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  1. #1

    MBB: Duke v Louisville (Sat 1/18, 6:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    Welp.

    After an unfortunate trip to Clemson, SC, Duke looks to rebound against one of its toughest opponents to date, the Louisville Cardinals. Duke fans may remember the dramatic experience in Louisville last season. No doubt that left a bitter taste in the mouth of the Cardinals and their fans. As if they needed any extra motivation to play Duke.

    The Cardinals are, quite simply, a solid team. They shoot the ball very well. They make life difficult to score around the basket. They are very good at defending the 3. They have length. They have experience. Of their top 7 scorers, all are either juniors or seniors. It's a good group. And yet, the Cardinals have looked so-so against their toughest opponents. They lost their first game in New York City against Texas Tech and looked completely mediocre on offense. They lost in overtime in Lexington to their rival, Kentucky. They followed that up with a loss at home to Florida State. While Duke was looking lost on Tuesday night to Clemson, Louisville just escaped Pittsburgh with an overtime victory (which also included a terrible call against the Panthers that had an effect on the outcome). Their best win came against a Michigan team that is looking less and less impressive. So it is hard to tell just how good Louisville really is. They look good on paper.

    The team is led by POTY candidate JR F Jordan Nwora (6'7"). He is their leading scorer, pouring in 20 points a game to go along with 7 rebounds. He shoots the ball very, very well, making 44% of his 3-pointers. SR G Dwayne Sutton (6'5") is their leading rebounder, pulling down more than 9 per game to go along with his 9 points per game. UofL is one of the best offensive rebounding teams, and Sutton is one of the keys to their success. He's a real bulldog on the offensive glass. He can get lost a bit on offense but makes his shots at a high rate. SR G Ryan McMahon (6'0") is another gunner and might be the best or second best shooter on the team behind Nwora. McMahon is basically a designated gunner, rarely taking shots inside the arc.

    Up front, Louisville relies on a pair of long and experienced big men. SR Stevon Enoch (6'10") is the second-leading scorer on the team, averaging about 10 points per game. He is decent offensively and will take the occasional jumper. He is also the best shot blocker on the team, although not particularly outstanding in that area. He is backed up by JR Mark Williams (6'11"), who honestly is like a carbon copy of Enoch. He's long, not overly skilled but good, and scores around the rim while taking a few jumpers a game. The Irish FR Aidan Igeihon (6'1'0") is an absolute unit of a human being but has not played or distinguished himself much so far in his freshman year.

    Head Coach Chris Mack brought in a really deep and talented freshman class this season and has another one coming in next year. FR F Samuell Williamson (6'7") looks the part of a future stud, but he's getting minimal playing time with Jordan Nwora firmly ensconced at the same position. Likewise, 6'5" G David Johnson has received spot minutes here and there.

    Where Louisville has struggled some is in the PG position. They rely on JR Darius Perry (6'2") and grad-transfer SR Lamarr "Fresh" Kimble (6'0") to handle the ball handling duties. They are ok. Perry, in particular, has had a case of the turnovers. That was particularly true against Texas Tech and Florida State, where Louisville coughed the ball up during about a quarter of their possessions. Where this Louisville team differs from those of the Rick Pitino era is that they do not pressure the ball very effectively. In fact, they are one of the worst teams in the nation in forcing TO's. They rarely poke the ball away or force teams into making bad decisions. Instead, they use their great length to make life difficult shooting the ball.

    One of the big questions for Duke will be health. Will Joey Baker be available on Saturday night? On paper, Duke could match up well against UofL. Tre Jones provides a serious advantage at the PG position in this one. He and Jordan Goldwire could force Louisville into making bad decisions. On the other hand, we just saw how a physical guard like Dwayne Sutton can make life difficult for Duke without the right matchup. And then there is the case of defending Jordan Nwora. He is the head of the snake for Louisville's offense. He was a complete non-factor against Kentucky and struggled against both Texas Tech and Pitt. He was really good against Florida State, scoring a season-high 32 points on just 15 shots. But he did turn the ball over 4 times in that one and has averaged 2.5 TOs in his last 8 games. This could be a game where we see a lot of Jack White in the lineup. Cassius Stanley could also use his athleticism to keep up with Nwora. Wendell Moore's length would have come in handy against Nwora. Alas. It will be interesting to see how Matthew Hurt matches up with Nwora. He certainly has the size to do it and Nwora isn't the most physical player. It could work. If Hurt is able to check Nwora, that would be a big win for Duke. Otherwise, we might see a lot of lineups where Duke switches against their guards and hopes Nwora doesn't go off shooting over Goldwire or Jones.

    Down low, Vernon Carey, Jr. should be able to hold his own on defense as their bigs are not as skilled or physical as recent bigs Duke has faced. Enoch is good and does take a few jumpers, but he is not a dominant scorer. What Louisville can do is make shooting around the rim difficult for Duke with their length. Carey has struggled against longer defenders and the Cardinals have plenty of them. But they aren't going to be bigger than him. And Carey can carve out the space against anyone Louisville will have on the floor. This is a key for Duke. Carey can relieve pressure on the offense by scoring early and often. And of course, making free throws would be helpful. This won't be easy for Duke. The Blue Devils will have to shoot it well from all over the floor and hold their own on defense. Contributions from Goldwire and White will pay huge dividends. It would be nice to see Duke bounce back after a tough loss. Saturday night, the lights will be bright. Will the Blue Devils turn it on?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC

    Scouting Report

    The Cardinals are going to be a tough matchup for us. I'd feel a lot better if Wendell Moore was playing, because their best player is the type of guy we don't have many counters for. They can punish you inside or outside, especially outside. The one area that they struggle in though, is one of our strengths (turnovers). So hopefully we can punish that.

    Centers: The Cardinals have a pair of monsters up front. Stephen Enoch (6'10", 255lb) is a REALLY good player. He has a nice touch from the perimeter, but also is a very effective back-to-the-basket scorer. He's going to be a real headache for Carey. Enoch is very stout, and very good, on both ends of the floor. He is a grown-a__ man on the court. Rebounds well on both ends, blocks shots, hits jumpers, has a really nice post game. He's not as fluid with the ball as Aamir Simms was last night, but otherwise he's comparably dangerous both inside and out. Behind him is Malik Williams (6'11", 245lb). Williams is longer and leaner than Enoch, but still very dangerous. He's much more willing to take a 3 than Enoch, and despite his low % this year is quite capable from out there. Williams is springier than Enoch, with loads of potential, but has never quite put it together. The two rarely play together, but they average about 18 and 13 in less than 40 minutes combined.

    Forwards The other spot where the Cardinals will give us trouble is at forward. Especially without Wendell Moore, we're really not well matched up against the Cards at forward. The two starters are both studs. Jordan Nwora (6'7", 225lb) is an All-American and PoY candidate. He isn't overly athletic, but he's incredibly skilled with the ball. He's an ELITE shooter and can score at all 3 levels. Against bigs, he can shoot 3s and drive. Against smalls, he can score in the post. He's physically strong and just athletic enough to to make his skill and savvy work. It will be really interesting to see how we handle him. Hopefully Hurt and White can do the job. The problem is that Nwora isn't the only weapon. Dwayne Sutton (6'5", 220lb) is an absolute dynamo. He is like a better version of Tevin Mack, who gave us fits last night. Sutton is a pretty terrific rebounder, and not a bad shotblocker. He's extremely strong, physical, and athletic. But with that size and athleticism comes a fair amount of skill. He's a little like Justise Winslow - capable of guarding 1 to 5 without embarrassment, better 3pt shooter than you'd expect, and just a monster all around player. Don't let his low scoring average fool you: the Cardinals' pace of play is partly to blame, along with Nwora and their centers, otherwise this guy would be a double-double machine. We might be okay against one of these guys, but handling both is going to be a problem without Moore. Sam Williamson (6'7", 200lb) is the other forward of note. But I use that term loosely. He's mostly minutes filler for the other two.

    Wings: Ryan McMahon (6'0", 185lb) is the primary wing. Technically, he's their sixth man, but he plays starter minutes coming off the bench. He's a marksman: 43% on 3s, 91% on FTs. He doesn't get fouled in regular play much, mainly because almost 80% of his FG attempts are 3s. You have to account for him at all times, but he's largely there as floor spacing for the others and does nearly all his scoring via assists. Behind McMahon is David Johnson (6'5", 210lb). Johnson is a talented combo guard. He's capable of creating his own shot or for others, and can shoot from 3. He'll slot nicely into the starting lineup next year when McMahon departs, and appears to have a bright future.

    Guards: This is the weakness of the Cardinals. They really don't have a true PG. Darius Perry (6'2", 195lb) and Lamarr Kimble (6'0", 185lb) share the role as starters, though they tend to split up after the opening tip. Kimble is the more PG-ish of the two, but still not a great PG. Kimble is not overly athletic, but he's smart and tough. Not unlike Alvarado from Ga Tech, although he's a bit more stout and less athletic. Kimble is very much a role player for the Cards, more scrappy than good. Perry is sort of the opposite. He's more athletic than Kimble, and similarly tough, but not as savvy. In terms of production, they both give about the same. The two combine for about 10 points and 7.5 assists in 43 minutes, which is capable but not great PG play.

    If we can turn them over, we stand a good chance of winning. If they can consistently get the ball into their halfcourt set, we may be in trouble. It's gonna be an interesting test for the team. Unfortunate that we won't be at full strength for this one.

  3. #3
    Pressing with Jones and Goldwire really challenged Louisville in the second half last year. They have not responded well on offense to teams with aggressive guards, like Kentucky. I expect we will see a lot of Jones and Goldwire in this one. Since both Goldwire and White are starting to hit their 3's, it presents an interesting matchup for Duke. If the two are hitting their shots, Duke's offense can work.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Pressing with Jones and Goldwire really challenged Louisville in the second half last year. They have not responded well on offense to teams with aggressive guards, like Kentucky. I expect we will see a lot of Jones and Goldwire in this one. Since both Goldwire and White are starting to hit their 3's, it presents an interesting matchup for Duke. If the two are hitting their shots, Duke's offense can work.
    Same cast of characters playing a team that has seen how to exploit us. Joey may be back but is he enough? My hope is that Hurt will come back and play better and Javin can give us some good minutes.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Louisville Stats!

    Here are some stats on this years Louisville team:

    Starters by games started: Nwora-17, Perry-17, Sutton=17, Enoch-17, McMahon-13, Kimble-4
    Players and mpg.: Nwora-33, Sutton-33, McMahon-28, Perry-23, Enoch-22, Kimble-21, Williams-18, Williamson-14
    Players pts per game: Nwora-20.4, Enoch-10.8, Sutton-9.2, McMahon-9.0, Williams-7.5, Perry-5.5, Kimble, 4.8, Williamson-4.5

    Team facts:
    Points per game= 74.6, Points allowed=61.6

    Rebounds per game= 40...offensive rebounds per game-11, defensive rebounds per game-29. Leading rebounders; Sutton-9.1, Nwora-7.4, Enoch-6.8, Williams-6.4
    Sutton- 2.9 orbpg, Nwora-2.0

    Team blocks per game-2.9,
    Steals per game-4.8,
    Turnovers 12.2
    Three point %-.382I
    FT%- .713

    It looks like Perry and Kimble are the two weakest players for the Cards but we'll have our hands full with Nwora and Sutton. Enoch looks to be a good inside player that can hurt us as well. Keeping them off the 3 point line(38%) and off the FT line(71%) will be key. I hope we can turn those guards over(Perry and Kimble) because that could mean the difference in winning or losing this important game. I have confidence that Tre and Jordan are up to the task.

    My prediction for starting lineup: Tre, Jordan, Vernon, Cassius and Jack. No prediction on who wins.

    GoDuke!

  6. #6
    Home court advantage may be the difference maker on this one. Need our sixth man to help keep tough pressure on their perimeter. Should be a great battle. I think we'll miss having Moore to guard Nwora, but no excuses!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Home court advantage may be the difference maker on this one. Need our sixth man to help keep tough pressure on their perimeter. Should be a great battle. I think we'll miss having Moore to guard Nwora, but no excuses!
    hopefully we won't be down 22 in this one...
    1200. DDMF.

  8. #8
    Anyone have a stat on K's record vs Louisville ?
       

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Pghdukie View Post
    Anyone have a stat on K's record vs Louisville ?
    6-6, but on a 3-game winning streak.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  10. #10
    This feels like a matchup problem for us. Their bigs are good, and Vernon has to stay out of foul trouble. Jack guarding Nwora seems to make the most sense. Looking for big games from Tre and Cassius, with the latter hopefully containing Sutton.

    Worried about this one, but glad we’re at home. Expect to see a good amount of press. Go Duke!
       

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    This feels like a matchup problem for us. Their bigs are good, and Vernon has to stay out of foul trouble. Jack guarding Nwora seems to make the most sense. Looking for big games from Tre and Cassius, with the latter hopefully containing Sutton.

    Worried about this one, but glad we’re at home. Expect to see a good amount of press. Go Duke!
    The leading rebounders are Nwora(7.4) and Sutton(9.1), the wings. Enoch their big is 3rd with 6.8 per game. However I do worry about the Louisville bigs doing to Vernon what Clemson's 4 & 5 did to him. I agree on Jack and Cassius being on Nwora and Sutton. I hope Tre and Jordan can make Perry, Kimble & McMahon turn the ball over. I believe keeping Louisville off the offensive glass, don't let McMahon go from three and creating turnovers will go along way in beating the Cards.

    GoDuke!

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    St Augustine, FL
    Hoping for big games from our big 4: Vernon, Matt, Javin and Jack. I believe they have something they want to prove.
       

  13. #13
    Going to be a very tough game. Hopefully Baker will back. It will helpful to be at home- perhaps Hurt will be more comfortable. Louisville will be looking to make a statement. Duke will need to be ready for a fight.
       

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Going to be a very tough game. Hopefully Baker will back. It will helpful to be at home- perhaps Hurt will be more comfortable. Louisville will be looking to make a statement. Duke will need to be ready for a fight.
    I am hoping that Hurt will be more Hurt-ful to Louisville.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  15. #15
    I think I'll re-watch the last half of last year's game and enjoy the Jones/Goldwire/Zion lock-down defense and epic comeback before Saturday. The cherry on top was RJ passing the ball back between his legs so Cam could drill the dagger 3. There as no quit in that team.

  16. #16
    I thought Wendell was supposed to be back in January.. are we talking the end of January or what?? We need our depth for this game, which will be much tougher than Clemson. What’s the status of Moore and Baker?
       

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dukebluesincebirth View Post
    I thought Wendell was supposed to be back in January.. are we talking the end of January or what?? We need our depth for this game, which will be much tougher than Clemson. What’s the status of Moore and Baker?
    Moore returning in January is a best-case scenario. Remember: it hasn’t even been two weeks since his injury yet, and it is typically a 4-6 week recovery. So, yes, think end of January as a best-case scenario.

  18. #18
    any chance of Baker in this one?

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by AZLA View Post
    I think I'll re-watch the last half of last year's game...
    For anyone wanting the condensed version of the comeback, here ya go. I have to confess that I had given up on the game when we went down 20. I hoped that the rest of the game could provide a learning experience and just wanted the team to show some fight and not give up. Then we just kept turning them over and crept closer and closer back into it.


  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    For anyone wanting the condensed version of the comeback, here ya go. I have to confess that I had given up on the game when we went down 20. I hoped that the rest of the game could provide a learning experience and just wanted the team to show some fight and not give up. Then we just kept turning them over and crept closer and closer back into it.

    Jordan Goldwire's energy and defense played a big part in that victory. GoDuke!

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