PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Bostondevil]

So, question to the group: in the event that there was some sort of World War Z or TWD scenario, would you want to die in the first wave or fight to survive for a long time in terrifying circumstances? Some trusted advisers of mine have started to bring me over to the “die immediately” caucus versus the be like Rick Grimes club.

I would fight to stay alive as long as my loved ones wanted to fight with me. If they are all gone. I'm joining them.

[Acymetric]

So, question to the group: in the event that there was some sort of World War Z or TWD scenario, would you want to die in the first wave or fight to survive for a long time in terrifying circumstances? Some trusted advisers of mine have started to bring me over to the “die immediately” caucus versus the be like Rick Grimes club.

Fight to survive. Those guys are making it harder than it has to be because they're trying to find civilization/a cure/whatnot. Screw that. Wander through the woods/forests, live off the land. Don't worry about finding other people, avoid them if you accidentally do find them.

Heck, I'm half tempted to just go ahead and get a head start.

[LasVegas]

Fight to survive. Those guys are making it harder than it has to be because they're trying to find civilization/a cure/whatnot. Screw that. Wander through the woods/forests, live off the land. Don't worry about finding other people, avoid them if you accidentally do find them.

Heck, I'm half tempted to just go ahead and get a head start.

Or just find a small island and kill all the infected people, if any, on said island. As you as you never leave, I assume you could live there your entire life worry free.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It's coming right for us!!!!
Might be a case at Duke.

The state says the person recently traveled to China and passed through Wuhan City, where the outbreak originated.

The person arrived at RDU on Thursday and had mild respiratory symptoms. They are in good condition and in isolation at Duke University Hospital.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/Po...567271131.html

[bundabergdevil]

It's coming right for us!!!!
Might be a case at Duke.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/Po...567271131.html

This escalated quickly.

[devildeac]

It's coming right for us!!!!
Might be a case at Duke.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/Po...567271131.html

And one of the Infectious Disease specialists I chatted with today at the hospital couldn't stop laughing at me when I asked about building a bomb shelter with an operating room like air filtration system and a couple years of rations...

[OldPhiKap]

And one of the Infectious Disease specialists I chatted with today at the hospital couldn't stop laughing at me when I asked about building a bomb shelter with an operating room like air filtration system and a couple years of rations...

She or he probably knows what your year’s worth of ymm, beer rations might be and realized that the power requirements would crash the grid.

[devildeac]

She or he probably knows what your year’s worth of ymm, beer rations might be and realized that the power requirements would crash the grid.

Probably correct there-thinking several 25 cubic feet fridges needed for those supplies.

[bedeviled]

Yes, but those outbreaks took place before the deep funding cuts to the branch of the CDC that deals with such things

My understanding of the appropriated funding is different. Below are data from the CDC section of a US Global Health Security Funding table from a Kaiser Family Foundation global health policy article.

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020 Requested
CDC Global Health Protection (in millions)	$47.5	$61.9	$51.2	$55.6	$54.3	$62.6	$652.1	$55.2	$58.2	$108.2	$108.2	$149.8

While $149.8 is listed in this chart as a request for FY2020, Congressional appropriations for CDC Global Health Protection ended up at $183.2 ($123.4 of which was designated specifically for CDC "Global Health Security").

With regard to funding "cuts," I think you are probably referring to the FY2019 ending of the one-time emergency fund Congress approved in 2015 in response to the Ebola epidemic (reflected in chart above). At the end of that fund, left-over money was transferred into a new Infectious Diseases Rapid Response Reserve Fund which is not reflected in the above chart.

So, while it is true that the CDC has less Global Health Protection funding that it did when the Ebola emergency funds were available, funding has not been cut from the time of SARS and MERS.

[Troublemaker]

So, the official number of ~1300 cases is very likely to be wrong. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this thread following Chinese social media (if just through an English translator), and they paint an awful picture of the situation in China, with packed hospitals, doctors contracting the disease, dead bodies in the hallways of hospitals with no personnel available to remove them, no medical supplies being sent, Chinese doctors estimating the number of infected to be >100,000, etc.

I would love to share this stuff with you guys but need a ruling from the moderators on rumor-mongering. Personally, I would say for this type of thread, rumors are a good thing that add value. Put it out there and let everyone who reads it apply their own level of skepticism towards it. What I'm picturing in my head is that we crowd-source among us the credibility of rumors and unofficial sources. That means that even though I would participate in "rumor mongering" (posting unofficial sources [but when the official sources are so unreliable...]), I might turn around and whack any rumor from another poster that I deem to not be credible.

[bundabergdevil]

So, the official number of ~1300 cases is very likely to be wrong. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this thread following Chinese social media (if just through an English translator), and they paint an awful picture of the situation in China, with packed hospitals, doctors contracting the disease, dead bodies in the hallways of hospitals with no personnel available to remove them, no medical supplies being sent, Chinese doctors estimating the number of infected to be >100,000, etc.

I would love to share this stuff with you guys but need a ruling from the moderators on rumor-mongering. Personally, I would say for this type of thread, rumors are a good thing that add value. Put it out there and let everyone who reads it apply their own level of skepticism towards it. What I'm picturing in my head is that we crowd-source among us the credibility of rumors and unofficial sources. That means that even though I would participate in "rumor mongering" (posting unofficial sources [but when the official sources are so unreliable...]), I might turn around and whack any rumor from another poster that I deem to not be credible.

I had assumed the official reports coming out of China were low-balled because, well, China. I would assume any social media reports are overblown because, well, social media. So, maybe somewhere in between? Wouldn't any Chinese citizens contradicting the official estimates run the risk of crossing Chinese authorities who have some of the most sophisticated citizen internet monitoring in the world?

All very interesting.

[Bob Green]

So, while it is true that the CDC has less Global Health Protection funding that it did when the Ebola emergency funds were available, funding has not been cut from the time of SARS and MERS.

Thanks for providing funding numbers to the discussion.

[bundabergdevil]

My understanding of the appropriated funding is different. Below are data from the CDC section of a US Global Health Security Funding table from a Kaiser Family Foundation global health policy article.

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020 Requested
CDC Global Health Protection (in millions)	$47.5	$61.9	$51.2	$55.6	$54.3	$62.6	$652.1	$55.2	$58.2	$108.2	$108.2	$149.8

While $149.8 is listed in this chart as a request for FY2020, Congressional appropriations for CDC Global Health Protection ended up at $183.2 ($123.4 of which was designated specifically for CDC "Global Health Security").

With regard to funding "cuts," I think you are probably referring to the FY2019 ending of the one-time emergency fund Congress approved in 2015 in response to the Ebola epidemic (reflected in chart above). At the end of that fund, left-over money was transferred into a new Infectious Diseases Rapid Response Reserve Fund which is not reflected in the above chart.

So, while it is true that the CDC has less Global Health Protection funding that it did when the Ebola emergency funds were available, funding has not been cut from the time of SARS and MERS.

I guess if folks are interested in CDC budget line items versus the "die immediately or die slowly during the zombie apocalypse" question, then they'd do best to skim through the CDC operating budgets. It should be noted that, even though Presidents' names get tacked on to final budgets, they're not responsible for them. Trump's budget requests to Congress have for each year of his administration proposed deep cuts to most agencies (excluding defense and a few others). This year, I believe, the administration proposed a 10% cut to the CDC's budget. In many cases, Congress has essentially ignored Trump's proposals and funded various agencies consistent with recent history --- they have enacted cuts elsewhere but not to the level requested by the administration.

This angle gonna get us all in trouble...

[rsvman]

Early reports out of China definitely underestimated the numbers.

I read an article at CNN today that was written by a reporter who covered SARS 17 years ago. She guesses that this one will turn out include higher numbers of infections than SARS. It's an interesting read.

Still not ready for the bomb shelter, but too early to say where this thing is going.

[fuse]

WRAL reporting a potential case identified at RDU, patient in isolation at Duke Med.

[devildeac]

It's coming right for us!!!!
Might be a case at Duke.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/Po...567271131.html

And one of the Infectious Disease specialists I chatted with today at the hospital couldn't stop laughing at me when I asked about building a bomb shelter with an operating room like air filtration system and a couple years of rations...

She or he probably knows what your year’s worth of ymm, beer rations might be and realized that the power requirements would crash the grid.

WRAL reporting a potential case identified at RDU, patient in isolation at Duke Med.

That settles it. I'm headed to Total Wine and/or Bottle Revolution later today and/or tomorrow, credit limit be damned...

[bundabergdevil]

US arranging to evacuate diplomats via charter flights from Wuhan province.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/25/polit...ina/index.html

[Kdogg]

And one of the Infectious Disease specialists I chatted with today at the hospital couldn't stop laughing at me when I asked about building a bomb shelter with an operating room like air filtration system and a couple years of rations...

Costco sells that stuff in bulk...and I’m not kidding.

[freshmanjs]

Useful dashboard from JHU

[bundabergdevil]

Useful dashboard from JHU

That already looks scary but they’re probably going to need some bigger bubbles before this is all over.