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  1. #1001
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    As the number of events being cancelled starts to climb the question that comes to my mind is how many months does that trend continue? I can see into April, but if the spread of the virus continues to slowly perk, do these measures creep into May and possibly June and July?

  2. #1002
    From what I understand there are really four buckets:

    Kids: Seem to hardly get sick at all
    Mild cases (~80%): Flu like symptoms (we all know how much fun the flu is) up to an including pneumonia
    Severe (~15%): Need medical support/observation to keep O2 saturation up (mostly supplemental oxygen)
    Crtical(~5%): Need breathing support such as ventilators or ECMO.

    Note: I am not a doctor and did not sleep at a holiday inn express last night.

  3. #1003
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    Exactly right here, IMHO. Furthermore, if the campuses are shut down and kids are taking classes "remotely", I'm not sure how the sports teams would practice or travel together to games?
    This is an excellent question. I was wondering it too.

  4. #1004
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by dahntaysdawg View Post
    I read somewhere today that the average age of death in this country was around 80 years old. Long way to go with this unfortunately but so far it doesn’t look like Italy.
    Actually, we look a lot like Italy, just 10 days to two weeks behind the curve. And we're almost certainly going to experience Italy today, but without mass lockdown.

  5. #1005
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Actually, we look a lot like Italy, just 10 days to two weeks behind the curve. And we're almost certainly going to experience Italy today, but without mass lockdown.
    Also, Italy’s population skews older, so more deaths per case even with a similar median age of death.

  6. #1006
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I'll be very pleased, personally, if the worldwide number of confirmed cases flattens out rather than continues exponential growth, as it MAY have just started to do.
    Well, that was a bad guess on my part, based on today's numbers. Just for reference, at mid-day on March 8th, the number of reported U.S. cases was 423. As of this moment, it's 1,135. (Both according to JHU.) That's a pretty short time period for an increase of roughly a factor of 2.5. Some of that may be due to more available testing, of course, but it still doesn't look like any kind of flattening of the curve at this point. Rats!
    Last edited by Phredd3; 03-11-2020 at 04:35 PM. Reason: Can't do math.

  7. #1007
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA

    Notre Dame suspends in person classes

    https://coronavirus.nd.edu/news/fath...-moved-online/

    "Beginning Monday, March 23 and continuing through at least April 13, all in-person classes will be suspended, to be replaced with virtual instruction and other alternative learning options. Furthermore, there will be no classes in any format the week of March 15 to allow faculty time to make the adjustment to on-line instruction.

    In addition, all University-sponsored study abroad programs are being suspended, with our students and U.S.-based faculty and staff being returned home safely and as soon as possible.

    As spring break concludes, students are strongly encouraged to stay or return home rather than return to campus. Beginning at noon on Tuesday, March 17, the undergraduate residence halls will be open only to students who receive approval to remain on campus."
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  8. #1008
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Manhattan
    ...and there it is.

    The NCAA's men's and women's tournaments will be held without fans -- and only essential staff and limited family attendance.

  9. #1009
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Seattle
    Quote Originally Posted by Native View Post
    ...and there it is.
    No Cheats fans. I'll take it.

  10. #1010
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    This has been making the rounds. I suspect it's not valid. Anyone have better info?

    The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can you know if you are infected? By the time you have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% fibrosis.

    Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning: Take a deep breath and hold it for more than 10 seconds. If you do this successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, there is no fibrosis in the lungs; it basically indicates no infection. In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.

    Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and then the lungs. That's very dangerous.

    Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.

    1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold.
    2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
    3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees C. (About 77 degrees F.) It hates the Sun.
    4. If someone sneezes with it, it goes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
    5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface, wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
    6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
    7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
    8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
    9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
    10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!
    -jk

  11. #1011
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Actually, we look a lot like Italy, just 10 days to two weeks behind the curve. And we're almost certainly going to experience Italy today, but without mass lockdown.
    This is just wild speculation. No reason to believe things are going to go like Italy here.

  12. #1012
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Seattle
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    This is just wild speculation. No reason to believe things are going to go like Italy here.
    I personally changed my mind yesterday. Northern Italy has fairly bad pollution so they're seeing a lot of critical cases. It seems like people living in Northern Italy, China, and Iran have been the most effected. SK has much lower number of critical cases comparatively.

    I think whatever panic / measures we have has pretty much flattened our curve. Fingers crossed.

  13. #1013
    Quote Originally Posted by Native View Post
    ...and there it is.
    This is going to be a truly bizarre tournament

  14. #1014
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Well

    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    This is just wild speculation. No reason to believe things are going to go like Italy here.
    I hope you are right, but this article from Vox suggests it is quite possible for the US to have an experience like that in Italy: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/211712...taly-hospitals

  15. #1015
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Someone sent me a really great analogy today... apparently from a Wash Post article:

    You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lilypad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on. Now the teaser. 'If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?' The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you'll barely know the lily pads are there.
    That, my friends, is what exponential growth is all about. Yikes!!
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #1016
    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    https://coronavirus.nd.edu/news/fath...-moved-online/

    "Beginning Monday, March 23 and continuing through at least April 13, all in-person classes will be suspended, to be replaced with virtual instruction and other alternative learning options. Furthermore, there will be no classes in any format the week of March 15 to allow faculty time to make the adjustment to on-line instruction.

    In addition, all University-sponsored study abroad programs are being suspended, with our students and U.S.-based faculty and staff being returned home safely and as soon as possible.

    As spring break concludes, students are strongly encouraged to stay or return home rather than return to campus. Beginning at noon on Tuesday, March 17, the undergraduate residence halls will be open only to students who receive approval to remain on campus."

    uncheats suspended classes for their athletes YEARS ago

  17. #1017
    Quote Originally Posted by proelitedota View Post
    I personally changed my mind yesterday. Northern Italy has fairly bad pollution so they're seeing a lot of critical cases. It seems like people living in Northern Italy, China, and Iran have been the most effected.

    I think whatever panic / measures we have has pretty much flattened our curve.
    I'm glad you are optimistic. Personally, the curve is still unseen.

    Imagine you are sitting at the top row of Wallace Wade (and it's a complete water tight bowl for this thought experiment).

    It is 1pm and a single drop of water is added to the stadium. One minute later it is double to two drops. Two minutes later it doubles again to four drops. The amount of water added doubles every single minute. You don't really even notice anything for the first 20 minutes or so, but then you notice a large puddle. At 1:45 you notice water covering the field and maybe at the first row of seats. No big deal, plenty of time. The stadium is 93% empty. Three minutes later a 1:48 the stadium is half full. One minute later the stadium is overflowing with water and it's game over.

    The problem right now is that we can't see the problem, but the virus is out there growing and growing. Once we notice it, it will be too late.

  18. #1018
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Someone sent me a really great analogy today... apparently from a Wash Post article:



    That, my friends, is what exponential growth is all about. Yikes!!
    I believe that question (phrased slightly more like an actual question) is part of a quiz designed to gauge how well people adjust for bad intuitive thinking.

    Edit: It's part of this

  19. #1019
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    This has been making the rounds. I suspect it's not valid. Anyone have better info?



    -jk
    I would question #5 - Do they mean anti-bacterial soap? If so, why since this is a virus?

    I'm just an accountant but I don't like taking antibiotics unnecessarily.

  20. #1020
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Seattle
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I'm glad you are optimistic. Personally, the curve is still unseen.

    Imagine you are sitting at the top row of Wallace Wade (and it's a complete water tight bowl for this thought experiment).

    It is 1pm and a single drop of water is added to the stadium. One minute later it is double to two drops. Two minutes later it doubles again to four drops. The amount of water added doubles every single minute. You don't really even notice anything for the first 20 minutes or so, but then you notice a large puddle. At 1:45 you notice water covering the field and maybe at the first row of seats. No big deal, plenty of time. The stadium is 93% empty. Three minutes later a 1:48 the stadium is half full. One minute later the stadium is overflowing with water and it's game over.

    The problem right now is that we can't see the problem, but the virus is out there growing and growing. Once we notice it, it will be too late.
    Now that's Peak Prosperity!

    i think our numbers will look more like SK's. Similar pollution levels.

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/

    We can flatten dem curves right now.
    Last edited by proelitedota; 03-11-2020 at 05:32 PM.

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