MBB: Duke vs Miami (Tu 1/21, 9:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[brevity]

Should we not turn our attention to the next contest?

Sure, why not. It's just over 24 hours from now.

Miami is Duke's first rematch of the season. The good news is that Duke is now familiar with this Miami team from the first game on January 4, which went quite well: a 95-62 win, with 11 Blue Devils scoring points. The bad news is that the Hurricanes are familiar with us as well, and have seen and experienced a more complete version of this Duke team.

Duke and Miami have faced each other 28 times before, with Duke leading the series 21-7 (10-2 in Cameron). Duke is now ranked 8th in the AP poll, extending their Top 10 streak to 36 consecutive polls. Whether that continues is entirely up to this game, which is Duke's only one this week.

I would ask more knowledgeable posters to provide the pregame analysis, so for now, I'll quote what DavidBenAkiva wrote about the Miami players in the previous game thread:

Jim Larranaga's Miami team has a potent offense fueled by the diminutive Chris Lykes (5'7"). The JR PG is quick as can be and fearless attacking the rim or pulling up from all over the court. He is flanked by excellent shooting guards in SR Dejan Vasilijevic (6'3") and JR Kameron McGusty (6'5"). All three are willing and accurate shooters with Vasilijevic making 46.7% of his 3-point attempts. Miami runs a lot of iso ball. They are near the bottom in assist rate, forcing teams to match up with one of their three guards. Behind the upperclassmen, a pair of freshmen guards, Harold Beverly (6'4") and Isaiah Wong (6'3") will provide spot minutes.

Up front, Miami boasts a big but not overly impressive group of post players. The lead F/C is 6'10" JR Sam Waardenburg, who hails from New Zealand. Waardenburg will take a couple of 3-point attempts and hits them at a decent rate. He is 7-20 from 2 on the season (35.0%). He's more likely to attempt a layup or putback, though. Miami also trots out 7'0" SR Rodney Miller, Jr. and rugged 6'8" SR Keith Stone, a transfer from Florida. Freshman SF Anthony Walker (6'9" 210 lbs.) will also see some time on the floor in the 9-man rotation. The freshmen, Beverly, Walker, and Wong, have all been a net negative when they have been on the court so far this year but give some breathing time to the upperclassmen.

Miami has been able to score the ball at a high level on the season. They do not take a ton of 3-point attempts, but they do make them at a high rate, making 38.9% as a team on the year (11th best in the nation). As a primarily jump-shooting team, they do not foul often or get to the line. And they are not a good rebounding team. In general, Miami is a below-average defensive team. They do not foul the opposing team at all but give up a ton of offensive rebounds. And there is little shot-blocking in spite of their size up front.

I would add only one thing: the tilde to Jim Larrañaga's name.

[Ultrarunner]

I doubt we'll shoot 50 percent from the field again, but I'm okay with being wrong.

Questions:
1. Does Miami emulate the 5-out offense that others have used to expose our tendency to over-play? They're not well suited for it, but might gamble.
2. How much will we miss the defensive presence of Moore?
3. Does Lykes break away from the Goldwire/Jones defense pressure to be effective this game?

[gofurman]

I doubt we'll shoot 50 percent from the field again, but I'm okay with being wrong.

Questions:
1. Does Miami emulate the 5-out offense that others have used to expose our tendency to over-play? They're not well suited for it, but might gamble.
2. How much will we miss the defensive presence of Moore?
3. Does Lykes break away from the Goldwire/Jones defense pressure to be effective this game?

UM took FSU to OT last game. that's one of the best games they have had. Need to win this one -I would be shocked if it was as easy this time as last... despite this one being at home. in Miami, Duke was 6-14 from three while Miami shot the three 2-12. One thing that is positive is Duke killed em on the glass, 41 to 24. I hope we ouitrebound them again though I was surprised to see they rebounded equal with Pitt and Clemson. Odd. They even out rebounded a tough FSU team.

[Ultrarunner]

UM took FSU to OT last game. that's one of the best games they have had. Need to win this one

I'd be okay with deja vu all over again.

[DUKIE V(A)]

I watched Miami crumble down the stretch versus FSU. They relied heavily on Lykes and McGusty to go one on one from what I saw. I don’t see that formula working against Duke. Hopefully, the stick with it tomorrow.

[OldPhiKap]

Oh good, a 9:00 game. We get to miss the beginning because people are fouling and refs are endlessly checking the monitors in the prior game, then we can stay up until after 11 to see the end of our game.

At least it’s on a network I get, so there’s that.

{I can see this is going to be a max grump day}

[jv001]

After the two straight losses, frankly I don't know what to expect. Well, I do expect the Hurricanes to try and drive the ball on us. With some high pnr to draw Vernon away from the basket. If that be the case, I hope the coaching staff has some adjustment up their sleeves. Big Vern had 24 points in 25 minutes on 11-14 and 9 rebounds against them in Miami. I don't want to see our big man sitting over next to Alex for a good part of the game.

GoDuke!

[lotusland]

The good news is that the game is on ESPN not ACCN so I can watch live. The bad news is that all 3 Duke losses have been on ESPN.

[CameronDuke]

Duke is -17.5 tonight over Miami.

[szstark]

I watched Miami crumble down the stretch versus FSU. They relied heavily on Lykes and McGusty to go one on one from what I saw. I don’t see that formula working against Duke. Hopefully, the stick with it tomorrow.

The question is does Miami have a mobile 4 who can go around Hurt or over Jack? That has been the problem the last two games on defense. I don’t remember Miami’s 5‘s being very strong, so Vernon and Javin should be able to handle that on offense, but who will step up against the double teams on Carey?

[Music man55]

I would think that we will be very fired up tonight after two straight losses.I would also assume we will not let the 'canes jump out to a double digit lead on us either. This is only January, but this game is a game we absolutely have to win tonight.So I guess we will be able to know quite a bit about how much our boys want it tonight. I'm going to believe we will take care of business. Go Duke!!

[Saratoga2]

The question is does Miami have a mobile 4 who can go around Hurt or over Jack? That has been the problem the last two games on defense. I don’t remember Miami’s 5‘s being very strong, so Vernon and Javin should be able to handle that on offense, but who will step up against the double teams on Carey?

Clearly Duke has been a different team of late and it was more than just the competition level that caused it. Moore being out, AOC and Delaurier way off their games. I don't know what to expect this time around. A win of any sort would be all I will hope for.

[Kedsy]

The good news is that the game is on ESPN not ACCN so I can watch live. The bad news is that all 3 Duke losses have been on ESPN.

I’m pretty sure SFU was on ACC network (it wasn’t on ESPN on my TV anyway).

[uh_no]

I would think that we will be very fired up tonight after two straight losses.I would also assume we will not let the 'canes jump out to a double digit lead on us either. This is only January, but this game is a game we absolutely have to win tonight.So I guess we will be able to know quite a bit about how much our boys want it tonight. I'm going to believe we will take care of business. Go Duke!!

I wonder if starting carey from the bench is not a bad move. Not because of his poor play, but because he only goes 25 minutes anyway. Run Jack or javin out there to be extremely physical to set the aggressive tone.

I'm sure i'll get the "you're insane trying to bench our best player." But I counter that it's insane thinking that the 5 people who play the tip are necessarily the best 5 or the 5 who should play the most minutes every game. As baseball has largely realized, you don't need to throw your best pitcher at the end of the game, you throw him when he has the most ability to impact the outcome in your favor. There is no reason the same shouldn't be true of the 5 on the court at the start of a basketball game.

Either way, I'm not suggesting this is something I'd necessarily do, but might be something to think about given our penchant for slow starts.

[scottdude8]

I will always remember in the 2009-2010 season the home game after our road loss to Wisconsin. K came out before the game and ran to the Crazies, gave us the get-loud gesture, and got us pumped. He said after the game that winning, even against an average St. John’s team, was super important at that point for the team’s mindset.

This game reminds me of that one. Even against a team we know we can beat, I’ll be looking for intensity from both the Crazies and the team. This is how we get back on track.

[uh_no]

I will always remember in the 2009-2010 season the home game after our road loss to Wisconsin. K came out before the game and ran to the Crazies, gave us the get-loud gesture, and got us pumped. He said after the game that winning, even against an average St. John’s team, was super important at that point for the team’s mindset.

This game reminds me of that one. Even against a team we know we can beat, I’ll be looking for intensity from both the Crazies and the team. This is how we get back on track.

for better or worse, there won't be as much energy from the crazies tonight as there was on saturday. It's a late weeknight game against a mediocre team against whom we don't have particular history but for a few memorable games here and there. We're coming off a double losses, so people will be mildly disillusioned that this is a must-see team, like last years team was. Lastly, tenting isn't in full swing yet (it will pick up next week, and even more a week into february).

Anyway, I'm sure people will be loud, but it won't be like it was saturday. Part of me was sad that we never took the lead since the place would have blown the roof off.

[Fish80]

After the two straight losses, frankly I don't know what to expect. Well, I do expect the Hurricanes to try and drive the ball on us. With some high pnr to draw Vernon away from the basket. If that be the case, I hope the coaching staff has some adjustment up their sleeves. Big Vern had 24 points in 25 minutes on 11-14 and 9 rebounds against them in Miami. I don't want to see our big man sitting over next to Alex for a good part of the game.

GoDuke!

Agree we don’t want Carey sitting for extended periods. As for Alex, let’s hope he earns playing time. That is a better scenario than gluing him to the pine.

[UrinalCake]

I would think that we will be very fired up tonight after two straight losses.I would also assume we will not let the 'canes jump out to a double digit lead on us either.

True, but I would have thought the same after ONE loss, and coming home to play in front of GameDay. So who knows.

If memory serves, in the first game Miami held even with us for the first 10-12 minutes before we started to pull away. If that happens again, they will start playing with more and more confidence. A good start is important so we’re not swimming upstream the whole game.

[duke2x]

Duke is selling GA tickets for tonight to the public if anyone is interested.

I expect this to be closer than the last time. We won with depth and handled the ball better once we settled down.

[uh_no]

Duke is selling GA tickets for tonight to the public if anyone is interested.

i expect there will be GA tickets for the remaining games but UNC. Duke has been more aggressively selling them as they have more data on how many spots are likely to be available. there were 100 GAs for the game this past saturday, even.