PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[mph]

I have read in several places, so it may actually be true, that the issue in South Africa is not a lack of vaccine doses but a lack of trust in the local medical system by the people there. If it is true, that seems like a difficult problem for anyone but the South Africans to solve.

Howard

Yes. There are strong arguments against the South Africa travel ban but lack of access to the vaccine is not one of them.

South Africa actually asked Pfizer and J&J to stop sending vaccine doses because they weren’t using the doses they already had.

[Bluedog]

It's pretty crazy now seeing New Hampshire top the list of case counts per capita now @70 per 100,000...I honestly didn't think we'd be at this point.

Seems like the CDC is about to enact stricter rules to come back even for vaccinated travelers for international travel. Bummer for me potentially as finally booked a trip in December (to a Caribbean island with low case counts...). We shall see where they land though.

I'm bummed. I honestly thought we'd be on the upswing, but seems like it's just bad news all around just as we think we're turning a corner potentially. I thought vaccines would be our saviour (and they are for hospitalization and death largely), but this thing is a tough tough enemy...The end of the pandemic and beginning of the endemic timing is totally unclear to me, and I don't see a clear turning point or how we ever overcome this. I guess it's the "new normal."

[budwom]

It's pretty crazy now seeing New Hampshire top the list of case counts per capita now @70 per 100,000...I honestly didn't think we'd be at this point.

Seems like the CDC is about to enact stricter rules to come back even for vaccinated travelers for international travel. Bummer for me potentially as finally booked a trip in December (to a Caribbean island with low case counts...). We shall see where they land though.

I'm bummed. I honestly thought we'd be on the upswing, but seems like it's just bad news all around just as we think we're turning a corner potentially. I thought vaccines would be our saviour (and they are for hospitalization and death largely), but this thing is a tough tough enemy...The end of the pandemic and beginning of the endemic timing is totally unclear to me, and I don't see a clear turning point or how we ever overcome this. I guess it's the "new normal."

The CDC website has Vermont at the top spot today...this situation in northern New England has been building for the past month. The Atlantic had a good article on it...essentially the analysis seems to be that by having such great mask and shutdown compliance early in the outbreak, few people were getting exposed to the virus. And despite VT having a very high vaccination rate, the health commissioner notes that we still have a lot of unvacccinated people who are the ones filling up the hospitals and ICUs to unsettling levels.

Given the holidays, it's assumed here that the next month will be fairly ugly...taking solace in the latest factoid they threw at us, which is that if you are not vaccinated, your chances of hospitalization are 13x higher than vaccinated folks.

[Bluedog]

The CDC website has Vermont at the top spot today...

I went by NY Times tracker. I assume they have slightly different methodologies although the CDC certainly must be the source for the NY Times. Most people don't confidently know the difference between NH and VT on a map anyways although that's more of an indictment of citizens' geography skills.

Thanks for your "on the ground" perspective of the area.

[Stray Gator]

. . . Seems like the CDC is about to enact stricter rules to come back even for vaccinated travelers for international travel. Bummer for me potentially as finally booked a trip in December (to a Caribbean island with low case counts...). We shall see where they land though.

I'm bummed. I honestly thought we'd be on the upswing, but seems like it's just bad news all around just as we think we're turning a corner potentially. . . .

We had optimistically planned a two-week Christmas holiday trip with the family to Vienna, Brussels, and London, from Dec. 21 to Jan. 3., with all flights, trains, and hotels booked several months ago. But we reluctantly concluded a week before Thanksgiving that, even though we're all fully vaxxed and boosted, the continuing pandemic travel restrictions would spoil the trip; and we were especially fearful that the re-entry requirements posed a risk that one or more of us might test positive before our return flight to the USA and be stranded abroad in quarantine for 10-14 days.

Of course, we're disappointed, but less so now that the emergence of this new Omicron variant has prompted many countries in Europe to cancel their Christmas markets and impose even more severe restrictions. On the positive side, though, we elected to procure future travel vouchers instead of refunds, and will try once again to make the journey in December 2022. And my wife and I are still hopeful that we'll be able to proceed with our traditional month-long trip to Europe from mid-May to mid-June, which we've missed now for two years due to the pandemic. For those of us in the autumn of our years, these postponements are especially frustrating because we are aware that each passing opportunity may be our last.

[Bluedog]

We had optimistically planned a two-week Christmas holiday trip with the family to Vienna, Brussels, and London, from Dec. 21 to Jan. 3., with all flights, trains, and hotels booked several months ago. But we reluctantly concluded a week before Thanksgiving that, even though we're all fully vaxxed and boosted, the continuing pandemic travel restrictions would spoil the trip; and we were especially fearful that the re-entry requirements posed a risk that one or more of us might test positive before our return flight to the USA and be stranded abroad in quarantine for 10-14 days.

Of course, we're disappointed, but less so now that the emergence of this new Omicron variant has prompted many countries in Europe to cancel their Christmas markets and impose even more severe restrictions. On the positive side, though, we elected to procure future travel vouchers instead of refunds, and will try once again to make the journey in December 2022. And my wife and I are still hopeful that we'll be able to proceed with our traditional month-long trip to Europe from mid-May to mid-June, which we've missed now for two years due to the pandemic. For those of us in the autumn of our years, these postponements are especially frustrating because we are aware that each passing opportunity may be our last.

Yep, sorry to hear that. I would too personally avoid Europe at the moment in all likelihood, but I am comfortable (for now) going to the Caribbean with a rented house and just going to the beach/hanging outside. A "beach vacation" is a different beast/risk level than what I like to do in Europe which is more visit museums/sites/restaurants/etc. At least, that's my opinion and how I typically travel. I don't foresee restrictions in the Caribbean really impacting what we'd do anyways whereas it certainly could in Europe. I will be boosted by then and my 5-year old is getting second dose today but the potential change to get tested one day out (and during peak travel season where it's probably going to be harder to come by) will undoubtedly add some stress/anxiety.

We are hoping to go to Europe next spring as well, but haven't booked anything and are playing it by ear...

[budwom]

I went by NY Times tracker. I assume they have slightly different methodologies although the CDC certainly must be the source for the NY Times. Most people don't confidently know the difference between NH and VT on a map anyways although that's more of an indictment of citizens' geography skills.

Thanks for your "on the ground" perspective of the area.

very true, NH is the one that's upside down.. We are upright. Bot of us are really hurting with Covid right now

Like Mr. Gator, we had envisioned a Yerpeen trip in 2022 but concluded months ago it ain't gonna happen...it's going to be a while...

[Phredd3]

It's pretty crazy now seeing New Hampshire top the list of case counts per capita now @70 per 100,000...I honestly didn't think we'd be at this point.

FWIW, much of Europe is mired in 100s of cases per 100,000. (NYT link - paywalled, I think.) According to the graphs posted there, The Netherlands and Austria are approaching 200% of their previous peaks, and Germany has exceeded the 200% mark. The good news is that those are case rates, and the death rates are not increasing as dramatically. I would say it suggests that vaccines are still at least somewhat effective against Omicron, although definitive data isn't really available on that, yet. (Or if it is, I haven't seen it.)

All-in-all, I think we can just expect that this is how the world is, now. Variants will keep coming, and we're likely going to have to deal with them annually.

[aimo]

So we know that South Africa has a very low vaccination rate and that most of these are unvaccinated cases.

Any idea on how many of the European cases are amongst the unvaccinated?

[Bluedog]

So we know that South Africa has a very low vaccination rate and that most of these are unvaccinated cases.

Any idea on how many of the European cases are amongst the unvaccinated?

Not sure I've seen that data but countries like Denmark which is among the most vaccinated in the world (80% fully vaccinated) are having their highest case counts ever (but I think deaths are still below peak a bit). Same with UK/Germany. Interestingly, Sweden which came under fire for its lax attitude/no restrictions/masks, seems to be among the lowest in Europe and substantially lower at the moment than its Scandanavian neighbors. Just shows this thing goes in waves but unfortunately looks like vaccination rate isn't as correlated as what we saw in the US with the early Delta surge and no area/country is immune...(although vaccines still seem to be doing pretty well against hospitalization/death in most areas).

The NY Times does show the vaccinated/unvaccinated positive likelihood for the US, but don't see it for other nations.

[camion]

So we know that South Africa has a very low vaccination rate and that most of these are unvaccinated cases.

Any idea on how many of the European cases are amongst the unvaccinated?

On NPR this morning it was also mentioned that South Africa has a very high HIV rate which leads to there being a lot of immune compromised people. Since immune compromised individuals are good places for the virus to hang out and mutate it isn't surprising that new variants would appear there.

[cato]

Not sure I've seen that data but countries like Denmark which is among the most vaccinated in the world (80% fully vaccinated) are having their highest case counts ever (but I think deaths are still below peak a bit). Same with UK/Germany. Interestingly, Sweden which came under fire for its lax attitude/no restrictions/masks, seems to be among the lowest in Europe and substantially lower at the moment than its Scandanavian neighbors. Just shows this thing goes in waves but unfortunately looks like vaccination rate isn't as correlated as what we saw in the US with the early Delta surge and no area/country is immune...(although vaccines still seem to be doing pretty well against hospitalization/death in most areas).

The NY Times does show the vaccinated/unvaccinated positive likelihood for the US, but don't see it for other nations.

Have you seen any reporting on what vaccines are most prevalent in places like Denmark?

[Phredd3]

So we know that South Africa has a very low vaccination rate and that most of these are unvaccinated cases.

Any idea on how many of the European cases are amongst the unvaccinated?

No idea what a numerical figure might be, but the Times article says:

Even though cases have risen throughout the continent, it’s so far only in poorly vaccinated countries that deaths have reached the levels that followed similar surges last winter.

Most of this is actually Delta, though, not Omicron.

[Bluedog]

Have you seen any reporting on what vaccines are most prevalent in places like Denmark?

Yes, Pfizer. Denmark actually removed J&J and AstraZeneca from being authorized back in April.

Other countries in Europe have a larger AstraZeneca presence admittedly...Moderna is pretty low most places in the EU is my understanding, with certain countries not recommending it/restricting it for younger males as a result of higher myocarditis risk. Moderna didn't have as large of deals with the EU relatively speaking compared to the U.S. Apparently, in Germany, many view Moderna as inferior as they prefer the Germany-produced BioNTech/Pfizer one...I guess there's some national pride there/trust more in German scientists.

[cato]

Yes, Pfizer. Denmark actually removed J&J and AstraZeneca from being authorized back in April.

Other countries in Europe have a larger AstraZeneca presence admittedly...Moderna is pretty low most places in the EU is my understanding, with certain countries not recommending it/restricting it for younger males as a result of higher myocarditis risk. Moderna didn't have as large of deals with the EU relatively speaking compared to the U.S. Apparently, in Germany, many view Moderna as inferior as they prefer the Germany-produced BioNTech/Pfizer one...I guess there's some national pride there/trust more in German scientists.

Thanks. Given the timing of this uptick in Denmark and what we know about waning immunity, I wonder whether waves are as independent of vaccination rates as they sometimes appear to be or if the correlation is strong, but tied to more specific details about vaccination (I.e., which vaccine, in which sequence and when)?

I would not be surprised if infection rates are lowest where the concentration of fully vaccinated people is highest. And by fully vaccinated, I mean boosted, where timing indicates boosters improve immunity.

[MChambers]

Interesting update from YLE on omicron. It's looking like it is extremely transmissible; no word on virulence yet.

"Omicron is in the United States and we’re not surprised. As more epidemiological data accrues, transmissibility of Omicron is not looking good. Stay vigilant and do your part to reduce infection and spread."

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...n-update-dec-2

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Case numbers in North Carolina have shot up almost over night, and there are no footnotes to the data indicating there was a reporting issue or correction that would have impacted the trend. Hospitalizations increasing rapidly, too. This feels ominous.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard

[Lord Ash]

Well, we've been getting several "covid case" letters at my small school every day since Thanksgiving. Blech.

[budwom]

VT hit an all time high today, it's not abating anytime soon. Still too many unvaxxed people out there.

[MChambers]

Case numbers in North Carolina have shot up almost over night, and there are no footnotes to the data indicating there was a reporting issue or correction that would have impacted the trend. Hospitalizations increasing rapidly, too. This feels ominous.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard

I think the Thanksgiving holiday could have affected the data.