PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Stray Gator]

I don't recall seeing this posted, so I'll offer it here as an interesting resource:

The Worldometer, with a running count of vital (and not-so-vital) statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/

A specific Worldometer count for COVID-19 statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[ChemGod]

They tested 3,063 out of 3,711 people. So, even if you assume that 100% of non-tested people had it (very unlikely), you still have 70% or so of total that didn't get it (or I suppose one could argue that some got it after the testing was complete and none of them ever reported back as ill -- also unlikely).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-thirds-passengers-coronavirus-stricken-154241522.html

[freshmanjs]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-thirds-passengers-coronavirus-stricken-154241522.html

That is a different ship.

[DtrainBuckshot]

Why can't Google and Apple use their map timeline history to track people who have tested positive and contact those who they may have come into contact with? IE patient x is positive and was at Target on Tuesday at 1:30, so alert everyone else who was there at the same time.
Seems like a better project for Google than the ones they are discussing.

[BD80]

The latest little clinical tidbit, taken from a study done in Wuhan that has not yet been peer-reviewed:

The study compared rates of blood types A, B, and O in the general population in Wuhan and then compared that with the blood types of the people with a known diagnosis of COVID-19. What they found was that blood type A was over-represented, and that blood types B and O were slightly underrepresented in the patient population.

What this suggests is that blood group antigens may have some protective role for people with type B or type O blood (no information about people with AB). It looks like perhaps anti-blood group A antibody may play a slight protective role. To my review of the data, it looks like people with blood type B are in the most luck; they have only anti-A antibody circulating. People with type A have only anti-type B circulating; these people appear to be at slightly higher risk. People with blood type O have both anti-A and anti-B antibody circulating; anti-A seems helpful. It is unclear whether anti-B might be slightly unhelpful, but blood group O patients were still underrepresented in the patient population.

As mentioned, this has not been peer-reviewed and there has been no confirmation of this from other areas of the world yet. Also, the amount of "over-representation" and "under-representation" was not huge, and people of all blood types remain at risk for disease.

If this turns out to be true, there is precedent for this phenomenon, too, most notably with susceptibility to norovirus infection, in which blood group antigen plays a much larger role in susceptibility.

I hate to B-

but will my pessimistic rh factor undo the value of my anti-A antibodies? At less than 2% of the population, I doubt there is any meaningful data.

[OldPhiKap]

I hate to B-

but will my pessimistic rh factor undo the value of my anti-A antibodies? At less than 2% of the population, I doubt there is any meaningful data.

O I see what you did there.

[rsvman]

I hate to B-

but will my pessimistic rh factor undo the value of my anti-A antibodies? At less than 2% of the population, I doubt there is any meaningful data.

Unknown, and I am also O positive, so I hope the Rh thing is irrelevant (or maybe also helpful).

[ChemGod]

That is a different ship.

Really? I thought at the time the ships pulled in our total testing numbers were less than that.

Can you provide source of your data, which ship, etc?

Still waiting to hear back re: metrics as well.

[freshmanjs]

Really? I thought at the time the ships pulled in our total testing numbers were less than that.

Can you provide source of your data, which ship, etc?

Still waiting to hear back re: metrics as well.

Here is an extensive report on the ship.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...773v2.full.pdf

I have no idea what you are waiting for? If you mean support for my totally obvious statement that number of hospitalizations isn't the only objective metric we have for Italy, we also have number of positive tests.

[Phredd3]

They tested 3,063 out of 3,711 people. So, even if you assume that 100% of non-tested people had it (very unlikely), you still have 70% or so of total that didn't get it (or I suppose one could argue that some got it after the testing was complete and none of them ever reported back as ill -- also unlikely).

But didn't the ship effectively confine everyone once the diagnosis was confirmed? I thought they confined passengers to their quarters during the remainder of the voyage. Doesn't that pretty much amount to effective social distancing? Or am I not recalling correctly what happened?

[Reddevil]

It has been suggested that due to so many people sheltering in place, there will be another baby boom beginning in 2021. I predict that generation will come to be known as coronials.

[bundabergdevil]

It has been suggested that due to so many people sheltering in place, there will be another baby boom beginning in 2021. I predict that generation will come to be known as coronials.

I had also previously soon posted here the quaran-teens. I'll add Gen V-ers or Generation V to the mix.

[Bob Green]

Cases in the US are going to explode as we test more.

I’ve been following Virginia testing results at the VDH website and the percentage of positive results has fallen everyday this week.

10% > 6.5% > 6.2% > 4.8%

Positive results might explode tomorrow or next week but this week as more testing has taken place the percentage of positives has dropped.

I believe early positive results were high due to strict testing criteria.

[duke79]

I’ve been following Virginia testing results at the VDH website and the percentage of positive results has fallen everyday this week.

10% > 6.5% > 6.2% > 4.8%

Positive results might explode tomorrow or next week but this week as more testing has taken place the percentage of positives has dropped.

I believe early positive results were high due to strict testing criteria.

I think that, statistically-speaking, the number of positive results should continue to fall, as more and more people are tested. I read somewhere that in South Korea, where they tested over 200,000 people who showed some symptoms of the Corona virus, that 96% tested negative.

[ChemGod]

Here is an extensive report on the ship.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...773v2.full.pdf

I have no idea what you are waiting for? If you mean support for my totally obvious statement that number of hospitalizations isn't the only objective metric we have for Italy, we also have number of positive tests.

There were 531 positives, likely from a single initial patient in a couple of weeks and you don’t think there was exponential spread?

In terms of positive test results, they are not a reliable indication of actual disease burden, and won’t be until much, much more testing is done. Comments on the thread that I saw were not pointed at Italy. IMO S Korea is the likely only country that has done enough to come close.

[swood1000]

Rate of increase:

Covid_doubling.jpg

[J4Kop99]

I can't go into too much detail here so please feel free to delete if you deem necessary:

I have a close friend that works in NJ at one of the main medical lab testing companies. He said, as of now, they do not have close to the amount of manpower needed to process the demand of testing. They are still processing tests from Monday and ran out of kits. Half of customer service is on calls and the other half is putting together more kits. This volume is only from Northeast cases. "It's bad. The fact is all these testing labs are scrambling to distribute and collect these testing kits. Needed to be rolling this out a month ago"

Same person has a close family member thats works at Mt Sinai in NYC. Said all 5 hospitals are projected to reach capacity within the next month. They do not think this will peak until May.

[freshmanjs]

But didn't the ship effectively confine everyone once the diagnosis was confirmed? I thought they confined passengers to their quarters during the remainder of the voyage. Doesn't that pretty much amount to effective social distancing? Or am I not recalling correctly what happened?

Sailing began January 20. There was no quarantining in cabins until Feb 6. I'm sure that after Feb 6, the confinement to rooms had some effect.

[freshmanjs]

In terms of positive test results, they are not a reliable indication of actual disease burden, and won’t be until much, much more testing is done. Comments on the thread that I saw were not pointed at Italy. IMO S Korea is the likely only country that has done enough to come close.

All of my posts have been about the number of new infections in Italy or about the Diamond Princess.

Hospitalizations are also not a reliable indication of actual disease burden. They lag new cases and only give you insight into the most severe cases.

In any case, saying that hospitalizations are the ONLY objective metric we have is wrong.

You could argue they are the most useful metric we have, but it depends for what purpose. I am trying to figure out if the rate of new infections is shrinking or growing in Italy (it has been shrinking, but today it popped up a bit). For that, the number of hospitalizations is not useful at all. You are free to try to figure out whatever you like using whatever data you like, of course.

[bundabergdevil]

The public and office facilities that I work with have begun to roll out guidance that we'll be remote through the end of April. This is based on Governor Wolf (PA) guidance to limit contact to <10 people for 8 weeks.

We went from internal discussions, to closed/remote for 2 weeks, to closed/remote for 6 weeks in a matter of days.