PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[budwom]

This is an old (from earlier this year) photo.

Some folks just scream out for attention. We do the world a disservice when we give them our attention. Some folks have lots of tattoos, some folks have lots of piercings, some folks dress outside the norm, some folks wear their pants around their knees, some folks drive very expensive cars, some folks wear clothes that cost more than my mortgage payment, some folks open carry. We should all choose to ignore these cries for attention and just go about our business.

Whenever I visit NC for vacation, or a football game, I like to bring what I need, I even have a wee checklist (sunscreen, hat) and wondered if I needed to have an Uzi or something to stay competitive down there.
I admit I've been taken aback before entering stores there (maybe Whole Foods?) where there's a sign asking patrons if they'd be kind enough to leave their firearms in their vehicle.

[aimo]

I do not mean for this to be as morbid as it probably sounds, but have any active politicians died from COVID yet?

According to the conspiracy theorists, NO.

[swood1000]

Are you convinced that asymptomatic people do not transmit the virus?

According to the CDC as of May 20, asymptomatic people are just as contagious as symptomatic people. In a CDC online report dated July, 2020, the CDC said:

However, in the aggregate, these diverse studies suggest that SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted by persons with presymptomatic or asymptomatic infection, which may meaningfully contribute to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This would appear to be especially true if you count presymptomatic people. SARS-CoV-2 has an average incubation period of five days and people typically begin infecting others two to three days before symptoms appear. According to one study, 44% of viral transmissions occur within this period.

On June 8 the World Health Organization announced that it is “very rare” for people who are asymptomatic (as opposed to those who are in the incubation period but will develop symptoms at the end of that period) to transmit the virus onward to others. The next day they backed away from that.

[rsvman]

Are you convinced that asymptomatic people do not transmit the virus?

No.

Another issue with this is that we know people who are infected and are going to develop symptoms but have not yet developed them are contagious. We call this presymptomatic spread. Presymptomatic and asymptomatic patients cannot be distinguished from one another; only time will distinguish them, unfortunately.

So we know for sure that at least in some cases the virus is being spread by asymptomatic people.


Think about it: if it were only spread from symptomatic people, it would be a lot easier to control.

[swood1000]

Regarding immunity and antibodies, it is worth noting that if a vaccine gets us to a decent percentage of the population that is at least temporarily immune, then the virus may die out as a result of not having any new hosts. This is essentially how herd immunity works. So, if that immunity wears off after a few months then, hopefully, the virus will simply not be prevalent enough to again rip through the population.

I believe that would be the hope if we are not able to develop any kind of lasting immunity to this virus.

In addition to vaccines there is hope that monoclonal antibodies now under development will get us there a lot faster. For one thing you can’t give a vaccine to a person who is already infected since it takes too long for the body to produce antibodies as a result, but you can give monoclonal antibodies to such a person. The drawback is that this only gives eight to ten week of protection, apparently.

[budwom]

In addition to vaccines there is hope that monoclonal antibodies now under development will get us there a lot faster. For one thing you can’t give a vaccine to a person who is already infected since it takes too long for the body to produce antibodies as a result, but you can give monoclonal antibodies to such a person. The drawback is that this only gives eight to ten week of protection, apparently.

is there enough previously infected blood out there to get this done? I have no idea, just asking...seems like you'd need a vast amount of blood...

[swood1000]

is there enough previously infected blood out there to get this done? I have no idea, just asking...seems like you'd need a vast amount of blood...

No, these are not antibodies harvested from someone who had been infected. These are antibodies synthesized in a lab.

[rsvman]

is there enough previously infected blood out there to get this done? I have no idea, just asking...seems like you'd need a vast amount of blood...

They are synthesizing the antibody, so no blood needed at all.

[JasonEvans]

They are synthesizing the antibody, so no blood needed at all.

[wilson]

As the new school year begins to appear on the horizon, I have really, really mixed feelings. I am trying to maintain my grip on patience and perspective as I accept that "normalcy" isn't returning anytime soon, but it's getting harder.

[MChambers]

Here's a moving, sad, and scary report from Richard Loftus, a doctor at Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage. His post, which has gone viral (sorry -- don't know how else to put it) on FB, is reproduced at the bottom of the story linked below, but here's an excerpt (I'd post the whole thing, but am wary of copyright issues):

"I'm in a hotspot hospital in a hotspot region (Coachella Valley, Inland Empire, CA). We just converted the entire second floor of our hospital to COVID-19 care yesterday, July 1. We have 65 inpatients with COVID-19 in a hospital with 368 beds. It is the same at our other 2 hospitals in the Valley. We spent yesterday deciding the ethical way to divide up limited remdesivir (30 patients' worth) for the hospital patients. My 20 incoming interns for our IM resident were exposed to COVID 2 weeks ago during their computer chart training; apparently 100% of our computer trainers had COVID19. One intern tested positive 7 days later and I insisted we re-test them all again, as there are almost certainly other cases with minimal symptoms. I raided my household and took my entire supply of face shields to the hospital for the residents to wear on their first day, and I paid $1000 of my own money to equip all of my residents with medical-grade face shields. I require all residents to wear a surgical mask or N95 with face shield if they are within 6 feet of another human, patient or coworker.

Roughly 20% of our inpatients die. Only 30% of our ventilated patients survive. (We try to avoid ventilation at all costs.

https://kesq.com/news/2020/07/07/doc...rus-hell-show/

[dukebluesincebirth]

Another day of 2K+ new cases reported in NC yesterday, ugh... it’s just not getting better. Many hospitals expressing concerns about numbers, and governor cooper just said he’ll make an announcement about schools next week. As a teacher in NC and 2 young daughters in schools, I’m very anxious.

[swood1000]

As the new school year begins to appear on the horizon, I have really, really mixed feelings. I am trying to maintain my grip on patience and perspective as I accept that "normalcy" isn't returning anytime soon, but it's getting harder.

It appears that the risk to children, at least to those without significant comorbidities, is very, very low, and the risk we are assessing is really to the adults in the equation: teachers, administrators, bus drivers, custodians, as well as to parents and grandparents living in the home. Even as to adults, one study concluded:

People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

Would it be barbaric to schedule school and exclude the high-risk adults but increase teacher salaries until a sufficient number of low-risk adults have signed up, if N95 respirators, etc. were made available to them? A student living in a family containing a high risk adult would either have to stay out of school, or live with a different family for a time, or the high-risk adults would have to relocate until a vaccine is developed. There is also harm, possibly long-term, to students who have no effective schooling until the pandemic is over.

We could say that we won’t start school until there is a proven vaccine but it normally takes years to do the safety testing deemed necessary on vaccines. They’re talking about shortening the testing but that clearly increases the risk of uncommon or long-term side effects that the shortened testing schedule is unable to ferret out. Come January and there is a vaccine do we require teachers to accept that risk? Is that less problematic than asking young teachers to volunteer to accept a different but also low risk?

[dudog84]

This morning I read that a group of lawyers in Florida is suing to block the GOP convention. Whether they are successful in that or not remains to be seen of course, but they picked a whopper of a day to make their case.

The lawsuit, filed in Duval County, points to several arguments why the city should not host the event as Florida’s case numbers continue to spike, saying the convention would be "a nuisance injurious to the health [and] welfare" of the community.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...nal-convention

This is why flunked out of law school first year. I would have written "this is a really bad idea".

[OldPhiKap]

This is why flunked out of law school first year. I would have written "this is a really bad idea".

"asinine" covers a lot of sins.

But the lawsuit, as best I can tell, is a non-starter. Seems kinda bogus to me.

Trump's team is now also looking at Jaguar Stadium, and the minor league baseball stadium in Jacksonville, as potential outdoor venues if needed. Hurricane season and Florida, what could possibly go wrong.

[CameronBornAndBred]

"asinine" covers a lot of sins.

But the lawsuit, as best I can tell, is a non-starter. Seems kinda bogus to me.

Trump's team is now also looking at Jaguar Stadium, and the minor league baseball stadium in Jacksonville, as potential outdoor venues if needed. Hurricane season and Florida, what could possibly go wrong.

Well, just the idea of everyday thunderstorms would be heavy on my mind.
Future Jacksonville headlines will state "Nobody Dies of Coronavirus at Convention, Thirty People Electrocuted by Lightning"

[CDu]

Well, we were expecting this day to come, but hoping we'd somehow avoid it. Mrs. CDu (pediatric nurse in hospital setting) has come down with a sore throat last night, which has spread to CDu Jr. (age 5.5) and even me. Per hospital regulations, she's on quarantine for 14 days minimum, perhaps more pending the results of her nasal test (she got it today, results in 4-24 hours).

Stressful time in the CDu household. Fingers crossed that this is just a common cold and she comes back negative. Generally speaking, we're a pretty healthy lot, and not in any high-risk group, so fingers crossed that if it is COVID it doesn't result in severe symptoms. But we're obviously anxiously awaiting her test results.

[dudog84]

Well, we were expecting this day to come, but hoping we'd somehow avoid it. Mrs. CDu (pediatric nurse in hospital setting) has come down with a sore throat last night, which has spread to CDu Jr. (age 5.5) and even me. Per hospital regulations, she's on quarantine for 14 days minimum, perhaps more pending the results of her nasal test (she got it today, results in 4-24 hours).

Stressful time in the CDu household. Fingers crossed that this is just a common cold and she comes back negative. Generally speaking, we're a pretty healthy lot, and not in any high-risk group, so fingers crossed that if it is COVID it doesn't result in severe symptoms. But we're obviously anxiously awaiting her test results.

Best of luck. Fingers crossed.

[MChambers]

"asinine" covers a lot of sins.

But the lawsuit, as best I can tell, is a non-starter. Seems kinda bogus to me.

Trump's team is now also looking at Jaguar Stadium, and the minor league baseball stadium in Jacksonville, as potential outdoor venues if needed. Hurricane season and Florida, what could possibly go wrong.

Nothing says fun like Jacksonville in August, outdoors, with highs routinely in the 90s and humidity off the charts. I know, because I grew up there.

[MChambers]

Well, we were expecting this day to come, but hoping we'd somehow avoid it. Mrs. CDu (pediatric nurse in hospital setting) has come down with a sore throat last night, which has spread to CDu Jr. (age 5.5) and even me. Per hospital regulations, she's on quarantine for 14 days minimum, perhaps more pending the results of her nasal test (she got it today, results in 4-24 hours).

Stressful time in the CDu household. Fingers crossed that this is just a common cold and she comes back negative. Generally speaking, we're a pretty healthy lot, and not in any high-risk group, so fingers crossed that if it is COVID it doesn't result in severe symptoms. But we're obviously anxiously awaiting her test results.

My fingers are crossed, too. Hope you get the all clear shortly.