PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[bundabergdevil]

I'm no virologist, but I have read articles that say it is very plausible that the coronavirus becomes less deadly. That happened with the 1918 influenza. Here's one such article:

https://undark.org/2020/11/11/corona...e-less-deadly/

A more transmissible, less deadly variant should be able to outcompete the other variants, in theory. After all, the virus isn't interesting in killing us, because then it can't replicate in our bodies and distribute itself through the population.

The 1918 flu is still around - or rather descendants of that H1N1 virus.

[MChambers]

The 1918 flu is still around - or rather descendants of that H1N1 virus.

But far less deadly. That's all I was trying to say.

[Skydog]

I'm no virologist, but I have read articles that say it is very plausible that the coronavirus becomes less deadly. That happened with the 1918 influenza. Here's one such article:

https://undark.org/2020/11/11/corona...e-less-deadly/

A more transmissible, less deadly variant should be able to outcompete the other variants, in theory. After all, the virus isn't interesting in killing us, because then it can't replicate in our bodies and distribute itself through the population.

Thanks - good point about the 1918 flu.

[MChambers]

Good update by YLE on omicron: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...-update-nov-27

Everything is still very preliminary, and there's some bad news but also good news, including this:

We’re seeing a lot of cases but not a lot of severe disease. Yesterday, Dr. Rudo Mathivha, head of the ICU at an Omicron epicenter hospital said that among their patients:

“About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated”.

This is incredibly encouraging news. This may be a sign that our vaccines continue to protect against severe disease and death. I cannot stress enough, though, that this is preliminary evidence. We need to know a few more things:

Is this because of a small sample size? Maybe Omicron just hasn’t spread enough in South Africa to see hospitalizations rise.

Is this because of lag time? Population-level hospitalization trends lag cases trends by 3-4 weeks.

Is this because of the population? Populations will respond differently to infections. What may be happening in South Africa may not be representative of what will happen elsewhere.

[CameronDuke]

If a company was scheduled to begin phasing back into a return to office plan beginning January 2nd, 2022, given the omicron variant spreading rapidly worldwide, what are the chances that date gets pushed back into later 2022?

[Furniture]

If a company was scheduled to begin phasing back into a return to office plan beginning January 2nd, 2022, given the omicron variant spreading rapidly worldwide, what are the chances that date gets pushed back into later 2022?

Too early to tell but if we get a wave like Delta for sure. Things can change quickly.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Kids got their second shots yesterday - a tiny bit of arm soreness but nothing else - ready to conquer the world. I got my booster yesterday (Pfizer) and my arm is still a bit sore and I am in more of a haze than usual - basically the same response I had to my second shot.

[rsvman]

If a company was scheduled to begin phasing back into a return to office plan beginning January 2nd, 2022, given the omicron variant spreading rapidly worldwide, what are the chances that date gets pushed back into later 2022?

Might be that Omicron, if it hits, might hit a few weeks later than that. So worst-case is you ramp back up in January only to have to shut it all down again my late Jan or early Feb.

[ArkieDukie]

I learned over the weekend that the nurse practitioner that was my older brother’s health care provider is anti-vax - so much so that she quit her job rather than getting vaccinated. She’s also the preferred health care provider for my younger brother’s entire unvaccinated family. Explains a lot. As a complicating factor, she’s also my step-niece. I have lost a great deal of respect for her. She’s planning to start her own practice.

As for omicron, I’m really anxious to talk with my colleague about this one. I’m trying to remember if this was one of the variants he studied as a part of his clinical trial. (He isolated antibodies produced by vaccinated individuals and tested them against various Covid strains.) If they didn’t look already, I bet it is in the works.

Count me in the group who has gotten a booster (Pfizer). It made me hella tired.

[YmoBeThere]

She’s planning to start her own practice.

That info would be good for her medical malpractice insurer to know.

[budwom]

Good article in NY Times today about the ramifications of travel bans. Primary takeaways for me were: 1) the bans don't work, they're generally declared too late (fairly obvious), and more importantly 2) Once there are travel bans, local economies tend to tank (tourism certainly does) so many countries have learned the benefit of NOT reporting new variant outbreaks lest they be shunned.

[MChambers]

Your Local Epidemiologist is having a busy Thanksgiving weekend. Here’s her latest, on vaccines, the immune response, and Omicron. Bottom line: get your boosters!

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...specially-with

[Bluedog]

Good article in NY Times today about the ramifications of travel bans. Primary takeaways for me were: 1) the bans don't work, they're generally declared too late (fairly obvious), and more importantly 2) Once there are travel bans, local economies tend to tank (tourism certainly does) so many countries have learned the benefit of NOT reporting new variant outbreaks lest they be shunned.

The bans also don't work because they have exceptions for citizens. It's not like people who are in South Africa but happen to be US citizens are less likely to get omicron than South Africans are. Even if they didn't have that exception, it still seems like they wouldn't work much in the long run anyways but with them in place, it's kinda a joke...(and I understand why the exceptions are in place but then one would think the futility of the restriction would then become clear).

[Skydog]

The question isn’t whether travel bans keep out a virus - obviously they don’t. The question is how much they delay the spread and how much that delay is worth? Once those are answered the question is whether those delay benefits outweigh the costs (economic, disincentivizing transparency, etc.).

Sadly on top of that are political pressures - citizens love politicians who are “protecting them against ‘others’ ” especially when it doesn’t involve any action on their own.

[ArkieDukie]

The bans also don't work because they have exceptions for citizens. It's not like people who are in South Africa but happen to be US citizens are less likely to get omicron than South Africans are. Even if they didn't have that exception, it still seems like they wouldn't work much in the long run anyways but with them in place, it's kinda a joke...(and I understand why the exceptions are in place but then one would think the futility of the restriction would then become clear).

Agreed. The big mistake is not quarantining the US citizens upon their return, at least until there is sufficient time to show they aren’t already infected.

[mph]

I’m sitting here waiting 15 minutes after just getting my Moderna booster. It’s been 3 months since I had a mild breakthrough infection and 5 months since my 2nd Pfizer shot. I have no idea why, but the Moderna injection was much more painful than either of the first 2 shots. Curious if anyone else had a similar experience.

[budwom]

The question isn’t whether travel bans keep out a virus - obviously they don’t. The question is how much they delay the spread and how much that delay is worth? Once those are answered the question is whether those delay benefits outweigh the costs (economic, disincentivizing transparency, etc.).

Sadly on top of that are political pressures - citizens love politicians who are “protecting them against ‘others’ ” especially when it doesn’t involve any action on their own.

So many things about them are just plain illogical, mainly for show. For example I know a lot of Canadians who've been in the U.S. this year because they can fly in...but they aren't allowed to drive in. Are automobile drivers more contagious than airline passengers?

[sagegrouse]

The question isn’t whether travel bans keep out a virus - obviously they don’t. The question is how much they delay the spread and how much that delay is worth? Once those are answered the question is whether those delay benefits outweigh the costs (economic, disincentivizing transparency, etc.).

Sadly on top of that are political pressures - citizens love politicians who are “protecting them against ‘others’ ” especially when it doesn’t involve any action on their own.

Once a few countries announce travel bans -- the pressure on other advanced countries is much higher.

[YmoBeThere]

The question isn’t whether travel bans keep out a virus - obviously they don’t. The question is how much they delay the spread and how much that delay is worth? Once those are answered the question is whether those delay benefits outweigh the costs (economic, disincentivizing transparency, etc.).

If only we had an example???

[Bluedog]

I’m sitting here waiting 15 minutes after just getting my Moderna booster. It’s been 3 months since I had a mild breakthrough infection and 5 months since my 2nd Pfizer shot. I have no idea why, but the Moderna injection was much more painful than either of the first 2 shots. Curious if anyone else had a similar experience.

I think the actual injection pain is simply based on the particular person/needle/placement/randomness. and not because of the brand of the vaccine. But I could be wrong. Injection site pain AFTER the shot could be impacted by the specific vaccine given. Good luck on the aftermath of your booster - hope it's pretty mild! I'm doing opposite of you, with MMP.