PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Bostondevil]

Also - looking at that graph of total covid deaths, yes, children make up a very small percentage of the covid deaths. But. When it comes to how to think about covid deaths in children, that's not the way to look at it. What percentage of deaths in that age group are due to covid? That number is 718 dead children, people under the age of 17, who would not be dead otherwise. That number is 718 families that have lost a child. I do not take the attitude that it is such a low number, why worry? In 2020, covid was one of the top 10 leading causes of death in children. Quick google search of deaths by age group didn't lead me to 2020 numbers, but in 2019, around 9000 children aged 0-14 died in the US. The age groups don't exactly match up, but 718 out of 9000 is a significant amount.

[niveklaen]

Also - looking at that graph of total covid deaths, yes, children make up a very small percentage of the covid deaths. But. When it comes to how to think about covid deaths in children, that's not the way to look at it. What percentage of deaths in that age group are due to covid? That number is 718 dead children, people under the age of 17, who would not be dead otherwise. That number is 718 families that have lost a child. I do not take the attitude that it is such a low number, why worry? In 2020, covid was one of the top 10 leading causes of death in children. Quick google search of deaths by age group didn't lead me to 2020 numbers, but in 2019, around 9000 children aged 0-14 died in the US. The age groups don't exactly match up, but 718 out of 9000 is a significant amount.

Wow - that 718 out of 9000 deaths really puts COVID in context - for more perspective I found this:

As of April 19, 2019, a total of 186 pediatric deaths had been reported to CDC during the 2017-2018 season. This number exceeds the previously highest number of flu-associated deaths in children reported during a regular flu season (171 during the 2012-2013 season)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm

so Covid has killed more than 3 times as many children in the US as the very worst year of the flu. These people who run around saying COVID is not dangerous for kids/safer than the flu for kids are misinformed

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Wow - that 718 out of 9000 deaths really puts COVID in context - for more perspective I found this:

As of April 19, 2019, a total of 186 pediatric deaths had been reported to CDC during the 2017-2018 season. This number exceeds the previously highest number of flu-associated deaths in children reported during a regular flu season (171 during the 2012-2013 season)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm

so Covid has killed more than 3 times as many children in the US as the very worst year of the flu. These people who run around saying COVID is not dangerous for kids/safer than the flu for kids are misinformed

IN addition, here is a summary of flu deaths in children per year, true cases, not estimates. Amazing to see how COVID measures in schools decreased the numbers of deaths associated to flu, by 99.5% from the previous year. So if we had not closed school, worn masks, made the smallest of sacrifices, how many more COVID cases and deaths in children would we have experienced.
In case you don't click,
2018-2019 144
2019-2020 199 with a sharp drop -off, during a rough season, starting in March
2020-2021 1
2021--- 0


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#PedMortality

[cato]

IN addition, here is a summary of flu deaths in children per year, true cases, not estimates. Amazing to see how COVID measures in schools decreased the numbers of deaths associated to flu, by 99.5% from the previous year. So if we had not closed school, worn masks, made the smallest of sacrifices, how many more COVID cases and deaths in children would we have experienced.
In case you don't click,
2018-2019 144
2019-2020 199 with a sharp drop -off, during a rough season, starting in March
2020-2021 1
2021--- 0


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#PedMortality

I have read about the Covid measures stopping flu in its tracks, but those numbers tell a stark story.

[freshmanjs]

Interesting, but very inconclusive, article from the New Yorker on whether the pandemic virus had natural origins or was a lab leak: https://www.newyorker.com/science/el...ab-leak-theory

I don't understand why people keep framing it this way. Natural origin vs lab leak is not the question and those things are not exclusive.

There are 2 questions. Question 1: Natural origin vs. man made/modified and Question 2: natural transmission vs. lab leak. There are 3 possibilities in that 2x2 matrix. a) Natural virus, natural transmission. b) Natural virus, lab leak transmission. c) Unnatural virus, lab leak transmission.

Somehow this issue has been framed incorrectly repeatedly and from the beginning.

My personal view (with not much basis) is that IF there was a lab leak, it still was likely natural origin.

[rsvman]

I have read about the Covid measures stopping flu in its tracks, but those numbers tell a stark story.

To ba fair, we don't really know that it was the Covid measures alone that caused the massive drop-off in flu last season. Certainly, lockdowns helped.
But I suspect there was a lot more to it. The pandemic seems to have completely pummeled the usual pattern of endemic viruses that we had become accustomed to over decades. The oddness still hasn't stopped. We had a huge RSV outbreak in the summer, which has never happened before.
There us an ecology to the respiratory viruses, maybe somewhat akin to how there is an ecosystem in a small pond. SARS-CoV-2 was like throwing a cherry bomb into the pond.

[MChambers]

pediatric vaccine.jpg
(She authorized copying this image.)

If the image is too small, try going here: https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch..._2400x3393.png

[niveklaen]

Money quote: Marines refusing the COVID-19 vaccination, absent an approved administrative or medical exemption, religious accommodation, or pending appeal shall be processed for administrative separation

https://www.marines.mil/News/Message...e-corps-activ/

[jafarr1]

On Wednesday I got a Pfizer booster to my original J&J shot.

My J&J reaction was fairly minimal. I took the shot at 10 am, woke up at 1 am the next morning with what felt like chills, but then fell back asleep and was fine in the morning. Otherwise I noted no symptoms.

My Pfizer reaction was much stronger: all-over achiness, a fever, slight upset stomach and a headache that persisted. I worked in the morning but had to beg off at about +22 hours from the shot, with the worst of my symptoms coming between +24 to +27 hours. A BRAT diet, fluids and a bunch of sleep had me feeling close to normal at about +32 hours, and another night’s sleep later, I seem back on track.

[curtis325]

Stuff we all know (mostly), but a nice illustration:

http://phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=2047

[Neals384]

Interesting, but very inconclusive, article from the New Yorker on whether the pandemic virus had natural origins or was a lab leak: https://www.newyorker.com/science/el...ab-leak-theory

Not so inconclusive if you read the article with the knowledge that Daszak and Shi have a very strong motive to deny the lab-leak theory; therefore nothing they say should be believed.

[MChambers]

Not so inconclusive if you read the article with the knowledge that Daszak and Shi have a very strong motive to deny the lab-leak theory; therefore nothing they say should be believed.

I have that knowledge, yet still the article seemed inconclusive to me.

Your post gives me an excuse to post a link to a completely different article that I just read, explaining a difficulty with the lab leak hypothesis.

https://undark.org/2021/10/28/opinio...ated-in-a-lab/

[Skydog]

Stuff we all know (mostly), but a nice illustration:

http://phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=2047

That was cool - I was today years old* when I learned about spike cleaving.

*Apologies to Gen-Z’ers/millennials for my cultural appropriation of a phrase I have no right to use nor any ability to pull off.

[acdevil]

Looks like Pfizer was granted EUA for 5-11 year olds.

[mpj96]

I knew someone would make a joke about this. “Take it to the bank”, I said!

Based on your experience, is it easier to change from the outside in? Or the inside out?

[YmoBeThere]

Money quote: Marines refusing the COVID-19 vaccination, absent an approved administrative or medical exemption, religious accommodation, or pending appeal shall be processed for administrative separation

https://www.marines.mil/News/Message...e-corps-activ/

I would have called this the money quote:

"Marines separated for vaccination refusal will not be eligible for involuntary separation pay and will be subject to recoupment of any unearned special or incentive pays and advance educational assistance. Marines who do not complete their service obligation for Transfer of Education Benefits will lose their eligibility to retain transferred Post-9/11 GI Bill benefits and may be subject to recoupment if the Veterans Affairs has already processed a payment for transferred benefits."

This will happen in the other branches as well.

[camion]

I would have called this the money quote:

"Marines separated for vaccination refusal will not be eligible for involuntary separation pay and will be subject to recoupment of any unearned special or incentive pays and advance educational assistance. Marines who do not complete their service obligation for Transfer of Education Benefits will lose their eligibility to retain transferred Post-9/11 GI Bill benefits and may be subject to recoupment if the Veterans Affairs has already processed a payment for transferred benefits."

This will happen in the other branches as well.

I knew that serving in the military could lead to following orders that put you in life threatening situations. I hadn't considered the opposite.

[aimo]

Was pleased to see ushers actually enforcing the mask rule in Cameron today. Hope they keep it up. The older couple who sit next to us decided to forego this season - not comfortable with the risk, per their son who bought their tickets.

[Acymetric]

Was pleased to see ushers actually enforcing the mask rule in Cameron today. Hope they keep it up. The older couple who sit next to us decided to forego this season - not comfortable with the risk, per their son who bought their tickets.

Lot of empty seats upstairs.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Lot of empty seats upstairs.

Which surprised me.