PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Bluedog]

Might be more logical to say that we conclude there is a small chance it got out of a lab rather than saying we conclude it got out of a lab but our confidence is low

I don't think that's what they're saying though. DOE isn't saying "10% chance that it got out of a lab." They're saying "we think if we had to choose the origin, we'd land on "it got out of a lab" but we don't feel very good about that conclusion as we lack enough evidence. But we ALSO lack evidence on natural transmission origin. For the balance of evidence/science that we DO have, "got out of a lab" seems a bit more plausible. But lack of evidence overall doesn't allow us to reach a firm conclusion."

At least, I THINK that's what they're saying.

[rsvman]

My two cents about home testing. From the get-go it was not as sensitive as the PCR, but not very prone to false positives. It gets more sensitive over time, at least to a certain extent; in other words, if you started feeling symptoms when you woke up at 8 a.m. and you take the test at 8:30, sensitivity is bad. If symptoms continue and you take the test at 8 p.m. instead, it gets much better. The next day it is better still.

I have not heard evidence that the variants are causing the home tests to be false negative, and I am still seeing people around here have positive home tests.

[budwom]

I don't think that's what they're saying though. DOE isn't saying "10% chance that it got out of a lab." They're saying "we think if we had to choose the origin, we'd land on "it got out of a lab" but we don't feel very good about that conclusion as we lack enough evidence. But we ALSO lack evidence on natural transmission origin. For the balance of evidence/science that we DO have, "got out of a lab" seems a bit more plausible. But lack of evidence overall doesn't allow us to reach a firm conclusion."

At least, I THINK that's what they're saying.

I can see that point of view. But if that’s really what they’re saying then (IMO) they really should have said nothing

[Skydog]

My two cents about home testing. From the get-go it was not as sensitive as the PCR, but not very prone to false positives. It gets more sensitive over time, at least to a certain extent; in other words, if you started feeling symptoms when you woke up at 8 a.m. and you take the test at 8:30, sensitivity is bad. If symptoms continue and you take the test at 8 p.m. instead, it gets much better. The next day it is better still.

I have not heard evidence that the variants are causing the home tests to be false negative, and I am still seeing people around here have positive home tests.

I'm counting on this being the case (home tests still accurate). I've been sick for 2 1/2 weeks now and because I keep getting negative home covid test results I have decided I have a cold and am going out and living life normally. My symptoms are coughing and runny nose, some wheezing, low energy. Urgent care took a chest x-ray, said it was normal and sent me home with anti-cough pills. Hopefully I'm not spreading Covid everywhere. I don't think I am though.

[sciencegeek]

I don't think that's what they're saying though. DOE isn't saying "10% chance that it got out of a lab." They're saying "we think if we had to choose the origin, we'd land on "it got out of a lab" but we don't feel very good about that conclusion as we lack enough evidence. But we ALSO lack evidence on natural transmission origin. For the balance of evidence/science that we DO have, "got out of a lab" seems a bit more plausible. But lack of evidence overall doesn't allow us to reach a firm conclusion."

At least, I THINK that's what they're saying.

FBI Director Christopher Wray said Tuesday that the Covid pandemic was probably the result of a laboratory leak in China. I wonder if the US will fund the lab.

[sagegrouse]

I can see that point of view. But if that’s really what they’re saying then (IMO) they really should have said nothing

Hasn't there been pressure from Capitol Hill to get assessments from the Intell Community?

As we used to say in the study world, "If you want it bad, you get it bad." (I.e., Shouldn't have been published.)

[MChambers]

Hasn't there been pressure from Capitol Hill to get assessments from the Intell Community?

As we used to say in the study world, "If you want it bad, you get it bad." (I.e., Shouldn't have been published.)

It was just a leak. With the majority party in the House planning on holding hearings, the timing of the leak is interesting, to say the least.

[Gooch]

Question for the esteemed and researched members of this board - is there any evidence that the "home test" kits are failing at detecting the newer variants of COVID? I was sick as a dog with every COVID symptom you can imagine in late December and tested negative four times. A coworker had a similar instance last week - ticks all the boxes, negative tests from home kits.

Are we just tempted to assume we have COVID when we have those symptoms at this point? Or is there a likelihood that COVID has mutated to a degree that defies the testing?

Excuse my ignorance please.

My kid was sick for a week with fatigue, upper respiratory congestion, and sore throat for a full week. Tested negative daily with home tests the entire time. Also at the end cleared up overnight unlike any cold I’m familiar with. Sure seemed like COVID to my wife and me.

[Bluedog]

It was just a leak. With the majority party in the House planning on holding hearings, the timing of the leak is interesting, to say the least.

So you're saying the DOE's lab leak theory was leaked?

[MChambers]

So you're saying the DOE's lab leak theory was leaked?

Why is it I feel like I need to go to the bathroom? :-)

[rsvman]

My kid was sick for a week with fatigue, upper respiratory congestion, and sore throat for a full week. Tested negative daily with home tests the entire time. Also at the end cleared up overnight unlike any cold I’m familiar with. Sure seemed like COVID to my wife and me.

Unless there was loss of the sense of taste and smell, which has been less common with the Omicron variants, there doesn't exist a reliable way of clinically differentiating Covid from other respiratory viral infections.

In other words, there is no such thing as 'seemed like Covid to us.'

To put it into perspective, before there was such a thing as Covid we doctors used to think we could tell influenza from other respiratory viral infections. We even used a diagnostic term 'influenza-like illness (ILI).' And to be fair, it was sometimes very obvious when the epidemic would hit the community, if for no other reason than that the number of children coming into the clinic sick would increase. And, like Covid's loss of taste and smell, there are certain features, such as severe myositis, that happen with flu but not with other respiratory viruses.

Anyway, if you asked physicians if they thought they could reliably differentiate flu from other respiratory viral infections, the majority would confidently say yes. However, when this was studied scientifically, using multiplex PCRs as the diagnostic standard, it turned out that they couldn't, and that ILI was likely not a reliable diagnostic rubric.

So don't feel bad that you can't tell whether your child had Covid; nobody else can, either.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Unless there was loss of the sense of taste and smell, which has been less common with the Omicron variants, there doesn't exist a reliable way of clinically differentiating Covid from other respiratory viral infections.

In other words, there is no such thing as 'seemed like Covid to us.'
.

I have had a few patients supersick this winter, some hospitalized for hypoxia. We had a pertussis outbreak a few years ago in my community so I do random PCR testing on a few of my worst patients when their rapid COVID and flu test are negative. I have had results for Enterovirus (likely D68) and one of the original non-COVID coronaviruses. Thankfully no pertussis, but the other viruses are out there, and occasionally can cause weeks of coughing.

[Skydog]

... Thankfully no pertussis, but the other viruses are out there, and occasionally can cause weeks of coughing.

Definitely true. At week 3 my undefined virus caused coughing is finally reduced, mainly at night now.

[aimo]

Today marks three years since the first COVID case in NC. Someone brought it in from that nursing home in Washington. I remember I had a nasty cold a few days later at the Duke/holes game, but I knew it wasn't COVID b/c the symptoms did not match up at all. I have not had a cold since (knock wood) and am still masking in public.

[MChambers]

Good post by Dr. Eric Topol on the risks of cardiac disease after a Covid infection: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/hea...m_medium=email

"It’s an inconvenient truth that Covid is associated with an excess of heart attacks and strokes beyond the first month of infection. That can no longer be ignored or refuted. The positive outlook is that these studies zoomed in on patients infected in the pre-vaccine era, and subsequently we’ve seen that vaccinations were linked with halving the adverse outcomes. But even with vaccination the rate isn’t zero."

[Bostondevil]

What cheeses me off the most about any further discussion of where the covid virus originated is the looking back nature of it all. It no longer really matters where it came from, what is important is to do a better effin' job of preparing for the next one.

The next one is coming and it might not take anywhere near as long to get here as the last one. We had 100 years between the Spanish flu and covid. I sincerely doubt we'll get 100 years before the next one. Assume that both potential origin paths are true and act accordingly. Have the discussion about security of labs that research potentially dangerous virus, have the discussion about wet market practices that increase the risk of zoonotic transmission of potentially dangerous viruses, increase resources devoted to global health security. Do better for the future.

[bundabergdevil]

What cheeses me off the most about any further discussion of where the covid virus originated is the looking back nature of it all. It no longer really matters where it came from, what is important is to do a better effin' job of preparing for the next one.

The next one is coming and it might not take anywhere near as long to get here as the last one. We had 100 years between the Spanish flu and covid. I sincerely doubt we'll get 100 years before the next one. Assume that both potential origin paths are true and act accordingly. Have the discussion about security of labs that research potentially dangerous virus, have the discussion about wet market practices that increase the risk of zoonotic transmission of potentially dangerous viruses, increase resources devoted to global health security. Do better for the future.

I can take a few educated guesses as to why you think the next one will be here sooner than the 100 year gap highlighted above but interested in hearing your POV.

[MChambers]

What cheeses me off the most about any further discussion of where the covid virus originated is the looking back nature of it all. It no longer really matters where it came from, what is important is to do a better effin' job of preparing for the next one.

The next one is coming and it might not take anywhere near as long to get here as the last one. We had 100 years between the Spanish flu and covid. I sincerely doubt we'll get 100 years before the next one. Assume that both potential origin paths are true and act accordingly. Have the discussion about security of labs that research potentially dangerous virus, have the discussion about wet market practices that increase the risk of zoonotic transmission of potentially dangerous viruses, increase resources devoted to global health security. Do better for the future.

Exactly. We should be preparing for the next by doing the things you suggest.

[Bostondevil]

I can take a few educated guesses as to why you think the next one will be here sooner than the 100 year gap highlighted above but interested in hearing your POV.

Mostly it's food chain issues and loss of habitat for wild animals.

Congress's failure to act is also problematic but, to be fair, they were bad before the covid pandemic. We were not prepared for covid and from a public policy viewpoint, we've only gotten worse. I've been slamming my head against the lack of preparedness wall for decades.

[Bostondevil]

Exactly. We should be preparing for the next by doing the things you suggest.

That's not all we should do, but I didn't feel like making a full list. I'm sick. My (multiple) covid tests have come back negative so it's probably just a bad cold, but I don't feel well and I'm cranky.