PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[rsvman]

Thomas Pueyo imo is by far the smartest, most thorough and objective covid related data analyst out there. He looks at data country by country, county by county and takes into account every detail that he can get his hands on. Anyway he just published his "Good news about coronovirus." Note he is not an optimist (right now he is alarmed by a resurgence in Europe and he jokingly normally calls himself the 'messenger of doom') but he just thought he put out the most positive spin for once and how it could be worse.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/statu...186956288?s=20

Tomas Pueyo@tomaspueyo
"Good" cornona news:
1. Only 0.5%-1% of those who catch it die. Imagine if it was 4-5%.
2. Kids barely die. Imagine if 15% of infected kids died, like with older ppl.
3. Kids don't seem to spread the virus much, even if they do get infected and shed the virus. If they were much more contagious, it would be much harder to stop.
4. Around half of ppl don't even know they've been infected (although they might have life-long consequences)·
5. There are very few infections through surfaces. Could you imagine what our lives would look like if everything you touched could infect you?
6. Planes don't seem to spread it much. Imagine if they were all superspreader events.·
7. Most contagions are either within the family or in superspreader events. That narrows down the focus of the type of event we must focus on.·
8. We have a very good grasp of what type of environment spreads the virus: indoors, with little air circulation, with lots of people talking, singing and interacting for a long period of time. That's very specific. It's easy to spot and address.·
9. Heterogeneity means herd immunity might be reached before the ~60% threshold (although it's unclear)·
10. There are dirt cheap ways to fight the virus. One of them is masking. If everybody used them properly and we avoided the worst types of events, we would stop the epidemic.·
11. We are finding treatments, and some are dirt cheap, such as dexamethasone and proning. It looks like Vitamin D can help prevent it. Cost and risk of taking it: Nearly zero·
12. We're moving towards vaccines at warp speed, unlike anything humankind has ever done. Hopefully, some will pass Phase 3 in the coming months, and in 2021 we will have one widely available.·
13. The world has been able to get together to solve a pandemic. Never before have so many people from around the world collaborated to fight such a common threat so fast. We are closer to each other.
14. This had already happened one century ago. We had plenty of records to learn from (even if we didn't learn enough)
15. Skies cleaned up. Emissions dropped. We showed slowing down global warming is possible.·
16. Governments and their ineptitude were exposed.
17. The very first countries to be exposed were also the best at managing it, showing a path to the rest of countries. Especially true of South Korea and Taiwan, but also Vietnam, Hong Kong, and others·
18. Some Western countries learned really fast. Eg, New Zealand, Iceland and Germany have done a great job.
19. We've accelerated the move to online economies by decades. This will reduce global inequality (although it might increase it in some countries)·
20. New testing methods such as quick saliva tests could mean we can test massively and quickly identify who is contagious and only isolate those.·
21. The Bradykinin hypothesis *sounds* reasonable to explain the illness. I have not seen yet a peer review that proves it wrong. If it's true, we'd have a path for good treatments quickly.
What else?

I'm not entirely sure that we have proven point number three just yet.

[cspan37421]

I'm not entirely sure that we have proven point number three just yet.

Or #1. There have been 3.9 million closed cases in the USA, according to data aggregated by Worldometers. The death rate in the USA is 5% thus far.

Cases which had an outcome:
3,723,261 (95%) Recovered / Discharged
193,206 (5%) Deaths

That does represent a substantial decline from earlier in the pandemic. To come down further, it will have to be from active cases resolving to recovery or discharge at a greater than 95% rate.

[CDu]

Or #1. There have been 3.9 million closed cases in the USA, according to data aggregated by Worldometers. The death rate in the USA is 5% thus far.

Cases which had an outcome:
3,723,261 (95%) Recovered / Discharged
193,206 (5%) Deaths

That does represent a substantial decline from earlier in the pandemic. To come down further, it will have to be from active cases resolving to recovery or discharge at a greater than 95% rate.

To be fair, I suspect a lot more than 3.9 million cases have resolved.

[Furniture]

Thomas Pueyo imo is by far the smartest, most thorough and objective covid related data analyst out there. He looks at data country by country, county by county and takes into account every detail that he can get his hands on. Anyway he just published his "Good news about coronovirus." Note he is not an optimist (right now he is alarmed by a resurgence in Europe and he jokingly normally calls himself the 'messenger of doom') but he just thought he put out the most positive spin for once and how it could be worse.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/statu...186956288?s=20

Tomas Pueyo@tomaspueyo
"Good" cornona news:
1. Only 0.5%-1% of those who catch it die. Imagine if it was 4-5%.
2. Kids barely die. Imagine if 15% of infected kids died, like with older ppl.
3. Kids don't seem to spread the virus much, even if they do get infected and shed the virus. If they were much more contagious, it would be much harder to stop.
4. Around half of ppl don't even know they've been infected (although they might have life-long consequences)·
5. There are very few infections through surfaces. Could you imagine what our lives would look like if everything you touched could infect you?
6. Planes don't seem to spread it much. Imagine if they were all superspreader events.·
7. Most contagions are either within the family or in superspreader events. That narrows down the focus of the type of event we must focus on.·
8. We have a very good grasp of what type of environment spreads the virus: indoors, with little air circulation, with lots of people talking, singing and interacting for a long period of time. That's very specific. It's easy to spot and address.·
9. Heterogeneity means herd immunity might be reached before the ~60% threshold (although it's unclear)·
10. There are dirt cheap ways to fight the virus. One of them is masking. If everybody used them properly and we avoided the worst types of events, we would stop the epidemic.·
11. We are finding treatments, and some are dirt cheap, such as dexamethasone and proning. It looks like Vitamin D can help prevent it. Cost and risk of taking it: Nearly zero·
12. We're moving towards vaccines at warp speed, unlike anything humankind has ever done. Hopefully, some will pass Phase 3 in the coming months, and in 2021 we will have one widely available.·
13. The world has been able to get together to solve a pandemic. Never before have so many people from around the world collaborated to fight such a common threat so fast. We are closer to each other.
14. This had already happened one century ago. We had plenty of records to learn from (even if we didn't learn enough)
15. Skies cleaned up. Emissions dropped. We showed slowing down global warming is possible.·
16. Governments and their ineptitude were exposed.
17. The very first countries to be exposed were also the best at managing it, showing a path to the rest of countries. Especially true of South Korea and Taiwan, but also Vietnam, Hong Kong, and others·
18. Some Western countries learned really fast. Eg, New Zealand, Iceland and Germany have done a great job.
19. We've accelerated the move to online economies by decades. This will reduce global inequality (although it might increase it in some countries)·
20. New testing methods such as quick saliva tests could mean we can test massively and quickly identify who is contagious and only isolate those.·
21. The Bradykinin hypothesis *sounds* reasonable to explain the illness. I have not seen yet a peer review that proves it wrong. If it's true, we'd have a path for good treatments quickly.
What else?

Super, super interesting. Thanks. (Can’t spread sporks).

[Bluedog]

Or #1. There have been 3.9 million closed cases in the USA, according to data aggregated by Worldometers. The death rate in the USA is 5% thus far.

Cases which had an outcome:
3,723,261 (95%) Recovered / Discharged
193,206 (5%) Deaths

That does represent a substantial decline from earlier in the pandemic. To come down further, it will have to be from active cases resolving to recovery or discharge at a greater than 95% rate.

To be fair, I suspect a lot more than 3.9 million cases have resolved.

Yep I'd be willing to wager a significant sum that many many more than 4 million people in the US have had COViD. Here's the WHO estimate on the death rate:

"Serological testing of a representative random sample of the population to detect evidence of exposure to a pathogen is an important method to estimate the true number of infected individuals [7,8,9]. Many such serological surveys are currently being undertaken worldwide [10], and some have thus far suggested substantial under-ascertainment of cases, with estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1% [10-12]."
https://www.who.int/news-room/commen...-from-covid-19

[YmoBeThere]

#8 isn't exactly true. In particular, the restaurant example from China published in April comes to mind. Not a huge space with poor air conditioning flows. The people were spaced such that it created an optimal route for the infected person to spread the virus.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-1749_article

[luvdahops]

Yep I'd be willing to wager a significant sum that many many more than 4 million people in the US have had COViD. Here's the WHO estimate on the death rate:

"Serological testing of a representative random sample of the population to detect evidence of exposure to a pathogen is an important method to estimate the true number of infected individuals [7,8,9]. Many such serological surveys are currently being undertaken worldwide [10], and some have thus far suggested substantial under-ascertainment of cases, with estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1% [10-12]."
https://www.who.int/news-room/commen...-from-covid-19

I work with a lot of health insurance companies, and the 0.5-1% IFR range is consistent with their current actuarial view

[sagegrouse]

Yep I'd be willing to wager a significant sum that many many more than 4 million people in the US have had COViD. Here's the WHO estimate on the death rate:

"Serological testing of a representative random sample of the population to detect evidence of exposure to a pathogen is an important method to estimate the true number of infected individuals [7,8,9]. Many such serological surveys are currently being undertaken worldwide [10], and some have thus far suggested substantial under-ascertainment of cases, with estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1% [10-12]."
https://www.who.int/news-room/commen...-from-covid-19

I work with a lot of health insurance companies, and the 0.5-1% IFR range is consistent with their current actuarial view

Yet the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. (Worldometers) is 6.46 million, or 1.95 percent of the U.S. population (331.00 million). And, it's assumed, COVID cases number are under-reported especially during the April surge.

I am not disagreeing with anything either of you said, but just looking for help in understanding the numbers.

[luvdahops]

Yet the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. (Worldometers) is 6.46 million, or 1.95 percent of the U.S. population (331.00 million). And, it's assumed, COVID cases number are under-reported especially during the April surge.

I am not disagreeing with anything either of you said, but just looking for help in understanding the numbers.

It's the same basic point - the reported case numbers, whether Worldometers, Hopkins or whomever, appear to substantially understate the actual exposure to COVID-19 among the population, based on a variety of serological studies that have been done. And that is consistent with the notion that there have been a number of cases that were sufficiently mild, quickly "resolved" and/or asymptomatic among individuals that never sought testing.

[sagegrouse]

It's the same basic point - the reported case numbers, whether Worldometers, Hopkins or whomever, appear to substantially understate the actual exposure to COVID-19 among the population, based on a variety of serological studies that have been done. And that is consistent with the notion that there have been a number of cases that were sufficiently mild, quickly "resolved" and/or asymptomatic among individuals that never sought testing.

Yes, but the reported infection rate of 1.95 percent in the U.S. is above the IFR rate you mentioned. If there are unreported cases, shouldn't the reported percent of population with COVID be lower?

[sagegrouse]

I was watching country numbers with great care 3-4 months ago, particularly, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany and Belgium. I just went and looked at new cases and deaths for the last few weeks and months by country (Worldometers -- click on country name and there are a host of useful charts -- try "seven-day average") There has been a case rebound in most European countries, although deaths have not rebounded.

In Spain, the number of new cases is back up to 80 percent of the number in the peak last spring. In France, the number of new cases is 50 percent GREATER than the peak in the spring. In both cases, however, the rate of new deaths is far lower -- in Spain only four percent of the spring peak; in France, only two percent.

The other European countries -- Italy, Germany, UK and Belgium -- have similar shapes, but the rebounds have been far lower than in France and Spain.

Sweden is in another universe completely. While the good news is that deaths are now running low, the new case pattern is bizarrely different from the aforementioned countries. New cases continued to grow steadily through the spring and with a big bulge in June after the other countries were showing few new cases. Sweden has retreated to a level of about 20 percent of peak cases. Sweden's peak of deaths, however, was April and is reporting few new deaths over the past few months.

[freshmanjs]

Yes, but the reported infection rate of 1.95 percent in the U.S. is above the IFR rate you mentioned. If there are unreported cases, shouldn't the reported percent of population with COVID be lower?

IFR is infection fatality rate. Deaths per infected person. That is a different thing from the % of the population infected, which is the 1.95% number.

[sagegrouse]

Here's the report for the week just ended:

Six new cases among the students out of over 6,000 tests. Two were asymptomatic. Five of the six students are housed off-campus. Eight students were cleared to return to campus.

Summary:

6,251 tests were administered to asymptomatic students via the surveillance testing program; there were two positive results, one student on-campus and one student off-campus. Both individuals are now in isolation.

Four students who live off-campus reported symptoms and were tested; all were positive and are now in isolation.

Eight students who had previously tested positive were cleared to return to campus.

289 tests were administered to faculty/staff; there were no positive results. Five staff/faculty who had been in isolation were cleared to return to normal activities.

Duke has administered 23,880 tests to students, faculty and staff since August 2 and has recorded 52 positive results; 44 of those individuals have been cleared to return to normal activity.

Duke has administered 23,880 tests to students, faculty and staff since August 2 and has recorded 52 positive results; 44 of those individuals have been cleared to return to normal activity.

Only eight persons have tested positive and NOT been cleared to return. We are losing badly to other universities, which have a thousand or more cases just among the students.

[freshmanjs]

Here's the report for the week just ended:

Six new cases among the students out of over 6,000 tests. Two were asymptomatic. Five of the six students are housed off-campus. Eight students were cleared to return to campus.





Only eight persons have tested positive and NOT been cleared to return. We are losing badly to other universities, which have a thousand or more cases just among the students.

Duke also separately announced they are investigating 29 disciplinary cases for repeated and flagrant violations of the duke compact.

[Skydog]

Here's the report for the week just ended:

Six new cases among the students out of over 6,000 tests. Two were asymptomatic. Five of the six students are housed off-campus. Eight students were cleared to return to campus.





Only eight persons have tested positive and NOT been cleared to return. We are losing badly to other universities, which have a thousand or more cases just among the students.

This is so impressive to me. Outstanding when you think about it. So many Duke people must have done sooo much work behind the scenes to accomplish this. Plus credit to the students.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Here's the report for the week just ended:

Six new cases among the students out of over 6,000 tests. Two were asymptomatic. Five of the six students are housed off-campus. Eight students were cleared to return to campus.





Only eight persons have tested positive and NOT been cleared to return. We are losing badly to other universities, which have a thousand or more cases just among the students.

I think it's more like golf scoring...

[budwom]

Kids back to school here today, the science experiment begins.

[OldPhiKap]

Kids back to school here today, the science experiment begins.

Good luck.

FWIW it is looking like school districts are doing a much better job than universities of containing this. Our local school system (SonPK is in high school) has done very well so far, and every week they post the number of positive test results from each school for both students and staff. I hope that result continues.

[budwom]

Good luck.

FWIW it is looking like school districts are doing a much better job than universities of containing this. Our local school system (SonPK is in high school) has done very well so far, and every week they post the number of positive test results from each school for both students and staff. I hope that result continues.

People are definitely taking it seriously, and I suspect that's well more than half the battle. Tough times for parents juggling schedules...kids here only in school two days/week, split into two groups.

[OldPhiKap]

People are definitely taking it seriously, and I suspect that's well more than half the battle. Tough times for parents juggling schedules...kids here only in school two days/week, split into two groups.

We have the same split, and an option to just go all on-line. It cut my son’s class sizes by about 60%, which helps with the distancing.

And, kids here are wearing masks. I recognize not all school districts are so lucky.

Our community continues to see a decline in cases too so it does not appear that there has been wide spread through the kids to homes. At least as we start week five of school.