PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[freshmanjs]

Well, it's the only entity that we can hold accountable. That's my only point.

If we get to a point where we feel masks are unnecessary, we can tell the government that we think it's time to make these changes.

If your daughter's first college choice wants to keep their campus in a bubble, that's their choice. I imagine parents of current students are vastly in favor of this.

If your point is simply pondering that it will be lovey when things are normal again, sure, of course, anyone would agree with that

If your point is frustration that it is taking a long time to get back to normal - I agree again!

If you are frustrated with the entities that are not yet back to normal - that's where I disagree.

My point is that we can’t have a reasonable conversation about whether current limitations make sense or should evolve if some participants in the conversation are denying that there are any limitations.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My point is that we can’t have a reasonable conversation about whether current limitations make sense or should evolve if some participants in the conversation are denying that there are any limitations.

Well, the reality is limitations very wildly depending on where you are. As noted in this thread, South Carolina is very much business as usual. This crisis, for whatever reason, was delegated to the states rather than handled at the federal level.

Everyone's experience is different. You are clearly experiencing more limitations than many. I personally am not at all. I'm not working- in person or remotely. I'm not traveling - personal choice given risk assessment. I socially distance at the grocery and wear a mask. I only go to breweries with outdoor seating - again a personal choice, not a rule or mandate. I don't have a kid in school studying remotely or in person.

I agree that we need to be more aware of the varied experiences we are all having, but that cuts both ways. None of us are having the definitive COVID experience.

[freshmanjs]

Well, the reality is limitations very wildly depending on where you are. As noted in this thread, South Carolina is very much business as usual. This crisis, for whatever reason, was delegated to the states rather than handled at the federal level.

Everyone's experience is different. You are clearly experiencing more limitations than many. I personally am not at all. I'm not working- in person or remotely. I'm not traveling - personal choice given risk assessment. I socially distance at the grocery and wear a mask. I only go to breweries with outdoor seating - again a personal choice, not a rule or mandate. I don't have a kid in school studying remotely or in person.

I agree that we need to be more aware of the varied experiences we are all having, but that cuts both ways. None of us are having the definitive COVID experience.

Agree with all of that. In our family, It’s been (by far) most acutely felt by our 2 college students over the last 6 months. One is in NC and one in MA. The limitations have been similar, but not exactly the same. College is also a limited once in a lifetime experience, so it’s not like they can make up for it later. First world problems, I realize.

[Channing]

I believe it's now well established that the transmissibility of COVID is reduced to some extent if one of two people are wearing a mask, but is reduced significantly more if both are wearing a mask. Moreover, the CDC "recommends universal indoor masking by students, staff members, faculty, and visitors in kindergarten through grade 12 (K–12) schools, regardless of vaccination status, to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19." Therefore, assuming that we're dealing with children in public schools, if you can exercise your prerogative to send your child to school without a mask, then other parents who believe, consistent with the CDC recommendation, that children should wear masks to protect themselves and their classmates, are forced to choose between exposing their child to a higher risk by sending them to school, where they will be interacting with your unmasked child, or keeping their child at home.

You suggest that the proper resolution is to let your unmasked child enjoy the benefits of attending school while the more cautious parent must bear the burdens associated with requiring their child to be schooled remotely, which include arranging for a parent or other supervisory adult to remain present in the home throughout the day and accepting the known educational and social deficiencies of remote learning -- not to mention being deprived of equal access to the school and related resources for which that parent is also paying taxes. Why should the parents who want to comply with the masking recommendations of public health authorities be forced to bear the heavier burden? Why shouldn't those who want to disregard the CDC recommendation and exercise their prerogative to let their children learn without a mask be the ones who are obligated to have their children taught remotely or enroll them in a private school that does not require masking? Is there a "fair" way to resolve these differing positions short of creating parallel public school systems -- one for the masked and another for the unmasked? The rebirth of "separate but equal" in a new context?

I’m not sure about the kids by you, but I have a pre schooler and elementary school aged child. They’ve been wearing masks for two years. Masks are not worn correctly and spend as much time below the nose as above. Kids take off masks to eat lunch. The masks are I’ll fitting, usually cloth based, and otherwise in no way compatible with CDC guidance. It is fantasy to pretend that this is providing any level of benefit to families that are legitimately concerned about Covid spread.

To my knowledge, though I’m sure someone will show me where I am wrong, there is no meaningful increase in places where there is no school masking as opposed to where there is.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Well, the reality is limitations very wildly depending on where you are. As noted in this thread, South Carolina is very much business as usual. This crisis, for whatever reason, was delegated to the states rather than handled at the federal level.

Everyone's experience is different. You are clearly experiencing more limitations than many. I personally am not at all. I'm not working- in person or remotely. I'm not traveling - personal choice given risk assessment. I socially distance at the grocery and wear a mask. I only go to breweries with outdoor seating - again a personal choice, not a rule or mandate. I don't have a kid in school studying remotely or in person.

I agree that we need to be more aware of the varied experiences we are all having, but that cuts both ways. None of us are having the definitive COVID experience.

I am working in SC this week and I would say there are no limitations at all. I am almost always the only person wearing a mask in any establishment. I can't see a single curtailing of life based on the pandemic here.

The argument over "limitations" here seems very much perception based. Almost no government regulations exist here and people can travel, attend sporting events and eat in restaurants. There are limitations from individual businesses (although I would argue SO much work should and could have been virtual before) and institutions such as colleges (and I agree it is incongruous to open sporting events and close classes). But Bostondevil has been to Nashville to see skating in the last 2 weeks or so. I have been to and from Canada about 7 times in 4 months. For some of us, life seems fairly restriction free. For Freshmanjs it seems his/her life is full of restrictions. We all get your point about these things. I guess everyone else kind of feels like they are almost restriction free. It's ok if people disagree.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We all get your point about these things. I guess everyone else kind of feels like they are almost restriction free. It's ok if people disagree.

I guess that's my whole point. There's not a right answer on these topics that are so contextual.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I’m not sure about the kids by you, but I have a pre schooler and elementary school aged child. They’ve been wearing masks for two years. Masks are not worn correctly and spend as much time below the nose as above. Kids take off masks to eat lunch. The masks are I’ll fitting, usually cloth based, and otherwise in no way compatible with CDC guidance. It is fantasy to pretend that this is providing any level of benefit to families that are legitimately concerned about Covid spread.

To my knowledge, though I’m sure someone will show me where I am wrong, there is no meaningful increase in places where there is no school masking as opposed to where there is.

I have kids in elementary school and middle school. Kids wear masks in school without an questions and they are all on properly. The principal at my son’s middle school sent a very clear email when he sensed people were being less careful.

My kids don’t mind it at all. Do I think learning would be better without masks? Definitely. But if everyone would just get with the program and wear their masks when in close proximity to others and get their vaccines instead of screaming about their liberties, this whole thing could be over a lot quicker.

So different strokes for different folks. I’m sorry you live in a place where people don’t follow rules and care about the people around them.

[Bostondevil]

OK, seems like I need to clarify what I meant. I was responding to the term paralyzed. American life is not in a state of paralysis right now. It's just not. By limitations, I meant much broader types of activities. Travel can happen, gatherings can happen, the Super Bowl can happen, anyone with a ticket and either a vaccine card or a negative test can go to the Super Bowl, college kids are on campus, schools are open, businesses are open. Yes, I think some schools paused or came back from winter break late because of omicron, but we aren't facing entire semesters of remote learning.

Having to show a negative test or a vaccine card to get into the Super Bowl is not a limitation, it's taking your shoes off at airport security, just something you have to do now. It's probably not a permanent change, but, it might be.

So, is not being able to eat in a dining hall on a college campus a limitation or an example of the new normal? Is not being able to take an official, in person, college tour a limitation or an example of the new normal? (Visiting college campuses on one's own is possible even if official visits are not.) Are businesses choosing to remain remote a limitation or an example of the new normal? I can't say. I suspect dining halls will open back up, soon even. I suspect, for the foreseeable future, official college visits will be weighted less in the college admissions process, replaced by documented online interest. I suspect some businesses will encourage employees to remain remote in order to save on rent. The world has changed. We aren't going back to 2019. Some things will be permanently changed. Which changes are the lasting ones that will create our new normal remains to be seen.

[camion]

Where i live its a free for all. With the occasional threat to go virtual.
No masks required except a few doctors offices.
Probably 40% wear masks .which is up since new strain .
A bill has been proposed to make it illeagal to ask about vaccination status.
Id say none cares around charleston sc area.
We only have 5 million in this state.shouldnt take to long to go through every one.thats the only positive i can see.

I live at the other of the state. It's similar. And one should note that the state is not providing timely data on Covid cases because the testing/reporting system is overwhelmed.

As they said in MIB: "With the bug in town, we'll watch the morgues."

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Is it illegal to cross the streams, like in Ghostbusters? SO, I have a positive COVID test this morning. Part of the clue was a higher HR than normal for a Endurance based cycling workout last night. I was watching the US-Salvador World Cup qualifier, so I thought that might be the reason, but goal HR was under 120 and I was in the high 130's. I have not been riding outside because our hospital is still full, and there are no ICU beds in case I would be hit by a car. Mild achiness after the workout which is not typical, so I swabbed this morning, and Bingo.

So I do Pediatrics, and have just seen too many positive patients over the last week. I use an N95 with a surgical mask covering it, and gloves for every patient encounter, and vaxed/boosted, but I had a feeling this would be the week. Too many stories of extremely fast spread within the patients families, which has to imply high viral load and super contagious variants. We also finally started seeing sick patients within the office, having previously seen patients outside in their cars in the parking lot in order to protect staff. So I did 'everything right' but it still hit

I have appreciated the viewpoints of all the contributors to the thread. I would also like to see more efforts to control this spread. Worldometers has death rates per million as a measure of success against COVID. SC has lost 2.9k per million, but NC only 1.9 k per million, lower than average states, possibly due to stricter guidelines. But of course that is an incomplete measure. For instance, one father of a patient told me he has two male friends in their 30's that had COVID, and are now in mental facilities with COVID psychosis. One was arrested prior to being institutionalized. I have no way of verifying this, but there are academic reports of similar side effects.

My daughter is tenting now, and two in her group are positive, but that matches her reports of non-tenters also having positive tests. EG, her roomate came back with a positive test upon return for this semester. She is as isolated in her tent as she would be in any other setting. It has been hard for this age group, missing so many things- but resilience has to be learned not taught. My great-grandmother worked in Philadelphia during the Flu in 1918, and I wonder what it was like for that generation.

Best to all.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

For instance, one father of a patient told me he has two male friends in their 30's that had COVID, and are now in mental facilities with COVID psychosis. One was arrested prior to being institutionalized. I have no way of verifying this, but there are academic reports of similar side effects.

Best to you and your family. I wish you a speedy and painless recovery.

But... "COVID psychosis?"

Please tell me this is an anecdotal abberation. I don't need this in my universe.

[OldPhiKap]

Is it illegal to cross the streams, like in Ghostbusters? SO, I have a positive COVID test this morning. Part of the clue was a higher HR than normal for a Endurance based cycling workout last night. I was watching the US-Salvador World Cup qualifier, so I thought that might be the reason, but goal HR was under 120 and I was in the high 130's. I have not been riding outside because our hospital is still full, and there are no ICU beds in case I would be hit by a car. Mild achiness after the workout which is not typical, so I swabbed this morning, and Bingo.

So I do Pediatrics, and have just seen too many positive patients over the last week. I use an N95 with a surgical mask covering it, and gloves for every patient encounter, and vaxed/boosted, but I had a feeling this would be the week. Too many stories of extremely fast spread within the patients families, which has to imply high viral load and super contagious variants. We also finally started seeing sick patients within the office, having previously seen patients outside in their cars in the parking lot in order to protect staff. So I did 'everything right' but it still hit

I have appreciated the viewpoints of all the contributors to the thread. I would also like to see more efforts to control this spread. Worldometers has death rates per million as a measure of success against COVID. SC has lost 2.9k per million, but NC only 1.9 k per million, lower than average states, possibly due to stricter guidelines. But of course that is an incomplete measure. For instance, one father of a patient told me he has two male friends in their 30's that had COVID, and are now in mental facilities with COVID psychosis. One was arrested prior to being institutionalized. I have no way of verifying this, but there are academic reports of similar side effects.

My daughter is tenting now, and two in her group are positive, but that matches her reports of non-tenters also having positive tests. EG, her roomate came back with a positive test upon return for this semester. She is as isolated in her tent as she would be in any other setting. It has been hard for this age group, missing so many things- but resilience has to be learned not taught. My great-grandmother worked in Philadelphia during the Flu in 1918, and I wonder what it was like for that generation.

Best to all.

Thank you for that front-line report, and thanks for the work you do.

Does the experience you relate tend to show that the virus at this point is endemic? And if so, do we shift resources from avoidance to treatment? I ask because I live in a state with a high anti-vax population and with political leaders competing to see who can be the least restrictive possible. So it is blasting through the state and I don’t see much hope of avoidance despite any measures I may take beyond getting vaccinated/boosted and hoping for good treatment options if I get a (somewhat rare) severe breakthrough case.

Not saying I’m happy with that — but I think those are the cards we’ve been dealt down here.

[Stray Gator]

I have kids in elementary school and middle school. Kids wear masks in school without an questions and they are all on properly. The principal at my son’s middle school sent a very clear email when he sensed people were being less careful.

My kids don’t mind it at all. Do I think learning would be better without masks? Definitely. But if everyone would just get with the program and wear their masks when in close proximity to others and get their vaccines instead of screaming about their liberties, this whole thing could be over a lot quicker.

So different strokes for different folks. I’m sorry you live in a place where people don’t follow rules and care about the people around them.

I concur 100% with this. I have two grandsons, both of whom attend elementary school in Durham. They were happy to get vaccinated, and seem to accept without any sign of complaint that wearing a mask whenever they're in school or another indoor space with potential exposure to members of the public is necessary to help protect themselves and those around them. I'm sure they sometimes miss being able to go to movie theaters and eat out at a few favorite restaurants, but otherwise they're still enjoying most of their favorite pre-pandemic activities -- playing with neighbors' kids and on their soccer and swimming teams, going with us or their parents to Duke football and basketball games or occasionally out to the mall or the putt-putt golf course, and more recently a few family vacation trips to the beach or the mountains. Life is not back to normal for them; but so far as I can tell, their lives are not so severely restricted that they are suffering material deprivation in terms of their education, or social activities, or emotional growth.

Sorry if this transgresses into the political, but I'm thankful that my grandsons are being raised to understand and appreciate that responsible members of society do not mind making small sacrifices of personal convenience for the collective welfare. I don't know whether schools still give grades for "Citizenship," but IMO there's never been a time when such characteristics merit greater attention and emphasis. You don't need to go full "I am my brother's keeper" to recognize that the stunning transmissibility of this disease, and the unpredictability of its damaging effects, warrant a higher degree of concern for and sensitivity to the potential vulnerability of our neighbors. The notion that we discharge our duty to others simply by saying "let them protect themselves" is, to me, a very myopic and disturbing perspective, which casts serious doubt on the prospect that we'll ever really be able to restore the kind of social contract and resume the "normal" lives that prevailed before the pandemic.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Thank you for that front-line report, and thanks for the work you do.

Does the experience you relate tend to show that the virus at this point is endemic? And if so, do we shift resources from avoidance to treatment? I ask because I live in a state with a high anti-vax population and with political leaders competing to see who can be the least restrictive possible. So it is blasting through the state and I don’t see much hope of avoidance despite any measures I may take beyond getting vaccinated/boosted and hoping for good treatment options if I get a (somewhat rare) severe breakthrough case.

Not saying I’m happy with that — but I think those are the cards we’ve been dealt down here.

I will not claim to be a Public Health expert, or epidemiologist. I followed the link above to see what Your Local Epidemiologist recently reviews, and check tons of other sources. For instance, I have been tracking Iceland and Portugal's versions of their national CDC to see what a different type of national response could look like. And i have been reviewing the Danish decision and Sweeden, England and other countries responses.

The starting comment that I would make, is that "Endemic" does not mean what the general population means with this word. Malaria, and TB are 'endemic" Measles was "endemic", until vaccines were discovered. Polio was endemic. Endemic only means steady state, without unpredictable waves of new outbreaks.

As a country, and eventually as a world, we decided to do something about Measles. Deaths each year were approximately 500 in the US, and the R0 was 10-11. The word struck fear in the medical community, as it does for me today. As our pediatric death total approaches 1000 over two years, I am struck that THIS would be the story if not for the overwhelming number of adult deaths. The story of the discovery of the measles vaccine should be recounted yearly like Super Bowl or World Series wins. Hopefully the work behind the COVID vaccines will be recognized and the discovers will have a parade down Broadway.

But instead, as we have a large quantity of people who still refuse the vaccine or other measures, and with demonstrated waning immunity, we are bound to be at whim of the next mutation. New mutations are roughly happening every two weeks. A mutation toward a more virulent strain is only a chance roll of the dice, as long as vaccines are not utilized by 30-40 percent of the population. And likely the mutation rate is higher were it not for the editing function RNA polymerase that guides replication. In general, surviving strands of infectious agents become more mild over time, but at this point, we can only hope that mutations follow those timelines. I don't know that measles "trended" toward milder versions, and polio certainly didn't, so we had to intervene with vaccine campaigns up to 95% to stop those endemic threats.

Smarter contributors than me can discuss the treatment options that might keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. As they are not available in the age group that I care for, I have not concentrated on those options, though I might be calling my FP in a day or so for me.

As always, please correct anything I have said. I might have linked to Measles date from the CDC in previous posts, and I can again if needed
Here are two quick references to rare post COVID psychosis, though I admit to only having scanned them. I could hope that these go along with older strains, but again, not my ball park. I assumed that the father of my patient was discussing a pre-delta time frame.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8546431/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/h...is-mental.html

[Channing]

I concur 100% with this. I have two grandsons, both of whom attend elementary school in Durham. They were happy to get vaccinated, and seem to accept without any sign of complaint that wearing a mask whenever they're in school or another indoor space with potential exposure to members of the public is necessary to help protect themselves and those around them. I'm sure they sometimes miss being able to go to movie theaters and eat out at a few favorite restaurants, but otherwise they're still enjoying most of their favorite pre-pandemic activities -- playing with neighbors' kids and on their soccer and swimming teams, going with us or their parents to Duke football and basketball games or occasionally out to the mall or the putt-putt golf course, and more recently a few family vacation trips to the beach or the mountains. Life is not back to normal for them; but so far as I can tell, their lives are not so severely restricted that they are suffering material deprivation in terms of their education, or social activities, or emotional growth.

Sorry if this transgresses into the political, but I'm thankful that my grandsons are being raised to understand and appreciate that responsible members of society do not mind making small sacrifices of personal convenience for the collective welfare. I don't know whether schools still give grades for "Citizenship," but IMO there's never been a time when such characteristics merit greater attention and emphasis. You don't need to go full "I am my brother's keeper" to recognize that the stunning transmissibility of this disease, and the unpredictability of its damaging effects, warrant a higher degree of concern for and sensitivity to the potential vulnerability of our neighbors. The notion that we discharge our duty to others simply by saying "let them protect themselves" is, to me, a very myopic and disturbing perspective, which casts serious doubt on the prospect that we'll ever really be able to restore the kind of social contract and resume the "normal" lives that prevailed before the pandemic.

We can agree to disagree. I've seen how kids at both schools my kids attend wear masks. The masks don't fit properly and slide up and down, despite best efforts of the teachers to maintain them. When the CDC says a "well fitting mask" that means something very different than a mask that covers nose and mouth. Our daughter was thrilled to get vaccinated as soon as she was eligible and my wife and I are both vaxxed and boosted. We are two year into this pandemic - my 4 year old doesn't know anything other than Covid protocols. To be clear - both of my kids wear masks and do so without a second thought. However, they are both linguistically delayed and their doctors and therapists have resigned themselves to teh fact that their delay is going to continue to be exarcerbated by the mandatory masking in schools.

Anyone that is being honest with themselves has to realize, at least in my opinion, that this is now endemic rather than pandemic. Is the idea that we continue with these protocols forever? I am too scared to take my family to visit cousins overseas for fear of getting stuck there for two weeks. Why do we have policy that says I can fly domestically without a Covid test but I can't fly back from an international location? Why are my kids allowed to eat lunch at school with their masks down but not sit and learn? Why is the basketball team at the high school allowed to play a game with no masks on but aren't allowed to sit in class with no masks on? Why in DC am I allowed to sit at a table, fully vaxxed, and eat a meal with my mask off but I need to put the mask on walking to the table (when we know that simply walking by someone infected has almost a zero percent chance of infection)? I know the policy all came from a good place - and we have followed it very closely to date. At this point, though, the policy (at least to me) seems to be completely ad hoc and politically driven.

I think I saw this morning that Denmark has joined England in dropping Covid restrictions. Israel has been as highly focused on Covid restrictions as any country and they continue to have very high infection numbers. Everyone's scientists are presumably looking at the same data - I just continue to struggle to see the justification at this point when there is so much available for people to protect themselves. Again, if someone has multiple comorbidities and generally unhealthy, I am all for that person protecting themselves and society helping to protect them by providing N95s at an affordable cost and reserving therapeutics for those at higher risk. This isn't to short change the value of life for disabled and chronically ill persons - it is just to say that, at least in my view, a lot of the protocols have shifted from being medically and scientifically driven to being politically driven.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This isn't to short change the value of life for disabled and chronically ill persons - it is just to say that, at least in my view, a lot of the protocols have shifted from being medically and scientifically driven to being politically driven.

Everything about this crisis has had a political angle from day one. It's wildly frustrating and has hampered our ability to handle the situation in a logical manner. To say that this is a "shift" ignores a lot of the political reasons that we are in this position at all.

[Channing]

Everything about this crisis has had a political angle from day one. It's wildly frustrating and has hampered our ability to handle the situation in a logical manner. To say that this is a "shift" ignores a lot of the political reasons that we are in this position at all.

Agreed, though I do think there was a point from March - late 2020 when we still knew so little that the prudent approach was to over correct to the protective measures. Now, though, both sides, at least as portrayed by the media, have raced to the edges and anyone that tries to have a measured discussion is roundly shouted down. Walensky was vilified the other day for saying it’s good news that 75%+ of O deaths are with 4 comorbidities when that is objectively great news. It is not to diminish the disabled and chronically I’ll, but rather highlights where we can focus our prevention and therapeutic resources.

[aimo]

Why are my kids allowed to eat lunch at school with their masks down but not sit and learn? Why is the basketball team at the high school allowed to play a game with no masks on but aren't allowed to sit in class with no masks on? Why in DC am I allowed to sit at a table, fully vaxxed, and eat a meal with my mask off but I need to put the mask on walking to the table (when we know that simply walking by someone infected has almost a zero percent chance of infection)? I know the policy all came from a good place - and we have followed it very closely to date. At this point, though, the policy (at least to me) seems to be completely ad hoc and politically driven.
.

The situations you mention above are crappy, inconsistent policies. Which means they need improvement, not cessation.

My SiL teaches at a private school. The kids wear masks all day, except during lunch. AND THEY EAT OUTSIDE. Even when it is raining (under tents) and cold. They do not eat inside. This was their solution/alternative to sending everyone home. They have had a few small contained outbreaks, mostly among siblngs.

The hospital where I work mandates surgical masks at a minimum. If a patient comes in wearing a cloth mask, s/he is given a surgical mask to wear instead of or under/over the cloth mask. Double-masking has been encouraged for a while now. They are starting to give N95s to more than just frontline workers. In the beginning, the outbreaks we had among employees were in the breakrooms. No more eating in breakrooms in groups. The employees have been instructed to stagger their lunches and break times to avoid this. Picnic tables have been set up outside to encourage outdoor eating. In the cafeteria, for the patients, the tables have plexiglass separating individuals while they eat so they are not breathing all over each other and tables have been spread out more.

Nothing is going to be perfect, but there are too many half-assed, half-baked "protocols" out there that don't work. Again, improvement and common sense to make it work. It can be done.

[MChambers]

Here's an interesting article in Nature about the many questions surrounding Omicron's emergence. It's mostly focused on the genetics and biology of the variant (or really three sub-variants), but it has this interesting tidbit:

"Researchers agree that Omicron is a recent arrival. It was first detected in South Africa and Botswana in early November 2021 (see ‘Omicron takeover’); retrospective testing has since found earlier samples from individuals in England on 1 and 3 November, and in South Africa, Nigeria and the United States on 2 November. An analysis of the mutation rate in hundreds of sequenced genomes, and of how quickly the virus had spread through populations by December, dates its emergence to not long before that — around the end of September or early October last year."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00215-2

[Bluedog]

Agreed, though I do think there was a point from March - late 2020 when we still knew so little that the prudent approach was to over correct to the protective measures. Now, though, both sides, at least as portrayed by the media, have raced to the edges and anyone that tries to have a measured discussion is roundly shouted down. Walensky was vilified the other day for saying it’s good news that 75%+ of O deaths are with 4 comorbidities when that is objectively great news. It is not to diminish the disabled and chronically I’ll, but rather highlights where we can focus our prevention and therapeutic resources.

As an example, in my community, I would be a proponent of allowing my 2-year old to take her mask off when outside at daycare. But that is considered a ridiculous proposal in my area. I don't think my position is that extreme...Incidentally, she got COVID from daycare while wearing a mask a couple weeks ago...as did many in her class. I live in a community where 5+ is 95% vaccinated. I am also a proponent of not having my (vaccinated) 5-year old wear a mask outside now personally. Is wearing a mask outside the worst thing in the world? No. But I just find it silly, particularly in the summers nowadays when it's hot or when it can get wet, or when everybody is vaccinated/distanced anyways. The toddlers could use a break and enjoy the fresh air. In my area, this position is considered an "anti-masker" essentially. I recall the time when my 3-year got admonished for sticking out his tongue to taste the first snowfall of the season...It's just sad. We can take reasonable precautions, but should also be somewhat logical.

As stated above, we will never be able to reduce ALL risk. Many children die from drowning in pools each year (more than COVID deaths), but we don't say kids can't go into pools. We should make sure they have flotation devices/pools have fences around them, they learn how to swim, etc. Challenge is of course balancing the risk with the precautions, and nobody agrees.

The NY Times just had a recent podcast that revealed the results of a poll that indicated that those who are vaccinated are MUCH more fearful of COVID than those unvaccinated. Similarly, those that are vaccinated are more likely to wear masks and support those mandates. We live in opposite world.