PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[-jk]

I suppose this is a real world test of the vaccines' true efficacy. It's the immune compromised who can't take a vax or have low response that are most screwed.

-jk

[LasVegas]

The CDC recommendations are only for the fully vaccinated. Fully vaccinated is 2 weeks post the second shot. Less than half of all North Carolinians are fully vaccinated right now. It is not going against CDC recommendations to still require masks. If I were a Governor, I would announce that I will remove mask mandates 2 weeks after my state reaches 70% of the adult population with their 2nd shot (or 1st of J&J). I would hope that announcement would encourage more people to get their shots.

So the CDC says I don’t have to wear a mask but the business says I do because why? I guess I just don’t understand how a business would know better than the CDC in regards to masks. Just a strange world to live in right now.

[cato]

What do small businesses need to do other than not require people to wear masks? Not trying to sound ignorant. I just don’t know.

Businesses, small and otherwise, need to comply with all sorts of workplace safety laws. For starters, the CDC ain’t gonna do a site visit. OSHA might.

The CDC might be leading the charge on changing mask requirements, but there are quite a few other and very relevant authorities that need to follow suit.

[cato]

So the CDC says I don’t have to wear a mask but the business says I do because why? I guess I just don’t understand how a business would know better than the CDC in regards to masks. Just a strange world to live in right now.

You are not listening to the CDC. They say you don’t need to wear a mask in most situations, but if a business wants to require you to wear a mask, you have to comply with their “no shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service” requirements.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So the CDC says I don’t have to wear a mask but the business says I do because why? I guess I just don’t understand how a business would know better than the CDC in regards to masks. Just a strange world to live in right now.

Maybe someone is unvaccinated or immunocompromised? Maybe someone cares for high risk folks? There's a billion reasons.

[Skydog]

Maybe someone is unvaccinated or immunocompromised? Maybe someone cares for high risk folks? There's a billion reasons.

You have 999,999,998 to go.

[rsvman]

The Guardian: Delay in giving second jabs of Pfizer vaccine improves immunity.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...roves-immunity

"A study led by the University of Birmingham in collaboration with Public Health England found that antibodies against the virus were three-and-a-half times higher in those who had the second shot after 12 weeks compared with those who had it after a three-week interval." [For over 80s, I believe]

This is not surprising to me at all. In fact, I'm pretty sure I predicted this earlier in the thread. It has been true for almost every two- or three-dose vaccine ever studied.
But we also were pressed for time to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible. Also, increasing the time between shots predictably decreases the percentage of people who complete the vaccine series.

[Rich]

Yep, I agree and so does the CDC with their bombshell release that "anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities -- large or small -- without wearing a mask or physical distancing."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/healt...mIEn50eSqULuSQ

Seems like a gamechanger as it relates to guidance to me...Could have major impacts at the state and local levels, I expect.

It's over?

[Bostondevil]

So the CDC says I don’t have to wear a mask but the business says I do because why? I guess I just don’t understand how a business would know better than the CDC in regards to masks. Just a strange world to live in right now.

Because we aren't doing vaccine passports. Nobody but you knows that you are vaccinated. Businesses have to weigh the risks between protecting their employees and attracting customers (and employees.) Even with the good news regarding the vaccine rollout in the US, less than half the eligible population are fully vaccinated, that means more than half the people are still completely vulnerable to a potentially deadly disease. I would wait until less than half the people are still completely vulnerable to take away one of the protective measures. Making the mandates two-tiered will not work.

[Stray Gator]

As just reported on the local news here in Orlando, Disney World and Universal announced late today that as of tomorrow masks will no longer be required in outdoor areas of their theme parks; the face covering requirement will continue to apply to indoor spaces, such as theaters, shops, or restaurants, and will also remain in effect for rides or similar attractions from the time the guests enter the line until they exit. (Coincidentally, we spent today at the Magic Kingdom entertaining our granddaughter, and there was no hint of the impending change in policy.) In addition, those news reports indicated that Publix supermarkets and Walmart stores, among others, are dropping the facemask requirement for fully vaccinated customers and employees starting tomorrow.

Now it's beginning to feel like dramatic changes are underway. And I suspect that the changes are going to create uncomfortable situations and difficult dilemmas for business owners who must reconcile the relaxed CDC guidelines with the reluctance of some vaccinated customers and employees to expose themselves through interaction with potential carriers of the virus indoors without masks, notwithstanding the diminished likelihood of developing severe COVID symptoms. This could prove particularly problematic here in Florida, where the Governor has prohibited any proof-of-vaccination requirement.

[OldPhiKap]

It's over?

Trading in your mask for a boot?

[LasVegas]

You are not listening to the CDC. They say you don’t need to wear a mask in most situations, but if a business wants to require you to wear a mask, you have to comply with their “no shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service” requirements.

I honestly had no idea the CDC has left it up to individual businesses to decide whether to require masks or not. I guess I missed that part of the memo.

[LasVegas]

Maybe someone is unvaccinated or immunocompromised? Maybe someone cares for high risk folks? There's a billion reasons.

There are a ton of nasty things out there that could potentially kill these types of people. We would have to mask forever to protect them

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Why would the CDC do this now? Seems to me they’re playing with fire. They’ve taken the flashpoint issue of mask wearing and supercharged it. How many of the non-vaccinated are going to wear a mask indoors and thereby announce to the world that they are indeed unvaccinated? And even if they do want to wear one, will they be dissuaded from doing so since the CDC has now essentially turned masks into a visible declaration of a person’s vax status? I just know that if and when I walk into Publix this week, I’m going to see very few masks even though the percentages would tell me only about half the people in there qualify to be unmasked. I’m fully vaxxed, but I hate the idea that some jackhole could still cause me to get really sick.

[sagegrouse]

So the CDC says I don’t have to wear a mask but the business says I do because why? I guess I just don’t understand how a business would know better than the CDC in regards to masks. Just a strange world to live in right now.

Businesses, small and otherwise, need to comply with all sorts of workplace safety laws. For starters, the CDC ain’t gonna do a site visit. OSHA might.

The CDC might be leading the charge on changing mask requirements, but there are quite a few other and very relevant authorities that need to follow suit.

The business may know its customers are a bunch of lyin' weasels who will falsely claim vaccination.

[sagegrouse]

The seven-day average for new cases is 35,100 -- the lowest since September 12. A drop of another 200 in the average will make it the lowest for new cases since June 25. These numbers would be only 13 percent of the January 11 peak.

Deaths are averaging 627, the lowest since last July. Another 20 percent drop would make the figures the lowest since the first surge of COVID-19 in March 2020.

[Bostondevil]

There are a ton of nasty things out there that could potentially kill these types of people. We would have to mask forever to protect them

People who refuse vaccines for covid and/or flu shots should be masking up forever. I'm not optimistic that they will, but they should. The most vulnerable among us who can't be vaccinated for medical reasons are going to be masking up forever or staying home, just like always.

[tbyers11]

There are a ton of nasty things out there that could potentially kill these types of people. We would have to mask forever to protect them

We cannot go on forever for everything, but a little while longer specifically for COVID could make a huge difference in terms of community transmission which would make immunocompromised or kids under 12 much safer. I agree with what BostonDevil said about 50% of total population or something like 70% of adults fully vaccinated.

However, I'd even take those numbers for first shot. We are currently at 59.1% of adults and 46.8% total nationwide with 1 shot. Which means in about a month we will likely hit 50% total (bump from 12-15) and ~62% adult with first vaccination.

There is clear data from Israel and UK that when they hit low 50s for total vaccination percentage that cases/transmission (and hospitalization) really plummeted. This was mid-March for Israel. They got below 50 cases per 100,000 per week (8/day) and kept going down. This is the threshold to drop from substantial (orange) to moderate (yellow) transmission category for CDC. To me this is a quantifiable value that is quite near at hand. However, if you look at graph (from May 9th) the US is already flattening their case descent when we are at ~85 per 100,000/week (12/day). Link to larger picture

us israel cases.jpg

I think 1 more month and we would have gotten a large enough mass vaccinated where we could get and stay at moderate transmission or below and not have any more mini-waves of transmission. Now, I am not doom and gloom. I think we will get to moderate transmission and no more mini-bumps win 2-3 months regardless. But I guess I look at public health for the goal of the entire population and 1 more month would likely "flatten the curve" (remember that) permanently and make safer for all.

[YmoBeThere]

We cannot go on forever for everything, but a little while longer specifically for COVID could make a huge difference in terms of community transmission which would make immunocompromised or kids under 12 much safer. I agree with what BostonDevil said about 50% of total population or something like 70% of adults fully vaccinated.

However, I'd even take those numbers for first shot. We are currently at 59.1% of adults and 46.8% total nationwide with 1 shot. Which means in about a month we will likely hit 50% total (bump from 12-15) and ~62% adult with first vaccination.

There is clear data from Israel and UK that when they hit low 50s for total vaccination percentage that cases/transmission (and hospitalization) really plummeted. This was mid-March for Israel. They got below 50 cases per 100,000 per week (8/day) and kept going down. This is the threshold to drop from substantial (orange) to moderate (yellow) transmission category for CDC. To me this is a quantifiable value that is quite near at hand. However, if you look at graph (from May 9th) the US is already flattening their case descent when we are at ~85 per 100,000/week (12/day). Link to larger picture

us israel cases.jpg

I think 1 more month and we would have gotten a large enough mass vaccinated where we could get and stay at moderate transmission or below and not have any more mini-waves of transmission. Now, I am not doom and gloom. I think we will get to moderate transmission and no more mini-bumps win 2-3 months regardless. But I guess I look at public health for the goal of the entire population and 1 more month would likely "flatten the curve" (remember that) permanently and make safer for all.

Yes, I think the guidance change from the CDC was poorly done. They should have laid out the case as you have and put the mark out there at least a couple weeks, Memorial Day.

[aimo]

Went to Food Lion this morning. they have dropped the mask requirement for customers but kept it for employees. the only people in the store NOT wearing masks this morning were three Durham Firefighters. Rather disappointed in them.

Going out to eat w/family for the first time in over a year. With seating limits gone and "graduation" going on in Crapel Hell, I fear a full house. Will wear mask when not eating.