PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[rsvman]

Eyewitness testimony is unreliable. It might not be the reporters, it might be the sources. Merely witnessing an event for oneself does not necessarily mean one knows what happened. One thing that is almost always true, reporters get the statistics wrong. (Confirmation bias may be in play with that particular belief of mine. ) I find when a newspaper article tackles a subject I know well, the sins are usually sins of omission, they don't get the whole story but what they do get is mostly right. It's always best to read more than one take on an important story. Also, reporters are more likely to get a story right when it's something they know well, so, any story on physics is likely to have more errors than a story on local politics.

One time I read a story that included information about one of my best friends. It had so-called quotes from her. When I read the quotes, I immediately knew there was no way she said the things they said she said.

I called her up just to tell her I didn't believe it and she confirmed that she had never said anything even remotely close to what they actually put inside quotation marks in the story.


So while I agree with you that most of the time errors are errors of omission, it also depends on the source. The case I cited above was from a tabloid newspaper. What I learned that day is that not only do they have no qualms about telling a story that is blatantly false, but they also don't blink about making up, whole cloth, even quotes from people in the story.

[MChambers]

All that being said (and I think BostonDevil agrees with me on this but I don't want to put words in her mouth), these errors do not justify the contempt and complete distrust that many people currently show for the "Mainstream media" (I hate that term). In their news reporting, they generally get it a lot more right than most others, particularly a lot more right than conspiracy theorists with zero knowledge of a topic sitting in their bunkers looking for a nugget of information that agrees with their preconceived notions. Yes, there are plenty of examples of them making mistakes, but overall, they do very well and their reporters take their jobs very seriously.

This is symptomatic of the overall distrust of experts that we have discussed throughout this thread. It is very destructive to the well-being of society, and news outlets whose sole purpose is taking cheap shots at other news outlets and experts and thus breeding an overall level of distrust in previously accepted norms and institutions do not help the situation.

Yes, I completely agree. Even though I started us down this detour, I did not mean to say that the mainstream media should be distrusted.

[Bostondevil]

One time I read a story that included information about one of my best friends. It had so-called quotes from her. When I read the quotes, I immediately knew there was no way she said the things they said she said.

I called her up just to tell her I didn't believe it and she confirmed that she had never said anything even remotely close to what they actually put inside quotation marks in the story.


So while I agree with you that most of the time errors are errors of omission, it also depends on the source. The case I cited above was from a tabloid newspaper. What I learned that day is that not only do they have no qualms about telling a story that is blatantly false, but they also don't blink about making up, whole cloth, even quotes from people in the story.

That's an oxymoron! We're getting off topic a bit here, so, apologies, but I fully expect in the future when tabloids are sued for libel, they will pull out the "nobody should be taking us seriously, we're entertainment" defense. I personally don't hold tabloids to the same standards that I hold what I will call, for lack of a better term, serious newspapers. Tabloids are mainstream media but they aren't news outlets.

[Phredd3]

Got my Pfizer booster in one arm yesterday, flu shot in other arm. Moderate injection-site soreness but nothing else so far. It's been 24 hours, so I guess I'm out of the woods.

Lucky you. I did that same thing right at noon yesterday. Almost exactly 12 hours later, I had the worst chills I've ever experienced as an adult. I was contracting so hard in my shivers that I hurt my back. I ended up getting out of bed, putting on three additional layers, slippers, a winter hat, three blankets, and two pillows. It still took more than an hour to warm up, and then everything went the other way, and I had to remove as much of all that as practicable. Lather, rinse, repeat. I've had effectively zero sleep.

I called in sick today. Anything important I try to deal with today I'm going to screw up.

[curtis325]

Lucky you. I did that same thing right at noon yesterday. Almost exactly 12 hours later, I had the worst chills I've ever experienced as an adult. I was contracting so hard in my shivers that I hurt my back. I ended up getting out of bed, putting on three additional layers, slippers, a winter hat, three blankets, and two pillows. It still took more than an hour to warm up, and then everything went the other way, and I had to remove as much of all that as practicable. Lather, rinse, repeat. I've had effectively zero sleep.

I called in sick today. Anything important I try to deal with today I'm going to screw up.

My experience with getting both shots on the same day is very similar to yours (but not quite as severe). The first two Pfizer shots did not affect me at all, so maybe it was the flu vaccine that gave me the symptoms. After 48 hours I was back to normal.

[DST Fan]

The Washington Post published a similar story today regarding a study of the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine after six months. The study concluded that, after six months, Pfizer was 90% effective at preventing death and hospitalization. However, the vaccine's effectiveness at preventing infections apparently declined significantly.

I had been considering delaying my third shot of Pfizer until closer to the winter, but I went ahead and made an appointment for a third shot later this week.

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...dy-2021-10-04/

[budwom]

The Washington Post published a similar story today regarding a study of the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine after six months. The study concluded that, after six months, Pfizer was 90% effective at preventing death and hospitalization. However, the vaccine's effectiveness at preventing infections apparently declined significantly.

I had been considering delaying my third shot of Pfizer until closer to the winter, but I went ahead and made an appointment for a third shot later this week.

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...dy-2021-10-04/

Might as well (I got my third) because I'm betting we'll get a fourth shot sometime in the not too distant future.

[Skydog]

Eyewitness testimony is unreliable. It might not be the reporters, it might be the sources. Merely witnessing an event for oneself does not necessarily mean one knows what happened. One thing that is almost always true, reporters get the statistics wrong. (Confirmation bias may be in play with that particular belief of mine. ) I find when a newspaper article tackles a subject I know well, the sins are usually sins of omission, they don't get the whole story but what they do get is mostly right. It's always best to read more than one take on an important story. Also, reporters are more likely to get a story right when it's something they know well, so, any story on physics is likely to have more errors than a story on local politics.

I promise you - these weren’t eyewitness error type mistakes. These were fundamental errors of basic facts - like the who, what, where and why would all be riddled with mistakes. For example the article would be discussing a new university policy and switch the names of the persons or organizations who created with the persons or groups who opposed it, incorrectly describe the policy’s provisions to such an extent that it changed the whole meaning, and then note that 65 student council members voted for it when it was actually 65 who voted against. There were multiple such errors in every article I’ve ever read about a particular event that I had first hand knowledge about.

PS - Again these weren’t agenda driven errors. They were just sloppy research and careless (but often significant) errors.

[camion]

Done. I got the PCR test this morning. My online doctor sent me to a place that only did PCR. So now I'm waiting for results and will segregate myself from other humans until they arrive.

I'm feeling better and fever is largely gone. The major nastiness lasted about 12 hours. If I had to put money on it at this point I would bet on a flu shot reaction. It's a different from any reaction I can ever recall having to a flu shot. Or maybe I'm just more sensitive emotionally to such reactions since Covid hit.

One further comment on the experience, whoever developed the swab-up-nose methodology must be a sadist. I'd much rather have a shot than a test.

Update:

The Covid PCR test came back - Negative.

But wait, there's more. I originally posted too early before the entire story was in.
This appears to be pattern that is repeating events from back in April.
1. Fever and general ickyness for 12 hours or so.
2. 24 hours later the left leg swells up. Cellulitis?
3. I'm now on antibiotics and wondering, what the heck.
3a. Yes, ultrasound check for blood clots was negative.

[DukieInKansas]

I promise you - these weren’t eyewitness error type mistakes. These were fundamental errors of basic facts - like the who, what, where and why would all be riddled with mistakes. For example the article would be discussing a new university policy and switch the names of the persons or organizations who created with the persons or groups who opposed it, incorrectly describe the policy’s provisions to such an extent that it changed the whole meaning, and then note that 65 student council members voted for it when it was actually 65 who voted against. There were multiple such errors in every article I’ve ever read about a particular event that I had first hand knowledge about.

PS - Again these weren’t agenda driven errors. They were just sloppy research and careless (but often significant) errors.

I actually wrote to a reporter to correct them when they had Jonestown happening in Africa instead of South America. Sometimes you just have to shake your head.

Camion - glad the test was negative!

[sagegrouse]

I actually wrote to a reporter to correct them when they had Jonestown happening in Africa instead of South America. Sometimes you just have to shake your head.

Camion - glad the test was negative!

Aren't you being picky about the differences among Guyana, Guinea, and Ghana?

[DukieInKansas]

Aren't you being picky about the differences among Guyana, Guinea, and Ghana?

Yes, being a bit picky but I can still remember the feelings generated during the two class sessions listening to the tapes from the end at Jonestown. Great class (Modern American Religious Cults) but very depressing two days.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

i got an email today about Home Coming this November at Duke. Quoting:

That’s right! Blue Devils, the time has come to return to our beloved campus! The friends, the memories, the fun – it's all here at Duke Homecoming 2021. Bring your energy, enthusiasm and excitement as you join fellow alumni and university colleagues to celebrate the traditions we all love. With precautions in place, things may look a little different this year, but we’ll have a blast and keep you informed at every step of the way. Register now for the Duke event of the season or get a sneak peek of all the events planned through the weekend. November 5-7 can’t be here soon enough. We look forward to seeing you soon in the truest blue!

To protect the health and safety of our campus and local communities, all visitors to Duke are expected to be fully vaccinated for COVID-19. As of July 30, all individuals, regardless of vaccination status, are required to wear masks indoors in all Duke buildings and outdoors at large events. These requirements are subject to change on short notice based on public health conditions. You can stay updated on Duke’s policies at our Coronavirus Response page.

Bolding was in the email. So two questions:
1. Why isn't this the policy for football games?
2. When will they send out the policy requirement for basketball games in Cameron?

[PackMan97]

This appears to be pattern that is repeating events from back in April.

I'm not a doctor and this is not medical advice. Given the date of onset, it is quite possibly severe basketball withdrawal. Please watch some past games on youtube and see if symptoms improve.

[Bluedog]

NY Times argues that the FDA in the U.S. has been horrible as it relates to approval/manufacturing/use of widespread rapid (antigen) testing which has been ubiquitous in Europe and is another major arrow in our quiver that can be used effectively to get back more to normal. We are FINALLY seeing the tide turn, but it's a bit too late.

[A]ntigen tests [...] are widely available not only in Britain but also France, Germany and some other places. Rapid tests can identify roughly 98 percent of infectious Covid cases and have helped reduce the virus’s spread in Europe.

In the U.S., by contrast, rapid tests are hard to find, because the Food and Drug Administration has been slow to approve them. F.D.A. officials have defended their reluctance by saying that they need to make sure the tests work — which they certainly do. But many outside scientists have criticized the agency for blocking even those antigen tests with a demonstrated record of success in other countries.

The F.D.A. has preferred a different kind of test, known as a P.C.R. test

Here's some irony - the company (Acon Laboratories) that has been supplying a lot of rapid tests to Europe is based in San Diego...

As Tabarrok says, “If we are smart, we will replace masks with tests in the schools, workplaces and Thanksgiving celebrations.”

Would love that...

It is too late for rapid tests to do nearly as much good as they could have done last year, before vaccines were widely available. When future historians and scientists grade the U.S. response to the pandemic, testing is still likely to be counted as a major F.D.A. failure, across both the Trump and Biden administrations. It has been a case study of how bureaucratic caution — and a refusal to get creative during a crisis — can do harm.

Amen...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/b...-approval.html

[dudog84]

Yes, being a bit picky but I can still remember the feelings generated during the two class sessions listening to the tapes from the end at Jonestown. Great class (Modern American Religious Cults) but very depressing two days.

Could be wrong, but I think Sage is agreeing with you. Lord knows I've been misjudged many a time for a pithy (IMHO) comment.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My sister who works in education was encouraged to get her Moderna booster this week. She thought it wise to go ahead and get her flu shot at the same time.

48 hours later, she's laid out with a 101 temp for the last two days. Not sure if that's an advertisement for not doubling down on the two at the same time, or just an unfortunate coincidence.

Educated thoughts or opinions?

[cspan37421]

My sister who works in education was encouraged to get her Moderna booster this week. She thought it wise to go ahead and get her flu shot at the same time.

48 hours later, she's laid out with a 101 temp for the last two days. Not sure if that's an advertisement for not doubling down on the two at the same time, or just an unfortunate coincidence.

Educated thoughts or opinions?

Is a booster of Moderna approved yet for anyone in USA? I only knew they were looking at it. Thought that only Pfizer was approved at this point for boosters.

As for flu shot + Covid booster, IDK. Wasn't there a report upthread about the same, or was that you? In any case, saw something (just confirmed it in a NYT article) about the "active" ingredient in the vaccines, Moderna going with 100 microgram dose vs. 30 for Pfizer. That may affect perceived need for boosting one method (Pfizer) versus the other, or the timing thereof.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Is a booster of Moderna approved yet for anyone in USA? I only knew they were looking at it. Thought that only Pfizer was approved at this point for boosters.

As for flu shot + Covid booster, IDK. Wasn't there a report upthread about the same, or was that you? In any case, saw something (just confirmed it in a NYT article) about the "active" ingredient in the vaccines, Moderna going with 100 microgram dose vs. 30 for Pfizer. That may affect perceived need for boosting one method (Pfizer) versus the other, or the timing thereof.

It may have been Pfizer. My sister is fever addled and this was second hand through my parents.

[cspan37421]

NY Times argues that the FDA in the U.S. has been horrible as it relates to approval/manufacturing/use of widespread rapid (antigen) testing which has been ubiquitous in Europe and is another major arrow in our quiver that can be used effectively to get back more to normal. We are FINALLY seeing the tide turn, but it's a bit too late.

FWIW our county in SE TN distributed FREE a box of 25 antigen tests upon request. Last I heard they had more for the taking (I suspect a grant was provided rather than the largesse of the county treasury). We've used 7 of 25 ... they're good til February 2022, IIRC. We've have held off requesting more simply out of consideration that SOMEONE around here must have a greater / more pressing need than we do. It has crossed my mind though that with the holidays coming up that we may go through our remainder and not have any more ... at least no more free.

Anyway I think the antigen tests have a ~15% false negative rate, mostly if you are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. We have only tested on a precautionary basis, before visiting loved ones from out of state, not after any evident symptoms. Last I heard, it's possible to spread it for a couple/few days before an antigen test would reveal a positive. And you have to wait for a PCR test result, usually. IDK about a school setting but here at home they're most likely just going to be used (if ever) to confirm symptoms, or direct us to get a confirming PCR test. A friend and spouse recently got exposed - he was symptomatic, she was not. He tested + on antigen, she tested -. At the same time, they got PCR tests. 2-3 days later they BOTH came back as positive. In the meantime she had developed mild symptoms.

Given these lags I'm not sure how useful home testing is if we are resuming normality and not catching it until after spreading it for a few days. As you suggested, they may have been more valuable early on.