PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[duke79]

I'm glad you are optimistic. Personally, the curve is still unseen.

Imagine you are sitting at the top row of Wallace Wade (and it's a complete water tight bowl for this thought experiment).

It is 1pm and a single drop of water is added to the stadium. One minute later it is double to two drops. Two minutes later it doubles again to four drops. The amount of water added doubles every single minute. You don't really even notice anything for the first 20 minutes or so, but then you notice a large puddle. At 1:45 you notice water covering the field and maybe at the first row of seats. No big deal, plenty of time. The stadium is 93% empty. Three minutes later a 1:48 the stadium is half full. One minute later the stadium is overflowing with water and it's game over.

The problem right now is that we can't see the problem, but the virus is out there growing and growing. Once we notice it, it will be too late.

Ugh. Should I kill myself now or wait for the inevitable slow death??

[-jk]

I would question #5 - Do they mean anti-bacterial soap? If so, why since this is a virus?

I'm just an accountant but I don't like taking antibiotics unnecessarily.

Mother Jones to the rescue...

-jk

[PackMan97]

Ugh. Should I kill myself now or wait for the inevitable slow death??

Neither! Get our your pool floats and enjoy a swim!

[Bob Green]

United States is considering travel restrictions to Europe:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/polit...ope/index.html

[BLPOG]

I was thinking some more about seasonal weather and potential impact on the virus. At this point, even without longer-term data from various countries/geographies/climates for comparison, shouldn't someone have been able to run a limited experiment in a lab?

This point just seems so important in planning for the next few months. If the virus is inhibited by light or warmer temperatures, why not foot the energy bill and leave on the lights and turn up the heat? It seems to me that sort of thing could have a sizable effect in slowing the spread.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Of all the bad news, today, this seems like a blow to the gut. Buried the lead, in the CNN update stream. Don't know how to send the story link, so cut and paste?

CDC director says some coronavirus-related deaths have been found posthumously
During the House Oversight Committee discussion on the novel coronavirus response, the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said some deaths from coronavirus have been discovered posthumously.

Rep. Harley Rouda asked CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield if it’s possible that some flu patients may have been misdiagnosed and actually had coronavirus.
"The standard practice is the first thing you do is test for influenza, so if they had influenza they would be positive," Redfield said.

Rouda then asked Redfield if they are doing posthumous testing.
Redfield said there has been "a surveillance system of deaths from pneumonia, that the CDC has; it’s not in every city, every state, every hospital.”

Rouda followed up and asked, “So we could have some people in the United States dying for what appears to be influenza when in fact it could be the coronavirus?”

The doctor replied that “some cases have actually been diagnosed that way in the United States today.”
(my bold: here is the link- https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...hnk/index.html

[Kdogg]

The virus test kits might become more available but the required RNA kit supply looks be to running low. Demand from all those countries who have taken real action. Unless these lab techs know old school RNA extraction methods there is a new potential bootle neck. Son of a ...!

[ChemGod]

The virus test kits might become more available but the required RNA kit supply looks be to running low. Demand from all those countries who have taken real action. Unless these lab techs know old school RNA extraction methods there is a new potential bootle neck. Son of a ...!

Did Maniatis live in vain???

[MChambers]

Someone sent me a really great analogy today... apparently from a Wash Post article:



That, my friends, is what exponential growth is all about. Yikes!!

Linky-link

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...line_manual_26

[rocketeli]

Best estimates by experts like Dr, Fauci who testified before Congress yesterday is that it is 10 times more deadly that the flu.

(full disclosure: I am a physician)
It's really hard right now to say just how deadly "coronavirus" will turn out to be--we only have data from mostly hospitalized cases, and in the US many cases came from cruise ships and nursing homes, which if you've been on a cruise you know are essentially the same thing. These places are full of people that are very vulnerable to infection. The flu data is a mathematical model that assumes a certain number of cases will be mild or unreported in the community and extrapolates from that--the flu is much, much more common, of course and estimates of flu deaths range for this year alone from 16,000-40,000 in only the US. A better comparison would be between the mortality rate for hospitalized flu cases and "coronavirus' cases. The flu usually results in 140,000 to 180,000 hospitalizations a year and somewhere between 16000 to 61000 deaths. So the death rate from serious flu could range from about 44%, if you assume the higher death rate and the lowest hospital rate and that all serious flu made it to the hospital, to about 1% if you assume the lowest flu deaths, the highest hospitalization numbers and that only about 75-80% of these very sick people made it to a hospital. Probably the death rate is actually very similar (which makes sense since both viruses are respiratory attackers) at around 3-4% of serious cases needing hospitalization for both our traditional flu and this new flu.
Why would Dr Fauci play it up, since he knows all this? He is concerned of course, but in the government bureaucracy you will be fired or loss your influence if you are seen as being ineffectual or incompetent in a crisis, and that means doing something now, even if there was nothing that should have been done at some point, and he wants those sweet congressional dollars.
What 's interesting about this is not to suggest that people should go out of their way to catch a potentially serious respiratory illness, but that every year during "flu season" we face an equal or in fact much greater threat than "coronavirus"--the flu. And yet we cheerfully snot all over our hands, don't wash our hands, come to work sick, tolerate sick coworkers, and attend sporting events. It's human nature, of course, to be focused on novelty and become inured to long standing risks.
The media in all this has been the opposite of helpful--publishing maps showing cases, without mentioning that there are probably still more cases of leprosy in the US than this virus, or now making lists featuring cases, "recovered" cases and deaths, making it look like no one recovers when actually no on has that data, except what can be culled from high profile reports. I'm no fan of our current president, to say the least, but he was actually substantially correct in his initial take on the situation.
Again, just as at all times, hand washing, DON'T COUGH INTO YOUR HANDS, and staying home if you are sick are always good advice. If people followed these, many fewer people would die of the flu. But is it anything else but hysteria and CYA to suddenly ban audiences, when we've taken an identical risk by attending these events since our founding fathers? I don't think so.

[MChambers]

Trying to respond to administration concerns, the cruise industry will not allow persons 70 and older on cruises unless they have a doctor’s note.

Somehow, I don’t think this will resuscitate the cruise industry.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...VAFMPOAUQMCO5M

[rsvman]

This has been making the rounds. I suspect it's not valid. Anyone have better info?



-jk

-differentiation based on symptoms is not possible
-drinking water doesn't prevent respiratory virus infections; taking a sip of water every fifteen minutes isn't going to help you at all
-gargling with salt water is a symptom reliever for people with sore throats, not a preventive measure against respiratory viruses
-pulmonary fibrosis doors not develop at all in the vast majority of cases
-holding your breath for ten seconds is not a test for pulmonary fibrosis
-large droplets like the ones that spread coronavirus don't make it ten feet, most fall out of the air within 4-6 feet

I can't remember what the rest of the things were because I'm on my phone and can't see them at this time. Suffice it to say that, although some of the ideas weren't necessarily horrible (it's not a bad thing to stay hydrated, for example), essentially none of it is based on science or an understanding of virology.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Trying to respond to administration concerns, the cruise industry will not allow persons 70 and older on cruises unless they have a doctor’s note.

Somehow, I don’t think this will resuscitate the cruise industry.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...VAFMPOAUQMCO5M

There goes the target demographic

[MChambers]

Tom Boswell, in the Post, calls on MLB to cancel the rest of spring training or play without fans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...age%2Fcard-ans

He flew down to Florida Monday, but has now realized how stupid that was.

[Tripping William]

The ACC now following the NCAA for the rest of the conference tournament.

https://theacc.com/news/2020/3/11/st...ournament.aspx

[proelitedota]

Trying to respond to administration concerns, the cruise industry will not allow persons 70 and older on cruises unless they have a doctor’s note.

Somehow, I don’t think this will resuscitate the cruise industry.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...VAFMPOAUQMCO5M

Not big loss since the cruise industry is not a part of our economy and doesn't even hire Americans. We should not try to bail out the cruise industry.

[BD80]

From a new study out of Germany:

"The findings confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing, he said. They also challenge the idea that contact with contaminated surfaces is a primary means of spread, Osterholm said.

"Don't forget about hand washing, but at the same time we've got to get people to understand that if you don't want to get infected, you can't be in crowds," he said. "Social distancing is the most effective tool we have right now.""

Six-foot rule, people.

So wearing a mask can be a deterrent?

Also, Italy’s population skews older, so more deaths per case even with a similar median age of death.

Just because Italians a more amorous later in life, they don't deserve a plague!

[Stray Gator]

Not big loss since the cruise industry is not a part of our economy and doesn't even hire Americans. We should not try to bail out the cruise industry.

The Cruise Director on our Viking River Cruise last summer was an American; and there are other Americans employed by the cruise industry, both in this country and abroad. Of course, many Americans who work for the numerous travel agencies around the USA that book these cruises will also be adversely affected by massive cancellations. In any event, I think the thousands of crew members and staff on cruise lines whose livelihoods are threatened, as well as their family members who will suffer economically as a consequence, are also deserving of sympathy, regardless of their nationalities.

[OldPhiKap]

Carnival Corporation (CCL) is publicly-traded on the NYSE. It is headquarters are in Miami and London.

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/corporate-information

Though their ships are often registered in other countries, and many on-ship employees are not American, they do employ Americans and impact our economy.

Not advocating for any action, but just putting some facts out there.

[Acymetric]

I mean, I don't see any reason to bail out cruise lines specifically​, but there are a lot of businesses and entire business sectors that are going to need some kind of support to get back on their feet (if they haven't already completely collapsed) sometime in the next 6-12 months.