PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[ClemmonsDevil]

Yep, pretty similar to some other indicators for me, like political stances and whether or not you eat your steak with ketchup.

100%.

[PackMan97]

If omicron is different enough from delta that it evades immunity from that previous variant, what happens if a future variant comes along that’s evolved from delta and not omicron? It’s not unreasonable to expect a whole new wave.

We can handle Omicron waves. It's not pleasant, but it's manageable.

What is the problem is if we get another Delta.

Omicron is "the flu" as most of us know it.

[PackMan97]

You're a better person than me. The portion of my personal Venn diagram including "friends" and "anti-vaxers" is but the barest of slivers at this point (if it's even that big).

I'd be shocked if my wife ever got another booster. She's had really bad heart related side effects after her second shot and her booster. Basically heart rate staying up in the 120 range for better part of 24 hours. She's done with these mRNA vaccines, in particular with the low incident of severe hospitalizations for omicron.

[Bluedog]

We can handle Omicron waves. It's not pleasant, but it's manageable.

What is the problem is if we get another Delta.

Omicron is "the flu" as most of us know it.

Ironically, Omicron from a "disease severity" perspective might not be as bad as delta, but from a societal impact, it has been HUGE and frankly worse than Delta in my experience. I feel like we don't talk about societal impacts, but having kids miss 20+ days of school, children miss childcare impacting parents, people not being able to go to their jobs, cancellations galor of things because of infections, etc. has big economic and social-emotional impacts, and disrupts a fully "functioning" society. (And this time it wasn't government "shutting things down" like we saw early in the pandemic (by and large). Hospitalizations and deaths aren't the only "bad" things that occur (And deaths are actually quite high right now, higher than delta, no? Because of the HUGE number of infections certainly). Of course, this impact varies greatly depending on circumstances and the policies that institutions have in place like close contacts, periods of isolation/quarantine, testing rules, etc. If we treated omicron "like the flu" as you say, then the societal impact would be lessened certainly, but the disease impact would likely be worsened. Nobody knows the balance...

[BlueDevil2K]

(And deaths are actually quite high right now, higher than delta, no?

Not higher than Delta, but similar (so far). Cases in orange, deaths in red.

Screenshot 2022-01-20 170429.jpg

[MChambers]

Ironically, Omicron from a "disease severity" perspective might not be as bad as delta, but from a societal impact, it has been HUGE and frankly worse than Delta in my experience. I feel like we don't talk about societal impacts, but having kids miss 20+ days of school, children miss childcare impacting parents, people not being able to go to their jobs, cancellations galor of things because of infections, etc. has big economic and social-emotional impacts, and disrupts a fully "functioning" society. (And this time it wasn't government "shutting things down" like we saw early in the pandemic (by and large). Hospitalizations and deaths aren't the only "bad" things that occur (And deaths are actually quite high right now, higher than delta, no? Because of the HUGE number of infections certainly). Of course, this impact varies greatly depending on circumstances and the policies that institutions have in place like close contacts, periods of isolation/quarantine, testing rules, etc. If we treated omicron "like the flu" as you say, then the societal impact would be lessened certainly, but the disease impact would likely be worsened. Nobody knows the balance...

Yep. And on an individual level, it's not like the flu if you're not vaccinated, or you're over 65, have other co-morbidities, or are immunocompromised. That's why 2000 people are dying in the US every day.

And while it may not be as deadly as Delta, it is as deadly as the original wild type covid, or Alpha.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Yep. And on an individual level, it's not like the flu if you're not vaccinated, or you're over 65, have other co-morbidities, or are immunocompromised. That's why 2000 people are dying in the US every day.

And while it may not be as deadly as Delta, it is as deadly as the original wild type covid, or Alpha.

Oh if this was what hit in the first wave we would have absolute panic in the streets. The response is less than that only because this is 2 years in now and people are stupid and also used to the horror.

[Bluedog]

Oh if this was what hit in the first wave we would have absolute panic in the streets. The response is less than that only because this is 2 years in now and people are stupid and also used to the horror.

We also have vaccines now that are very effective against severe disease/death. I think that's a HUGE difference.

[ClemmonsDevil]

We also have vaccines now that are very effective against severe disease/death. I think that's a HUGE difference.

Absolutely correct. We are lucky this wasn't the first iteration.

[wilson]

I'd be shocked if my wife ever got another booster. She's had really bad heart related side effects after her second shot and her booster. Basically heart rate staying up in the 120 range for better part of 24 hours. She's done with these mRNA vaccines, in particular with the low incident of severe hospitalizations for omicron.

This is not the same as the anti-vax sentiment I was speaking of, and is understandable. Those with conditions that might be worsened or compromised by the vaccines, especially those who have direct personal experience thereof, are far more entitled to a decision like this than those who choose to remain unvaccinated because of freedom or "I just don't know what's in it" or whatever.

[OldPhiKap]

Yep, pretty similar to some other indicators for me, like political stances and whether or not you eat your steak with ketchup.

Folks that eat steaks with ketchup probably also order them cooked well-done.

Monsters. I’ll take the anti-vaxxers instead, at least you can spot the crazy when you first meet them.

[Bostondevil]

My unvaccinated older brother who was hospitalized with covid back in the fall (delta variant) sent me an article that discussed a study about myocarditis after covid vaccination in young males and asked my opinion. I couldn't read the original study because it was behind a paywall and no, I will not be paying for studies referenced in articles sent to me by my unvaccinated brother. I looked up the credentials of the author instead. I told him that he did the right thing, bring an article written by someone with no background in public health to someone who has an extensive background in public health. I then explained the concept of relative risk to him and told him about how many more young men have myocarditis as a complication from covid than as a complication from the vaccine. I explained how myocarditis after vaccine is, on average, much less severe than myocarditis as a complication from covid. And then I used my football and brain damage analogy to talk about our perception of long term risks. I've been reading studies on other causes of myocarditis recently - fun fact - more young men suffer myocarditis as a result of playing football than as a result of covid vaccination.

Alas, his intention in bringing me this article was - well, I don't know what it was, but it wasn't to actually get my opinion. He is misinformed about public health and vaccines in the ways you would expect an unvaccinated person to be misinformed. He checks all the boxes off in his rants. It's not fun, but I never call him an idiot or a moron. I did, however, get miffed when started with the whole, "this author is from Stanford" nonsense. Dude - my public health career has been spent entirely at Harvard.

Mom, he hit me first!

[ClemmonsDevil]

Dude - my public health career has been spent entirely at Harvard.

Mom, he hit me first!

Ah. The Stanford of the East.

[Matches]

Folks that eat steaks with ketchup probably also order them cooked well-done.

Monsters. I’ll take the anti-vaxxers instead, at least you can spot the crazy when you first meet them.

The ventilator is a dead giveaway.

To be clear, I wish everyone well regardless of their vaccination status. The adamant anti-vaxxers, though, have tested the limit of that sentiment over this past year.

[Bostondevil]

Ah. The Stanford of the East.

Indeed.

But Stanford does not have a school of public health.

[Skydog]

My unvaccinated older brother who was hospitalized with covid back in the fall (delta variant) sent me an article that discussed a study about myocarditis after covid vaccination in young males and asked my opinion. I couldn't read the original study because it was behind a paywall and no, I will not be paying for studies referenced in articles sent to me by my unvaccinated brother. I looked up the credentials of the author instead. I told him that he did the right thing, bring an article written by someone with no background in public health to someone who has an extensive background in public health. I then explained the concept of relative risk to him and told him about how many more young men have myocarditis as a complication from covid than as a complication from the vaccine. I explained how myocarditis after vaccine is, on average, much less severe than myocarditis as a complication from covid. And then I used my football and brain damage analogy to talk about our perception of long term risks. I've been reading studies on other causes of myocarditis recently - fun fact - more young men suffer myocarditis as a result of playing football than as a result of covid vaccination.

Alas, his intention in bringing me this article was - well, I don't know what it was, but it wasn't to actually get my opinion. He is misinformed about public health and vaccines in the ways you would expect an unvaccinated person to be misinformed. He checks all the boxes off in his rants. It's not fun, but I never call him an idiot or a moron. I did, however, get miffed when started with the whole, "this author is from Stanford" nonsense. Dude - my public health career has been spent entirely at Harvard.

Mom, he hit me first!

Have him watch the clip circulating a few days ago when this issue came up on Joe Rogan. Seriously. You may have seen it but if not Rogan makes a false claim about myocarditis rates in young people for vaccines vs covid and is corrected by the health expert he is interviewing. Rogan insists he’s right, calls for a live on air fact check and ends up with egg on his face. In fact the expert points out the problems with an early preprint article the Rogan cites - it may be the same study your bro sent.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Indeed.

But Stanford does not have a school of public health.

Girl you know I was kidding.

[bundabergdevil]

Indeed.

But Stanford does not have a school of public health.

Sure they do. The E. Holmes School of Blood n' Stuff. Every graduate gets a world class degree in BS!

[Bostondevil]

Girl you know I was kidding.

Indeed, I did.

Stanford still doesn't have a school of public health.

[Bostondevil]

Sure they do. The E. Holmes School of Blood n' Stuff. Every graduate gets a world class degree in BS!

Elizabeth Holmes dropped out of Stanford. Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard. I'd say that puts Harvard in the lead but Marc Zuckerburg also dropped out of Harvard. It's probably a tie.

Which means Duke wins.