PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[CDu]

Trends in COVID deaths the past 10 days: 363, 558, 912, 1049, 974, 1045, 1330, 1165, 1255, 1690 (and counting - still a few states haven't reported for today).

The good news is that new cases in NY seem to be declining. But deaths there are still increasing. But at least it appears that NY is maybe over the initial peak in cases and will hopefully soon reach their peak in daily deaths.

The question then becomes whether other states are able to avoid the spikes. It looks bad for Michigan and NJ and Georgia at the moment. Fingers crossed that things don't get worse there.

[elvis14]

They have closed most of the beaches to surf fishing, and all of the piers. So you can play golf, and not surf fish? Somebody explain that to me. Inland fishing is still ok.

I believe the issue is locality. There are 3 golf courses within 10 minutes of my house. I have a tee time on Thursday for one of them. If I get sick, I'll be here in Raleigh and will go to WakeMed (where my wife works).

If I go to the beach, I'll be leaving Raleigh and driving to the coast. The hospitals are generally sized to support the population. The concern is that the hospitals on the coast will be too easily overwhelmed if everyone that wants to travel just goes wherever they want.

I have multiple friends with beach houses. I love the beach as do my kids and I would love nothing more than to go stay at one of them for a week or two since I'm working from home. I won't do it, however, since the beaches are closed.

[OldPhiKap]

The Secretary of the Navy has resigned after being blasted on all sides for his dressing down of Captain Crozier.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/polit...ump/index.html

-Jason "the lesson here is clearly, 'Don't mess with a guy who commands a nuclear powered floating airport'" Evans

When a captain risks his career for the safety of his crew, don’t fire the captain and then call him stupid for doing so in front of said crew.

And the fact that the captain is now in quarantine because he has the virus just adds to the don’t-doery of it all.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Good news in that there are less predicted deaths now. Bad news? That number is lower because of assumptions like this.

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html

[jv001]

They have closed most of the beaches to surf fishing, and all of the piers. So you can play golf, and not surf fish? Somebody explain that to me. Inland fishing is still ok.

Fishing= little exercise. Golf lot's of exercise looking for golf balls in woods, trees, etc.

GoDuke!

[AustinDevil]

Fascinating anecdotal conjecture that the protocols for ventilator usage on COVID-19 patients could be wrong.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...acute-covid-19

[sagegrouse]

When a captain risks his career for the safety of his crew, don’t fire the captain and then call him stupid for doing so in front of said crew.

And the fact that the captain is now in quarantine because he has the virus just adds to the don’t-doery of it all.

Uh, from five decades in and around the federal government: the most important thing is to serve honorably. Any political favors you do are quickly forgotten; the stench lives on forever. His name is mud-ly.

[devildeac]

Fishing= little exercise. Golf lot's of exercise looking for golf balls in woods, trees, etc.

GoDuke!

Don't forget those diminishing 12 ounce curls for some golfers...

I'm one of the folks who could routinely turn a 6000 yard course into a 12000-14000 yard stroll in the countryside/mountains...

[Kdogg]

They have closed most of the beaches to surf fishing, and all of the piers. So you can play golf, and not surf fish? Somebody explain that to me. Inland fishing is still ok.

I don’t completely buy it but I’m not an oceanographer. Just someone who has lived at the beach most of my life.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.lat...es%3f_amp=true

I believe the issue is locality. There are 3 golf courses within 10 minutes of my house. I have a tee time on Thursday for one of them. If I get sick, I'll be here in Raleigh and will go to WakeMed (where my wife works).

If I go to the beach, I'll be leaving Raleigh and driving to the coast. The hospitals are generally sized to support the population. The concern is that the hospitals on the coast will be too easily overwhelmed if everyone that wants to travel just goes wherever they want.

I have multiple friends with beach houses. I love the beach as do my kids and I would love nothing more than to go stay at one of them for a week or two since I'm working from home. I won't do it, however, since the beaches are closed.

Beaches are open in South Carolina. Short term rentals are restricted. Public access is closed but if you have a house on the ocean you have free reign. I would think the same holds in NC. You are right about the hospitals though.

[CDu]

Good news in that there are less predicted deaths now. Bad news? That number is lower because of assumptions like this.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html

Interesting. For what it is worth, that doesn’t appear to be what is on the IHME website. It still lists “through May”. Through May was what they had assumed before the weekend too.

Maybe they haven’t updated their website, but nothing else appears to suggest that they have changed that assumption. And I can’t find anything in the IHME’s explanation of the update that suggests this. I suspect this is just a journalism/editing error. Although I guess technically they COULD be assuming school closures until August, so maybe it isn’t a wildly bad error.

[MChambers]

Interesting interview with Jennifer Nuzzo of Hopkins, who co-authored a report last year about what would happen if a “high-impact respiratory pathogen” emerged.

https://daily.jstor.org/jennifer-nuz...g-to-covid-19/

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Fascinating anecdotal conjecture that the protocols for ventilator usage on COVID-19 patients could be wrong.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...acute-covid-19

Sounds like these physicians are describing something more akin to altitude sickness or hypoxemia than pneumonia.

[devildeac]

Sounds like these physicians are describing something more akin to altitude sickness or hypoxemia than pneumonia.

That's what I understood when I saw the original link to that ER MD's twitter account and read some related articles. It sounds even worse than altitude sickness and more like HAPE (high altitude pulmonary edema).


https://www.health.harvard.edu/a_to_...ickness-a-to-z

"...A related illness, high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE), can occur with or without warning symptoms that signal altitude sickness. HAPE causes fluid to enter the lungs..."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3617508/

Long medical article. Not really conducive to a summary-sorry. One interesting point someone mentioned upthread:

"...To date, there are no clinical trials on the use of more selective pulmonary vasodilators such as sildenafil or other phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors in this setting..."

[CDu]

Georgia is potentially about to really take it on the chin. 119 deaths and 1800 confirmed cases today.

[Devilwin]

Fishing= little exercise. Golf lot's of exercise looking for golf balls in woods, trees, etc.

GoDuke!

You have never fished with me..I keep the fish busy!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

That's what I understood when I saw the original link to that ER MD's twitter account and read some related articles. It sounds even worse than altitude sickness and more like HAPE (high altitude pulmonary edema).


https://www.health.harvard.edu/a_to_...ickness-a-to-z

"...A related illness, high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE), can occur with or without warning symptoms that signal altitude sickness. HAPE causes fluid to enter the lungs..."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3617508/

Long medical article. Not really conducive to a summary-sorry. One interesting point someone mentioned upthread:

"...To date, there are no clinical trials on the use of more selective pulmonary vasodilators such as sildenafil or other phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors in this setting..."

I had a nasty bout with altitude sickness many years ago in Breckinridge. (Sidebar: what an idiot I was to travel from San Francisco in the morning and go straight up the mountain to Breckinridge with no acclimation in Denver.) Anyway, by end of the second day on the mountain, I was suffering from severe headaches and couldn’t fully catch my breath. Coughing nonstop. My blood oxygen level was down around 92 if I recall correctly. Oxygen via cannula did basically nothing for me. The only thing that worked was leaving and going back down the mountain. By the time I got back down to Denver, I felt like a million bucks. I can’t say I understand the physiology of this. But it was clear that oxygenation alone was not going to do it. It was really all about barometric pressure.

Obviously this virus is not altering barometric pressure but it sure does seem to produce several of the same kind of resulting symptoms... esp. chest pressure, breathlessness, dry cough and headaches.

[sagegrouse]

You have never fished with me..I keep the fish busy!

Surf-fishing on isolated sandbars that get inundated at high tide involves a lot of work and a careful eye on where the boat was anchored.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Georgia is potentially about to really take it on the chin. 119 deaths and 1800 confirmed cases today.

If only someone had broken through the bubble surrounding the state and shared with the governor earlier that asymptomatic transmission should be taken seriously.

[left_hook_lacey]

You have never fished with me..I keep the fish busy!

Based on a lot of your previous posts, I'd love to go fishing with you.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

This article doesn’t necessarily cover new ground but it does provide an interesting presentation of projected COVID peak by state, in order of projected date of peak. It uses the now widely-referenced IHME projections. The northeast is not the place to be. And that projected curve for ND is really bizarre, perhaps the result of loose restrictions.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...r-state-s-peak