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  1. #13281
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    February 25 Results

    Well, the 25 percent weekly decline has come to a screeching halt. Seven-day averages for both new cases and deaths are quite flat -- 70,000 or so new cases per day and 2,000 or so deaths per day -- all seven-day averages from Worldometer. Measured over the last few days.

    Interested to see what happens now.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  2. #13282
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Well, the 25 percent weekly decline has come to a screeching halt. Seven-day averages for both new cases and deaths are quite flat -- 70,000 or so new cases per day and 2,000 or so deaths per day -- all seven-day averages from Worldometer. Measured over the last few days.

    Interested to see what happens now.
    It did go lower than I thought it would this month. I was expecting a somewhat higher plateau.

    -jk

  3. #13283
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Well, the 25 percent weekly decline has come to a screeching halt. Seven-day averages for both new cases and deaths are quite flat -- 70,000 or so new cases per day and 2,000 or so deaths per day -- all seven-day averages from Worldometer. Measured over the last few days.

    Interested to see what happens now.
    Has the Super-Bowl-Super-Spreader-bump come and gone yet?

  4. #13284
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Has the Super-Bowl-Super-Spreader-bump come and gone yet?
    I think the Tampa surge may have halted the "decline momentum." We'll see over the next few days.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  5. #13285
    Part of it is Texas being nearly back to full reporting.

  6. #13286
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Has the Super-Bowl-Super-Spreader-bump come and gone yet?
    We won't fully know until Frito Lay files their latest Cheetos sales figures...

  7. #13287
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    We are making a bad mistake in south carolina.
    Lifting curfew for bars plus other restrictions.
    To soon for that i believe.

  8. #13288
    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    We are making a bad mistake in south carolina.
    Lifting curfew for bars plus other restrictions.
    To soon for that i believe.
    They are considering lifting mandates here also.

  9. #13289
    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    We are making a bad mistake in south carolina.
    Lifting curfew for bars plus other restrictions.
    To soon for that i believe.
    I just saw that SC is #2 in most cases per 100,000 (RI is #1).

    I would like to see 5-year olds be back allowed in school before lifting bar curfews....(A bit tongue in cheek as I recognize they probably are in SC).

  10. #13290
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I just saw that SC is #2 in most cases per 100,000 (RI is #1).

    I would like to see 5-year olds be back allowed in school before lifting bar curfews...(A bit tongue in cheek as I recognize they probably are in SC).
    Yes they have been back two weeks.
    Our distribution of vaccinations is sketchy also.we are eithet short of vaccine or people arent scheduling when they should. They want to do it when its convenient for them.

    This is something you do when its available regardless .

    I have seen a few say well i want to go on friday or sat .
    Then well i can only get one appointment
    Wanting thier spouse with them.

    Thr idea of clots on my lungs scares the begebus out of me . I do not want any part of that what so ever.

  11. #13291
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    We are making a bad mistake in south carolina.
    Lifting curfew for bars plus other restrictions.
    To soon for that i believe.
    Ditto for NC. IMHO, I'd have waited another 30-60 days.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  12. #13292

    Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine can now be stored at higher temperatures than before.

    Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Allows More Flexible Storage, Transportation Conditions for Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine

    Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that it is allowing undiluted frozen vials of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine to be transported and stored at conventional temperatures commonly found in pharmaceutical freezers for a period of up to two weeks. This reflects an alternative to the preferred storage of the undiluted vials in an ultra-low temperature freezer between -80ºC to -60ºC (-112ºF to -76ºF). The change is being reflected in updates to the Fact Sheet for Healthcare Providers Administering Vaccine (Vaccination Providers).



    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...ditions-pfizer

  13. #13293
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Covid-19: DNA from Neanderthals Affects Vulnerability to Coronavirus

    So your Neanderthal ancestry can either help or hurt with respect to COVID-19 depending on which version of the genes you have. All of us Neanderthals out there, we know who we are.

    How do we get our Neanderthal genes checked?

    Linky

    Neanderthal-pic.jpg

  14. #13294
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Good news on the vaccine front in the US. The FDA's committee advisors have reviewed the JnJ data and state that it is safe and effective. The committee will meet on Friday to decide on emergency authorization (they will authorize). At that point, then early next week we should start seeing distribution of the vaccine for use.

    Now, the caveat here is that JnJ doesn't have a large supply ready. So we won't get a ton of doses yet. But the good news on the distribution front is that Pfizer, Moderna, and JnJ have committed to providing 240 million doses by the end of March. 20 million of those are JnJ, the other 220 million are from Pfizer and Moderna.

    Obviously, that's still not enough to fully vaccinate even half of the US adult population. But it would represent a HUGE chunk of the US population, especially considering how many folks will refuse to get vaccinated.
    I would recommend that Jason or a Mod link this Video from Dr. Ohl to the Locked Sticky Important Covid Info thread:

    https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/...973&ref=search

    The first 15 Minutes of the Video are extremely high yield updates and predictions. It's also worth watching the last 20 minutes of FAQ IMO. For the middle portion he largely just discusses his opinions on what vaccinated people should and should not feel comfortable doing. I watched it all, but you could skip the middle portion or even the end if you have less time.

    So many great updates and predictions, I can't summarize them all. It's very optimistic. He's borderline giddy optimistic about defeating Covid as far as how measured good ID doctors are about predicting these things.

    -- He expects Moderna/Pfizer to ramp up their production of supply of vaccine by 10 TIMES or more over the month of March. This is just huge as it's been supply of vaccine limiting distribution for weeks. By April, there will be much more vaccine supply.

    --J & J Vaccine will also be a player in March, and they will ramp up their vaccine production and supply more by the end of March as CDu noted. The J & J vaccine will be 1 shot, and it can be stored in a normal freezer. He talks some about the J & J vaccine. The J & J DNA Adeonvirus-vectored vaccine, for example, does NOT have the same level of fever, fatigue, muscle aches, soreness during the first few days as the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/Moderna). Dr. Ohl echoes exactly what rsvman said several weeks ago - DON'T worry about which vaccine you get. Take the vaccine that is available, and Dr. Ohl talked like they will give the particular vaccine they have in stock at that time, so there may not exactly be a choice. Bottom line - all 3 of these vaccines are safe and effective at preventing death, hospitalization, severe Covid, moderate Covid, and significantly reducing transmission.

    --He predicts lots of timelines (NC specifically, but some of these later ones are somewhat generalizable)- teachers, firemen, grocery store workers etc eligible for vaccine in March; More High-Risk people under 65 in April; and Anybody who wants a vaccine age 18 and older eligible in May. He predicts everyone who wants a vaccine 18 and older will be able to have gotten it by mid July. Folks with appointments scheduled out further now (like appointment in May) will have their appointment moved up much sooner as this vaccine supply dramatically increases. Adolescents age 12 and older are being studied now and he predicts could get the vaccine late Summer. Children age 6-12 I believe are being studied in UK.

    --He says that updating the vaccine for mutants is not going to be starting all over. These updates do not have to go through full clinical trials because they already have shown the vaccine is safe. They can just tweak the mRNA to cover the variant, show that it produces neutralizing antibodies to the variant, and then get it right into production. He does expect folks to need a Covid booster every so often, maybe every few years. But he explains how the current vaccines are safe and effective now against the current variant (especially UK and protects against death, severe disease, and hospitalization in the others).
    Last edited by richardjackson199; 02-27-2021 at 10:47 AM.

  15. #13295

    Vaccine Supply

    I have received 2 Pfizer shots as has my wife.
    I got a text from CVS the they had "hundreds" of doses with a link to schedule. I went as far as seeing that I could schedule at a convenient location today.
    I got an email from a local hospital that they had vaccine with a link to schedule. Did not try it.

    My guess is that in my part of LA county seniors have been well vaccinated.

    SoCal

  16. #13296
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    I would recommend that Jason or a Mod link this Video from Dr. Ohl to the Locked Sticky Important Covid Info thread:

    https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/...973&ref=search

    The first 15 Minutes of the Video are extremely high yield updates and predictions. It's also worth watching the last 20 minutes of FAQ IMO. For the middle portion he largely just discusses his opinions on what vaccinated people should and should not feel comfortable doing. I watched it all, but you could skip the middle portion or even the end if you have less time.

    So many great updates and predictions, I can't summarize them all. It's very optimistic. He's borderline giddy optimistic about defeating Covid as far as how measured good ID doctors are about predicting these things.

    -- He expects Moderna/Pfizer to ramp up their production of supply of vaccine by 10 TIMES or more over the month of March. This is just huge as it's been supply of vaccine limiting distribution for weeks. By April, there will be much more vaccine supply.

    --J & J Vaccine will also be a player in March, and they will ramp up their vaccine production and supply more by the end of March as CDu noted. The J & J vaccine will be 1 shot, and it can be stored in a normal freezer. He talks some about the J & J vaccine. The J & J DNA Adeonvirus-vectored vaccine, for example, does NOT have the same level of fever, fatigue, muscle aches, soreness during the first few days as the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/Moderna). Dr. Ohl echoes exactly what rsvman said several weeks ago - DON'T worry about which vaccine you get. Take the vaccine that is available, and Dr. Ohl talked like they will give the particular vaccine they have in stock at that time, so there may not exactly be a choice. Bottom line - all 3 of these vaccines are safe and effective at preventing death, hospitalization, severe Covid, moderate Covid, and significantly reducing transmission.

    --He predicts lots of timelines (NC specifically, but some of these later ones are somewhat generalizable)- teachers, firemen, grocery store workers etc eligible for vaccine in March; More High-Risk people under 65 in April; and Anybody who wants a vaccine age 18 and older eligible in May. He predicts everyone who wants a vaccine 18 and older will be able to have gotten it by mid July. Folks with appointments scheduled out further now (like appointment in May) will have their appointment moved up much sooner as this vaccine supply dramatically increases. Adolescents age 12 and older are being studied now and he predicts could get the vaccine late Summer. Children age 6-12 I believe are being studied in UK.

    --He says that updating the vaccine for mutants is not going to be starting all over. These updates do not have to go through full clinical trials because they already have shown the vaccine is safe. They can just tweak the mRNA to cover the variant, show that it produces neutralizing antibodies to the variant, and then get it right into production. He does expect folks to need a Covid booster every so often, maybe every few years. But he explains how the current vaccines are safe and effective now against the current variant (especially UK and protects against death, severe disease, and hospitalization in the others).
    Awesome news, and it's time to start talking about how we share our surplus with the world. Getting the US vaccinated is not enough.

  17. #13297
    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    Covid-19: DNA from Neanderthals Affects Vulnerability to Coronavirus

    So your Neanderthal ancestry can either help or hurt with respect to COVID-19 depending on which version of the genes you have. All of us Neanderthals out there, we know who we are.

    How do we get our Neanderthal genes checked?

    Linky

    Neanderthal-pic.jpg
    DNA sequencing sites like 23andMe will tell you how much Neanderthal DNA you have.

    That study is also interesting because many news reports and local officials have repeatedly stated that being a minority is a risk factor (and typically that's referring to Black and Hispanic Americans as those are the largest groups), but from that article, sounds like being of African descent actually affords some genetic ADVANTAGE given the lack of the "bad immunity" Neanderthal DNA from those regions.

    That study suggests that those of South Asian descent (particularly Bangladeshi) would be of greater risk. Although Bangladesh's numbers are quite tame (could be due to lack of testing). Of course, COVID has impacted minority communities more in this country, but seems like it's because of how race correlates to other risk factors (co-morbidities, access to healthcare, etc.) rather than genetic differences that cause increased risk. I suppose this makes some sense as Africa has largely been spared despite not widespread quality healthcare, but those countries have much lower rates of obesity than the US. South Africa has been the hardest hit, and has more citizens of European descent.

    Although don't want to extrapolate too much from it as seems like Neanderthal DNA may lead to slight differences but other factors clearly play a much larger role (i.e. behaviors, prevelance of co-morbidities, age).

  18. #13298
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    Dr. Ohl echoes exactly what rsvman said several weeks ago - DON'T worry about which vaccine you get. Take the vaccine that is available, and Dr. Ohl talked like they will give the particular vaccine they have in stock at that time, so there may not exactly be a choice. Bottom line - all 3 of these vaccines are safe and effective at preventing death, hospitalization, severe Covid, moderate Covid, and significantly reducing transmission.
    Thanks for the link. I didn't make it all the way through but did hear the part where he discussed the differences between the vaccines. Perhaps I should go back in this thread and re-read what rsvman wrote also. But before I do that, I will say that in listening to the messaging from Dr. Ohl, even though he tried to address the issue head on, I'll give him a D+ on making the case for J&J over the mRNA vaccines. As they are infectious disease experts and not economists or marketers, I don't fault them. They view the situation a bit differently than the average self-interested person.

    So, this is the issue as I see it. Up to this point, the mRNA vaccines with their 95% efficacy are being viewed like this:

    764A3086-1-640x354.jpg
    (2020 Corvette for those that don't know, incredible car by the way both in looks and I hear in driving. Many car aficionados are shocked that GM could produce such a soul stirring product)

    The J&J vaccine with its 70% efficacy looks like this in comparison.

    Malibu.jpg
    (2020 Chevy Malibu, a good car that does what you need it to do, though CR says the reliability appears to have slipped from its very reliable '14-'15 models)

    In the vaccine scenario, these vehicles come at no cost to the purchaser, so one can have a Corvette or a Malibu. Which would you take for the price of $0?

    There are obviously lots of complicating factors such as availability, this analogy was built on the simple premise that performance is the only criteria to evaluate on. But that is the second order issue that occurs when 95% efficacy rates pop up first and that is used to convince vaccine skeptics that they should get it. Also, glossing over mild and moderate cases may serve the focus of public health and infectious disease experts with the laudable goal of reducing healthcare system stress, it doesn't always square with individual preference. This isn't a problem unique to the US:

    Merkel says she won't take AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine because she's too old, as 1.4 million jabs are left unused

    Thomas Colson, Feb 26, 2021, 6:34 AM

    The chancellor said she would not get the vaccine because it had not been approved for people over 65 in Germany.

    "I am 66 years old and do not belong to the recommended group for AstraZeneca," she told the paper.

    Recent trials in Scotland have linked AstraZeneca's vaccine with a dramatic drop in the risk of hospitalization among older people.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/ange...vaccine-2021-2


    Africa not 'walking away' from AstraZeneca vaccine, CDC says

    By Alexander Winning, Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo

    JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The African Union (AU) will not be “walking away” from AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine but will target its use in countries that have not reported cases of the variant dominant in South Africa, the head of its disease control body said on Thursday.

    The comments come after South Africa paused the rollout of the vaccine because of preliminary trial data showing it offered minimal protection against mild to moderate disease caused by the 501Y.V2 variant dominant in the country.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2AB0Q4

  19. #13299
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    J&J vs. mRNA vaccines

    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Thanks for the link. I didn't make it all the way through but did hear the part where he discussed the differences between the vaccines. Perhaps I should go back in this thread and re-read what rsvman wrote also. But before I do that, I will say that in listening to the messaging from Dr. Ohl, even though he tried to address the issue head on, I'll give him a D+ on making the case for J&J over the mRNA vaccines. As they are infectious disease experts and not economists or marketers, I don't fault them. They view the situation a bit differently than the average self-interested person.

    So, this is the issue as I see it. Up to this point, the mRNA vaccines with their 95% efficacy are being viewed like this:

    764A3086-1-640x354.jpg
    (2020 Corvette for those that don't know, incredible car by the way both in looks and I hear in driving. Many car aficionados are shocked that GM could produce such a soul stirring product)

    The J&J vaccine with its 70% efficacy looks like this in comparison.

    Malibu.jpg
    (2020 Chevy Malibu, a good car that does what you need it to do, though CR says the reliability appears to have slipped from its very reliable '14-'15 models)

    In the vaccine scenario, these vehicles come at no cost to the purchaser, so one can have a Corvette or a Malibu. Which would you take for the price of $0?

    There are obviously lots of complicating factors such as availability, this analogy was built on the simple premise that performance is the only criteria to evaluate on. But that is the second order issue that occurs when 95% efficacy rates pop up first and that is used to convince vaccine skeptics that they should get it. Also, glossing over mild and moderate cases may serve the focus of public health and infectious disease experts with the laudable goal of reducing healthcare system stress, it doesn't always square with individual preference. This isn't a problem unique to the US:

    Merkel says she won't take AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine because she's too old, as 1.4 million jabs are left unused

    Thomas Colson, Feb 26, 2021, 6:34 AM

    The chancellor said she would not get the vaccine because it had not been approved for people over 65 in Germany.

    "I am 66 years old and do not belong to the recommended group for AstraZeneca," she told the paper.

    Recent trials in Scotland have linked AstraZeneca's vaccine with a dramatic drop in the risk of hospitalization among older people.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/ange...vaccine-2021-2


    Africa not 'walking away' from AstraZeneca vaccine, CDC says

    By Alexander Winning, Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo

    JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The African Union (AU) will not be “walking away” from AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine but will target its use in countries that have not reported cases of the variant dominant in South Africa, the head of its disease control body said on Thursday.

    The comments come after South Africa paused the rollout of the vaccine because of preliminary trial data showing it offered minimal protection against mild to moderate disease caused by the 501Y.V2 variant dominant in the country.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2AB0Q4
    From what I've read (and I've read quite a bit about the J&J vaccine because I am participating in a two dose trial of the J&J vaccine), the 95% versus 70% is not a valid comparison, primarily because the J&J vaccine was tested in different locations, including South Africa and Latin America, and at different times, so the J&J vaccine almost certainly was tested to a greater degree against some of the new variants that are so concerning. But I agree that non-expert people are thinking about the comparison the way you suggest.

  20. #13300
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Thanks for the link. I didn't make it all the way through but did hear the part where he discussed the differences between the vaccines. Perhaps I should go back in this thread and re-read what rsvman wrote also. But before I do that, I will say that in listening to the messaging from Dr. Ohl, even though he tried to address the issue head on, I'll give him a D+ on making the case for J&J over the mRNA vaccines. As they are infectious disease experts and not economists or marketers, I don't fault them. They view the situation a bit differently than the average self-interested person.

    So, this is the issue as I see it. Up to this point, the mRNA vaccines with their 95% efficacy are being viewed like this:

    764A3086-1-640x354.jpg
    (2020 Corvette for those that don't know, incredible car by the way both in looks and I hear in driving. Many car aficionados are shocked that GM could produce such a soul stirring product)

    The J&J vaccine with its 70% efficacy looks like this in comparison.

    Malibu.jpg
    (2020 Chevy Malibu, a good car that does what you need it to do, though CR says the reliability appears to have slipped from its very reliable '14-'15 models)

    In the vaccine scenario, these vehicles come at no cost to the purchaser, so one can have a Corvette or a Malibu. Which would you take for the price of $0?

    There are obviously lots of complicating factors such as availability, this analogy was built on the simple premise that performance is the only criteria to evaluate on. But that is the second order issue that occurs when 95% efficacy rates pop up first and that is used to convince vaccine skeptics that they should get it. Also, glossing over mild and moderate cases may serve the focus of public health and infectious disease experts with the laudable goal of reducing healthcare system stress, it doesn't always square with individual preference. This isn't a problem unique to the US:

    Merkel says she won't take AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine because she's too old, as 1.4 million jabs are left unused

    Thomas Colson, Feb 26, 2021, 6:34 AM

    The chancellor said she would not get the vaccine because it had not been approved for people over 65 in Germany.

    "I am 66 years old and do not belong to the recommended group for AstraZeneca," she told the paper.

    Recent trials in Scotland have linked AstraZeneca's vaccine with a dramatic drop in the risk of hospitalization among older people.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/ange...vaccine-2021-2


    Africa not 'walking away' from AstraZeneca vaccine, CDC says

    By Alexander Winning, Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo

    JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The African Union (AU) will not be “walking away” from AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine but will target its use in countries that have not reported cases of the variant dominant in South Africa, the head of its disease control body said on Thursday.

    The comments come after South Africa paused the rollout of the vaccine because of preliminary trial data showing it offered minimal protection against mild to moderate disease caused by the 501Y.V2 variant dominant in the country.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2AB0Q4
    There are no straight-line cut-offs in biology. It’s amazing to me that she would turn down the shot at the age of 66 because it was only tested up to age 65. What huge physiologic and biologic change occurs on one’s 66th birthday? Unbelievable.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

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