PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[budwom]

Hope that's true for Mrs. Womble! Meanwhile I'm going all Alexander Haig on this, I'm in charge of everything until we know how she feels.

Right on cue wife is sick from booster. I ‘m in control!

[jv001]

This morning I read on the St. Louis Cardinal website that Adam Wainwright who tested positive for covid a couple of weeks ago (has no symptoms), had Covid back in January. That time he lost his ability to smell (still hasn't regained it), had flu like symptoms and some other side effects. Getting the virus again that quickly is unusual, right?

[cspan37421]

Got my 2nd booster today at outdoor county site. Beautiful day - sunny and breezy, not too warm in the AM. Got 4 more at-home tests as a parting gift. Admins there were all friendly and upbeat. Super positive experience! Also got Pfizer for the first time, after 3 Modernas. Possible slight advantage there. It's been almost 2 hrs; no side effects. That may not be such a great thing, but I can't control it, so won't worry about it.

[MChambers]

This morning I read on the St. Louis Cardinal website that Adam Wainwright who tested positive for covid a couple of weeks ago (has no symptoms), had Covid back in January. That time he lost his ability to smell (still hasn't regained it), had flu like symptoms and some other side effects. Getting the virus again that quickly is unusual, right?

I'm no expert, but from what I've read people do sometimes get reinfected shortly after being infected. I haven't seen any statistics on this (unfortunately, health authorities haven't been all that great on tracking re-infections), but I've certainly seen stories of relatively quick reinfections, especially with children. Part of the problem is that the doggone virus keeps mutating. Some of the new omicron strains apparently evade immunity from infections with the older versions of omicron.

[Bluedog]

I'm no expert, but from what I've read people do sometimes get reinfected shortly after being infected. I haven't seen any statistics on this (unfortunately, health authorities haven't been all that great on tracking re-infections), but I've certainly seen stories of relatively quick reinfections, especially with children. Part of the problem is that the doggone virus keeps mutating. Some of the new omicron strains apparently evade immunity from infections with the older versions of omicron.

I read an article recently saying that getting infected with omicron twice (even different variants) is still "very rare" (for now). Not sure exactly how they know that but that's what it said. (Sorry, can't find article link at the moment). It's possible that somebody infected in January had Delta as it was still circulating to an extent at that point even though the vast majority was omicron. But yeah, to your point, certainly the fact that this thing mutates quite often and in sizable different ways helps it to circumvent prior immunities. Seems like booster shots' protection drop precipitously against omicron after only a few weeks unfortunately (while it remains much more durable against the OG).

[Skydog]

I read an article recently saying that getting infected with omicron twice (even different variants) is still "very rare" (for now). Not sure exactly how they know that but that's what it said. (Sorry, can't find article link at the moment). It's possible that somebody infected in January had Delta as it was still circulating to an extent at that point even though the vast majority was omicron. But yeah, to your point, certainly the fact that this thing mutates quite often and in sizable different ways helps it to circumvent prior immunities. Seems like booster shots' protection drop precipitously against omicron after only a few weeks unfortunately (while it remains much more durable against the OG).

The booster drop in effectiveness after a few weeks only applies to infection susceptibility. The protection against severe disease and death lasts for many months.

[Bluedog]

The booster drop in effectiveness after a few weeks only applies to infection susceptibility. The protection against severe disease and death lasts for many months.

Yes absolutely. That is certainly key. But this fact also perhaps lessens the need for booster #2 to those that have "normal" immune systems because booster #1 still provides strong protection against severe disease and death most data show. Those that are immunocompromised and the like, however, may be a different case. Data still certainly not totally definitive as mentioned above because nobody knows how antibody levels correspond to protection against infection and can't measure t cell defense.

My kids schools are still very much about reducing infections, though, as class is shut down for 10 days for my daughter for a single case in class, while my son's at least has test to stay with one case in the class (and then required masking for two weeks for whole class, he is vaccinated though). So while reducing severe disease and death to me is by far the #1 goal, reducing infections is key to many parents not from a health perspective but from a minimizing disruption to life/learning. The CDC mind bogglingly updated their summary guidance in February but neglected to updates the details underneath so many institutions are still following the pre omicron guidance awaiting detailed protocols from the CDC.

[MChambers]

Eric Topol has a new blog piece titled Covid Capitulation focusing on the new Omicron variants. He's the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, a professor of Molecular Medicine at The Scripps Research Institute, and a senior consultant at the Division of Cardiovascular Diseases at Scripps Clinic in La Jolla, California. He also is editor-in-chief of Medscape and theheart.org.

"Both BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 pose a further challenge to our immune system recognition, with minimal cross-immunity compared with BA.1. That is especially noteworthy since 40-50% of Americans were infected with BA.1 (or BA.1.1) and without added protection from vaccination, they will be vulnerable to BA.2.12.1 infections."

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the...pitulation?s=r

[Bluedog]

Eric Topol has a new blog piece titled Covid Capitulation focusing on the new Omicron variants. He's the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, a professor of Molecular Medicine at The Scripps Research Institute, and a senior consultant at the Division of Cardiovascular Diseases at Scripps Clinic in La Jolla, California. He also is editor-in-chief of Medscape and theheart.org.

"Both BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 pose a further challenge to our immune system recognition, with minimal cross-immunity compared with BA.1. That is especially noteworthy since 40-50% of Americans were infected with BA.1 (or BA.1.1) and without added protection from vaccination, they will be vulnerable to BA.2.12.1 infections."

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the...pitulation?s=r

Thanks for the link. With the bolded section above, isn't it also true that those "just" vaccinated are also extremely vulnerable to "BA.2.12.1 infections"? Seems like the "best" protection is afforded by those fully vaccinated+earlier breakthrough infection. My point isn't to suggest vaccines aren't worthwhile (they clearly are), merely that they also don't provide much durable infection protection against these variants (but do against severe disease and death). I haven't seen conclusive data suggesting if a prior infection vs. Vaccinated individual (without prior infection) fares better when getting infected/likelihood of infection. Probably depends on circumstances. Of course, I'd much rather build immunity with an extremely low risk jab than actually having to get COVID. But I did see that the pediatric vaccine, as an example, only afforded 12% effectiveness against infection with original omicron.

This dang disease is just very evasive and contagious...no matter what we put it up against really. But vaccines clearly are saving lives.

[sagegrouse]

We had earlier posts on Covid rebound (i.e. second occurrence) following treatment with the antiviral Paxlovid -- uncommon but real.

We are waiting for medical advice on 2d booster, as we had Covid last month.

[MChambers]

New article today in the NYT on reinfection. Unfortunately, it's not very conclusive, mostly because we aren't tracking infections and reinfections well.

"An infection with Omicron produces a weaker immune response, which seems to wane quickly, compared with infections with previous variants. Although the newer versions of the variant are closely related, they vary enough from an immune perspective that infection with one doesn’t leave much protection against the others — and certainly not after three or four months.

Still, the good news is that most people who are reinfected with new versions of Omicron will not become seriously ill. At least at the moment, the virus has not hit upon a way to fully sidestep the immune system."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/h...infection.html

[cspan37421]

Got my 2nd booster today at outdoor county site. Beautiful day - sunny and breezy, not too warm in the AM. Got 4 more at-home tests as a parting gift. Admins there were all friendly and upbeat. Super positive experience! Also got Pfizer for the first time, after 3 Modernas. Possible slight advantage there. It's been almost 2 hrs; no side effects. That may not be such a great thing, but I can't control it, so won't worry about it.

Spoke too soon! Was fatigued & napped for 1.5-2 hrs mid-afternoon Sat & Sun. No nap Monday, but still not 100% on energy. Getting there. The only other reaction I had was with my 2nd overall shot, much fatigue, 3-4 hr nap, but it was just one afternoon.

[SoCalDukeFan]

On a trip to Portugal and Spain. Was told needed neg PCR test to enter Portugal. Got the test. At LAX airline said we only needed vaccinations. Got into Portugal without showing the test. Others on the tour had to show test to get into Portugal. Was given QR code to get into Spain. Check was random and had to show nothing. Still need test to get bCk to USA.

[YmoBeThere]

Monkeypox?

[MChambers]

Monkeypox?

It's "mild". Carry on.

[budwom]

The virus is running rampant here in Vermont, seemingly with schools playing a key role (junior comes home sick, family gets sick). Good news is that hospitalizations and deaths are few...but it's pretty remarkable how many people are sick.

Kids by and large are having mild cold symptoms, adults are hit harder, more like a flu of several days duration...

[Skydog]

The virus is running rampant here in Vermont, seemingly with schools playing a key role (junior comes home sick, family gets sick). Good news is that hospitalizations and deaths are few...but it's pretty remarkable how many people are sick.

Kids by and large are having mild cold symptoms, adults are hit harder, more like a flu of several days duration...

Wonder how it is hitting second boosted adults? Asking for a friend.

[MChambers]

Wonder how it is hitting second boosted adults? Asking for a friend.

According to the New York Times article I linked a couple of days ago, omicron is very good at evading community, both from prior infections and from vaccination. The good news is that vaccinations (and prior infections, to a lesser extent) seem to do a good job of reducing the severity of the infection.

[niveklaen]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/reti...2a2c4238e34aca

"Studies estimate that between one-quarter to one-third of COVID-19 patients develop long COVID — regardless of whether these long haulers had severe illness, mild illness or showed no symptoms at all during their initial COVID infection. So with 81.5 million COVID-19 cases and counting reported in the U.S., this suggests that more than 20 million Americans have experienced long COVID of differing degrees of severity."

Long COVID is the most worrisome part of this plague to me. having 20 people permanently disabled for every one that dies is terrifying. I see lots of stuff saying that the vaccines mitigate against death/hospitalization. Do we know yet if they help reduce long COVID too or have we not had enough time to figure that out yet?



(aside from the human cost, these victims will have higher health care cost and be less able to work causing a double hit on the economy)

[MChambers]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/reti...2a2c4238e34aca

"Studies estimate that between one-quarter to one-third of COVID-19 patients develop long COVID — regardless of whether these long haulers had severe illness, mild illness or showed no symptoms at all during their initial COVID infection. So with 81.5 million COVID-19 cases and counting reported in the U.S., this suggests that more than 20 million Americans have experienced long COVID of differing degrees of severity."

Long COVID is the most worrisome part of this plague to me. having 20 people permanently disabled for every one that dies is terrifying. I see lots of stuff saying that the vaccines mitigate against death/hospitalization. Do we know yet if they help reduce long COVID too or have we not had enough time to figure that out yet?



(aside from the human cost, these victims will have higher health care cost and be less able to work causing a double hit on the economy)

This recent NYT article says vaccination probably reduces the incidence and severity of long Covid quite a bit, but goes on to say that studies are all over the map. Like you, I wish there was a clear answer. https://www.nytimes.com/article/long...-vaccines.html