PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[cato]

Great post. The "default assumption" that should have been in place is a great way to frame this.

And as far as moving the goalposts go, here in So Cal, we definitely experienced that from the teachers union. First it was "we're not going back until everyone is vaccinated." Then it was "but you can't make us get vaccinated!" Then it was "we're not going back until the school police is defunded" Then it was "we're not going back until there is no more money allocated to charter schools."

So yes, our public school teachers union, which is one of the largest in the country if not THE largest, attempted to weaponize COVID return in order to push a political agenda wholly unrelated to COVID.

Again I am not generally anti-union and am on the left side of the political spectrum on most matters. But this, to me, was galling.

Here in my part of SoCal things were extremely different. I’m guessing the moderate political leanings of my area helped a lot. People by and large made rational decisions based on the best available info. And reevaluated as better info became available.

Of course, we were also blessed with relatively low levels of virus in the community.

[Bostondevil]

The sample size of vaccine recipients for 1-4 year olds has to be miniscule and not peer-reviewed at this point as well. In other words, we have no idea what the risk of a 1-4 year old dying from a vaccine is, but, yes I imagine it SHOULD be basically non-existent given the risk of death from COVID in that age group is also so small. Has there been any evidence of ANY adult dying from the COVID vaccine? I guess there were the JnJ blood clots where I think one person in the U.S. died.

I said vaccines, not specifically covid vaccines, which aren't approved for 1-4 year olds yet. For all vaccines, we do have an idea of what the mortality risk for 1-4 year olds is. Upthread I mentioned mandating flu shots for the kids - who are known spreaders of flu. Mortality rate from all vaccines is lower than mortality rates for flu. And chicken pox. And polio. And diphtheria. And mumps. And tetanus. You get the idea.

[Bostondevil]

But did you know that an unvaccinated coworker of mine personally knows two people that have died from the vaccine?

I think I did a good job of keeping my poker face on and wrapping up that particular conversation pretty quickly.

I wouldn't have kept my poker face. I tell people all the time that I am a public health professional and if they want to come at me with wankery information, I will ask them to admit that I know more than they do about public health or allow me to tell them exactly how they are doing their jobs wrong, no matter what that job might be and no matter how little I actually do know about doing that job. I'll do it with a smile, of course, but I'll do it. I'm done listening to wankery public health information without challenging it.

[luvdahops]

Yep. Was there a spike or did we start paying more attention? And was the lack of in-person schooling to blame or was it something else? And instead of blaming teachers, all of these school districts should have been clamoring for increased mental health support for their kids. Maybe remote learning with mental health support would have been enough.

There is no question that youth mental health issues have been underdiagnosed historically, and COVID has certainly brought needed attention to that deficiency. But historical inattention would not explain significant increases in frequency and severity of episodes for children with previously diagnosed conditions. Or new diagnoses among children who had been actively screened in the past due to family history, but shown no signs, having depression and/or anxiety clearly triggered by the ramifications of remote and hybrid learning. These were among the most significant growth drivers over the last year+ for the behavioral health companies I work with.

[JStuart]

I wouldn't have kept my poker face. I tell people all the time that I am a public health professional and if they want to come at me with wankery information, I will ask them to admit that I know more than they do about public health or allow me to tell them exactly how they are doing their jobs wrong, no matter what that job might be and no matter how little I actually do know about doing that job. I'll do it with a smile, of course, but I'll do it. I'm done listening to wankery public health information without challenging it.

Blessings on you, BostonDevil! I admire your spirit and approach to the willing disbelievers. When I have had to confront patients or others with vaccine resistance, I like to use the phrase, 'there are more than 500,000 departed souls who would have really liked the vaccine option'. Unfortunately these discussions approach Mark Twain's comments on wrestling with a pig (“Don’t wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” Or his 'attributed' advice on arguing with an idiot; "onlookers may not be able to tell the difference between the two of you")
Another thought; many of the vaccine objectors are alive now to object, as they were vaccinated against polio, smallpox, (see your list in the previous post!)
Best,
JStuart

[mpj96]

Stewart takes something that is an unlikely possibility and makes it sound like it's likely. In short, there's a lot of nuance to this issue, and Stewart missed that nuance entirely.

That's your opinion which you are entitled to hold 100%. As for me, I am a Democrat in the South who has thought the same thing for quite a while. I am glad to see that I am not the only one.

[mpj96]

I wouldn't have kept my poker face. I tell people all the time that I am a public health professional and if they want to come at me with wankery information, I will ask them to admit that I know more than they do about public health or allow me to tell them exactly how they are doing their jobs wrong, no matter what that job might be and no matter how little I actually do know about doing that job. I'll do it with a smile, of course, but I'll do it. I'm done listening to wankery public health information without challenging it.

I don't find that telling people that I know more than they do is particularly effective. Your mileage may vary. At this point if they want to take the risk they have had their chance at protection and any attempt at conversation on the topic us not rational it is faith- based. Everyone knows that vaccines are safer, but some folks don't care because they are determined not to " be scared" or whatever the rationale may be. I am fully vaccinated and so are all members of my immediate family. As for the rest, live and let live. They can get it or refuse as they like. The choice and responsibility for that choice is theirs. Time to get back to living as normal.

[rsvman]

One of the viruses that is going around right now is actually a coronavirus, specifically coronavirus OC43,whuch was also circulating pretty widely in the late fall and early winter of 2019.
And yes, we are seeing a slight uptick in RSV, at a time when it has usually virtually completely died out.
We are not seeing an uptick in SARS-CoV-2, despite an increase in these either respiratory illnesses, which is highly suggestive that the vaccines are working.

[Lord Ash]

There is no question that youth mental health issues have been underdiagnosed historically, and COVID has certainly brought needed attention to that deficiency. But historical inattention would not explain significant increases in frequency and severity of episodes for children with previously diagnosed conditions. Or new diagnoses among children who had been actively screened in the past due to family history, but shown no signs, having depression and/or anxiety clearly triggered by the ramifications of remote and hybrid learning. These were among the most significant growth drivers over the last year+ for the behavioral health companies I work with.

You know what else exacerbates mental health issues? Widespread death amidst a global pandemic. As I said before, you seem to be blaming a symptom, rather than the cause, for the problem.

And thankfully humans are very capable of moving past mental health issues. Death... not as much.

[Bostondevil]

Blessings on you, BostonDevil! I admire your spirit and approach to the willing disbelievers. When I have had to confront patients or others with vaccine resistance, I like to use the phrase, 'there are more than 500,000 departed souls who would have really liked the vaccine option'. Unfortunately these discussions approach Mark Twain's comments on wrestling with a pig (“Don’t wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” Or his 'attributed' advice on arguing with an idiot; "onlookers may not be able to tell the difference between the two of you")
Another thought; many of the vaccine objectors are alive now to object, as they were vaccinated against polio, smallpox, (see your list in the previous post!)
Best,
JStuart

I don't usually have to argue. Once I tell them that if they are going to tell me how to do my job and/or that my experience is immaterial, I get to tell them how to do their job, they usually back off. Of course, this is all a recent development, I haven't had many opportunities. But I am done allowing certain public health misinformation to go unchallenged. I am, however, excellent at challenging. Physically, I am not threatening and my general aura is "Mom". Moms can get by with stuff that comes across as "eat your vegetables" and "wear a bike helmet" that others can't. I am aware of this reality and use it to my advantage when appropriate.

[rsvman]

Interesting new study from England that looked at brain scans before and after Covid-19, with control subjects (without evidence of Covid-19 history) also undergoing "before and after" brain scans. (Obviously, they used a 'convenience sample' of people that had had brain scans for other reason prior to the pandemic; they called them and asked them to come back for another scan.)

What they found was that loss of cortical tissue was often found in Covid-19 survivors, and this loss often involved areas that control smell and taste. Pretty interesting.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle...=3451991&faf=1

[Bostondevil]

I don't find that telling people that I know more than they do is particularly effective. Your mileage may vary. At this point if they want to take the risk they have had their chance at protection and any attempt at conversation on the topic us not rational it is faith- based. Everyone knows that vaccines are safer, but some folks don't care because they are determined not to " be scared" or whatever the rationale may be. I am fully vaccinated and so are all members of my immediate family. As for the rest, live and let live. They can get it or refuse as they like. The choice and responsibility for that choice is theirs. Time to get back to living as normal.

It's not their vaccine choice that I dispute, it's the misinformation. If someone says to me they aren't getting vaccinated and they will never get vaccinated and there is nothing I can say to change their mind. I won't engage. If they tell me that vaccines cause infertility, I'll engage. Or that they got a flu shot but still got the flu. That's the one where I always respond with, yeah, but you aren't dead and that's the point of getting the flu shot.

As for live and let live, c'mon. Think about what you just said. Live and let live? Let live? People who refuse to get vaccinated aren't choosing to let other people live. They are choosing to be potential spreaders of a deadly disease. That's not live and let live. Do we have a responsibility to our fellow humans or not? I would hope it is obvious that my answer to that question is yes. It is because I feel this responsibility that I engage.

For the record, I don't find that telling people who feel passionately about something to live and live is particularly effective. You mileage may vary.

[Bostondevil]

There is no question that youth mental health issues have been underdiagnosed historically, and COVID has certainly brought needed attention to that deficiency. But historical inattention would not explain significant increases in frequency and severity of episodes for children with previously diagnosed conditions. Or new diagnoses among children who had been actively screened in the past due to family history, but shown no signs, having depression and/or anxiety clearly triggered by the ramifications of remote and hybrid learning. These were among the most significant growth drivers over the last year+ for the behavioral health companies I work with.

It most certainly could. You do not find things you aren't looking for. Are we looking for these episodes more during the pandemic? I think we probably are but I don't know for sure. If I am correct, that could explain the entire difference. Or not. It might explain some of the difference. Remote learning might explain some of the difference. Other factors might explain some of the difference. The only part of your previous statements that I have challenged is that the noted increases in mental health episodes can not be solely laid at the feet of teachers and teachers unions and I will continue to argue that. I am, however, willing to agree to disagree with you on that point. I will drop this side discussion if you will.

[JasonEvans]

But did you know that an unvaccinated coworker of mine personally knows two people that have died from the vaccine?

The number of people who say they "know someone who got sick from the vaccine" and then admit that rather than "knowing" the victim they "heard about someone" is staggering.

Simone knows the truth about vaccine deaths (cue in to the :26 mark) --

[luvdahops]

You know what else exacerbates mental health issues? Widespread death amidst a global pandemic. As I said before, you seem to be blaming a symptom, rather than the cause, for the problem.

And thankfully humans are very capable of moving past mental health issues. Death... not as much.

I am merely relaying the views of behavioral health professionals from the organizations I work with.

But if you’re asking me my opinion as to which was a bigger factor between 1) obsessing over the national death count and other pandemic theater or 2) the impact to their own lives resulting from the irregular school experience, it’s the latter in a landslide.

Is it really so hard to concede that maybe, just maybe, your district went overboard in terms of its response?

[-jk]

I am merely relaying the views of behavioral health professionals from the organizations I work with.

But if you’re asking me my opinion as to which was a bigger factor between 1) obsessing over the national death count and other pandemic theater or 2) the impact to their own lives resulting from the irregular school experience, it’s the latter in a landslide.

Is it really so hard to concede that maybe, just maybe, your district went overboard in terms of its response?

It's a really tough call, with no right answers. Around me, there are a lot of old school buildings with lousy HVAC. Running at full capacity pre-vax would have worried me. There are a lot of older teachers, and students and staff with vulnerable family members. Schools have so many people packed into so little space...

-jk

[Rich]

The number of people who say they "know someone who got sick from the vaccine" and then admit that rather than "knowing" the victim they "heard about someone" is staggering.]

I've had people challenge me by asking whether I "actually" know someone who died from Covid, as if it's a big hoax, those 600k numbers are bogus, and since they "actually" don't know anyone then it can't be real. In fact, I tell them, I do, but that has little impact, if any. Sigh.

[MChambers]

I've had people challenge me by asking whether I "actually" know someone who died from Covid, as if it's a big hoax, those 600k numbers are bogus, and since they "actually" don't know anyone then it can't be real. In fact, I tell them, I do, but that has little impact, if any. Sigh.

It's very discouraging. On another forum (not related to Duke basketball), I had someone claim that they lost their hearing after getting one of the vaccines and that this was a real problem that nobody was talking about. Another person chimed in that none of the vaccines had been "approved" and we were all guinea pigs.

I pointed out that all three vaccines in the US have been authorized by the FDA, that I, in fact, was a "guinea pig", having been in one of the J&J trials, and that if somebody wanted to be part of a science experiment they should get infected with covid-19. I don't expect to change any minds, of course, but I didn't want the misinformation to sit out there uncorrected.

[budwom]

It's very discouraging. On another forum (not related to Duke basketball), I had someone claim that they lost their hearing after getting one of the vaccines and that this was a real problem that nobody was talking about. Another person chimed in that none of the vaccines had been "approved" and we were all guinea pigs.

I pointed out that all three vaccines in the US have been authorized by the FDA, that I, in fact, was a "guinea pig", having been in one of the J&J trials, and that if somebody wanted to be part of a science experiment they should get infected with covid-19. I don't expect to change any minds, of course, but I didn't want the misinformation to sit out there uncorrected.

Come next Fall and Winter, I suspect a lot of these folks will get a second shot (so to speak) at contracting Covid...can't see how minimally vaccinated states will escape this fate.

[Bluedog]

Come next Fall and Winter, I suspect a lot of these folks will get a second shot (so to speak) at contracting Covid...can't see how minimally vaccinated states will escape this fate.

I'm actually pretty shocked that states like TN or SC at 34% and 37% vaccinated are near the bottom of cases right now at 1 or 2 per 100,000. I don't see clear correlation AT THE MOMENT between vaccinated % and case counts but surely agree with you that those states SHOULD be more susceptible to a surge later when it comes if the vaccine percentages stay stagnant. Maybe it's also because in states where vaccinations are low, testing is low. But you'd see it in the hospitalizations/death counts at least I'd imagine.