PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[rsvman]

A slight tangent, but I hope you'll forgive me.

In my day job, I run a nonprofit chamber of commerce in Columbus. We serve 103 health and human services nonprofits that run the gamut in the kind of work they do: running food pantries, homeless shelters, providing affordable housing, resettling immigrants, providing child care and after-school services, and on and on. Just like so many, these folks are exhausted, and they know things are about to get harder before they get better.

I am scrambling to do whatever I can to give them a boost--just some encouragement. And who better than Coach K?

So I reached out, and he very generously sent this to our folks earlier today:



My deep appreciation to Coach K and everyone at Duke basketball for taking the time, amidst all they're doing, to offer some words of encouragement--this will mean so much to so many.

This is pretty awesome.

[Lord Ash]

A slight tangent, but I hope you'll forgive me.

In my day job, I run a nonprofit chamber of commerce in Columbus. We serve 103 health and human services nonprofits that run the gamut in the kind of work they do: running food pantries, homeless shelters, providing affordable housing, resettling immigrants, providing child care and after-school services, and on and on. Just like so many, these folks are exhausted, and they know things are about to get harder before they get better.

I am scrambling to do whatever I can to give them a boost--just some encouragement. And who better than Coach K?

So I reached out, and he very generously sent this to our folks earlier today:



My deep appreciation to Coach K and everyone at Duke basketball for taking the time, amidst all they're doing, to offer some words of encouragement--this will mean so much to so many.

Whoa. Friends in high places

[OldPhiKap]

A slight tangent, but I hope you'll forgive me.

In my day job, I run a nonprofit chamber of commerce in Columbus. We serve 103 health and human services nonprofits that run the gamut in the kind of work they do: running food pantries, homeless shelters, providing affordable housing, resettling immigrants, providing child care and after-school services, and on and on. Just like so many, these folks are exhausted, and they know things are about to get harder before they get better.

I am scrambling to do whatever I can to give them a boost--just some encouragement. And who better than Coach K?

So I reached out, and he very generously sent this to our folks earlier today:



My deep appreciation to Coach K and everyone at Duke basketball for taking the time, amidst all they're doing, to offer some words of encouragement--this will mean so much to so many.

Way to go, Mike!

[Bluedog]

Duke grad Jeffrey Zients named (Biden's) White House coronavirus coordinator/"czar." He was in Obama's administration as well.

[JasonEvans]

210,161 new cases of Covid on December 3 according to Covid Tracking Project... easily a record and, I believe, the first time we have eclipsed the 200k mark. Yay!!!

Meanwhile, new deaths were 2733 on Wednesday and 2703 on Thursday. The 7-day moving average of deaths in the country is gonna top 2000 at some point in the next week.

As every expert around has been saying, December and January are going to be brutal... thank goodness we have vaccines coming to maybe begin to stem the tide in a few months.

[Kdogg]

The first vaccine distribution hiccup announced yesterday.


Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles
Pharma giant expects to ship half the doses it had originally planned after finding raw materials in early production didn’t meet its standards


It was a very optimist goal. Crossing fingers and hoping the supply chain is fixed quickly.

[YmoBeThere]

The first vaccine distribution hiccup announced yesterday.


Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles
Pharma giant expects to ship half the doses it had originally planned after finding raw materials in early production didn’t meet its standards


It was a very optimist goal. Crossing fingers and hoping the supply chain is fixed quickly.

Thanks for posting, saw this yesterday but didn't get a chance to link it. Good on one hand(sticking to quality measures) less good on the other as this backends the dates it becomes available to the general public.

[budwom]

yep, ramping up to mega production levels is going to be uneven...expect Moderna to have issues as well.

[CDu]

yep, ramping up to mega production levels is going to be uneven...expect Moderna to have issues as well.

Yeah, and worth noting that Pfizer is one of the companies with tons of experience in ramping up vaccine production. Moderna is new to the game. Yes, they're partnering with companies with development experience. But this is a new level of need/timing even for the companies with experience. So adding a newbie at the top of the food chain is likely to add more speed bumps.

I'd expect that by mid/late January or early February things are rolling somewhat smoothly. But it would not be surprising at all if December and January are a bit bumpy.

Also worth noting that the initial doses will be secured for a complete course. In other words, if there are 20 million doses ready, they aren't going to vaccinate 20 million with a dose and then hope that 20 million more are ready for administration in 3-4 weeks. They are going to vaccinate 10 million and hold the other 10 million for those who got the first dose to receive their booster on schedule.

In the short term (and possibly for the next 6-8 months or so until we get to a point where supply catches up to demand), that's probably how it will go: doses will be allocated for full regimens rather than partial doses, with the idea being to fully vaccinate individuals on schedule rather than partially vaccinate more people and risk them not getting fully vaccinated due to shortages.

[dukebluesincebirth]

The easiest answer to your question is that there is a large amount of public resistance and push-back to the idea of another "lockdown" of any sort. Not to mention that there are a lot of adverse outcomes that are directly related to lockdowns. Depression, suicide, domestic abuse, etc. are all increased during lockdown periods.

Thanks for responding, and I know you are absolutely correct about public resistance. I guess that's the part I'll probably never understand. I would think having family members get extremely sick, hospitalized and/or dying would cause a fair amount of depression in one's life, but that's just me I guess. I read a story yesterday about a mother taking on six additional children into her home because her siblings (the children's parents) were sick or had died of Covid and couldn't care for their own. No decent person wishes for increased depression/suicide/abuse for anyone in the world, but we're in the middle of a crisis here and thousands are dying. The previous lockdowns were indefinite and no one knew where we were going. With a vaccine supposedly right around the corner, I think a lockdown could be sold to the public with an end date well in sight. If not, we just get steamrolled until the vaccine is widely available. God help us. I know this is not a popular view, and this is my 2nd post about it, so I'll stop now.

[budwom]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...81f_story.html

As much as we should welcome every new vaccine, China's Sinovac history is concerning...bribery shouldn't be the best way to get approval.

[wavedukefan70s]

210,161 new cases of Covid on December 3 according to Covid Tracking Project... easily a record and, I believe, the first time we have eclipsed the 200k mark. Yay!!!

Meanwhile, new deaths were 2733 on Wednesday and 2703 on Thursday. The 7-day moving average of deaths in the country is gonna top 2000 at some point in the next week.

As every expert around has been saying, December and January are going to be brutal... thank goodness we have vaccines coming to maybe begin to stem the tide in a few months.

We wnt from about 1700 a day to 2500 cases .im sure Thanksgiving had something to do with the jump.
Crazy.

[Mike Corey]

Thanksgiving isn't reflected in deaths just yet--maybe not in hospitalizations just yet either.

~

Ohio's governor announced earlier this afternoon our state's anticipated vaccination schedule for December. We're expecting 650,000 doses by Christmas.

[wavedukefan70s]

Thanksgiving isn't reflected in deaths just yet--maybe not in hospitalizations just yet either.

~

Ohio's governor announced earlier this afternoon our state's anticipated vaccination schedule for December. We're expecting 650,000 doses by Christmas.

Im thinking the case count jumping 45%.
May be now we have tuberculosis exposure at my sons highschool aswell.

[rsvman]

My hospital probably just got aced out of the Pfizer vaccine we were supposed to be getting soon because of the supply chain problems.

The entire Commonwealth was supposed to get 70K doses right away; that has been cut to 35K. The Health Department plans to allocate the vaccines by "need," which they are determining by numbers of cases at the various hospitals. Since we are a children's hospital, and the only one in the Commonwealth, are numbers are going to be dwarfed by those of the adult hospitals; thus, the vaccines will be shuttled to them, leaving us in the lurch.

I was getting excited about the possibility of getting vaccinated before Christmas, but now it is almost certain not to happen.

Meantime, our daily positives are moving up; yesterday and today we had a total of 45 positive tests and three new admissions.

[budwom]

^ I've had my Expectation Meter set at July 1 for some time now, just don't want to get myself jacked up over an earlier date...Maybe I'll be surprised and get a jab in late May or June, who knows?
The first order of business is staying healthy in these Winter months.

[sagegrouse]

Yeah, and worth noting that Pfizer is one of the companies with tons of experience in ramping up vaccine production. Moderna is new to the game. Yes, they're partnering with companies with development experience. But this is a new level of need/timing even for the companies with experience. So adding a newbie at the top of the food chain is likely to add more speed bumps.

I'd expect that by mid/late January or early February things are rolling somewhat smoothly. But it would not be surprising at all if December and January are a bit bumpy.

Also worth noting that the initial doses will be secured for a complete course. In other words, if there are 20 million doses ready, they aren't going to vaccinate 20 million with a dose and then hope that 20 million more are ready for administration in 3-4 weeks. They are going to vaccinate 10 million and hold the other 10 million for those who got the first dose to receive their booster on schedule.

In the short term (and possibly for the next 6-8 months or so until we get to a point where supply catches up to demand), that's probably how it will go: doses will be allocated for full regimens rather than partial doses, with the idea being to fully vaccinate individuals on schedule rather than partially vaccinate more people and risk them not getting fully vaccinated due to shortages.

Actually, CDu, Operation Warp Speed Chief Operating Officer Gen. Gus Perna said the exact opposite on Tuesday. They are not going to burden the system by having millions and millions of doses in storage waiting for the 25 days or 29 days or the proper interval. It requires scarce cooling and requires the administering entities to have their own logistics system. They will send out the second doses to arrive at the time they are required.

I don't want to disagree with you, but obviously, this is an area that needs some clarity.

[rsvman]

Our hospital was told the same thing, that however many doses we got, that's how many people would get their first shot, and that we were not allowed to give only half and store the rest to complete the series.

[CDu]

Actually, CDu, Operation Warp Speed Chief Operating Officer Gen. Gus Perna said the exact opposite on Tuesday. They are not going to burden the system by having millions and millions of doses in storage waiting for the 25 days or 29 days or the proper interval. It requires scarce cooling and requires the administering entities to have their own logistics system. They will send out the second doses to arrive at the time they are required.

I don't want to disagree with you, but obviously, this is an area that needs some clarity.

Our hospital was told the same thing, that however many doses we got, that's how many people would get their first shot, and that we were not allowed to give only half and store the rest to complete the series.

Interesting, as Alex Azar said the opposite of what Perna apparently said - they will send half of the doses out initially to ensure that the other half are available at the right time:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/healt...hen/index.html

Not sure who to believe. Although Azar’s statement is not in disagreement with what rsvman’s post says, just what Perna says.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Interesting, as Alex Azar said the opposite of what Perna apparently said - they will send half of the doses out initially to ensure that the other half are available at the right time:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/healt...hen/index.html

Not sure who to believe. Although Azar’s statement is not in disagreement with what rsvman’s post says, just what Perna says.

Considering the PPE distribution fiasco, I assume the plan for vaccine distribution will be a poop show until at least Jan 20.