PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[YmoBeThere]

Your source?

From the Texas Department of State Health Services official reporting dashboard:

New data will not be posted on this dashboard on Sunday, August 2 due to a scheduled upgrade to the system that processes electronic lab reports. Data for Sunday will be posted with Monday’s data update in the files on the Additional Data tab.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83

The counties within Texas will post their numbers and some websites are going county by county to aggregate that information. So, that 4,618 cases is an undercount. Texas has 254 counties and many of those are too small to have a webpage to post numbers and information but when there are so many, the numbers aren't insignificant to the total. If you are using Worldmeter, you can see that Bexar County didn't report anything yesterday. That has been 700+ on a typical day the last week or so.

I stand corrected. San Antonio, which includes the Bexar County numbers, announced 524 cases new cases yesterday. However, the total count of cases went down by 95 after they removed duplicates from prior dates in preparation for uploading to the new system. We've had several issues with data lately, which makes it very difficult to see exactly where we are at.

https://covid19.sanantonio.gov/About...ers-Table-Data

Important Notes on 8/2/2020:
Cases: Today, the City of San Antonio is reporting 524 new cases of COVID-19. However, in preparation for Metro Health converting to the Texas Health Trace data system this week, data files are being thoroughly re-screened for any possible duplicates. All positive COVID-19 results are reported to Metro Health, however if a person tests at several different facilities and there is variation in the name, date of birth, address or other identifying information that they provided, the case may have appeared separately in the data. As a result, the overall case total has decreased by 94.



16 Deaths Reported Today :Today, we are reporting 16 deaths relating to COVID-19. 13 deaths occurred between July 4 and July 22, but were only reported to Metro Health today.



Posted on 8/2/2020 at 7:00 PM.

[sagegrouse]

NC came in today with the lowest numbers in quite some time at 1,313.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases

This is the second lowest daily total since the end of June. Hospitalizations also declined for the 5th day in a row. Here's to hoping that NC is finally getting over the hump.

Eyeballing the intra-day totals by state, today may be quite a bit lower than last Monday in terms of new cases. Hope so. Now if only the number of deaths will begin a steep descent...

[CDu]

Eyeballing the intra-day totals by state, today may be quite a bit lower than last Monday in terms of new cases. Hope so. Now if only the number of deaths will begin a steep descent...

Yep, still waiting on data from Texas and California (California in particular is annoying with their trickling in of data throughout the day). But Florida is currently several thousand new cases below last Monday's total. So that alone should indicate we'll be down from last Monday. I'd venture that Texas and California will add another ~10K cases (in addition to the 3800 California has already reported) by the end of the day. But it certainly does look like the total will be much lower than last Monday's. Which makes sense: if the 3 most populous states see a decline, the nation as a whole is likely to as well.

Thankfully, so far the rust belt states haven't spiked back upwards (at least not yet) given their upwards trend of the past week. Michigan and Illinois have reported more cases today than last Monday, but not by a lot. Hopefully they aren't about to see their second wave just as Florida/Texas/Arizona/California are seeing their first wave die down.

[tbyers11]

Eyeballing the intra-day totals by state, today may be quite a bit lower than last Monday in terms of new cases. Hope so. Now if only the number of deaths will begin a steep descent...

Florida's total case numbers are going to be lower than the values of the last few weeks for most of this week as many of the state run testing sites (all of those in South Florida and up the Atlantic coast and Orlando area) have been closed since last TH afternoon due to potential severe weather from Isaias. Thankfully, we were spared any damage and the sites are supposed to re-open tomorrow or Wed.

For reference the total number of positive cases reported by FL today was 4,866 but that was on only 60,994 tests. For reference, the average weekday numbers last week in FL was about 9500 positive tests on 90,000 total tests. The % positive tests trended down the last 2 days (~9%) vs last week (~11%) so that is a hopeful sign but I wanted to provide some context for the low absolute value of positive tests in FL today.

[niveklaen]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#398eb62e19fd

I had seen stuff before claiming that kid under 10 almost never spread the disease and that we should open up k-4 schools for this reason, but this article suggests that kids spread the disease more readily than adults. I am not a doctor - can one of our learned gentlemen weigh in on whether kids are vectors?

[CDu]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#398eb62e19fd

I had seen stuff before claiming that kid under 10 almost never spread the disease and that we should open up k-4 schools for this reason, but this article suggests that kids spread the disease more readily than adults. I am not a doctor - can one of our learned gentlemen weigh in on whether kids are vectors?

It is certainly true in pneumococcal disease. We are still learning about COVID, but it would not be shocking if kids are efficient spreaders of COVID too.

[DukieInKansas]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#398eb62e19fd

I had seen stuff before claiming that kid under 10 almost never spread the disease and that we should open up k-4 schools for this reason, but this article suggests that kids spread the disease more readily than adults. I am not a doctor - can one of our learned gentlemen weigh in on whether kids are vectors?

It is certainly true in pneumococcal disease. We are still learning about COVID, but it would not be shocking if kids are efficient spreaders of COVID too.

This will sound strange but in conversation with someone this weekend, they mentioned younger children don't spread it as much due to height differential. So, as long as you aren't picking them up or leaning over to hug them, the transmission can be limited somewhat - not totally - since they are probably talking to and breathing on your thighs and knees. Don't know if this is true but I can see it making sense logistically - but you would want to continue the suggested safety measures - mask, hand washing, etc.

Thoughts?

[Skydog]

This will sound strange but in conversation with someone this weekend, they mentioned younger children don't spread it as much due to height differential. So, as long as you aren't picking them up or leaning over to hug them, the transmission can be limited somewhat - not totally - since they are probably talking to and breathing on your thighs and knees. Don't know if this is true but I can see it making sense logistically - but you would want to continue the suggested safety measures - mask, hand washing, etc.

Thoughts?

Re height: might be relevant for brief encounters but if you are going to be inside a room with kids for long periods (school, home), especially with normal ac and heating, the circulation and recirculation of air will likely make height moot.

[OldPhiKap]

Good Lord — just start the Rapture already:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/us/zo...rnd/index.html

'Zombie cicadas' under the influence of a mind controlling fungus have returned to West Virginia

[cato]

Good Lord — just start the Rapture already:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/us/zo...rnd/index.html

Doooood. Ixnay on the apturere!

[DukieInKansas]

Good Lord — just start the Rapture already:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/us/zo...rnd/index.html

If we are heading toward the rapture, can we set up a DBR gathering? There are a few of you, probably more than a few, that I would like to visit/meet. Perhaps a long weekend somewhere.

[Skydog]

“A reverse natural experiment happened in Switzerland. On May 27, the Swiss national government banned outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated. On June 11, the Swiss government revoked the ban, and on June 23 the death rate reverted to what it had been beforehand. People who die from COVID-19 live about three to five weeks from the start of symptoms, which makes the evidence of a causal relation in these experiments strong.”

Data (rough counts from looking at data quickly, may be some errors) —

May 20-27: 18 deaths, ~2.25 per day
May 27: HQ banned.
May 28-June 10: 17 deaths over 12 days, ~ 1.5/day
June 11 Ban lifted.
June 11-23: 12 days, 20 deaths, ~1.67/day (Most days had 0 to 2 deaths).
June 24 - July 23: 16 deaths, ~0.5 per day

So roughly deaths at 2 deaths/day week before ban, 1.5/d during couple weeks immediately following ban and .5/d after that.
That means death rates dropped both after ban was instituted and again after lifted. It also shows his statement “Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated” is 100% false.
Why the gradual drop in deaths from May through June? Likely the effect of new cases dropping from 50/day at beginning of may to 10/day by early June.
I don’t have energy to read all of this but in this section at least he grossly misrepresented data and I would say outright lied. If this doctor is spreading misinformation purposefully during this pandemic he should be censured.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/switzerland/

[OldPhiKap]

If we are heading toward the rapture, can we set up a DBR gathering? There are a few of you, probably more than a few, that I would like to visit/meet. Perhaps a long weekend somewhere.

I’ll bring the mashed taters and some smoked meat. (But grab whatever CB&B smokes first — trust me).

[DukieInKansas]

I’ll bring the mashed taters and some smoked meat. (But grab whatever CB&B smokes first — trust me).

I'll bring gravy and several baked desserts.

[OldPhiKap]

I'll bring gravy and several baked desserts.

Given that it’s The End Times, I’ll even keep my I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing about smooth peanut butter to a minimum.

[devildeac]

NC came in today with the lowest numbers in quite some time at 1,313.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases

This is the second lowest daily total since the end of June. Hospitalizations also declined for the 5th day in a row. Here's to hoping that NC is finally getting over the hump.

No worry, Labor Day is only a few weeks away...

[swood1000]

“A reverse natural experiment happened in Switzerland. On May 27, the Swiss national government banned outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated. On June 11, the Swiss government revoked the ban, and on June 23 the death rate reverted to what it had been beforehand. People who die from COVID-19 live about three to five weeks from the start of symptoms, which makes the evidence of a causal relation in these experiments strong.”

Data (rough counts from looking at data quickly, may be some errors) —

May 20-27: 18 deaths, ~2.25 per day
May 27: HQ banned.
May 28-June 10: 17 deaths over 12 days, ~ 1.5/day
June 11 Ban lifted.
June 11-23: 12 days, 20 deaths, ~1.67/day (Most days had 0 to 2 deaths).
June 24 - July 23: 16 deaths, ~0.5 per day

So roughly deaths at 2 deaths/day week before ban, 1.5/d during couple weeks immediately following ban and .5/d after that.
That means death rates dropped both after ban was instituted and again after lifted. It also shows his statement “Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated” is 100% false.
Why the gradual drop in deaths from May through June? Likely the effect of new cases dropping from 50/day at beginning of may to 10/day by early June.
I don’t have energy to read all of this but in this section at least he grossly misrepresented data and I would say outright lied. If this doctor is spreading misinformation purposefully during this pandemic he should be censured.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/switzerland/

Apparently he used data from Johns Hopkins:

[Tripping William]

If we are heading toward the rapture, can we set up a DBR gathering? There are a few of you, probably more than a few, that I would like to visit/meet. Perhaps a long weekend somewhere.

I’ll bring the mashed taters and some smoked meat. (But grab whatever CB&B smokes first — trust me).

I'll bring gravy and several baked desserts.

Given that it’s The End Times, I’ll even keep my I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing about smooth peanut butter to a minimum.

Say, Sturgis, South Dakota, beginning on Friday?

[Skydog]

Apparently he used data from Johns Hopkins:

In the article his exact words were "Around June 10 COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold" which was completely untrue. That Johns Hopkins graph is the ratio of "Index of New Dead/New Cases Resolved" whatever that is. Maybe one of the docs can chime in.

[OldPhiKap]

Say, Sturgis, South Dakota, beginning on Friday?

Sturgis is in some beautiful rolling hills. Someone is looking for a reason to go to NORTH Dakota, though, so maybe Pierre?