DBR Podcast #183 - Why did we lose two games this week?!?!

[JasonEvans]

https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast/db...uke-basketball

It wasn't a great week for Duke Basketball, and the podcast trio is back to discuss what went wrong in the losses to Clemson and Louisville. We preview the Miami game and end with Player of the Week and Parting Shots.


Timestamps:

0:17 - Sam is back from his Asian travels
3:29 - Thank you Byrd Campbell!
3:37 - We start with breaking down the Clemson loss. Energy, missed layups, and an inefficient defense are what we focus on.
13:56 - We continue our recap of a bad week with Louisville and how physical the game was
22:09 - Byrd Campbell means business!
22:37 - We preview Miami and break down what Duke needs to do to get back on track
29:32 - Player of the Week isn't fun this week, but the pick is unanimous
32:18 - Parting Shots: Jason discusses Gonzaga and stupid poll voters, Donald reflects on watching Wojo and Marquette, and Sam does a deep dive on former Duke players at Shooters
43:55 - Jason has one final thought on UNC losing more games and its position in the NET
46:16 - Programming note: we will be back midweek to recap the Miami game as well as Zion Williamson's NBA debut!
47:40 - Duke Band, take us home!

[DukieInBrasil]

i don't remember if it was stated specifically in the podcast, although bench play was mentioned, but one factor that should be looked at was the complete and utter disappearance of Javin DeLaurier in both games. He scored a total of 0 points and grabbed a total of 1 rebound 1 steal and 1 block. A shockingly pathetic contribution from our Sr. captain. I'm not saying that even an above-average Javin performance would have won either game, but his complete inability to do anything of value really hampered our ability to contain the lane, which was a big problem in both games.
As mentioned elsewhere, Vernon gets pulled out on switches and then gets burned b/c he doesn't recover fast enough, which is a tough skill for a Fr. to master. Javin otoh, is a Sr., and also has trouble with this, perhaps not as much as Vernon, i honestly don't know. So, either Javin just isn't applying what he's learned or the coaching staff hasn't figured out in 4 years that he's not really capable of doing that yet continues to ask him to do something he can't do. I'm not really sure i buy either of those arguments, so his exceptionally poor performance these past 2 games, even by Javin standards, really stands out.

the bench gave us 5 pts and 7 rebs vs Louisville, and 13 pts and 7 rebounds vs Clemson, almost all of that coming from Jack White in both games. Javin and AOC disappearing is a very worrying sign. When half of your upperclassmen and 2/5 of your multi-year players can't even show up in consecutive games (J-Bake wasn't even available v. Clemson), then the team has a structural issue that needs fixing.
I have to agree with Jason (J-Ev) about Moore's absence, it's really hurting the team a lot more than i thought it would. It would also be nice for Joey's shot to return.

[JasonEvans]

I had Javin in my notes to talk about, but never got to it. I agree that the huge falloff of the bench play was a significant issue for this team last week. With Moore out and Baker hurt/not shooting well, it really hampers our bench production. I wonder if moving White back into the starting lineup and Hurt to the bench might help to balance things a bit more (though K made me aware there are no rotations at Duke).

[jv001]

i don't remember if it was stated specifically in the podcast, although bench play was mentioned, but one factor that should be looked at was the complete and utter disappearance of Javin DeLaurier in both games. He scored a total of 0 points and grabbed a total of 1 rebound 1 steal and 1 block. A shockingly pathetic contribution from our Sr. captain. I'm not saying that even an above-average Javin performance would have won either game, but his complete inability to do anything of value really hampered our ability to contain the lane, which was a big problem in both games.
As mentioned elsewhere, Vernon gets pulled out on switches and then gets burned b/c he doesn't recover fast enough, which is a tough skill for a Fr. to master. Javin otoh, is a Sr., and also has trouble with this, perhaps not as much as Vernon, i honestly don't know. So, either Javin just isn't applying what he's learned or the coaching staff hasn't figured out in 4 years that he's not really capable of doing that yet continues to ask him to do something he can't do. I'm not really sure i buy either of those arguments, so his exceptionally poor performance these past 2 games, even by Javin standards, really stands out.

the bench gave us 5 pts and 7 rebs vs Louisville, and 13 pts and 7 rebounds vs Clemson, almost all of that coming from Jack White in both games. Javin and AOC disappearing is a very worrying sign. When half of your upperclassmen and 2/5 of your multi-year players can't even show up in consecutive games (J-Bake wasn't even available v. Clemson), then the team has a structural issue that needs fixing.
I have to agree with Jason (J-Ev) about Moore's absence, it's really hurting the team a lot more than i thought it would. It would also be nice for Joey's shot to return.

I hope I never see Duke try to post up Javin when he comes in for Vernon. I don't care if he has a 5'5" point guard on him on a switch. He either brings the ball down where I could get my hands on the ball or he mishandles the pass. On defense Javin has made some bad decisions on double teams that have resulted in wide open shots. At this point, Javin is good for dump downs if he's wide open and he does get some offensive rebounds. I expect more from a 4 year player that many people considered to be a very athletic high school player who would develop into a decent shooter in college. I just want Javin to do the things he's capable of (now that he is a senior) to do them well. I know he's gotten the coaching over these 4 years. So, it's time for Javin to step up and be the player he can be. I give Javin full credit for decreasing his foul rate.

GoDuke!

Oh, as for Duhon being at Shooters, I hope he's learned some important lessons in life on the use of alcohol and driving. He's one of my favorite Duke players. A great podcast that I agreed with 100%.

[UrinalCake]

Wow, I knew our defense was bad but a hundred points per possession? That has to be some kind of record 8-)

[JasonEvans]

Wow, I knew our defense was bad but a hundred points per possession? That has to be some kind of record 8-)

Yeah, I was listening today and realized that I had not been clear that the PPP numbers are Points Per 100 Possessions. I think most folks know that but I should have been more clear. I will say that the correlation between PPP(100) allowed and Duke's success is pretty stark. Here are Duke's worst defensive PPP(100) games this year:

Clemson - 107.5
Louisville - 102.0
SFAustin - 101.1
Michigan St - 99.1
Wofford - 95.1
Va Tech - 95.0
Winthrop - 93.6
Georgetown - 90.5
All other games less than 90 PPP(100)

-Jason "on the season, Duke is averaging giving up 85.2 PPP(100)... making our three losses defensive outliers in a pretty big way" Evans

[Fish80]

Wow, I knew our defense was bad but a hundred points per possession? That has to be some kind of record 8-)

Trying to remember the game, a couple of years ago there was an 8 point possession. Something like hit a three and was fouled, missed foul shot, got rebound, hit a two and got fouled, missed foul shot, got rebound, kicked out for another 3.

[kAzE]

The performance of our upperclassmen in general this year has been very up and down. Javin and Alex are obviously role players on this team, but usually when we think of juniors and seniors, especially guys who have been coached by this staff for 3-4 years, we are more accustomed to guys who make very few mistakes and can be counted on to be "stars in their roles." Once fully healthy, we have enough wing depth to cover for AOC when he is struggling. However, there is no replacement for Javin, unless we plan on playing a lot more Jack White at center (not good). Javin needs to play well for this team to be a championship contender.

Who would have guessed that Jack would be by far the most productive upperclassmen this year? He is likely the toughest player on the team, and he nearly willed this team to wins on both of our losses last week. I'm all for more Jack White, who just has an uncanny nose for the ball. He was in foul trouble both games, but came up with 7 steals in the 2 contests.

[jv001]

The performance of our upperclassmen in general this year has been very up and down. Javin and Alex are obviously role players on this team, but usually when we think of juniors and seniors, especially guys who have been coached by this staff for 3-4 years, we are more accustomed to guys who make very few mistakes and can be counted on to be "stars in their roles." Once fully healthy, we have enough wing depth to cover for AOC when he is struggling. However, there is no replacement for Javin, unless we plan on playing a lot more Jack White at center (not good). Javin needs to play well for this team to be a championship contender.

Who would have guessed that Jack would be by far the most productive upperclassmen this year? He is likely the toughest player on the team, and he nearly willed this team to wins on both of our losses last week. I'm all for more Jack White, who just has an uncanny nose for the ball. He was in foul trouble both games, but came up with 7 steals in the 2 contests.

I love how tough Jack White plays and how he never gives up or sulks. Plus, he's getting his confidence back on his 3 pointer. Yes, he's probably our toughest player with Cassius coming in 2nd. I consider Tre and Jordan pesky players. You know like a bee that keeps flying around you when you're trying to tee off in golf.

GoDuke!

[kAzE]

I love how tough Jack White plays and how he never gives up or sulks. Plus, he's getting his confidence back on his 3 pointer. Yes, he's probably our toughest player with Cassius coming in 2nd. I consider Tre and Jordan pesky players. You know like a bee that keeps flying around you when you're trying to tee off in golf.

GoDuke!

I failed to mention Jordan Goldwire in my previous post about upperclassmen, so shame on me. Even more so than Jack White, Goldwire has surpassed all expectations. If you had said Jack and Jordan would be better players than AOC and Javin 2 years ago, you might have gotten laughed out of the room, but that's how it has played out.

[jv001]

I failed to mention Jordan Goldwire in my previous post about upperclassmen, so shame on me. Even more so than Jack White, Goldwire has surpassed all expectations. If you had said Jack and Jordan would be better players than AOC and Javin 2 years ago, you might have gotten laughed out of the room, but that's how it has played out.

Agree on above^ and if I'm not mistaken, AOC and Javin had the higher rep from most Duke fans. This is why I don't get too excited about the incoming freshmen until they play a few games. Now Zion was a different beast and even then I didn't know just how good he would be. Man, it didn't take long on him.

GoDuke!

[UrinalCake]

Yeah, I was listening today and realized that I had not been clear that the PPP numbers are Points Per 100 Possessions. I think most folks know that but I should have been more clear.

I knew what you meant, just giving you a hard time. I think that our defensive numbers are greatly skewed by the turnovers we committed leading to fast breaks the other way. There is no defense that will look good against a three on one break. When you commit a live ball turnover and they get a dunk on the other end, that’s not bad defense. That’s bad offense. We committed something like 10 turnovers in the first 7 minutes of the game, most leading to layups/dunks. I don’t know what the numbers say about our half court defense when viewed in isolation, but I strongly suspect that it was not nearly as bad.

With that said, the eye test showed that our defense has flaws that opponents have learned to exploit. We need a scheme to defend the pick and roll with Carey drawn out to the perimeter. Carey and Hurt as a tandem are a very non-mobile front court. Not sure if it’s time to mention the Z word, but I’m looking forward to seeing what we do tonight.

[gep]

I knew what you meant, just giving you a hard time. I think that our defensive numbers are greatly skewed by the turnovers we committed leading to fast breaks the other way. There is no defense that will look good against a three on one break. When you commit a live ball turnover and they get a dunk on the other end, that’s not bad defense. That’s bad offense. We committed something like 10 turnovers in the first 7 minutes of the game, most leading to layups/dunks. I don’t know what the numbers say about our half court defense when viewed in isolation, but I strongly suspect that it was not nearly as bad.

With that said, the eye test showed that our defense has flaws that opponents have learned to exploit. We need a scheme to defend the pick and roll with Carey drawn out to the perimeter. Carey and Hurt as a tandem are a very non-mobile front court. Not sure if it’s time to mention the Z word, but I’m looking forward to seeing what we do tonight.

OK... my comment will definitely expose my noviceness. What is the downside if Vernon does not go out to the perimeter when a pick-and-roll is showing, but stays in his defensive position in the paint under the basket. I would like to learn...

[JasonEvans]

OK... my comment will definitely expose my noviceness. What is the downside if Vernon does not go out to the perimeter when a pick-and-roll is showing, but stays in his defensive position in the paint under the basket. I would like to learn...

The downside is a wide open, unguarded three for an opposing guard when Tre or Jordan get screened by the opposing big man. Alternately, opposing guard uses the screen to get an open lane to the basket. Sure, Vernon is waiting there for him, but the opposing ballhandler can now take an unguarded 8-footer or even a contested layup.

Put another way, forcing your perimeter defenders to play 1-on-2 defense is not going to work at all.

[gep]

Thanks...