What a bunch of straight men you guys are! "going rouge is actually 'a thing;" mes amis:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Going_Rouge
Yes, I suspect Fauci will remain above the fray, but as POTUS intensifies his personal attacks on him, I do feel his patience may not be infinite.
yeah, ICUs are filling up in AZ, CA, other places ...>350 people on respirators in LA county alone...deaths have risen and almost certainly will continue to...
It depends what you mean by few weeks, but yes. I think there is a real possibility that the 7 day moving average of deaths will be in the 700 range or lower 8 weeks from now (I also wouldn't be surprised if it's much higher). If you forced me to bet on that over/under, I genuinely would not know what to do based on the information I have.
Over the next 2-3 weeks, i do expect an increase, but I have no idea how big. I think there is a very broad range of possibilities.
Sure. I do think that hospitalizations are a pretty good metric on that front, though. Maybe not everyone who is hospitalized ends up in the ICU or on a ventilator, but at minimum they were sick enough to go to the hospital. Can't speak for anyone but myself, but I'm 46 and have never considered going to the hospital for the flu or a bad cold.
You're one of those people that I love. As 20 people run by them screaming "BEAR!"(anecdotal stories), they wait until they can actually see the bear(real data) before they start running. Maybe they run some tests on the bear to make sure that he is actually a bear, not a giant squirrel. Maybe they interview him to make sure he is THE bear that was chasing the others, not some innocent bear that just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Meanwhile, I'll be in my car with the windows up and the doors locked, watching a bear have breakfast.
"That young man has an extra step on his ladder the rest of us just don't have."
Agree, hospitalizations is a good metric to assess severity.
According to the CDC, there were 410,000-740,000 influenza hospitalizations in the USA during the 2019-20 flu season (about 6 months).
It is very difficult to find cumulative hospitalization data on Covid-19, but based on my research, it does not appear to be significantly higher than that and may still be lower (although it is 4 months vs. 6 and the seasonality / sustained transmission within a region are unknown for Covid-19).
Those pointy-heads at Columbia have been compiling some "anecdotes" for you. BTW, this article was posted here a couple of days ago, it's not breaking news.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...dy/ar-BB16B8mr
I hope you were not implying that I was mocking him. I have re-read my post to make sure I did not accidentally phrase something in a way that indicate that. I feel nothing but sadness at the loss of life here, especially because this would appear to be a life cut short that did not have to be had the decedent believed in the advice of the medical experts.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I assume your reference to pointy-heads at Columbia and the inappropriate use of "" around anecdotes means you are mocking me and think I am stupid or anti-science or something. I love science. The science denial trend is awful and I hate it. Relying on scary anecdotes to form views of aggregate risk is not science. It leads to bad decisions. Quick googling yields a number of almost identical articles about abnormal blood clotting and other serious effects seen in influenza. Without real data, it is impossible to form a useful view on the relative risks.
Not directly Covid related, but this is not great publicity for our alma mater:https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...s/?arc404=true
Some very harsh words for our student health center...
How are you differentiating between the usefulness of reported hospitalization numbers for flu and COVID-19? There is a very wide range in the flu number already, which you imply have some validity.
When you say COVID-19 hospitalizations numbers do not “appear to be significantly higher” what numbers are you using?
Carolina delenda est
On influenza, I assume the CDC influenza report has some validity, but I don't really know. Those are the numbers the CDC reports.
On Covid-19, I could not find complete cumulative hospitalization data. I triangulated in 2 ways to get a sense for it:
- We know total known cases are about 3M, and some have estimated 20% hospitalization rate on known cases. If that's right, it would put C-19 hospitalizations in similar range to the influenza hospitalizations
- This work from UMN has cumulative data for 38 states and their number is 269k for C-19 hospitalizations. Obviously, that is incomplete, but even if it only capturing half of hospitalizations, C-19 is still within the CDC influenza range. Their data is missing California and Texas, but includes New York and Florida. Even if their 38 states were only capturing 1/3 of real hospitalizations, it still would be within spitting distance of the influenza range.
https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-m...acking-project
Based on that, I conclude that it doesn't seem likely that there are significantly more C-19 hospitalizations than flu hospitalizations so far.
I am not claiming this is just the flu or anything like that. Just think it is good to have some grounding facts. The # of deaths from C-19 has definitely been higher than from flu in the same time period, with the bulk of those C-19 deaths happening in Spring.
For those who believe there have been more C-19 hospitalizations than influenza hospitalizations since October of 2019, what is the evidence for that belief?
I agree it's not entirely clear - however, based on the data on this page:
https://covidtracking.com/data
It looks to me as if we have had just over 1 million hospitalizations to date, with the caveat that Kansas and Hawaii do not report. I *think* that's what that says but I acknowledge I could be reading it incorrectly, so if someone else has a different take, of course feel free to share.
According to a UK study: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-suggests
But, as has been suggested upthread, this is based on drops in antibody levels. The immune system has other ways to attack the coronavirus, including T cells. Still, this study should give anyone planning to go to a Covid party pause (as should the risk of death or permanent medical issues).
Here's the underlying study, not peer reviewed: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...09.20148429v1
I looked at that site and could not find any cumulative hospitalization data there. The only " just over 1M number" I see there is the number of known resolved cases, which is independent of hospitalization status. If it's there, please point me to it. Would love to have that data!
Right - but the "recovered" and "deaths" figures only add up to about 1.03 million - far less than the total # of cases, and significantly less than worldometers' "resolved" figure. Wouldn't that mean that we've got 2 million+ cases that are currently not resolved? Because if so, that's terrifying.
So, if freshmanjs' estimate is correct -- with most of us doing nothing to stop the spread of influenza, we end up with roughly the same number of hospitalizations (but not nearly the same number of deaths) as where we are right now on Covid. That is despite a large percentage of the nation observing social distancing and mask wearing on an order of magnitude unlike anything in our history. Even with those this unprecedented effort to control it, the disease is running rampant and spreading faster and faster every day.
I shudder to think of what hospitalizations and deaths would be like if we were to ease off even a little bit. I want to thank freshmanjs for providing such a convincing argument for us being even more vigilant!
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?