, Wednesday is a free for all Zoom day) and people are generally buying in to social distancing and mask wearing..

And yet, fully half the population here(via a poll) don't want the schools to open, administrators and teachers are extremely wary...if we can't get it done here with our favorable (and fortunate) characteristics, I have no idea where it can be done.

The most surprising thing to me (if the parent gossip network is to be believed) is that our district is recruiting teachers for the 100% online option, suggesting that more families are opting for remote learning than teachers. I do not know if that is because more teachers believe so strongly in being in person, because they do not like the remote experience (there was a real learning curve for everyone in the spring) or because so many have kids stuck at home and they cannot wait to get back to the workplace, but it was not what I saw coming.

[budwom]

The most surprising thing to me (if the parent gossip network is to be believed) is that our district is recruiting teachers for the 100% online option, suggesting that more families are opting for remote learning than teachers. I do not know if that is because more teachers believe so strongly in being in person, because they do not like the remote experience (there was a real learning curve for everyone in the spring) or because so many have kids stuck at home and they cannot wait to get back to the workplace, but it was not what I saw coming.

Yes, I'm hearing of unprecedented numbers of parents looking to do home schooling this year as well...I've asked a few folks in the area what happens if teachers get sick, no one really knows, it's make it up as you go along.
Maybe your area feels that inevitably, everyone ends up on-line again.
Meanwhile, I have NO idea how parents are going to manage to have someone home three days a week to manage their kids...and what if you have two or three at home but only one computer? Or no broadband (common here)?

[cato]

Yes, I'm hearing of unprecedented numbers of parents looking to do home schooling this year as well...I've asked a few folks in the area what happens if teachers get sick, no one really knows, it's make it up as you go along.
Maybe your area feels that inevitably, everyone ends up on-line again.
Meanwhile, I have NO idea how parents are going to manage to have someone home three days a week to manage their kids...and what if you have two or three at home but only one computer? Or no broadband (common here)?

You and me both, Mr. Womble. But hey — it’s only three weeks away so we got time to figure it out!

[camion]

I've seen ads for Connections Academy recently. Thoughts?

Asking for a friend. The kids are too old; the grandkids are too young.

[AustinDevil]

You raise fair points. I don’t imagine I will persuade you that the “Shut it down, start over, do it right” option may be the most promising — though, as with all options, very painful — path forward. I will, however, repost the link, which purports to be a statement by hundreds/thousands of scientists, doctors, nurses, researchers. These folks think they’re realistic, as do I. The “do it right” part is the key, and undoubtedly less controversial than the phrase “shut it down.”

https://uspirg.org/resources/usp/shu...er-do-it-right

You’re right that we have agonizing choices. I have seen serious, plausible arguments from various perspectives, with the obvious exception of, “It is what it is.”

Here’s a key passage that directly responds to your second question:

”The best thing for the nation is not to reopen as quickly as possible, it’s to save as many lives as possible. And reopening before suppressing the virus isn’t going to help the economy. Economists have gone on record saying that the only way to “restore the economy is to address the pandemic itself,” pointing out that until we find a way to boost testing and develop and distribute a vaccine, open or not, people will not be in the mood to participate.”

Clearly, some people do now, and will continue to, participate in a partial reopening. But a clear majority have thoroughly changed their behavior, participate minimally, and hope desperately for breakthroughs in treatment and a vaccine.

As to a mountain of federal debt, that is a major issue, a bad thing. Yet the new Trump Republican Party has not been faithful, to put it mildly, to its previous commitment to fiscal responsibility.

I appreciate the sincere perspective you bring to this topic, but let's say that we do have the political will and solidarity to effectuate a second shutdown. What makes you expect that the leadership of our country will take the re-set and really ramp up full-scale testing, PPE production, and contact-tracing in an effective, coordinated way?

[sparv]

Yes, I'm hearing of unprecedented numbers of parents looking to do home schooling this year as well...I've asked a few folks in the area what happens if teachers get sick, no one really knows, it's make it up as you go along.
Maybe your area feels that inevitably, everyone ends up on-line again.
Meanwhile, I have NO idea how parents are going to manage to have someone home three days a week to manage their kids...and what if you have two or three at home but only one computer? Or no broadband (common here)?

Our school district has done one thing that seems smart. They have turned school buses into mobile hotspots and will park them in different neighborhoods around town. They have also said they will provide ipads and chromebooks to anyone who needs one, but their order has been delayed due to nationwide shortages.

A neighboring school district has announced that their in-person school will be students in a room, working on the online instruction given by the teacher in the same room. So, the actual instruction for both online and on-campus is exactly the same. I imagine our district will implement something similar.

There are no easy answers. I will likely take my children to work with me, where they will watch a lot of movies while I am working. It's not ideal, and I can definitely see how this would lead people (especially women) to leave the workforce if it continues indefinitely.

[Bluedog]

Clearly, it's been established that Sweden's hands off approach/lack of any shutdown cost lives up to now as their incidence rates and death rates are definitely higher than their neighboring Scandinavian countries. People earlier in this thread also posited that they derived no economic benefit. Based on the below article, it seems Sweden's economy contracted "only" 8.6% compared to 12% for the rest of the Eurozone.
https://www.ft.com/content/fdb6fbe4-...1-06ac2d6fd824

Sweden also had slightly positive growth in Q1 unlike the rest of Europe.

Now I'm NOT saying the lives/economy trade-off was worth it, simply that it seems like a lack of shutdown DID have some impact on the economic activity. Could also be the industry mix of various nations. Sweden is less dependent on tourism than Italy for example.

[mpj96]

How does that work? Our school is the opposite - if you start blended (half in person, half remote), you can probably switch to full remote. But if you start full remote, no guarantees that you can switch to blended. Which to me makes a lot more sense - if they are at capacity in the classrooms, how are they going to add another kid who was previously full remote?

Different strokes for different folks I guess.

They split up the week. Last names A through M can go to school Mon& Tues. Wed. deep clean. Th&Fr last names N through Z.

There are very few going 100% virtual. We plan to do a lot of supplementation at home. Have been at it already all summer. Not really trusting the school system to educate our kids at this point.

I'm taking them at their word - "students can easily transition to in person learning".

[Furniture]

Clearly, it's been established that Sweden's hands off approach/lack of any shutdown cost lives up to now as their incidence rates and death rates are definitely higher than their neighboring Scandinavian countries. People earlier in this thread also posited that they derived no economic benefit. Based on the below article, it seems Sweden's economy contracted "only" 8.6% compared to 12% for the rest of the Eurozone.
https://www.ft.com/content/fdb6fbe4-...1-06ac2d6fd824

Sweden also had slightly positive growth in Q1 unlike the rest of Europe.

Now I'm NOT saying the lives/economy trade-off was worth it, simply that it seems like a lack of shutdown DID have some impact on the economic activity. Could also be the industry mix of various nations. Sweden is less dependent on tourism than Italy for example.

There was a shutdown ( of sorts). They just didn’t social distance... The great thing for Volvo was that the government paid about 45% of everybody’s salary. Many Swedish companies took advantage of that. Socialism sucks...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2171E3

[JasonEvans]

And, for the first time since April, the US has topped 2000 deaths from COVID in a single day.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1291533412893769728

That's from Johns Hopkins, not from Worldometer. I have not been following the JH numbers, but AFP is reporting the number.

Yay team... USA! USA!

[CDu]

And, for the first time since April, the US has topped 2000 deaths from COVID in a single day.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1291533412893769728

That's from Johns Hopkins, not from Worldometer. I have not been following the JH numbers, but AFP is reporting the number.

Yay team... USA! USA!

Yeah, that is interesting, because worldometers has us at like 1260 for today.

[JasonEvans]

Every time you think Covid cannot get any worse...

The Lancet, one of the leading medical publications in the world, has published a study on brain damage in Covid victims. They looked at everything from serious cases to very mild ones. The conclusion... 55% of folks who catch at least a mild case of Covid appear to have suffered some kind of brain damage from it. No way to know yet how bad that damage is or how it manifests in everyone, but the doctors are talking about memory loss and cognitive issues. They think this brain damage is what causes the loss of smell and taste that seems to be fairly common in Covid patients.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/e...228-5/fulltext

[niveklaen]

And, for the first time since April, the US has topped 2000 deaths from COVID in a single day.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1291533412893769728

That's from Johns Hopkins, not from Worldometer. I have not been following the JH numbers, but AFP is reporting the number.

Yay team... USA! USA!

Oddly that tweet lacked a link to its source, so I went to the john hopkins page and dug around and found that they only reported around 1300 deaths today

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

Maybe I am just looking in the wrong place - can anybody find a screenshot/link of john hopkins actually saying we hit 2k deaths today/yesterday?

[Skydog]

Ok, for a more speculative, enjoyable fantastical approach (or is it?): If no vaccine soon who is going to be the first multibillionaire/firm to construct a Covid-free pod-village, complete with school? Basically we are talking NBA or MLS pod, but for regular folk. Or at least for regular folk who can move on a moment’s notice. Anyway this person/company has to buy 500 acres or so, probably only affordable in the West or Midwest, throw up modular housing and/or mobile homes (or invite mobile home owners), put in internet access somehow and open up the town for business. New residents have to go through 10-14 days of monitored quarantine and regular testing, perhaps at a motel/hotel rented for purpose. Teachers get incentivized to move there by discounted housing, if necessary. Schools, gyms, restaurants, intramural sports, stores all can run normally in town. If you leave pod-town you have to go through a new quarantine period before re-entering. No one else allowed in.

I think this Covid-safe village would fill up and be copied quickly. Any of you that rich? Elon, you busy?

[CDu]

Oddly that tweet lacked a link to its source, so I went to the john hopkins page and dug around and found that they only reported around 1300 deaths today

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases

Maybe I am just looking in the wrong place - can anybody find a screenshot/link of john hopkins actually saying we hit 2k deaths today/yesterday?

My guess is that the tweeter looked at total US deaths as of today and compared with yesterday and got 2,000. But perhaps some of those 2,000 were backdated to prior days. The 1300 is much more in line with Worldometers.

[mpj96]

My guess is that the tweeter looked at total US deaths as of today and compared with yesterday and got 2,000. But perhaps some of those 2,000 were backdated to prior days. The 1300 is much more in line with Worldometers.

Good guess. Huge mistake.

[gumbomoop]

... let's say that we do have the political will and solidarity to effectuate a second shutdown. What makes you expect that the leadership of our country will take the re-set and really ramp up full-scale testing, PPE production, and contact-tracing in an effective, coordinated way?

Fair question, tough question. Your willingness to play this scenario out by positing “political will and solidarity” does, I must say, offer a strikingly promising postulation.

I understand “political will and solidarity” to mean an overwhelming consensus [not unanimity] among citizens, local, state, and national representatives, especially Democrats but many Republicans, too. Wouldn’t such an overwhelming chorus fiercely demanding a fundamental change — “start over, do it right” — function to administer shock therapy to the President and his team?

There’s surely been some movement already among early recalcitrants toward the scientific/medical consensus on masks and physical distancing. I infer — do I rightly understand you to have implied? — that “political will and solidarity” denotes a considerably larger momentum, one that now-steadfastly insists on implementing what the medical community asserts as essential: testing, PPE, tracing.

I recognize full well that President Trump and some of his team have taken another approach. Yet as the evidence piles up that that approach hasn’t made, isn’t making, won’t make the virus “just disappear,” what is Trump to do? Continue to shrug, “It is what it is”? True, he’s serenely confident that he knows, and others — the generals, the doctors, the scientists, the governors, the mayors — don’t. But in the face of an overwhelming solidarity, he’ll leak support daily, publicly. It won’t be the Deep State that undercuts him; it will be Republicans, enough, at least, of the selfsame ones who came-home-to-Trump in 2016, but who will accede to the unflinching dictates of “political will and solidarity.”

If that ever, soon, exists.

And I concede that even in the face of solidarity, will, willpower, outraged voters, fleeing Republicans, even the Mandate of Heaven, President Trump might insist that only he knows how to save the country.

[AustinDevil]

Fair question, tough question. Your willingness to play this scenario out by positing “political will and solidarity” does, I must say, offer a strikingly promising postulation.

I understand “political will and solidarity” to mean an overwhelming consensus [not unanimity] among citizens, local, state, and national representatives, especially Democrats but many Republicans, too. Wouldn’t such an overwhelming chorus fiercely demanding a fundamental change — “start over, do it right” — function to administer shock therapy to the President and his team?

There’s surely been some movement already among early recalcitrants toward the scientific/medical consensus on masks and physical distancing. I infer — do I rightly understand you to have implied? — that “political will and solidarity” denotes a considerably larger momentum, one that now-steadfastly insists on implementing what the medical community asserts as essential: testing, PPE, tracing.

I recognize full well that President Trump and some of his team have taken another approach. Yet as the evidence piles up that that approach hasn’t made, isn’t making, won’t make the virus “just disappear,” what is Trump to do? Continue to shrug, “It is what it is”? True, he’s serenely confident that he knows, and others — the generals, the doctors, the scientists, the governors, the mayors — don’t. But in the face of an overwhelming solidarity, he’ll leak support daily, publicly. It won’t be the Deep State that undercuts him; it will be Republicans, enough, at least, of the selfsame ones who came-home-to-Trump in 2016, but who will accede to the unflinching dictates of “political will and solidarity.”

If that ever, soon, exists.

And I concede that even in the face of solidarity, will, willpower, outraged voters, fleeing Republicans, even the Mandate of Heaven, President Trump might insist that only he knows how to save the country.

I believe you inferred my intent correctly. And yes, I do not believe that current leadership will attempt a coordinated, competent response, and that even if they do, it will be very much a repeat of the “hiring of the President’s son-in-law’s college roommate” process.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/how-jared-kushners-secret-testing-plan-went-poof-into-thin-air

[budwom]

Meanwhile, North Paulding High School in Georgia has taken swift and decisive action after the embarrassing photo surfaced of a flock of kids in the hallway, tightly bunched, with precious few masks in sight:

They suspended the sophomore who took the photo...that should fix the problem!

[OldPhiKap]

Meanwhile, North Paulding High School in Georgia has taken swift and decisive action after the embarrassing photo surfaced of a flock of kids in the hallway, tightly bunched, with precious few masks in sight:

They suspended the sophomore who took the photo...that should fix the problem!

The first rule of COVID Club is: don’t talk about COVID Club.