MBB: Duke 89, Miami 59 Post-Game Thread

[Lurkingdukedog]

My thoughts:
- Jordan Goldwire has REALLY improved as a player. He's still not a great shooter, but he's improved his scoring ability enough to be respectable on that end.

There was that sequence in the first half when Miami was packed in their zone and we were passing the ball around the perimeter. At one point fairly deep into the shot clock, the ball ended up in Jordan's hands a little deeper than foul-line extended on the right. A long 2 and he buried it. Very nice to see.

[mkirsh]

Nice win against an overmatched opponent. With Lykes not at full strength and going against Tre Jones, Miami just doesn't have enough to compete with us. Especially when we are hitting 3s like we were. Fun win.

My thoughts:
- Jordan Goldwire has REALLY improved as a player. He's still not a great shooter, but he's improved his scoring ability enough to be respectable on that end. But he has also gotten much better DEFensively. Last year, Goldwire was a gimmick player who was good at pressing and overplaying in full-court defense. But he was a liability in the half court on both ends of the floor, and as such played sparingly. But this year he has just been so solid. His steal rate is up, his shooting percentages are up, while his turnover rate and foul rate are both down. He deserves a ton of credit for establishing himself as a legitimate ACC player.
- Similarly, Tre Jones has managed to improve his offense and increase his offensive responsibility from last year. That's a hard combo to achieve. But not only that, he has done so without it hurting his defense. He and Goldwire are such pests all over the court. I was skeptical that the duo could work as a regular pairing because of the shooting limitations, but both have made major strides on that end to be respectable from distance.
- Matthew Hurt can shoot. This was a great matchup for him (opponent weak defensively and playing some zone, and lacking a healthy and explosive playmaker to punish him on the other end). That's back-to-back good offensive games from Hurt. Hopefully it continues.
- Baker is a nice weapon to have on the bench whenever teams go zone. He doesn't do much else, but if left open he can sure make a three.
- Quiet game from Stanley other than the dunk. I'll let it slide given the blowout and his performances recently.
- Also a quiet game from Carey, somewhat surprisingly given the opponent. The Canes decided (after Carey torched them last time) to not let him be the guy to beat them last night. They really crowded him out, which left us a bunch of open shots. And boy did we hit them. Prior to last night, he had been really efficient the prior two games, so hopefully he'll bounce back next week.

Nice, fun win. Never in doubt after the opening minutes. Those are nice to have from time to time, especially after a couple of tough losses. Hopefully we can get healthy and take it to the back portion of our schedule!

Wasn't there a debate on here a few years ago about whether Goldwire would ever achieve Tyler Thornton level performance? His year so far looks A LOT like what Tyler did as a Junior:

Goldwire (Jr): 22.1 mins; 4.1 pts; 2.2 Rb; 2.7 Ast; 1.7 Stl; 0.3 Blk; 0.7 TO; 1.5 PF; .492/.320/.571 2pt/3pt/FT%

Thornton (Jr): 22.0 mins; 3.6 pts; 2.3 Rb; 2.2 Ast; 1.3 Stl; 0.1 Blk; 1.1 TO; 2.8 PF; .455/.392/.680 2pt/3pt/FT%

Thornton was a better shooter, but Goldwire has the edge in steals, assists, TOs, and fouls a lot less. He's worked hard and is having a huge impact on this team - congrats to him

[Lurkingdukedog]

Easy win from the beginning, that was a nice game to sit back and watch on mute. Loved watching Hurt play tonight as well as Stanley and Baker. I love when Baker is hitting his shots

I tend to watch a lot of the games on mute, too -- or did you just do this for Dickie V?

[Troublemaker]

Agreed, but I don't understand K's mentality there.

Sure, AOC wasn't strong with the ball when he got in - it really looked like he was finding his legs and hadn't gotten into game flow yet. But one turnover and he sits for a majority of an easy blowout win? Why not let him play through it a bit? I saw plenty of other bad turnovers from Duke where K kept the offending player in the game. Why does AOC have such a short leash?

He's shown he can produce in games, but when you get such a quick hook, you tend to overthink things even more. And overthinking rather than simply reacting has been AOC's issue since he's been there. When he just plays, he can put up points and get steals. But I'd be overly cautious, too, if I knew one mistake was going to get me yanked.

Let's keep some perspective here. I mean, AOC has received 6 starts this season, the most recent one less than 3 weeks ago. This is the one season where it's very difficult to say that any of the top 10 guys weren't given a chance by Coach K to produce.

If it ends up being that Wendell returns and Duke goes to a 9-man rotation with AOC being left out, that's still way deeper of a rotation than I could've dreamt of in the offseason.

One thing about AOC is that the longer 3-pt line this season doesn't have to affect everyone equally. Some players just have weird limits to their range. If what's happening to AOC on offense is basically that he's now a good long 2-pt shooter instead of a good 3-pt shooter under the new three-pt line, he's much less valuable a player to have on the court, according to a million stat dorks.

[Kedsy]

I saw an analytic breakdown on Duke several days ago - from something at ESPN.com - that said the analytics scream that Duke should shoot more threes. I'm not sure where K is with analytics, but it might indeed be a new tactic, or an adjusted one, compared to earlier in the season.

We talked about that article, I think in the Dork Polls thread, and if K uses analytics I hope he doesn't rely on that article because the analysis was flawed. In fact, before the Wake Forest game there was decent evidence suggesting that taking fewer threes led to Duke shooting a higher percentage from three (presumably because we were taking better shots). But we've taken 37% or more of our shots from three in each of the last four games, after doing that only twice in our previous 10 games. This would seem to be a strategic change. And though we've hit 40%+ in three of the four games, whether it's a good change remains to be seen.

I would think playing against a zone defense would raise the % threes, so no surprise there in the first half especially. Fast break points are also more likely against an undermanned team.

I would agree with you if it was a one-game thing. But as noted above, we've taken a lot of threes in four straight games, and not all of them were against zones. And we've had a lot of fast break points in five of six games, including our biggest total of the season against Louisville, which was clearly not an undermanned team.

[Steven43]

Let's keep some perspective here. I mean, AOC has received 6 starts this season, the most recent one less than 3 weeks ago. This is the one season where it's very difficult to say that any of the top 10 guys weren't given a chance by Coach K to produce.

If it ends up being that Wendell returns and Duke goes to a 9-man rotation with AOC being left out, that's still way deeper of a rotation than I could've dreamt of in the offseason.

One thing about AOC is that the longer 3-pt line this season doesn't have to affect everyone equally. Some players just have weird limits to their range. If what's happening to AOC on offense is basically that he's now a good long 2-pt shooter instead of a good 3-pt shooter under the new three-pt line, he's much less valuable a player to have on the court, according to a million stat dorks.

How much further (is it “further” or “farther”?) out is the 3-pt line this season?

[Troublemaker]

How much further (is it “further” or “farther”?) out is the 3-pt line this season?

Farther. 1.4 feet, essentially.

[Kedsy]

How much further (is it “further” or “farther”?) out is the 3-pt line this season?

Farther. Almost a foot and a half.


EDIT: Trouble beat me to it, on both counts.

[Neals384]

Agreed, but I don't understand K's mentality there.

Sure, AOC wasn't strong with the ball when he got in - it really looked like he was finding his legs and hadn't gotten into game flow yet. But one turnover and he sits for a majority of an easy blowout win? Why not let him play through it a bit? I saw plenty of other bad turnovers from Duke where K kept the offending player in the game. Why does AOC have such a short leash?

He's shown he can produce in games, but when you get such a quick hook, you tend to overthink things even more. And overthinking rather than simply reacting has been AOC's issue since he's been there. When he just plays, he can put up points and get steals. But I'd be overly cautious, too, if I knew one mistake was going to get me yanked.

Several posters commented on AOC, too many to quote all so not picking on you, FerryFor50, but...

It wasn't just one mistake. In his first half shift, AOC initially received a pass at the left 3 pt line, although the defender was closing, he had time to get off a clean shot in rhythm. Instead, he did a mini fake and then tried to dribble around the defender to the left. Apparently he didn't notice the defender had shaded his defense that way - the drive opening was to AOC's right. Nothing accomplished, and he passes back to Goldie. Same possession, AOC again receives a pass on the 3 pt line. This time he correctly recognizes the defender is too close for an open 3 pointer, so he dribbles to the right along the 3 point line. There's no advantage to allow him to penetrate for a close shot, but he continues, doesn't recognize the double coming and gets his pocket picked for a Miami runout and Duke foul. It's the under 8 TO, and AOC is back on the bench after one possession.

In his first 2nd half shift (8:54), AOC had a hand in two bad possessions. First, he received the ball at 3 pt line right, waited for a Hurt screen, Miami defended OK so there was no drive or pick and roll available. AOC dribbled a bit toward the center of the court, and passed the ball to Javin, whose entry pass to Hurt was intercepted for a Miami runout. Instead of passing it to Javin, a better option would have been Stanley, who was open on the 3 pt line left. Before AOC's pass, Goldie was directing traffic with his right arm out. Was he trying to alert AOC to how open Stanley was?

The next Duke possession, AOC set up left corner 3 pt line, had a good look for a 3 pointer that was short. Javin made a nice rebound, and tried to pass to AOC, who was headed into the paint. The pass was a bit off target, AOC took his eye off and it glanced off his fingertips for another Miami runout bucket and a Duke timeout. Instead of moving off ball toward the paint, a better option for AOC would have been to slide up the 3 pt line, where Javin's pass would have been easier and AOC would have had a totally open 3 pt try.

4 easy buckets in garbage time are fun, maybe help his confidence, but don't count for much. I really thought he would stay in the rotation until Wendell returns, but we may be just 8 deep now.

[FerryFor50]

Let's keep some perspective here. I mean, AOC has received 6 starts this season, the most recent one less than 3 weeks ago. This is the one season where it's very difficult to say that any of the top 10 guys weren't given a chance by Coach K to produce.

If it ends up being that Wendell returns and Duke goes to a 9-man rotation with AOC being left out, that's still way deeper of a rotation than I could've dreamt of in the offseason.

One thing about AOC is that the longer 3-pt line this season doesn't have to affect everyone equally. Some players just have weird limits to their range. If what's happening to AOC on offense is basically that he's now a good long 2-pt shooter instead of a good 3-pt shooter under the new three-pt line, he's much less valuable a player to have on the court, according to a million stat dorks.

Agree on the offense part of AOC, but he's got a nice midrange jumper, so that at least adds some value.

I know he's played in spurts, but most of his starts were either due to injuries/necessity or because Baker hadn't really come on yet. I'd buy the "he's a junior, he should know better" argument if I didn't see Delaurier fumbling away the ball constantly and still getting pretty consistent minutes.

A 20-30 pt blowout is a great game to get a guy some confidence by playing him despite mistakes. It's also a good game to kill their confidence by sitting him during most of it because of a single mistake.

[CDu]

I would agree with you if it was a one-game thing. But as noted above, we've taken a lot of threes in four straight games, and not all of them were against zones. And we've had a lot of fast break points in five of six games, including our biggest total of the season against Louisville, which was clearly not an undermanned team.

Well, the last four games have been against Miami (who played a lot of zone against us), Louisville (who plays a zone-like pack line defense that tends to force you to take more perimeter shots), Clemson (who allows more three point attempts than anyone in the ACC, #335 nationally), and Wake (who allows 3PA as often as Louisville). So while it is possible that we have had a philosophical shift towards shooting more 3s, it may just be that we have faced teams that allow a lot of 3s.

For what it is worth, against the last team we faced that generally prevents 3s (Georgia Tech) we attempted just 13 3s.

[jv001]

Great synopsis, other than a minor quibble with your comment of “Cassius had a quiet night”. He made some sensational plays that reminded me of a young Michael Jordan. I think this kid could be the “X” factor that pushes this team over the top...if he is fully unleashed.

Yeh, I had more positive stuff regarding Cassius, but somehow I deleted about half the post and when I reposted, I left the amazing dunk out. I know you've seen my posts regarding Cassius. I think he may be our best player and he'd been playing lights out but last night was kind of quiet comparing this game to the previous games. Funny he has a quiet game and we win big where as we lost two games where he played All ACC good but those losses were not on him. I'm certainly not down on Cassius. I love his toughness.

GoDuke!

[kako]

5 thoughts.

1. We have Miami's number. There is nothing about that team this year which I fear. If somehow Duke meets them again, I will be happy.

2. Nice game by Hurt. Hate to agree with Vitale, but I don't see Hurt coming out this year. He's hitting 3's more now, but I don't expect consistency. The guy needs Meatpie Monday. He's going to be a great piece of the puzzle next year.

3. I'm happy Carey did not take a 3 yesterday. Duke needs him in the paint, either as a scorer, rebounder or passing out of the double/triple team.

4. The Athletic has a piece up about Duke's 3 point shooting. I said it there, this year is not about Duke's 3 point shooting. It's not bad this year, but it is streaky. I usually am a big FT% proponent, but even that is not key this year. This team will live or die post-season by it's defense, ball-handling and rebounding.

5. This thread is so short. Did something else happen last night?

9F

[uh_no]

3. I'm happy Carey did not take a 3 yesterday. Duke needs him in the paint, either as a scorer, rebounder or passing out of the double/triple team.

he did.

[Tanner]

A few quick thoughts:

Pretty ho-hum 30 point win. I actually feel bad for Miami as they seemed spent and just couldn't compete, and the lack of life in the game seemed to make it hard for Duke to concentrate in the sloppy second half.

After the first 10 minutes, Coach K, likely looking to the week off ahead, was treating this as a practice and not playing the score. In the last minute of the first half he called a time out, drew up a play, and made an offense for defense sub with Baker and White. In the second half he seemed upset about execution, and as a result left the starters in to work on some things. I assume that is why the minutes don't reflect the blowout nature of the game.

AOC's utilization is a mystery - he made two appearances before the last 3 minutes, and in each had a weak TO and got immediately benched. But in the last 3 minutes he was the focal point of the offense and the team was force feeding him shots. I assume that came from the coaches and not the players on the floor? Really interesting psychology going on there. Hope it jump starts him.

Vitale (for those who did not mute) seemed insistent that Hurt was not a one-and-done player. I thought that a little odd, but he seemed plugged into ESPNs mock draft projections. But he also seemed to think that Tyus Jones was on the Pelicans, so who knows what is going on with him.

Anyway, I'll take a boring, easy 30 point win any day!

Does anyone think Vitale heard this from the staff while he was in town for the game or is it just his opinion. He was very adamant Hurt will be back for a sophomore season.

[weezie]

...Vitale... who knows what is going on with him...

This should be pinned over on the announcers thread.

What a pleasant surprise to see him up in the crow's nest last night. To see him and know everybody not at the game was having a fun night listening, muting, dialing in their short wave radios for the Tibetan broadcast of the game.

One other bit of news: Roger Ayers was in complete control of that game. Teddy V got his few patented what the h-e-hockeysticks calls in but good old Roger kept the reigns tight.

[MartyClark]

Does anyone think Vitale heard this from the staff while he was in town for the game or is it just his opinion. He was very adamant Hurt will be back for a sophomore season.

I would be very surprised if the Duke staff ventured opinions on Hurt's return, to Dickie V or anyone else.

[CDu]

Vitale (for those who did not mute) seemed insistent that Hurt was not a one-and-done player. I thought that a little odd, but he seemed plugged into ESPNs mock draft projections. But he also seemed to think that Tyus Jones was on the Pelicans, so who knows what is going on with him.

Vitale is just generally anti- early entry except for the most obvious cases. And given that virtually everyone who is doing draft projections has Hurt outside of the top-20 at this point (only two sites I've found have him in the top-30), it's not unreasonable for him to suggest that Hurt shouldn't be a one-and-done guy.

And, honestly, it makes sense. He doesn't have good measurables (too scrawny, limited run/jump/shiftiness athleticism), doesn't have a clear position (short and short-armed for an NBA PF, probably not athletic enough for NBA SF), and hasn't shown much other than shooting. Barring some real emergence of other skills, he's a niche NBA player. And those guys don't usually get drafted well.

Now, I am not sure if those points help the case for him to stay (they are things that would probably keep him out of the first round this year) or hurt it (because they are hard to improve upon, he might be just as well off going sooner rather than getting "old" and still having the same limitations). But I can see why Vitale would say it. Hurt clearly isn't ready to play in the NBA physically right now, and I think that's why he was saying Hurt isn't a one-and-done.

I doubt it has anything to do with any conversations Vitale has had with the staff or with Hurt. I think it's just Vitale being Vitale and sharing his opinion.

[Steven43]

Wasn't there a debate on here a few years ago about whether Goldwire would ever achieve Tyler Thornton level performance? His year so far looks A LOT like what Tyler did as a Junior:

Goldwire (Jr): 22.1 mins; 4.1 pts; 2.2 Rb; 2.7 Ast; 1.7 Stl; 0.3 Blk; 0.7 TO; 1.5 PF; .492/.320/.571 2pt/3pt/FT%

Thornton (Jr): 22.0 mins; 3.6 pts; 2.3 Rb; 2.2 Ast; 1.3 Stl; 0.1 Blk; 1.1 TO; 2.8 PF; .455/.392/.680 2pt/3pt/FT%

Thornton was a better shooter, but Goldwire has the edge in steals, assists, TOs, and fouls a lot less. He's worked hard and is having a huge impact on this team - congrats to him

Tyler Thornton shot THIRTY FREAKING NINE.2% from the 3-pt. line as a junior??!! I would have guessed more like 32%, tops. I’m kind of in shock right now.

[CDu]

Tyler Thornton shot THIRTY FREAKING NINE.2% from the 3-pt. line as a junior??!! I would have guessed more like 32%, tops. I’m kind of in shock right now.

He shot 45% from 3 as a senior.