PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I mean, I sure hope we’re not witnessing the early days of a new kind of “civil war.”

Jokes aside (not sure if you are or not, given the context) the level of polarization and division in our country is incredibly concerning. The prospect of another quarantine lockdown would not make this better. Very scary to me, given the level of passion and emotion involved on both sides. Both sides feel righteousness for very disparate reasons. It's not pretty.

[TruBlu]

We ate out (a rare occurrence) yesterday. An elderly, obese couple came in without masks and were escorted to their table. They refused to sit down until their table and seats were completely wiped down with sanitizer. If they are that concerned, where the heck was their masks?

[budwom]

We ate out (a rare occurrence) yesterday. An elderly, obese couple came in without masks and were escorted to their table. They refused to sit down until their table and seats were completely wiped down with sanitizer. If they are that concerned, where the heck was their masks?

the dry cleaners?

[cato]

You’re right. I just listened to the video. He’s usually quoted as having said “couldn’t” but he clearly says “could.” I should have known better than to believe he used proper syntax while cursing on live TV. Shocking he didn’t say it in the third person.

Either way, too many Floridians don’t seem bothered at all by what’s happening with covid in their state.

Perhaps the syntax was correct. After all, if there is something I could give about UNC . . .

[Bostondevil]

Thanks for this. When you work out the math, it doesn't seem too bad. I do worry, however, about the possibility that covid-19 causes brain damage in a significant portion of the people who are infected, especially in people who have long covid. I guess we won't really know whether vaccination protects against covid-19 related brain damage until we have a lot more data.

Yes, that's true. We are going to be studying this disease for a long time. My prediction, though, is that vaccinated people will fare better than unvaccinated people in everything.

[dudog84]

Thanks for this. When you work out the math, it doesn't seem too bad. I do worry, however, about the possibility that covid-19 causes brain damage in a significant portion of the people who are infected, especially in people who have long covid. I guess we won't really know whether vaccination protects against covid-19 related brain damage until we have a lot more data.

How are we going to be able to tell the difference before/after in the current circumstances?

[OldPhiKap]

I mean, I sure hope we’re not witnessing the early days of a new kind of “civil war.”

Sporks to you Doctor. AW 😁

I picture AW as the Shelby Foote of the thread.

[MChambers]

Yes, that's true. We are going to be studying this disease for a long time. My prediction, though, is that vaccinated people will fare better than unvaccinated people in everything.

Hope you are right. Here's a concerning study. Of course, it doesn't address vaccinated folks:

"Our study shows that even otherwise asymptomatic COVID-19 subjects have cognitive deficits in certain subdomains and suggests the need for a detailed psychometric assessment especially in the elderly population."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7883942/

[Bostondevil]

Hope you are right. Here's a concerning study. Of course, it doesn't address vaccinated folks:

"Our study shows that even otherwise asymptomatic COVID-19 subjects have cognitive deficits in certain subdomains and suggests the need for a detailed psychometric assessment especially in the elderly population."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7883942/

Want me to do the math for you again? I am starting to think you are an alarmist. This study included 93 patients who had asymptomatic covid and 102 patients who have not had covid. Overall, the 2 groups did not show differences in cognitive scores, so, since these authors wanted to get the study published, they looked at sub-scores in the cognitive tests. They got some significant p-values there. Then they show that the older covid patients scored significantly lower than younger covid patients while older non-covid patients did not score significantly lower than younger non-covid patients. At this point, the numbers of study subjects is getting rather small, there were 18 older covid patients and 12 older non-covid patients. But, once they found that age mattered in this rather small group of study subjects, did they then go back and age-adjust their analysis of subscores? No, they did not. Did they discuss or adjust for any other factors that are known to affect cognitive abilities (where we have lots of data), factors like alcohol and marijuana use in adolescence? Other co-morbidities, especially ones that are known to affect cognitive abilities? Did they have any kind of baseline measure for these people - I mean, what were their cognitive scores pre-covid? It is entirely possible that the cognitive test sub-scores of these subjects was lower before any of them contracted covid. Do we need to study these things further? Yes, but when we do, we need to do a much, much, much better job than these researchers have done.

This article tries to offer limitations but if the authors think the only limitation of this study is small sample size, they must have skipped a lot of lectures in their Research Methods for Medical Professionals class. I mean, this paragraph from their discussion section is quite a leap:

"From our findings, it may be suggested that people employed in highly intellectual occupations might fall short of their work requirements if they have CoViD infection even asymptomatically. This is pertinent as doctors and medical personnel who are at a very high risk for the infection come under this category and their mental health condition is paramount to every medical strategy against CoVID 19."

Seriously? They think this study suggests that? OMG.

Here is the actual discussion section for this study: We found in a small group a patients enough evidence to recommend, moving forward, that the long term cognitive effects of covid 19 need to be studied alongside other long term effects. That's it. That's all this study found.

[Furniture]

Here in High Point NC. I Picked up pizza form Maddios last night. The restaurant was packed with about 95% non masked. This morning I went to both Lowe’s and Home Depot. Same thing.
Also I have been dealing with an exposure in the office this week. One of my team had a small party last weekend for her birthday. All ten people attending were vaccinated. On Monday he father travelled back to his home state and by Wednesday he wasn’t feeling well. he tested positive. My team member got tested on Friday and she is now confirmed positive. Both of them are feeling fine with cold like symptoms.
my conclusion is that a LOT of people are going to get infected and quickly.

[SouthernDukie]

Jokes aside (not sure if you are or not, given the context) the level of polarization and division in our country is incredibly concerning. The prospect of another quarantine lockdown would not make this better. Very scary to me, given the level of passion and emotion involved on both sides. Both sides feel righteousness for very disparate reasons. It's not pretty.

Yep. Just had a guy in church this morning tell me that you absolutely cannot die from Covid. He said it with absolute certainty, and even had a derisive smile and laugh as he walked away. And he is not alone in his belief. Many of my fellow Floridians absolutely do not believe the virus is in any way serious.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Three of the four Vikings QBs are in Covid protocol. From the tone of this article, it sounds like the only one who isn't is the only one who is vaccinated. The Vikings coach makes it very clear how he feels about his quarterbacks, and people in general, who aren't vaccinated.

Among his quotes:

"I'm frustrated with, not just my football players who won't get vaccinated, I'm frustrated with everybody."

"Jake's really smart. He's vaccinated," Zimmer said, via the Star Tribune. "That helps to be the backup. So, as we move forward here, he's going to get a ton of reps [Saturday night]. I don't about saying, 'It's going to go a long way,' because we've still got a lot of camp to go, but we'll see. He's out there. He's available. That's important. It's important to be available when you're playing football, a team sport."

https://sports.yahoo.com/minnesota-v...001326820.html

I also thought that this meme sums things up well (again, this does not apply to everyone, but it applies to a lot of people, including my first cousin):

Vax Research.jpg

[bundabergdevil]

Three of the four Vikings QBs are in Covid protocol. From the tone of this article, it sounds like the only one who isn't is the only one who is vaccinated. The Vikings coach makes it very clear how he feels about his quarterbacks, and people in general, who aren't vaccinated.

Among his quotes:

"I'm frustrated with, not just my football players who won't get vaccinated, I'm frustrated with everybody."

"Jake's really smart. He's vaccinated," Zimmer said, via the Star Tribune. "That helps to be the backup. So, as we move forward here, he's going to get a ton of reps [Saturday night]. I don't about saying, 'It's going to go a long way,' because we've still got a lot of camp to go, but we'll see. He's out there. He's available. That's important. It's important to be available when you're playing football, a team sport."

https://sports.yahoo.com/minnesota-v...001326820.html

I also thought that this meme sums things up well (again, this does not apply to everyone, but it applies to a lot of people, including my first cousin):

Vax Research.jpg

While not anti-vaccine specific, the research that many of the ivory tower DBR researchers conduct for their posts is important and on behalf of them I say, “How dare you?!?!”

[cspan37421]

Want me to do the math for you again? I am starting to think you are an alarmist. This study included 93 patients who had asymptomatic covid and 102 patients who have not had covid. Overall, the 2 groups did not show differences in cognitive scores, so, since these authors wanted to get the study published, they ...

... engaged in p-hacking.

(or so it sounds like to me)

This is an important concept to understand and apply when considering news reports of scientific studies. And sometimes, when considering the studies themselves.

Pre-registering studies is an important tool in fighting the "file drawer effect." But it's also important to decide on your hypothesis in advance of seeing the data! We're getting the Texas sharpshooter fallacy going here with defining it after seeing the data, sifting through it, and focusing on a narrow subset of it. As illustrated by Randall Munroe:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/significant.png

[camion]

While not anti-vaccine specific, the research that many of the ivory tower DBR researchers conduct for their posts is important and on behalf of them I say, “How dare you?!?!”

Thank you.

And just to be clear my favored furniture during my research is:

la-z-boy.jpg

Please note that it is manual, not electric. I like to get my exercise.

[Bostondevil]

... engaged in p-hacking.

(or so it sounds like to me)

This is an important concept to understand and apply when considering news reports of scientific studies. And sometimes, when considering the studies themselves.

Pre-registering studies is an important tool in fighting the "file drawer effect." But it's also important to decide on your hypothesis in advance of seeing the data! We're getting the Texas sharpshooter fallacy going here with defining it after seeing the data, sifting through it, and focusing on a narrow subset of it. As illustrated by Randall Munroe:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/significant.png

It doesn't bother me quite so much that they looked at the sub-scores (if these sub-scores were something that had been defined before the study), it's generalizing these results to the statement "it may be suggested that people employed in highly intellectual occupations might fall short of their work requirements if they have CoViD infection even asymptomatically" that makes me a bit crazy.

But yeah, "let's calculate a whole bunch of p-values until we find one that we can report about" is a problem all medical/public health journals face.

[MChambers]

Want me to do the math for you again? I am starting to think you are an alarmist. This study included 93 patients who had asymptomatic covid and 102 patients who have not had covid. Overall, the 2 groups did not show differences in cognitive scores, so, since these authors wanted to get the study published, they looked at sub-scores in the cognitive tests. They got some significant p-values there. Then they show that the older covid patients scored significantly lower than younger covid patients while older non-covid patients did not score significantly lower than younger non-covid patients. At this point, the numbers of study subjects is getting rather small, there were 18 older covid patients and 12 older non-covid patients. But, once they found that age mattered in this rather small group of study subjects, did they then go back and age-adjust their analysis of subscores? No, they did not. Did they discuss or adjust for any other factors that are known to affect cognitive abilities (where we have lots of data), factors like alcohol and marijuana use in adolescence? Other co-morbidities, especially ones that are known to affect cognitive abilities? Did they have any kind of baseline measure for these people - I mean, what were their cognitive scores pre-covid? It is entirely possible that the cognitive test sub-scores of these subjects was lower before any of them contracted covid. Do we need to study these things further? Yes, but when we do, we need to do a much, much, much better job than these researchers have done.

This article tries to offer limitations but if the authors think the only limitation of this study is small sample size, they must have skipped a lot of lectures in their Research Methods for Medical Professionals class. I mean, this paragraph from their discussion section is quite a leap:

"From our findings, it may be suggested that people employed in highly intellectual occupations might fall short of their work requirements if they have CoViD infection even asymptomatically. This is pertinent as doctors and medical personnel who are at a very high risk for the infection come under this category and their mental health condition is paramount to every medical strategy against CoVID 19."

Seriously? They think this study suggests that? OMG.

Here is the actual discussion section for this study: We found in a small group a patients enough evidence to recommend, moving forward, that the long term cognitive effects of covid 19 need to be studied alongside other long term effects. That's it. That's all this study found.

Thanks for more math! I don't think I'm not an alarmist, but I worry that folks are focused only on survival and not on long-term consequences. My father had dementia the last five years of his life, so I know how devastating it can be. Maybe that makes me worry too much about the risks.

Here's more from an epidemiologist: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...t-on-the-brain

[CrazyNotCrazie]

While not anti-vaccine specific, the research that many of the ivory tower DBR researchers conduct for their posts is important and on behalf of them I say, “How dare you?!?!”

Sorry if I'm missing the joke but I agree with you 100%. The real research that the people on DBR and other scientific researchers are doing is incredibly valuable and they are trained professionals with tremendous expertise - I am immensely grateful that they share their knowledge. When Joe/Jane the (insert profession completely unrelated to scientific research) thinks they are doing groundbreaking research and knows more than these people, that is what makes me angry. That is my takeaway from the meme. I trust science and expertise, even if it is occasionally wrong, because most of the time it is right.

[Bostondevil]

Thanks for more math! I don't think I'm not an alarmist, but I worry that folks are focused only on survival and not on long-term consequences. My father had dementia the last five years of his life, so I know how devastating it can be. Maybe that makes me worry too much about the risks.

Here's more from an epidemiologist: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...t-on-the-brain

For the record: 1) I am an alarmist and 2) I was teasing you. That comment was meant in jest.

[bundabergdevil]

Sorry if I'm missing the joke but I agree with you 100%. The real research that the people on DBR and other scientific researchers are doing is incredibly valuable and they are trained professionals with tremendous expertise - I am immensely grateful that they share their knowledge. When Joe/Jane the (insert profession completely unrelated to scientific research) thinks they are doing groundbreaking research and knows more than these people, that is what makes me angry. That is my takeaway from the meme. I trust science and expertise, even if it is occasionally wrong, because most of the time it is right.

Maybe if I’d put research and researchers in quotes?

The joke doesn’t benefit from the disproportionate number of actual medical professionals we have on this board. I get that.