PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[camion]

Mmmmmmm . . . yummy!

Attachment 13589

A little too crunchy for my taste.

[JasonEvans]

Mmmmmmm . . . yummy!

Attachment 13589

Go ahead... lie to me and tell me that dude does not look like a walking artichoke.

[Stray Gator]

New studies published by the CDC show that (a) unvaccinated people "were over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 11 times more likely to die of covid-19 than those who were fully vaccinated"; and (b) the Moderna vaccine "was moderately more effective in preventing hospitalizations than its counterparts from Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...v2s4ShspQoKbFI

I'm not yet ready to become a member of Joe Biden’s fan club. But as one who is eager to see us emerge from this dreadful maelstrom in which we seem anchored by an increasingly vocal and sometimes vicious minority of irrational Refuseniks, I applaud him for implementing bold measures to break through this pointless impediment to the economic, social, and psychological recovery of our country. History has proven that the resolution of difficult problems sometimes requires dramatic, unpopular action. So while I don't support all of the programs and proposals he advocates, I commend this President for having the courage to put the well-being of our people -- and especially the very young and very old who remain particularly vulnerable -- above considerations of political expediency.

I believe that the majority has been more than reasonably patient and accommodating in trying to persuade or incentivize those who remain unvaccinated to do the right thing. Whether their persistent reluctance is due to hesitancy or hardheadedness should at this point be deemed immaterial. When the Refuseniks are no longer satisfied merely to reject the vaccine for themselves, but resort to ridiculing a young student who pleads for masking in schools because his grandmother died from COVID, and actively interfering with efforts to administer the vaccine to others who want it, they leave the majority no alternative but to set aside the carrots and take up sticks.

[Bluedog]

Oh - misunderstanding on my part, I thought you were talking about the flu. At least I think I was? Now I've confused myself.

Sorry for the confusion. The suggestion is that for COVID, the under 4s are at much less relative risk to death than adults (esp older adults) than the flu - different "ratios". Hence, why in a typical flu season, I think we see about a 25x number of 65+ deaths compared to under 18s, but for COVID is has been something like 300x. Thus, vaccinations for 65+ for COVID are MUCH more impactful on total death counts than for the <18 crowd in comparison to flu vaccines, although as noted, the youngins can still contribute to spread for COVID so still would be of value...But the risk/reward to the INDIVIDUAL for young children is a different calculus based on this and given the potential "unknowns"/lack of data for COVID vaccines on children at this point compared to decades of data on flu. Hope that makes sense, I'm not an anti-vaxxer by any means, but just calling out the differences.

And I'm confusing myself too sometimes...

[MChambers]

The natural occurrence theory hasn't been ruled out but consider the steps needed.

Corona virus in a cave 900 miles from Wuhan has a mutation that adds the spike protein
Bat from that cave flies to Wuhan, far outside its natural range, where it infects an intermediate host
Intermediate host infects homans
Two of the early human hosts just happen to be Wuhan lab employees.

From the journal Cell:

"We contend that although the animal reservoir for SARS-CoV2 has not been identified and the key species may not have been tested, in contrast to other scenarios there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin. Although the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed, and may be near impossible to falsify, this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the numerous and repeated human animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure to comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies would leave the world vulnerable to future pandemics arising from the same human activities that have repeatedly put us on a collision course with novel viruses."

The authors of this article have impressive backgrounds and no obvious conflicts, at least to my eye.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-...showall%3Dtrue

[ArkieDukie]

From the journal Cell:

"We contend that although the animal reservoir for SARS-CoV2 has not been identified and the key species may not have been tested, in contrast to other scenarios there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin. Although the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed, and may be near impossible to falsify, this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the numerous and repeated human animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure to comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies would leave the world vulnerable to future pandemics arising from the same human activities that have repeatedly put us on a collision course with novel viruses."

The authors of this article have impressive backgrounds and no obvious conflicts, at least to my eye.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-...showall%3Dtrue

This was my impression. I was a bit out of the loop while my brother was hospitalized, so I thought something might have changed. Based on interviews I’ve read with foreign virologists who have worked in the Wuhan lab, safety precautions are followed pretty seriously.

[YmoBeThere]

From the journal Cell:

"We contend that although the animal reservoir for SARS-CoV2 has not been identified and the key species may not have been tested, in contrast to other scenarios there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin. Although the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed, and may be near impossible to falsify, this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the numerous and repeated human animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure to comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies would leave the world vulnerable to future pandemics arising from the same human activities that have repeatedly put us on a collision course with novel viruses."

The authors of this article have impressive backgrounds and no obvious conflicts, at least to my eye.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-...showall%3Dtrue

So, we are all agreed, right? This is all UNC's fault. If those boys from Chapel Hill would quit messing around with the local livestock, none of this would have happened.

[ArkieDukie]

So, we are all agreed, right? This is all UNC's fault. If those boys from Chapel Hill would quit messing around with the local livestock, none of this would have happened.

All bad things come from UNC; on this we can all agree.

[mph]

Update on my breakthrough infection. I finished quarantine on Wednesday and my symptoms remained mild throughout. I have an occasional cough and have only regained a small fraction of my sense of smell, but otherwise I’m good. My wife tested positive 4 days after my test. Her symptoms are similarly very mild. I found out today that 6 of the 13 people in our meeting tested positive, including 4 vaccinated, one unvaccinated, and 1 unknown. 3 of the 4 vaccinated folks were wearing masks and a minimum of 8 feet away from the symptomatic colleague. 5 of the 6 have fully or nearly-fully recovered but the colleague who showed up to the meeting symptomatic and unmasked is in the hospital on oxygen. Praying for his recovery.

[ArkieDukie]

Update on my breakthrough infection. I finished quarantine on Wednesday and my symptoms remained mild throughout. I have an occasional cough and have only regained a small fraction of my sense of smell, but otherwise I’m good. My wife tested positive 4 days after my test. Her symptoms are similarly very mild. I found out today that 6 of the 13 people in our meeting tested positive, including 4 vaccinated, one unvaccinated, and 1 unknown. 3 of the 4 vaccinated folks were wearing masks and a minimum of 8 feet away from the symptomatic colleague. 5 of the 6 have fully or nearly-fully recovered but the colleague who showed up to the meeting symptomatic and unmasked is in the hospital on oxygen. Praying for his recovery.

That’s so sad. I’m glad you’re on the road to recovery. Prayers for your colleague. Nasal cannula, BiPaP or intubated?

[mph]

That’s so sad. I’m glad you’re on the road to recovery. Prayers for your colleague. Nasal cannula, BiPaP or intubated?

Nasal cannula. He actually called in to our virtual meeting today. He sounded rough but seemed to be in good spirits.

[rsvman]

The natural occurrence theory hasn't been ruled out but consider the steps needed.

Corona virus in a cave 900 miles from Wuhan has a mutation that adds the spike protein
Bat from that cave flies to Wuhan, far outside its natural range, where it infects an intermediate host
Intermediate host infects homans
Two of the early human hosts just happen to be Wuhan lab employees.

WTH are you talking about? It didn't acquire a spike protein. All coronaviruses have a spike protein. If they didn't, they couldn't replicate. And if they couldn't replicate, they wouldn't be viruses.

[ArkieDukie]

Nasal cannula. He actually called in to our virtual meeting today. He sounded rough but seemed to be in good spirits.

That is encouraging. Hope his condition improves enough where he can go home soon.

[freshmanjs]

From the journal Cell:

"We contend that although the animal reservoir for SARS-CoV2 has not been identified and the key species may not have been tested, in contrast to other scenarios there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin. Although the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed, and may be near impossible to falsify, this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the numerous and repeated human animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure to comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies would leave the world vulnerable to future pandemics arising from the same human activities that have repeatedly put us on a collision course with novel viruses."

The authors of this article have impressive backgrounds and no obvious conflicts, at least to my eye.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-...showall%3Dtrue

Thanks for sharing. I read it. I have no idea what the origin of the virus is, but 2 of their main arguments against the lab origin are not compelling

1 - that if it were a lab leak, you would expect it to be a virus we recognize because past lab leaks have been viruses we recognize. This argument simply ignores the fact that the wuhan lab was doing different work than the labs where prior leaks have occurred. This is very weak logic and obviously flawed

2 - they make the frustratingly common mistake of mixing up 2 issues. Lab created vs lab leaked. They cite evidence that the virus doesn’t appear man made and use that to suggest it didn’t come from a lab. The 2 things are not logically linked. You could have natural or engineered virus and it could spread in nature or in a lab accident. At least 3 of the boxes on that 2x2 can exist. Saying the virus appears natural does not tell you anything at all about whether it leaked from a lab.

[camion]

Thanks for sharing. I read it. I have no idea what the origin of the virus is, but 2 of their main arguments against the lab origin are not compelling

1 - that if it were a lab leak, you would expect it to be a virus we recognize because past lab leaks have been viruses we recognize. This argument simply ignores the fact that the wuhan lab was doing different work than the labs where prior leaks have occurred. This is very weak logic and obviously flawed

2 - they make the frustratingly common mistake of mixing up 2 issues. Lab created vs lab leaked. They cite evidence that the virus doesn’t appear man made and use that to suggest it didn’t come from a lab. The 2 things are not logically linked. You could have natural or engineered virus and it could spread in nature or in a lab accident. At least 3 of the boxes on that 2x2 can exist. Saying the virus appears natural does not tell you anything at all about whether it leaked from a lab.

How about this argument?

0. In the past, new diseases almost always have a natural origin, not a lab origin. This one is likely the same.


Note: The hybrid possibility that the disease occurred naturally and was brought to the lab and escaped? Possible, but the Wuhan wet market has many fewer safeguards than a lab does.

[freshmanjs]

How about this argument?

0. In the past, new diseases almost always have a natural origin, not a lab origin. This one is likely the same.


Note: The hybrid possibility that the disease occurred naturally and was brought to the lab and escaped? Possible, but the Wuhan wet market has many fewer safeguards than a lab does.

Your argument 0 doesn't hold. The fact that there hasn't been a pandemic caused by a lab leak in the past really doesn't tell us much about what happened here at all. There haven't been labs like this for very long and lab leaks indeed have happened in the past, despite safeguards. Again, I don't know how to handicap lab leak vs. natural jump to humans, but a lot of the arguments being used to suggest it obviously wasn't a lab leak are not compelling at all.

Additionally, I've noticed that many people seem to have an allergic reaction to the idea that it could have come from a lab. Why is that? I can understand the emotional reactions people have to many aspects of this pandemic, but not that one. Actually, it is much, much better for all of us if it was a lab leak. Lab leaks are much more easily preventable. So, for that reason, I really, really hope it was a lab leak.

One heuristic I've learned when evaluating a widely held position is to look at the strongest arguments being offered in support of it. If the strongest arguments aren't compelling, then there is a good chance the position is wrong. Especially when it's defended ferociously. (The position I'm referring to in this case is that it was clearly not a lab leak)

[rsvman]

that I predicted about 100 pages ago in this thread is apparently coming to pass.

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...source=twitter

Moderna creating a combined SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccine for likely annual boosters. I want to pat myself on the back about predicting this correctly (and I kind of already did, but I feel like this one was so easy it's kind of like taking credit for making a 2-foot birdie putt for your scramble team after one of your playing partners hit the fantastic approach shot. I mean, it's true that you hit the putt that gave your team the birdie, but it wasn't that much of an accomplishment.


Novavax is also working on a combined SARS-CoV-2/influenza vaccine, even though their SARS-CoV-2 vaccine isn't even on the market yet. Their influenza vaccine is also experimental, so this one could be a long way off, especially since I heard they have run into some funding snags even for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. (Which is too bad, because I feel like there are people out there [don't know how many] that would get a subunit vaccine if it were available even though they are opposed to the mRNA vaccines; in fact, I met one recently. She was actually hospitalized for 9 days with Covid, and was still saying people shouldn't get the mRNA vaccines, but when I told her about the Novavax vaccine she was excited for it to get produced so she could receive it.)

[dudog84]

that I predicted about 100 pages ago in this thread is apparently coming to pass.

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...source=twitter

Moderna creating a combined SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccine for likely annual boosters. I want to pat myself on the back about predicting this correctly (and I kind of already did, but I feel like this one was so easy it's kind of like taking credit for making a 2-foot birdie putt for your scramble team after one of your playing partners hit the fantastic approach shot. I mean, it's true that you hit the putt that gave your team the birdie, but it wasn't that much of an accomplishment.


Novavax is also working on a combined SARS-CoV-2/influenza vaccine, even though their SARS-CoV-2 vaccine isn't even on the market yet. Their influenza vaccine is also experimental, so this one could be a long way off, especially since I heard they have run into some funding snags even for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. (Which is too bad, because I feel like there are people out there [don't know how many] that would get a subunit vaccine if it were available even though they are opposed to the mRNA vaccines; in fact, I met one recently. She was actually hospitalized for 9 days with Covid, and was still saying people shouldn't get the mRNA vaccines, but when I told her about the Novavax vaccine she was excited for it to get produced so she could receive it.)

So you're saying we gave people too much information. If they would have just said "vaccine" most people would have taken it. But once they said RNA, spike protein, etc. people freaked out.

[freshmanjs]

So you're saying we gave people too much information. If they would have just said "vaccine" most people would have taken it. But once they said RNA, spike protein, etc. people freaked out.

I think it really just means the disinformation campaign against the novavax product hasn’t started yet

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So you're saying we gave people too much information. If they would have just said "vaccine" most people would have taken it. But once they said RNA, spike protein, etc. people freaked out.

This was from several months back in April but I found this video of Dr Fauci and Marshawn Lynch discussing the reluctancy of the African American community to get vaccines. It's the longest I've ever heard Lynch speak about anything. I'm biased as a Seahawks fan, but I came away from the video impressed with both men for engaging in the dialogue.

Being Marshawn, there is some spicy language.