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  1. #3121
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Boris Johnson's case of Covid is getting worse. He has been taken to the hospital. Whoa...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/brit...-symptoms.html
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #3122
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Boris Johnson's case of Covid is getting worse. He has been taken to the hospital. Whoa...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/brit...-symptoms.html
    We're bound to see some deaths in the ranks of global politicians and business leaders before this is all over given it's mortality profile. It was late but they do seem to have up a bubble around US leadership now, FWIW.

  3. #3123
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    As I understand it, the way they determine the effect on society in a particular year of a disease such as the flu is by comparing the expected number of deaths without the disease with the number that actually died. This is all done by statisticians, and has the effect of excluding the people who would have died anyway that year but who also just happened to have the flu (along with all their other infirmities). So we wonít know the official effect of Covid-19 until after itís over and they do this calculation. On the one hand the current count is too low because some were left out, as the story says, but on the other hand itís inflated because some of those people would have died this year anyway of other causes.

    Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London scientist whose research about the enormous number of deaths there might be in Britain, told Parliament that the deaths of those who would have died anyway before the end of the year ďmight be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or who have underlying conditions.Ē
    That article is now almost two weeks old - a lot has changed. I'm not going to argue statistics with you because I frankly find these discussions to be really pointless (lies, damn lies, statistics). But I think at this point the contrarian argument of "it's not that bad" or "these people would have died anyway" has been debunked. People of all ages are getting sick and dying from this. And a lot of that is the second order effect of doctors, nurses, cops, etc. The whole thing might seem very imaginary for those in less hard hit areas of the country, but here in New York, it is very real and scary (I write as I hear yet another set of ambulance sirens go by my apartment and reply to a text from a fairly healthy 30-year old mother of three who is like family to me who thinks she has it and is awaiting testing).

  4. #3124
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by chrishoke View Post
    Great news. How quickly can it be mass produced for the entire U.S. population.
    Mass producing a vaccine is a much bigger project because hundreds of millions of doses have to be created. It would seem that the situation with a monoclonal antibody would be different since it only gives eight to ten weeks of protection and so probably would find the greatest use with those who are already infected.

    Prior to the development of a vaccine, if 86% of those who become infected have minor or no symptoms those people should probably be left to develop their own immunity naturally and itís only the remainder who would benefit from monoclonal antibody treatment. As far as large-scale production is concerned there are a number of different methods but the time it would take would start at six weeks for a relatively small amount. More info is available at the Distributed Bio website.

  5. #3125
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    That article is now almost two weeks old - a lot has changed. I'm not going to argue statistics with you because I frankly find these discussions to be really pointless (lies, damn lies, statistics). But I think at this point the contrarian argument of "it's not that bad" or "these people would have died anyway" has been debunked. People of all ages are getting sick and dying from this. And a lot of that is the second order effect of doctors, nurses, cops, etc. The whole thing might seem very imaginary for those in less hard hit areas of the country, but here in New York, it is very real and scary (I write as I hear yet another set of ambulance sirens go by my apartment and reply to a text from a fairly healthy 30-year old mother of three who is like family to me who thinks she has it and is awaiting testing).
    Yep. Even with social distancing assumed through May, the expected COVID death toll in NY state is around 16,000 (they are already over 4,000). In other words, about half the ANNUAL death toll for the flu... for the entire US. And it will achieve that within a single month, rather than the 6-month flu season. The combination of lack of immunity and a more severe virus has made this a VERY big deal. There is a reason pretty much every country with significant number of cases has gone on lockdown.

  6. #3126
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    That article is now almost two weeks old - a lot has changed. I'm not going to argue statistics with you because I frankly find these discussions to be really pointless (lies, damn lies, statistics). But I think at this point the contrarian argument of "it's not that bad" or "these people would have died anyway" has been debunked. People of all ages are getting sick and dying from this. And a lot of that is the second order effect of doctors, nurses, cops, etc. The whole thing might seem very imaginary for those in less hard hit areas of the country, but here in New York, it is very real and scary (I write as I hear yet another set of ambulance sirens go by my apartment and reply to a text from a fairly healthy 30-year old mother of three who is like family to me who thinks she has it and is awaiting testing).
    My only point is that when people look back in the history books at the number of deaths attributable to Covid-19 the number they see there will be calculated the same way flu deaths are calculated. If the death rate is fairly constant at X per year and the year of Covid-19 the number of deaths is X+Y, then Y is the number that will be attributed to Covid-19. Granted, itís a little more complicated than that but I think thatís basically how they do it. The result is to exclude from the Covid-19 total the number who would have died that year anyway.

  7. #3127
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    My only point is that when people look back in the history books at the number of deaths attributable to Covid-19 the number they see there will be calculated the same way flu deaths are calculated. If the death rate is fairly constant at X per year and the year of Covid-19 the number of deaths is X+Y, then Y is the number that will be attributed to Covid-19. Granted, itís a little more complicated than that but I think thatís basically how they do it. The result is to exclude from the Covid-19 total the number who would have died that year anyway.
    When I google 'swood' this is the first thing that comes up:

    Swood is a type of leather, actually, made from the skin of a unicorn. It was extremely popular amongst the upper class in the early 90's. Unfortunately, with everybody wanting to be the swoodest person around, the unicorn went extinct.

  8. #3128
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Best wishes to Boris Johnson. The 55-YO prime minister tested positive for coronavirus ten days ago. Today (April 5) he was admitted to the hospital for "tests." I hope so, but the progression of the disease seems to be that the second week brings the lung and respiratory problems and potentially grave consequences. We'll doubtless hear more on this subject from the ever-watchful UK media.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  9. #3129
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    My only point is that when people look back in the history books at the number of deaths attributable to Covid-19 the number they see there will be calculated the same way flu deaths are calculated. If the death rate is fairly constant at X per year and the year of Covid-19 the number of deaths is X+Y, then Y is the number that will be attributed to Covid-19. Granted, itís a little more complicated than that but I think thatís basically how they do it. The result is to exclude from the Covid-19 total the number who would have died that year anyway.
    This definitely isnít how they do it in the US. The CDC website lays out how they do it for flu. It is a series of calculations based off of flu hospitalizations (to estimate hospitalized deaths due to the flu) and death certificates (to estimate nonhospitalized flu deaths). So the death counts you are seeing now for the US are almost certainly underestimates (because we probably donít have all the nonhospitalized deaths) and not overestimates.

    It also isnít how the WHO does it. The approach you have outlined may be true for the UK, but I donít think it is how most places do it. Especially not for the flu, which happens every year. So if they used this approach to estimate annual flu deaths, there would be by definition years in which the flu kills a negative number of people.

  10. #3130
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Lions and tigers and... oh my! Even the big cats at the Bronx zoo caught the virus.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/05/u...rnd/index.html
    ďCoach said no 3s.Ē - Zion on The Block

  11. #3131
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    Lions and tigers and... oh my! Even the big cats at the Bronx zoo caught the virus.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/05/u...rnd/index.html
    Who you got? Sharks with laser beams attached to their heads or coronavirus tigers?

  12. #3132
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Who you got? Sharks with laser beams attached to their heads or coronavirus tigers?
    Both should watch out for Carol Baskin!

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