PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[budwom]

I can appreciate why they chose you to drive, instead of a family member.

Ha, the first car I ever owned was a family hand me down, a '67 Oldsmobile Delta 88 which happens to be the same model Teddy was driving during The Incident.

Re driving RFK et al around: I was in my last year at a boarding school which was really more like a minimum security prison...I had no license because they didn't want us to know how to drive. So I'm sauntering around campus one day when along comes the pompous azz headmaster, driving his Mustang convertible, quite visibly with the RFK clan in the car with him. He evidently had to get to some meeting, so he pulls up next to me, hops out to go someplace, and directs me to drive them to another building which I happily did, once I figured where the gear shift was, various pedals, etc...got them there in one piece, had a nice chitty chat, didn't hit anything, so all was good.

[rsvman]

Ha, the first car I ever owned was a family hand me down, a '67 Oldsmobile Delta 88 which happens to be the same model Teddy was "driving" during The Incident.

....

Fixed it for you. ;-)

[niveklaen]

My wife and I got our 1st shots today. No side effects for either of us. Very happy.

[aimo]

My wife and I got our 1st shots today. No side effects for either of us. Very happy.

Not to shoot down anyone's hopes, but my immune responses did not occur until the second shot, and then the chills and fever did not start until about 12-13 hours after the second shot. Just be aware for 48 hours after each shot.

[budwom]

the only shot I'm getting today is a couple shots of gin at cocktail hour, why not have a G&T as it snows copiously?

[sagegrouse]

Time to change the name of this thread to "PlagueWatch 2020-2021"?

I'd also ditch "Plague," which I still see as "Plaque."

[brevity]

Time to change the name of this thread to "PlagueWatch 2020-2021"?

I'd also ditch "Plague," which I still see as "Plaque."

I've been thinking we should call it COVID 19-20-21, and pray we can close the thread before it gets as long as Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I've been thinking we should call it COVID 19-20-21, and pray we can close the thread before it gets as long as Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15.

Um...

Edit: in light of your name here, I respect your position. And I hope my name gets longer and longer.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Wife and I got our first shots today at an LA county site. Impressed with the smooth operation. Will report on after effects later.

SoCal

[CDu]

Up to 15 million having gotten at least one dose and about 2.5 million having received 2 doses (17.5 million total doses). The good news is that we have been holding a ~20 million per month pace for 2+ weeks. The bad news is that we are running about one month behind. That 20 million per month pace was what we wanted in December. But, it is at least progress.

As for supply, we are approaching 40 million doses distributed. And we are on a 30+ million (maybe 40 million) pace in January. I have seen reports that this distribution number may mean doses earmarked rather than doses shipped/received. But either way it seems like scale-up is starting to happen.

[budwom]

^ yes, there is a disconnect somewhere between what the CDC says has been shipped to certain states vs what has been actually received...ramp it up, boys!

[budwom]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/jj-p...mber-says.html

Johnson and Johnson board member (from the University of the Blue Devils) speaks optimistically about tossing 100 million doses of vaccine in the market in several months...fingers crossed their results (due very soon) are good.

As we've mentioned before, it's a single dose vaccine AND it only requires normal refrigeration.

[OldPhiKap]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/jj-p...mber-says.html

Johnson and Johnson board member (from the University of the Blue Devils) speaks optimistically about tossing 100 million doses of vaccine in the market in several months...fingers crossed their results (due very soon) are good.

As we've mentioned before, it's a single dose vaccine AND it only requires normal refrigeration.

Can you remind me what the claimed efficacy percentage is for the JnJ, and whether it has been FDA approved yet (or if not when expected)? I've sorta gotten lost on all of these.

Certainly, great news!

[CDu]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/jj-p...mber-says.html

Johnson and Johnson board member (from the University of the Blue Devils) speaks optimistically about tossing 100 million doses of vaccine in the market in several months...fingers crossed their results (due very soon) are good.

As we've mentioned before, it's a single dose vaccine AND it only requires normal refrigeration.

Yes, this would be game-changing. Per Fauci last night, they are on track to send data for review to the FDA in a couple of weeks, so hopefully by late February it will be approved in the US.

The big key, once JnJ is approved, will be increasing the scale on dose administration. We should be getting to a point soon where 40-50 million (maybe more) doses are supplied each month. But unless we substantially ramp up from the ~800K per day administration pace, we're going to struggle to get folks vaccinated before year end. We need to get that monthly rate up from 20 million to 40+ million.

[Lord Ash]

Qualified in NJ, and man, making phone call after phone call and getting nowhere. It’s just not available.

Makes me sad

[Bluedog]

The thing I'm going to curious about it what if JNJ's vaccine is shown to have something 70% efficacy. Are people going to not want to get it? Or will they get it temporarily and then get Pfizer/Moderna later? What will doctors recommend? Certainly, 70% is far greater than 0%. And the more people we can get vaccinated quickly, the faster we can contain this thing and go back to some sense of normalcy. Hopefully, numbers come back and are great. And yes, the mRNA vaccine efficacy numbers are truly great.

The other piece I'm curious about is timing of vaccine trials for children. Are those already in progress for Pfizer/Moderna and what is the expected timing?

[cato]

The other piece I'm curious about is timing of vaccine trials for children. Are those already in progress for Pfizer/Moderna and what is the expected timing?

I read an article about this yesterday, but can’t find it now. Here is what I recall:

* Yes, the trials are in progress. After getting emergency authorization for adults the companies will conduct trials in progressively younger people. The first group is 12 and older.

* One company is having trouble getting all of the desired candidates. The other has a full slate.

* There is some discussion of whether an emergency use authorization is appropriate for children, when so few suffer serious illness.

* There is some hope that vaccines will be approved for adolescents in time for the 2021/2022 school year to start, but that may be optimistic/depend on the emergency use issue.

* Vaccine for kids under 12 ain’t coming in 2021.

ETA: here is the article, which argues that vaccinating kids may be the path to herd immunity. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/617762/

[Tooold]

Another question I hope they can get a handle on soon is how effective each vaccine is against the variants...I have read that there is concern about the efficacy against the South African Variant. Selfishly, I have a family trip to South Africa planned for June (I paid for half when I booked it last April, thinking the virus would be long gone by June 2021.). But even if I am not being selfish, it would be nice to start getting some data about efficacy and whether or not the vaccines need to be tweaked for these variants.

[aimo]

The thing I'm going to curious about it what if JNJ's vaccine is shown to have something 70% efficacy. Are people going to not want to get it? Or will they get it temporarily and then get Pfizer/Moderna later? What will doctors recommend? Certainly, 70% is far greater than 0%. And the more people we can get vaccinated quickly, the faster we can contain this thing and go back to some sense of normalcy. Hopefully, numbers come back and are great. And yes, the mRNA vaccine efficacy numbers are truly great.

The other piece I'm curious about is timing of vaccine trials for children. Are those already in progress for Pfizer/Moderna and what is the expected timing?

70% is still amazing, and 70% now is better than 95% potentially months down the road. So, hopefully people will not try to hold out for the mRNA over any other vaccine. Remember, the flu is usually only around 40%.

[Jeffrey]

70% is still amazing, and 70% now is better than 95% potentially months down the road. So, hopefully people will not try to hold out for the mRNA over any other vaccine. Remember, the flu is usually only around 40%.

Did JNJ test two dose efficacy? If only 60-70% of the population ultimately gets vaccinated, then herd immunity is a long way off with 70% efficacy.