This Week in the ACC - 1/20-1/26

[jhmoss1812]

Darnit! I had a 2,000 word post ready to go complaining about the refs and we had to go and win the game. It's maddening being an NC State fan.

I’m sure decades of not winning the ACC in any major sport will make a fan mad. Congrats on your win tonight though.

[CameronDuke]

1st win for NCSU in Charlottesville over UVa in 15 years.

That’s also the 1st time Tony Bennett has lost to NCSU in the regular season in his career at UVa.

[JasonEvans]

Thank goodness State won that game because I don't think Pack fans could have survived a loss like that. I'm pretty sure I have never seen a team execute that poorly in the final 25 seconds of a game. I mean... wow! The foul on the meaningless out of bounds play was terrible... and then they missed two front ends... and then they intentionally fouled an 85% shooter on a team that could not score all night giving them two easy points with more than 8 seconds left on the clock. What was Keats doing?!?!

[devildeac]

Amazing for the Pack to win after playing dead for about 10 minutes in the middle of the 2nd half.

This is not (quite) your Robinson-Sendek-Lowe-Gottfried Wolfpack .

[OldPhiKap]

This is not (quite) your Robinson-Sendek-Lowe-Gottfried Wolfpack.

If ever there was a phrase to inspire confidence . . . .

[CameronDuke]

At 12-6, 4-4, UVa is now 48th on Kenpom. UVa’s defense is still elite at 2nd in the country. However, the offense is abysmally ranked at 238th in the nation.

Depicted below is UVa’s adjusted offensive efficiency according to Kenpom for every one of Tony Bennett’s 11 seasons coaching at UVa. In this his 11th season in Charlottesville, this is the worst offense by far. The previous worst offense was in his second season at UVa, 2010-2011. That offense was ranked 159th.

2009-2010 - 87th
2010-2011 - 159th
2011-2012 - 133rd
2012-2013 - 83rd
2013-2014 - 27th
2014-2015 - 21st
2015-2016 - 8th
2016-2017 - 50th
2017-2018 - 30th
2018-2019 - 2nd
2019-2020 - 238th

UVa is now 91-341 (26.7%) from 3 on the season.

With the ACC being down this year, I still think they can win enough of their 12 remaining ACC games along with a game or two in the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, but they need to turn it around quickly. They are now 1-4 in their last 5 league games.

[jhmoss1812]

At 12-6, 4-4, UVa is now 48th on Kenpom. UVa’s defense is still elite at 2nd in the country. However, the offense is abysmally ranked at 238th in the nation.

Depicted below is UVa’s adjusted offensive efficiency according to Kenpom for every one of Tony Bennett’s 11 seasons coaching at UVa. In this his 11th season in Charlottesville, this is the worst offense by far. The previous worst offense was in his second season at UVa, 2010-2011. That offense was ranked 159th.

2009-2010 - 87th
2010-2011 - 159th
2011-2012 - 133rd
2012-2013 - 83rd
2013-2014 - 27th
2014-2015 - 21st
2015-2016 - 8th
2016-2017 - 50th
2017-2018 - 30th
2018-2019 - 2nd
2019-2020 - 238th

UVa is now 91-341 (26.7%) from 3 on the season.

With the ACC being down this year, I still think they can win enough of their 12 remaining ACC games along with a game or two in the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, but they need to turn it around quickly. They are now 1-4 in their last 5 league games.

Looks like I might have to rewatch last year's natty run more than I anticipated this year.

Offense is absolutely abysmal this year. Combination of early departures and some recruiting misses on Tony's part.

Hopefully it's a one year blip with a good recruiting class coming in and the Sam Hauser transfer.

[CameronDuke]

Looks like I might have to rewatch last year's natty run more than I anticipated this year.

Offense is absolutely abysmal this year. Combination of early departures and some recruiting misses on Tony's part.

Hopefully it's a one year blip with a good recruiting class coming in and the Sam Hauser transfer.

Yeah, the offense just can’t put the ball in the hoop. I am big on Huff but am still waiting on him to break out. I think Key’s ankle is bothering him, too. Diakite is doing all he can. Clark is giving his all but is a bit undersized and gets into trouble dribbling at times and turns it over. The way UVa defends, they have actually been in most of the conference losses they’ve sustained. They have led with under 4 minutes to go I believe in all of the losses. That is why I think they are capable of being on the winning side of a few more of these. The margin for winning and losing the way their offense is performing this year is very small.

Hauser will help next year. I’m excited to see him play. I’m sure this is a blip on the radar. Like you said, they won the Natty last year. I know it’s frustrating this season thus far, but that’s the ultimate goal and they achieved it.

I think the bad shooting is part mental by now. They’re better than this. They still have time to turn it around.

[PackMan97]

No call
https://twitter.com/DH4thePack/statu...56179459514368

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

No call
https://twitter.com/DH4thePack/statu...56179459514368

Careful. We don’t need to give the cheaters any more rebounding “tips and tricks” to add to their incessant pushing from behind.

BTW, can you imagine if that had been a Dukie? The internet would have imploded and come to a stand still. But not even the slightest mention by the Worldwide Leader.

[jhmoss1812]

No call
https://twitter.com/DH4thePack/statu...56179459514368

His neck shouldn’t have been standing there

[AZLA]

Careful. We don’t need to give the cheaters any more rebounding “tips and tricks” to add to their incessant pushing from behind.

BTW, can you imagine if that had been a Dukie? The internet would have imploded and come to a stand still. But not even the slightest mention by the Worldwide Leader.

That punk was getting away with that crap all night. He threw an elbow too and they gave a double tech. Which was bunk. After watching that game it; maybe Coach K is onto something. Besides the poor sportsmanship, UVA was routinely holding, mugging, and literally jumping into players expecting the charge every time. It made more sense regarding Ks comments about movement of the offensive player and how the refs are struggling with interpreting the rule. Wolfpack deserved to win and they did.

[PackMan97]

...and here is what gets called for a foul on the other end.

https://twitter.com/FireIcePackPod/s...55172604198919

[BD80]

No call
https://twitter.com/DH4thePack/statu...56179459514368

...and here is what gets called for a foul on the other end.

https://twitter.com/FireIcePackPod/s...55172604198919

The film session where the ACC reviews the calls with the officiating crew will probably be as meaningful as a language lab in AFAM at carolina. (Remember, it's not just the athletes, ALL unc students are entitled to a bogus degree!)

[JasonEvans]

No call
https://twitter.com/DH4thePack/statu...56179459514368

I keep looking at it trying to decide if there is some way to say that Huff was just trying to make contact to help with a box out or something like that... but I just keep seeing him punch the dude in the throat.

Look, refs cannot see everything and this happened just as a shot went up and I would imagine they are watching the shooter and the lower post where dudes are fighting for rebounds. That said, this should be reviewed by the ACC league office and making Huff sit a game would not seem to be entirely outrageous.

[sagegrouse]

I thought the foul against Funderburk (#5) was nothing and the foul with 27 seconds left against Kihei was less than nothing.

I didn't see Huff's assault against Funderburk shown in your first link.

[TruBlu]

It wouldn't be a surprise (to me, anyway) for UVA to take action against Huff without ACC input. UVA and Bennett seem like class acts.

[JasonEvans]

So, where do we think various teams in the ACC stand in terms of making the dance?

Obviously, Duke, FSU, and Louisville are all but locks. But can the league find any more bids? I think a fourth team will emerge almost because one has to. It is just super unlikely that no one else finds their way to 11 or 12 conference wins. I think any ACC team that finds it way to 12-8 or better will make the NCAA tourney but will 11-9 get it done in terms of a bid? Obviously, it depends on other factors such as non-conference games and how you get to 11-9 but I am somewhat skeptical because the league is so down. So, who has a shot at getting to 12 conference wins?

NC State is 5-3 in the league and 14-5 overall. After their win at Virginia last night I think a very solid case can be made that the Pack are the 4th best team in the conference. They are 43 in Pomeroy and 45 in the NET. But, their schedule the rest of the way is tough with 4 games left against the Big Three in the league. Luckily, they get FSU, Lou, and Duke at State and only Duke on the road. They probably need to take care of business in all their other home games and then find a way to win a couple more road contests: @BC, @UNC, @GT, @Syr, and @Miami.

Va Tech is 4-3 in the league and 13-5 overall with a nice chance to get to a gaudy league record over their next three games UNC, @BC, and @Mia. They also play 5 of their final 8 games at home and all 5 of those home games are against mid-lower tier ACC teams. I sorta think Va Tech, which many had projected for the bottom of the conference, has the best shot at getting to 12 ACC wins. They aer very similar to State in terms of the rankings, #56 in Pom and #44 in NET.

Syr is also 4-3 in the league but just 11-7 overall. They got a huge break from the scheduling gods this year by only playing the Big Three once each, but all three of those games are still to come. The Orange also close with 5 of their final 7 on the road including both at FSU and at Lou so it feels to me like they will likely stumble to the finish even if they rack up some wins here in the middle of the ACC season. Just looking at how they have performed thus far, I don't see them getting to 12 wins.

We have to talk about Virginia, the defending National Champs. As everyone knows, if their offense ever clicks even a little bit they are going to be great, but we are halfway through the season and they are just godawful on O. The Cavs are 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, so they need to find a way to win a lot more than they lose the rest of the way. Pomeroy has them at #49 and they are #63 in the NET so they've got some work to do. The schedule is not very kind. Virginia has 4 games left against the Big Three including @Louisville. If they win all their other games but lose those contests then they get to 12-8, but last night shows you what a tall order that will be. Virginia's final 5 games will be murder -- @Pitt, @VT, Duke, @Mia, and then Lou. They are very likely to be underdogs in at least 3 of those games and the other two will be tossups at best. I keep on trying to figure out how Virginia gets to 12 ACC wins but I can't.

There is one other team I want to highlight right now... Pitt. The Panthers are 3-4 in the league and 12-6 overall but their schedule is pretty nice because they've already dealt with much of the tough stuff. They play @Duke and @FSU but are done with Louisville. Their season opening win against FSU looks really good right now though their resume would look a lot better without a loss at home to Wake or against Nichols back in November. Still, it is not like you look at their schedule and see a ton of games in which they will have no chance. If they can pick up a couple road wins like @ND, @Syr, @GT then they have a real shot, I think. The Panthers are #67 in Pom and #69 in the NET so they have some work to do.

-Jason "a lot will shake out in the next week... currently so many teams with 4 or 5 losses it is tough to tell who is ok and who is just awful" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

So, where do we think various teams in the ACC stand in terms of making the dance?

I'm just assuming that the NIT is going to be renamed as The ACC Invitational this year.

[duke2x]

We don't have much experience with the NET, but the number of at-large bids has not changed since the RPI. You need a NET ca. 40 for serious consideration and ca. 50 with some really compelling reasons like catastrophic injury, gross overscheduling, etc.