MBB: Louisville 79, Duke 73 Post-game thread

[Mak P]

At the risk of sounding like a Debbie downer, I think we might be overvaluing Moore just a bit. We’re certainly a better team with him than without, but I’m not expecting him to be a savior who magically fixes all of our problems when he returns. He’s not a creator or a shooter and he turns the ball over a lot. He’s had good games but he’s had bad games too. Would he have made the difference in this one? Maybe, but it’s certainly not guaranteed.

He's not the star of the show by any means, but his size, physicality and ability to run the point helps with match-up problems these last 2 games. His ability to get to the paint helps as well

[mkirsh]

My thoughts

- Duke played young at the beginning and end of the game. Had a great burst to start the second half, but needed that all game.

- Very physical game, which bogged down our offense. Especially Carey and Tre.

- The book on Duke seems to be quick double on Carey and dare him to make the right read. On offense play five out and pick and pop with the 5. Let’s see how coach K adjusts.

- Bad game to have an off night from 3. We had 2 that were all the way down but rattled out, and Baker had a lot of good looks that he didn’t hit.

- The 3 at the end of the first half really hurt. I thought Jav made the right decision to trap but credit Louisville’s big for hitting the 3.

- I don’t think Duke was prepared for Johnson. We took Nwora out of the game but had no answer for Johnson in the first half. Better job after halftime though. Hope he is ok.

- if ESPN is going to force feed us 94 feet, can they at least give up 15 seconds of commercial vs split screen? Or do it in the first half instead of important game action?

- We haven’t won a game since Shane Ryan posted that ACC regular season championship thread. I’m blaming him

[uh_no]

At the risk of sounding like a Debbie downer, I think we might be overvaluing Moore just a bit. We’re certainly a better team with him than without, but I’m not expecting him to be a savior who magically fixes all of our problems when he returns. He’s not a creator or a shooter and he turns the ball over a lot. He’s had good games but he’s had bad games too. Would he have made the difference in this one? Maybe, but it’s certainly not guaranteed.

I'm not sure anyone thinks that...well, this is the internet, so i'm sure SOMEONE thinks that.

[BobBender]

I am always disappointed when K’s post-game presser starts with something to the effect of” not to take anything away from our opponent” and then he goes on to...well, discredit the opponent. Whenever a team out-muscles or just physically overmatches the Devils, K can’t resist making the snarky comments. How about for once just owning up and saying something like “ they kicked our butt and I didn’t have the team prepared”. I’ve seen this press conference schtick of his once too many times.

[robed deity]

I am always disappointed when K’s post-game presser starts with something to the effect of” not to take anything away from our opponent” and then he goes on to...well, discredit the opponent. Whenever a team out-muscles or just physically overmatches the Devils, K can’t resist making the snarky comments. How about for once just owning up and saying something like “ they kicked our butt and I didn’t have the team prepared”. I’ve seen this press conference schtick of his once too many times.

I always think K gives the opponent tons of credit, so I guess I'm not sure what you're talking about.

[dukelifer]

I am always disappointed when K’s post-game presser starts with something to the effect of” not to take anything away from our opponent” and then he goes on to...well, discredit the opponent. Whenever a team out-muscles or just physically overmatches the Devils, K can’t resist making the snarky comments. How about for once just owning up and saying something like “ they kicked our butt and I didn’t have the team prepared”. I’ve seen this press conference schtick of his once too many times.

I am pretty sure you have not watched many Press conferences then.

[Furniture]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoMit96zoAY

Here is the press conference....

K is pretty mad...

[jipops]

I am always disappointed when K’s post-game presser starts with something to the effect of” not to take anything away from our opponent” and then he goes on to...well, discredit the opponent. Whenever a team out-muscles or just physically overmatches the Devils, K can’t resist making the snarky comments. How about for once just owning up and saying something like “ they kicked our butt and I didn’t have the team prepared”. I’ve seen this press conference schtick of his once too many times.

It was pretty clear that Duke wasn’t prepared. Even worse, Duke didn’t score at all the last 3:25. K calls a time out with 1:54 left. What’s the set play? Tre go hero ball with zero movement off the ball. Just a very bad series of sets (or non sets) for K. I just don’t understand what K is even thinking at all at he end of the game but those possessions were awful. There was zero movement. Did he even draw anything up at all? And if he is going to leave the best player on the bench in a huge game then is the team really being put in a position to win at all?

As you can see I’m just miffed by K’s non-coaching tonight.

[heyman25]

Disappointing loss but I remain high on this team. It can get a lot better with some better decision making alone. Loved the comeback and effort. Was frustrated that we settled for tough threes at the end. We were perhaps one shot away from winning this game but just didn’t hit when it counted most. Can’t wait till Tuesday.

All the players realize they have to play stronger. Our passing game stinks right now.Baker missed some shots he usually hits.Jav and Jack gave us no offense today. Louisville wanted it more and it showed. Carey has been neutralized by the bigs of the last 3 games.His decisions with the ball has not been stellar lately.Other than Cassius Stanley the whole team need to start playing better.
I trust Coach K will right the ship. Getting Wendell back will be a big lift.
Alex O'Connell better bust his arse to get any pt. Baker doesn't always have great moments, but at least he plays with passion. Baker will get his groove back. All of the bench are so damn inconsistent. You never know what you are going to get.

[DUKIE V(A)]

I thought Baker looked in over his head tonight. If his shot isn’t going down he isn’t adding much value.

K likes to tighten things up when adversity hits. This looks like one of those times.

Joey Baker belongs. His shot was not falling tonight, but he is a critical and capable player even in high level games. Getting quality outside shooting is going to dictate how effective our offense is in the post season. In my mind, Joey is our best pure shooter.

[Kedsy]

OK, let's start with this - we've had three games this season when our UNadjusted dRating is over 1.0, and we've lost all three games. We haven't lost any games when our unadjusted dRating is less than 1.0. We've had four games this season when our unadjusted oRating is under 1.0, and we've lost three of four. The only game we won when our unadjusted oRating was less than 1.0 was the Kansas game. So, our only losses have come when BOTH our offense and defense have been subpar; or put another way, all of our poor defensive performances have also featured poor offensive performances, and almost all (all but one) of our poor offensive performances have been augmented by poor defensive performances. Which is kind of weird, right?

OFFENSE

Possessions: 77.43 (fairly fast)
oRtg: 0.94 (1.08 adjusted; not that good)
eFG%: 41.9% (pretty lousy)
3pt%: 24.0% (poor)
2pt%: 45.9% (also poor)
%threes: 40.3% (too high; another data point supporting the we-shoot-better-when-we-take-fewer-threes theory)
FT rate: 38.7% (good for 4th straight game)
OR%: 31.8% (way better than last game, but still meh)
TO%: 20.7% (not good)
a/to: 0.69:1 (also not good)
%assisted: 47.8%
fast break pts: 25 (34.2% of points; best fast break performance of the season)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.02 (adjusted dRtg of 0.92 isn't terrible, but not good either)
eFG%: 48.3% (we'd hope for better, but close to the median for the season (10th best, 8th worst))
3pt%: 50.0% (very bad)
2pt%: 47.8% (again, not awful -- 11th best, 7th worst opposing 2pt% of the season)
%threes: 23.3% (good; another game (12th time) that an opponent has taken fewer than 30+% of shots from three)
FT rate: 28.3% (not bad)
DR%: 75.0% (pretty good)
TO%: 22.0% (also pretty good; 7th straight defensive TO% of 20+% (and 8th in nine games))
a/to: 0.94:1
%assisted: 55.2%
stl%: 16.7% (very good)
blk%: 10.0% (13.0% of 2pt shots) (reasonably strong)
fast break pts: 23 (29.1% of points; awful - most fast break points given up this season)


Other than our FT rate, the only thing we did well on offense was fast break points. The defensive numbers puzzle me. My eyes told me our D was poor. The overall dRating was not very good. But the individual four factors look fine. The only defensive things we did especially poorly were give up a ton of fast break points and a way-too-high 3pt%. Those of course both hurt our opposing eFG%, but even so it was no worse than middling. And our defensive FT rate, defensive rebounding, and defensive turnovers were all pretty good. So how'd we give up more than a point per possession? I don't really know.

[Kedsy]

Looking at our adjusted ratings, we played offense like the 46th best O in the nation and played defense like the 38th best D in the nation. Which doesn’t sound so bad (and is certainly better than we did against Clemson) but is kind of mediocre for a team with Final Four aspirations.

[rocketeli]

Really tired of watching Tre out of control and turnovers. And lazy sloppy play from him at end of game situations. He quits on defense all the time!

And here I thought I would be creating controversy by posting on this board that I thought Tre Jones was a good point guard--but not a great point guard or someone who could be a starter/significant minutes player in the NBA at that position. I need to step up my trolling game! (Grammar police alert! as a side note when you are looking for something you are usually trying to say you are "trawling" for it, not trolling, but I digress.) Anyway, a good point guard is a very nice thing to have. A lot of college coaches would probably trade one of their children for one. (Does Roy Williams have kids?)

I think a lot of posters got all excited when Duke beat up some teams at the bottom of the standings and started penciling their National Championship celebration party a little early. This is a team with a number of intriguing parts, a lot of very freshman-y freshman, some veteran role players...and a good point guard. They can get better, but they aren't going to win every game against better ACC teams. Luckily the ACC has a lot of "parity" this year and they should finish in the top four. They may not get, or deserve, a top seed, but I think also they are less vulnerable to making an immediate exit than some other teams of the past few years.

[Saratoga2]

At the risk of sounding like a Debbie downer, I think we might be overvaluing Moore just a bit. We’re certainly a better team with him than without, but I’m not expecting him to be a savior who magically fixes all of our problems when he returns. He’s not a creator or a shooter and he turns the ball over a lot. He’s had good games but he’s had bad games too. Would he have made the difference in this one? Maybe, but it’s certainly not guaranteed.

I think what he brings is rugged defense. His minutes, replacing a guy who couldn't score and was ineffective on defense would help. How much is anyones guess. When you look at minutes played last night, Louisville really spread their minutes out compared to ours where Tre and Cassius played more than any of theirs. Coach K has reduced AOC's time and also used Javin sparingly due to his ineffectiveness. Wendell is a player who could give us some worthwhile minutes although I agree that his shooting and ball handling are not superior.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Now they have the tiebreaker, which may come into play for ACCT, but I think it may end up being a bigger factor for NCAAT #1 seed. I see at least 3 or 4 more losses out there. That’s probably second or third in conference. If neither we nor Louisville win the ACCT, then I’d wager they get the #1 seed assuming they win the regular season. This one hurts now, but it will hurt later too.

There's really no need for hand wringing over NCAA seeds yet.

I'd bet a pie that if Duke hits selection Sunday with five losses or less we get a one seed. Possibly, given the relative weakness of other teams, up to seven losses.

[roywhite]

Message from SFA, Clemson, and Louisville: This team can be out-muscled.

[Indoor66]

Baker had a poor night and AOC was MIA. Missing Moore More right now.

FIFY

[DrChainsaw]

Considering the up and down play of the top teams thus far, I think the NCAA tourney is going to be even more of a crap shoot than normal.

[DrChainsaw]

How about that? I'm not a wanker for saying "crap"! 🙄

[Duke79UNLV77]

White deserves credit for his leadership yesterday. Stanley really hung his head after his last miss, but Jack put his hand under Cassius’s chin and lifted it up and spoke to him. That may pay dividends later.

I understood taking Carey out on defense at the end, but, just like at the end against SFA, we didn’t put him back in on offense, even after a timeout. This goes in the category that I only agree with K’s strategy 98% of the time. The last plays, including the ones out of the timeout, were also disappointing.

At least we played pretty well and definitely spirited in the second half after a weird first half of turnovers.