Is Duke on Schedule?

[DavidBenAkiva]

My first inclination to understand a team is to look at the data. One way to think about Duke this season is in context to all the other Duke teams over the years. There are several optimistic posts on twitter I see floating around that show some of Duke's best teams had a string of bad games in January. So it made me wonder, how does this Duke team stack up against recent examples? Here's what I found, based on pure win-loss.

Duke Schedule-Results.JPG

A few things jump out.

Based on the schedule and results, this Duke team had a typical November and December. The loss to SFA was an outlier, but it is typical for Duke to drop at least one game early in the season and then coast in December.

What it also shows is that Duke two most recent National Title teams turned it on in February.

This Duke team has some tests in February, starting with a road game at Syracuse, a home matchup against FSU, and then road trips to NC State and Virginia. It is a hard schedule overall than what Duke has faced in the conference. Will this Duke team respond? I think they can. Duke is favored in all its remaining games. Health will be a factor, as will matchups. But I think it is too early to know how good this particular Duke team will be. After a tough week, I am squarely in the wait-and-see mode.

[budwom]

on schedule for what?

[uh_no]

on schedule for what?

well, can't be for classes...they aren't held on MLK day.

[scottdude8]

Well done, and great analysis! I brought up a similar discussion in my NET update following the loss:

Last year had the home Syracuse disappointment. In 2018 we lost twice in January including @NC State (our house of horrors of the past decade I’d argue), and home against Virginia (a similar caliber team in the ACC to Louisville this year)! In 2017 we lost three of four in January including a vexing home loss to (guess who) NC State. In 2016 we lost three straight and four of five, including two straight at home to unranked teams! And then there’s the well documented 2015 squad.

All of those squads, despite January struggles, either went to at least the Sweet 16 and/or won the ACC tourney.

So while "on schedule" might be a bit of a hard term to define (on schedule for what?), I'd strongly argue that what we saw last week is A) Not out of the norm for our "one-and-done" era teams, and B) Not something that "disqualifies" us from any of the goals we aspire to this year.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

So while "on schedule" might be a bit of a hard term to define (on schedule for what?), I'd strongly argue that what we saw last week is A) Not out of the norm for our "one-and-done" era teams, and B) Not something that "disqualifies" us from any of the goals we aspire to this year.

This is a great response...put another way, Duke is certainly on a type of schedule that has resulted in high rankings, high seeds and great post season performances.. of course you don't ever "schedule" January struggles on the way to hoped for greatness, but it happens, and has happened to Duke before.

[DukieInBrasil]

Duke was also favored to win each of the last 2 games, so i'm not sure how much confidence should be placed in how we're predicted to play. That being said, FSU at Duke will be a battle that will be tough, Duke will lose that game if it plays like it did the past 2 games. UVA will also be a hard test, but if Duke can play a reasonable simile of offense, we ought to win.

[Tripping William]

UVA will also be a hard test, but if Duke can play a reasonable simile of offense, we ought to win.

And metaphors be with us.

[devildeac]

And metaphors be with us.

Chicken dinner...

And it's not even the day after May 3 yet .

[uh_no]

And metaphors be with us.

and with your spirit.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

And metaphors be with us.

...oh nice....

[OldPhiKap]

and with your spirit.

Feeling consubstantial?

[uh_no]

Feeling consubstantial?

not under my roof