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  1. #1

    PlagueWatch 2020 - Coronavirus

    We need a thread on this virus originating from Wuhan. (But is this the last thread I'll ever start on DBR?). Last I checked, China has quarantined / travel-banned 35 million people in 8 cities already. As we're following this thing, put your thoughts in this thread.

    More later.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    So, at some point in modern medical times weíre surely going to run into a fast spreading, high mortality rate virus in the developed world that causes true cinematic level panic. But, we should remember that HIVAIDS has killed 35 million since the early 80s and something like 5 percent of the sub Saharan Africa population is infected.

    My only point being that when stuff like SARS or this pop up, a lot of folks are thinking World War Z and not about our long-lived epidemics like AIDS.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    we are now up to two cases in the US.

    https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...ronavirus.html

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Paging rsvman...
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  5. #5
    Read Chuck Wendigís Wanderers (its a big book and compelling read) and then report back.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    I sure hope it's not the plague. The branch of the CDC tasked with fighting global outbreaks of infectious disease is not what it once was. We aren't as prepared to combat a major outbreak as we used to be.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    So far this coronavirus has killed less than 5% of those infected so it's not all that deadly.





    OTOH, I hear that it's turning 65% of the survivors into zombies. That's what we have to worry about.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    So, at some point in modern medical times weíre surely going to run into a fast spreading, high mortality rate virus in the developed world that causes true cinematic level panic. But, we should remember that HIVAIDS has killed 35 million since the early 80s and something like 5 percent of the sub Saharan Africa population is infected.

    My only point being that when stuff like SARS or this pop up, a lot of folks are thinking World War Z and not about our long-lived epidemics like AIDS.
    Well AIDS/HIV is pretty easy to avoid on a personal basis. A virus transmitted by airborne or droplet particles, near impossible to avoid.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Tucson, AZ
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    My only point being that when stuff like SARS or this pop up, a lot of folks are thinking World War Z and not about our long-lived epidemics like AIDS.
    This is maybe also the point to bring up that the flu kills an average of ~40,000 Americans a year (CDC, last 5 years) and hundreds of thousands globally.

    So far at least, this outbreak looks less deadly than SARS, which killed about 1 in 10 infected - hopefully that continues to be true.

    Edit: BTW, the flu kills about 0.1-0.2% in the US, so SARS and Wuhan are both a lot worse in that respect.
    Last edited by crimsondevil; 01-24-2020 at 01:12 PM. Reason: add flu death rate

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Paging rsvman...
    I'm here!

    Worth keeping an eye on, but highly unlikely to kill us all before we put a whooping or two on the boys from Chapel Hill.

    This is the third kinda scary novel coronavirus in the past 15 years or so. Y'all may remember SARS, which made its way to Canada in pretty good numbers but somehow failed to turn into a pandemic, and MERS, which fizzled out relatively quickly.

    This one seems likely to be less lethal than SARS, and public health people are taking the proper steps so far. I suspect it will end up being about like MERS or perhaps slightly worse. Most of you probably don't even remember MERS, so that's a good sign.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    So far this coronavirus has killed less than 5% of those infected so it's not all that deadly.
    (Deaths / Infected) is not the mortality rate.

    ...but let's run with 5% not being that deadly. The CDC estimates that 42.9 million people caught the flu in the 2018-19 season. and 61,200 died. That is a 0.15% mortality rate. If we bump that up to 5%, that will have meant that 2,145,000 people would have died during the last flu season. Globally the death rate would be up into the tens of millions.

    For comparison, SARS was 14-15% fatality rate and more than 50% for those over 64 years of age.

    The H1N1 outbreak in the winter of 2009-2010 infected 1 in 5 people, for an estimated population of 1.4 billion. Thankfully it proved far less severe than the common flu (0.02% mortality). Imagine that with a 5% death rate, that's 70 million people.

    So, 5% doesn't sound like a lot but if we are talking global outbreak the numbers add up quickly.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Meanwhile, the 2019-2020 flu epidemic had sickened about 29 million people, hospitalized over 950K, and killed an estimated 80K so far, just to put things in perspective.

    Oh, and we have a vaccine to prevent or mitigate it, and a lot of people don't even want it. Go figure.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    Well AIDS/HIV is pretty easy to avoid on a personal basis. A virus transmitted by airborne or droplet particles, near impossible to avoid.
    I’d encourage you to read about mother-to-child transmission of AIDS, which has been a major cause of pediatric mortality in Africa. Millions of children have been impacted. There are medicines to help these days but reaching and educating the total at risk population is still a major challenge.

    So, no, it’s not really easy to avoid on a personal basis in some parts of the world.

    https://data.unicef.org/resources/ch...napshots-2019/

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I'm here!

    Worth keeping an eye on, but highly unlikely to kill us all before we put a whooping or two on the boys from Chapel Hill.

    This is the third kinda scary novel coronavirus in the past 15 years or so. Y'all may remember SARS, which made its way to Canada in pretty good numbers but somehow failed to turn into a pandemic, and MERS, which fizzled out relatively quickly.

    This one seems likely to be less lethal than SARS, and public health people are taking the proper steps so far. I suspect it will end up being about like MERS or perhaps slightly worse. Most of you probably don't even remember MERS, so that's a good sign.
    Yes, but those outbreaks took place before the deep funding cuts to the branch of the CDC that deals with such things. It's still too early to tell and we aren't getting accurate numbers out of China, but one article I read stated that the Chinese have confirmed 26 deaths and 800 cases. That's a scary death rate. Still, it's early.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Iíd encourage you to read about mother-to-child transmission of AIDS, which has been a major cause of pediatric mortality in Africa. Millions of children have been impacted. There are medicines to help these days but reaching and educating the total at risk population is still a major challenge.

    So, no, itís not really easy to avoid on a personal basis in some parts of the world.

    https://data.unicef.org/resources/children-hiv-and-aids-global-and-regional-snapshots-2019/
    Yeah, Iím talking about the average person in the developed world here. No doubt a fetus canít prevent a HIV infection on itís own. But if Iím walking around, a respiratory virus can infect me fairly easily. HIV I can easily avoid.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Meanwhile, the 2019-2020 flu epidemic had sickened about 29 million people, hospitalized over 950K, and killed an estimated 80K so far, just to put things in perspective.

    Oh, and we have a vaccine to prevent or mitigate it, and a lot of people don't even want it. Go figure.
    Andrew Wakefield is on my personal list of worst humans ever.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Bostondevil View Post
    Andrew Wakefield is on my personal list of worst humans ever.
    Lets not get into a public policy discussion, ok?

    But... ummm... yeah, not someone who has helped mankind if you believe in, you know, science.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    So, question to the group: in the event that there was some sort of World War Z or TWD scenario, would you want to die in the first wave or fight to survive for a long time in terrifying circumstances? Some trusted advisers of mine have started to bring me over to the ďdie immediatelyĒ caucus versus the be like Rick Grimes club.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Lets not get into a public policy discussion, ok?

    But... ummm... yeah, not someone who has helped mankind if you believe in, you know, science.
    We interrupt Plague Watch 2020 for a musical interlude


  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Lets not get into a public policy discussion, ok?

    But... ummm... yeah, not someone who has helped mankind if you believe in, you know, science.
    Sorry - didn't think that was a public policy statement because of, you know, science. But OK.

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