PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Bluedog]

Thought the data is not out, I understand thepowersthatbe are pretty confident that spread from vaccinated people will be very minimal.

Right agreed. I did read a researcher basically say: "this would be the first vaccine/virus that does NOT act that way, so would be extraordinarily surprised if it's not the case."

[Bluedog]

The below article popped up on my newsfeed and thought it was interesting...The author argues that a pretty widespread movement to stop at nothing to achieve zero COVID cases ("ZeroCovid"; for a given country) has major costs -- and is best suited for a "totalitarian aim, best delivered by a totalitarian state." It's also a movement that is NOT fringe, but very mainstream with well-respected scientists and others being a part of it.

I had never heard of the site "unherd" but a quick google doesn't seem to indicate any clear bias. Seems to be British.
https://unherd.com/2021/02/inside-th...ovid-campaign/

Most people accept the need for sensible border controls to defend against new variants while the vaccine is still being rolled out. But if our goal is an entirely Covid-free land, why would we ever relax border restrictions? You’d have to wait until the disease were eradicated on a global scale, which even the most committed activists don’t think is possible for years. As Irish minister and former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said last week, ZeroCovid is "a promise you could never fulfil"; if you cut off the country, "when do you ever unseal, because then inevitably, you let the virus back in again"?

Still, perhaps the thorniest question is what life would be like inside our theoretical ZeroCovid fortress. At last week’s conference, speakers explained that they prefer to use Australia and New Zealand as good examples because they garner a more positive response than when they mention Asian countries. But the country that invented the approach, one which may be a better guide of a large nation pursing the strategy after a severe outbreak, is China...

And China is basically a surveillance state right now...

The article concludes:

But as the impact of the vaccine is felt and the number of cases continues to fall, the politically difficult question of what constitutes an acceptable level of infection will have to be addressed.

Whatever that level is, expect well-spoken ZeroCovid campaigners to say it is too high. At each hesitant step towards opening up society, expect it to be called irresponsible and short-termist. No doubt ZeroCoviders sincerely believe their campaign for a Covid-free world is a noble one. But how successful they are at influencing policy will affect the shape of our society for years to come.

In any event, thought it was thought-provoking. The key question is "what is an acceptable level/risk profile"? I would say it's when we get to "flu-like" numbers perhaps in the U.S. But it's been so ingrained as a scary thing (and it is scary, I'm not saying it's not) that I think a ~50,000 year death rate for COVID will garner much harsher restrictions than anything we've ever done with the flu. Of course, would be amazing if we make COVID eventually like a cold in this country, but will likely have to be a step ahead as far as mutations/booster shots.

Here's a paper arguing for the ZeroCovid strategy as a counterpoint:
https://www.isglobal.org/en_GB/-/-qu...e-la-pandemia-

[Lord Ash]

I have to say, I haven't seen anyone say that they are expecting a zero covid rate. That seems impossible.

[Bluedog]

I have to say, I haven't seen anyone say that they are expecting a zero covid rate. That seems impossible.

Well, this is the strategy per the link I provided above:

"The objective of this strategy is to keep transmission of the virus as close to zero as possible and ultimately to eliminate it entirely from particular geographical areas. The strategy aims to increase the capacity to identify and trace chains of transmission and to identify and manage outbreaks, while also integrating economic, psychological, social and health-care support to guarantee the isolation of cases and contacts. This approach is also known as "Find, Test, Trace, Isolate and Support” (FTTIS).

The more coordinated, flexible and effective the process, the easier it is to curb the circulation of the virus and keep the number of cases close to zero. Likewise, the lower the incidence of infection, the more effective the strategy is and the easier it becomes to slow the pandemic and mitigate its impacts on health, society and the economy.

As a public health strategy, it is important to distinguish maximum suppression from the strategy of seeking to end the pandemic by gradually allowing the population to become infected. This approach, known as herd immunity, can be a lengthy and costly way to control an epidemic."

I guess it doesn't necessarily address "herd immunity by vaccinations." Maybe it's a "zero COVID" strategy until "herd immunity" is reached, don't know. As stated, it's basically the strategies of Australia, China, etc.

[duke79]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/14/us/du...vid/index.html

Above the "fold" headline on The Drudge Report" today about Duke's lock-down. Story links to the News and Observer story.

https://www.drudgereport.com/

[Skydog]

Well, this is the strategy per the link I provided above:


I guess it doesn't necessarily address "herd immunity by vaccinations." Maybe it's a "zero COVID" strategy until "herd immunity" is reached, don't know. As stated, it's basically the strategies of Australia, China, etc.

Speaking of herd immunity, last nights 60 Minutes (yes, I'm in their demographic) had a piece on a region of Brazil (can't remember name) that was hit really hard last spring, with over 70% of the population infected. Researchers hoped for, and expected, herd immunity. The region is now enduring a new wave of covid infections, complete with overwhelmed hospitals and morgues - probably due to new variants. This strongly suggests that those pushing to allow the virus to spread to build natural herd immunity may have been chasing very expensive fools gold. Anyway I found the results discouraging in general. Hopefully vaccination immunity lasts longer than so called natural herd immunity.

[MChambers]

Speaking of herd immunity, last nights 60 Minutes (yes, I'm in their demographic) had a piece on a region of Brazil (can't remember name) that was hit really hard last spring, with over 70% of the population infected. Researchers hoped for, and expected, herd immunity. The region is now enduring a new wave of covid infections, complete with overwhelmed hospitals and morgues - probably due to new variants. This strongly suggests that those pushing to allow the virus to spread to build natural herd immunity may have been chasing very expensive fools gold. Anyway I found the results discouraging in general. Hopefully vaccination immunity lasts longer than so called natural herd immunity.

You’re thinking of Manaus. There have been several print stories about Manaus’s tragic resurgence of the virus. Some are linked in this thread.

[rsvman]

Moderna now launching a phase 1 trial of a “second-generation” mRNA vaccine. The principal difference being that this one is going to be refrigerator stable. They are going to be testing four different dosages for two-dose administration and a single dose of the highest dosage, and comparing results with those obtained by their current vaccine.

Could be a couple of breakthroughs here. We may find out either that a single dose of 100 microgram dose is enough, or that maybe two doses of 10 or 20 micrograms each may suffice, hopefully with a lot fewer side effects. Also, if it works just as well but is refrigerator stable, even if it requires a higher dose, it will be a huge step forward, especially toward getting the vaccine to people in non-industrialized countries.

[YmoBeThere]

Moderna now launching a phase 1 trial of a “second-generation” mRNA vaccine. The principal difference being that this one is going to be refrigerator stable. They are going to be testing four different dosages for two-dose administration and a single dose of the highest dosage, and comparing results with those obtained by their current vaccine.

Could be a couple of breakthroughs here. We may find out either that a single dose of 100 microgram dose is enough, or that maybe two doses of 10 or 20 micrograms each may suffice, hopefully with a lot fewer side effects. Also, if it works just as well but is refrigerator stable, even if it requires a higher dose, it will be a huge step forward, especially toward getting the vaccine to people in non-industrialized countries.

I'm curious where they will test this with increasing amounts of known quantities available*? Will the candidate pool look very different than prior pools?

*I have 4 newly eligible co-workers(50+) here in Texas who got their first dose of Pfizer yesterday.

[Rich]

Full disclosure, I am a Pfizer employee, but I thought this 45 minute video would be of interest to some of you

[Lord Ash]

Some real issues popping up here in NJ amongst teachers...

NJ guidelines say that you have to quarantine after travel out of the immediate area, meaning that teachers who travel over the spring break will have to quarantine. But CDC guidelines say that vaccinated people don't have to quarantine if they have been around someone with covid. So travelling to Vermont = quarantine, spending a day inside with someone with covid =/= quarantine? How does that make sense?

Then the NJ guidelines say that if you have had covid in the last three months you don't have to quarantine. So having covid =/= quarantine, but having vaccine = quarantine. How does that make sense?

Then, on top of all of that, some districts are saying that teachers who have to quarantine after vacation cannot teach virtually and instead have to use sick days. So if a teacher goes on vacation, they then have to take the next two weeks off, leaving the class instruction 100 percent under a sub during this insane time, rather than allowing the teacher to teach virtually and just having the sub to provide a body in the classroom. So, same cost to the district... they need a sub either way... but they won't let the teacher teach, even if they WANT to.

Hoping that we get new guidance sometime soon... they say new guidelines are on the horizon.

[duke79]

Some real issues popping up here in NJ amongst teachers...

NJ guidelines say that you have to quarantine after travel out of the immediate area, meaning that teachers who travel over the spring break will have to quarantine. But CDC guidelines say that vaccinated people don't have to quarantine if they have been around someone with covid. So travelling to Vermont = quarantine, spending a day inside with someone with covid =/= quarantine? How does that make sense?

Then the NJ guidelines say that if you have had covid in the last three months you don't have to quarantine. So having covid =/= quarantine, but having vaccine = quarantine. How does that make sense?

Then, on top of all of that, some districts are saying that teachers who have to quarantine after vacation cannot teach virtually and instead have to use sick days. So if a teacher goes on vacation, they then have to take the next two weeks off, leaving the class instruction 100 percent under a sub during this insane time, rather than allowing the teacher to teach virtually and just having the sub to provide a body in the classroom. So, same cost to the district... they need a sub either way... but they won't let the teacher teach, even if they WANT to.

Hoping that we get new guidance sometime soon... they say new guidelines are on the horizon.

Oh God, the bureaucracy at work!

[aimo]

Some real issues popping up here in NJ amongst teachers...

NJ guidelines say that you have to quarantine after travel out of the immediate area, meaning that teachers who travel over the spring break will have to quarantine. But CDC guidelines say that vaccinated people don't have to quarantine if they have been around someone with covid. So travelling to Vermont = quarantine, spending a day inside with someone with covid =/= quarantine? How does that make sense?

Then the NJ guidelines say that if you have had covid in the last three months you don't have to quarantine. So having covid =/= quarantine, but having vaccine = quarantine. How does that make sense?

Then, on top of all of that, some districts are saying that teachers who have to quarantine after vacation cannot teach virtually and instead have to use sick days. So if a teacher goes on vacation, they then have to take the next two weeks off, leaving the class instruction 100 percent under a sub during this insane time, rather than allowing the teacher to teach virtually and just having the sub to provide a body in the classroom. So, same cost to the district... they need a sub either way... but they won't let the teacher teach, even if they WANT to.

Hoping that we get new guidance sometime soon... they say new guidelines are on the horizon.

My sister-in-law teaches at a wealthy private school. Over this past Thanksgiving, the teachers were told not to leave town for the holiday and potentially expose themselves and risk getting the students sick when everyone returned. Interesting that the STUDENTS were not told this, as they were flying off all over the country. Didn't matter that THEY could potentially get the teachers sick.

[johnb]

My sister-in-law teaches at a wealthy private school. Over this past Thanksgiving, the teachers were told not to leave town for the holiday and potentially expose themselves and risk getting the students sick when everyone returned. Interesting that the STUDENTS were not told this, as they were flying off all over the country. Didn't matter that THEY could potentially get the teachers sick.

The wealthy private schools that I know of told the families AND teachers not to travel. If they did, they were expected to report and quarantine. That was one of the criticisms of Ted Cruz last month; his kids go to one of those wealthy private schools (St. Johns in Houston), and the expectation was that the kids quarantine upon return.

[johnb]

The below article popped up on my newsfeed and thought it was interesting...The author argues that a pretty widespread movement to stop at nothing to achieve zero COVID cases ("ZeroCovid"; for a given country) has major costs -- and is best suited for a "totalitarian aim, best delivered by a totalitarian state." It's also a movement that is NOT fringe, but very mainstream with well-respected scientists and others being a part of it.

I had never heard of the site "unherd" but a quick google doesn't seem to indicate any clear bias. Seems to be British.
https://unherd.com/2021/02/inside-th...ovid-campaign/


And China is basically a surveillance state right now...

The article concludes:


In any event, thought it was thought-provoking. The key question is "what is an acceptable level/risk profile"? I would say it's when we get to "flu-like" numbers perhaps in the U.S. But it's been so ingrained as a scary thing (and it is scary, I'm not saying it's not) that I think a ~50,000 year death rate for COVID will garner much harsher restrictions than anything we've ever done with the flu. Of course, would be amazing if we make COVID eventually like a cold in this country, but will likely have to be a step ahead as far as mutations/booster shots.

Here's a paper arguing for the ZeroCovid strategy as a counterpoint:
https://www.isglobal.org/en_GB/-/-qu...e-la-pandemia-

Interesting.

Zero cases strikes me as a strawman argument; I haven't heard anyone in the US is arguing for a complete shut-down until covid occupies a storage box next to smallpox.

Acceptance of 50,000 American deaths/year is problematic. Covid isn't the flu: vaccines seem to be much more effective; sequalae and communicability seem much worse. This may allow some sort of steady-state at an acceptable risk, but at least for the time being, the risk is that we go back to the sort of exponential spread that isn't typically part of the flu.

Btw, hospital workers have a range of political backgrounds and are sick of all the restrictions, but I don't know any hospital workers who are eager to dispense with mask mandates anytime soon.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The wealthy private schools that I know of told the families AND teachers not to travel. If they did, they were expected to report and quarantine. That was one of the criticisms of Ted Cruz last month; his kids go to one of those wealthy private schools (St. Johns in Houston), and the expectation was that the kids quarantine upon return.

I know a number of private schools made this request but declared that the first week after break would be fully remote because they didn’t trust anyone to obey the rules. Also, the rules are constantly changing and have lots of carve outs so unclear how effective they are.

My kids are in an NYC public elementary school and have been hybrid. It shares a building with a small middle school. Middle schools were closed for a while so those students weren’t there. Most other elementary schools in our area have had at least one two week shut down for positive cases. We have been clean.

Middle schools returned a few weeks ago. Yesterday we got an email that there are a few potential positives in the middle school so school is closed today (a remote day for my kids) while they investigate. Waiting to hear whether we will be closed or not. We are not happy with the middle school. Most teachers have been vaccinated at least once.

[aimo]

The wealthy private schools that I know of told the families AND teachers not to travel. If they did, they were expected to report and quarantine. That was one of the criticisms of Ted Cruz last month; his kids go to one of those wealthy private schools (St. Johns in Houston), and the expectation was that the kids quarantine upon return.

Not the case here. There were families flying all over the place. This school is more interested in placating the paying parents than keeping teachers safe.

[wilson]

Not the case here. There were families flying all over the place. This school is more interested in placating the paying parents than keeping teachers safe.

I teach at a well-to-do private school and am very thankful that my school has really done a lot to keep us safe, including a vaccination drive for all of my remaining colleagues who wanted the vaccine this past week.

[tommy]

Not the case here. There were families flying all over the place. This school is more interested in placating the paying parents than keeping teachers safe.

Well plenty of private school parents paid, depending on where they live, 30-40-$50,000 this year for Zoom school, to have their kids sit in their rooms and stare at a screen all day. Not exactly what they bargained for. So at this point, the schools do need to "placate" those parents who basically gave them a giant donation for this year.

Vaccinations are available to all teachers. If they want to be safe, they can absolutely get vaccinated today. What the schools should be telling the teachers is: "we'd love you to get vaccinated and come on back to work. If you don't want to do that, sorry, but we're running a safe school here, and you don't have to work here anymore."

[Rich]

Vaccinations are available to all teachers. If they want to be safe, they can absolutely get vaccinated today. What the schools should be telling the teachers is: "we'd love you to get vaccinated and come on back to work. If you don't want to do that, sorry, but we're running a safe school here, and you don't have to work here anymore."

I'm a lawyer, but not that kind of lawyer so perhaps others can chime in on the legality of businesses and schools, public and private, preventing access to employees, staff, students, etc. without proof of a vaccine. In other words, is it legal to deny employment or, in the case of schools and universities, attendance without a vaccine on health and safety grounds? I understand that this likely a broad and complicated issue, but maybe there are broad brush responses that can be shared.