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  1. #1

    MBB: Bracketology 2019-20

    http://bracketmatrix.com/

    As of the 12/15 update on Bracket Matrix (which is the most current update at the time of this post), Duke is the third #1 seed right now, if you believe in the "wisdom of the crowds" approach the Matrix uses to simulate what the Selection Committee does.

    I bet us being a 1-seed surprises some people on here, but remember, the win over Kansas (currently a #1 seed) and the road win over Michigan St (currently a #4 seed but should improve as Izzo's teams get better as the season progresses) are terrific wins to have on the resume.

  2. #2
    From wikipedia, here are the sites for the first and second-round games of the NCAA tournament:





    And here are the regionals:




    The goal quite obviously should be to take a cushy Greensboro --> NYC (MSG) --> Atlanta path to the Final Four.

    Since Ohio St would probably go to Indianapolis and Kansas would probably go to Houston, that path I mentioned should be Duke's path as of right now based on the Bracket Matrix seeds.

    Let's continue playing well this season.

  3. #3
    Join Date
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    Thanks, TM.

    While it's obviously tough to pick the field and seeding at this stage, the preferred path seems clear. My second choice for the opening rounds would probably be Albany under the thesis that it's a second tier location with less reason for the huge "hater" fanbases of big-time teams to travel there and pick up their pitchforks against us. That said, we will get that anywhere we go - but maybe (just maybe) less so in Albany.

    Unfortunately, I doubt the Duke staff would pick that location for us if someone leapfrogged into Greensboro. Likewise, I doubt we'd be put there by the Committee unless we drop out of the Top 16 and it just happens to fall out that way.

    - Chillin

  4. #4
    Heels are currently a #6 seed, but the forward thinking teamrankings.com site has them as an 11! Christmas is coming early this year!

    NC State is in the first four out...so clearly the Grinch came early as well.

  5. #5
    Haha, fyi, it was a moderator that wrote/added "way too early" in the thread title. As long-time readers will know, I love talking bracketology and can do it any time of the season.

    Let me say this. We have a thread dedicated to discussing the weekly polls, and I don't see much of a difference between that and checking once a week to see where the bracketologists currently have Duke seeded. As more games are played, both the polls and the brackets will change to accomodate the latest results. It's just that one of those two things is more relevant to everyone's end goal of doing well in the NCAA tournament. So, at least for me, I care more that Duke currently has the resume of a 1 seed than that Duke is currently #4 in the AP poll or whatever.

    As always, your mileage could vary.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
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    Hillsborough,nc
    That assumes we make the tournament.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Rickshaw View Post
    That assumes we make the tournament.
    Nope, if our resume declines as we play more games, we'll start to slide down the Matrix and if we play really bad, we'll slide out of the projected field into "First Four Out" / "Next Four Out" territory and then eventually we'll slide off the bubble, too.

    But if the tournament started today, Duke would likely be a 1 seed.

  8. #8
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    Current CBS bracket. Sure, they have us at a 2. But the real interesting part — Kentucky in the first four out, and UNC not even that high.

    https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

    They explain: https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...et-projection/
    "We're only tourists in this life
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  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Current CBS bracket. Sure, they have us at a 2. But the real interesting part — Kentucky in the first four out, and UNC not even that high.

    https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

    Would be a fun NIT. They explain: https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...et-projection/
    That’s frankly stupid clickbait for Kentucky

  10. #10
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    With the churning in the top teams, I think the tournament this year will be one of the most interesting in recent years. Instead of a favorite or two, there could be 10 teams with a legitimate shot at the title. As long as Duke is in the mix, I will be happy.
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  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil16 View Post
    That’s frankly stupid clickbait for Kentucky
    I agree that Kentucky should be in the Field of 64. That being said, their resume is looking pretty weak at the moment and they will not have many more opportunities to rack up signature wins in conference. The SEC looked like it was going to be a tough league after last season and the addition of Kerry Blackshear to the roster at Florida. Now the conference looks like it might struggle to get more than 4 bids. UK plays Louisville on Saturday. After that, they have a non-conference matchup at Texas Tech in late January. They need to win one of those games to get a 5 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. As it is right now, T-Rank projects them to be somewhere near an 9 seed. Another way of thinking about it is that they are closer to the bubble than they are of being favored to reach the Sweet 16.

  12. #12
    Looking at the latest Matrix released on 1/1/2020: http://bracketmatrix.com/

    One interesting thing is that the 2-seeds all have an "average seed" of 2.x, meaning they are closer to being a 3 seed than a 1 seed. Often, you will see a 2 seed that has an "average seed" of 1.7 or 1.8, for example, meaning they are between a 1 seed and a 2 seed.

    What this means is that as of today, the four #1 seeds -- Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Ohio St -- are the four obvious #1 seeds based on current resumes according to the collective wisdom of a bunch of bracketologists. (Obviously resumes will change and things will shift around as more games are played).

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Looking at the latest Matrix released on 1/1/2020: http://bracketmatrix.com/

    One interesting thing is that the 2-seeds all have an "average seed" of 2.x, meaning they are closer to being a 3 seed than a 1 seed. Often, you will see a 2 seed that has an "average seed" of 1.7 or 1.8, for example, meaning they are between a 1 seed and a 2 seed.

    What this means is that as of today, the four #1 seeds -- Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Ohio St -- are the four obvious #1 seeds based on current resumes according to the collective wisdom of a bunch of bracketologists. (Obviously resumes will change and things will shift around as more games are played).
    Thanks!

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  14. #14
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Looking at the latest Matrix released on 1/1/2020: http://bracketmatrix.com/

    One interesting thing is that the 2-seeds all have an "average seed" of 2.x, meaning they are closer to being a 3 seed than a 1 seed. Often, you will see a 2 seed that has an "average seed" of 1.7 or 1.8, for example, meaning they are between a 1 seed and a 2 seed.

    What this means is that as of today, the four #1 seeds -- Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Ohio St -- are the four obvious #1 seeds based on current resumes according to the collective wisdom of a bunch of bracketologists. (Obviously resumes will change and things will shift around as more games are played).
    That's quite an interesting, albeit VERY early, development. If I were a betting man, I'd put money on three things regarding the top-line right now:
    1) Gonzaga will be there.
    2) The top ACC team will be there.
    3) The top B1G team will be there.

    Right now, obviously we're the top ACC team by resume, and Ohio State is the top B1G team, so this projection makes sense. But I wouldn't think the gap between us and Louisville, and Ohio State and (right now) Maryland, would be quite that vast. I would imagine that chasm will start to narrow as the NET rankings get more useful data from conference play.

    Side-note: if my three assumptions end up holding (which I think is reasonable considering the B1G is the consensus top conference in the league, and either us or Louisville are likely to claim a No. 1 seed as things look), the race for the fourth No. 1 seed could be interesting. Does a Kansas team that lost its two biggest non-conference tests (us and Villanova) and plays in a good, but not great, conference get that spot if they hold serve and win the conference with 5-6 total losses? Or does it go to the Big East winner, likely Villanova or Butler, if they dominate conference play? What about Oregon, who has a solid resume but (as shown by their loss last night) was probably ranked a bit too highly? Or, if none of those conferences yield a dominant champion, might the B1G or ACC get a second No. 1 seed?

    With the "flatness" of the field this year, Selection Sunday could be the wildest in recent memory.
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    With the "flatness" of the field this year, Selection Sunday could be the wildest in recent memory.
    Well, that's the interesting thing I alluded to. While I'm a believer in the parity of this season -- i.e. if Duke is a 1 seed, I won't feel like we're much better than our 4/5 seed or necessarily even our 8/9 seed -- that doesn't mean that parity of resumes will occur. Because, for example...

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    But I wouldn't think the gap between us and Louisville, and Ohio State and (right now) Maryland, would be quite that vast. I would imagine that chasm will start to narrow as the NET rankings get more useful data from conference play.
    ... in the case of Duke, none of those teams you listed has any wins that are on the level of beating Kansas neutral and Michigan St on the road.

    They are teams that might very well be just as good (maybe better) than Duke, but our resume is superior. I'm wondering if despite the parity in quality of teams, we won't have parity in resumes in March. Too early to project that, of course. Still, as of today, there are 4 teams that stand out for the #1 seeds apparently.

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    That's quite an interesting, albeit VERY early, development. If I were a betting man, I'd put money on three things regarding the top-line right now:
    1) Gonzaga will be there.
    2) The top ACC team will be there.
    3) The top B1G team will be there.
    It could be shaky if MSU wins the Big 10 (which kenpom projects them to do). Not sure if they can overcome the 3 early season losses. If Ohio St wins the Big 10, I'd agree with you.

  16. #16
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Well, with Ohio State about to blow it at home to a down Wisconsin team, we may already have to throw all this out the window... wow.

    Obviously I’m partisan, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens if Michigan wins the B1G. If they win the “best conference” and have a non-conference win against Gonzaga, possibly the NET No. 1, that could be hard to deny. Could be a situation like a few years back when Kansas had 6-7 losses, but the Big 12 was held in such high esteem that they still got to the top line.

    Things are gonna be interesting.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Well, with Ohio State about to blow it at home to a down Wisconsin team, we may already have to throw all this out the window... wow.

    Obviously I’m partisan, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens if Michigan wins the B1G. If they win the “best conference” and have a non-conference win against Gonzaga, possibly the NET No. 1, that could be hard to deny. Could be a situation like a few years back when Kansas had 6-7 losses, but the Big 12 was held in such high esteem that they still got to the top line.

    Things are gonna be interesting.
    Y'know, if Duke just wins every game for the rest of the season, I think the seeding will take care of itself. Totally practical.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Y'know, if Duke just wins every game for the rest of the season, I think the seeding will take care of itself. Totally practical.
    Make it so. I’m okay with this.
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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    But I wouldn't think the gap between us and Louisville, and Ohio State and (right now) Maryland, would be quite that vast.
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    ...none of those teams you listed has any wins that are on the level of beating Kansas neutral and Michigan St on the road.
    Admittedly, it would be very difficult to beat Duke's pair of wins over the #2 and #4 KenPom teams. Kentucky has wins over #4 and #5.

    Ohio State has two straight losses and plays at Maryland next, but their best wins are at home (by 25) over Villanova and a neutral win (by 6) over Kentucky. That's probably the third best pair of wins in the country. Unfortunately for them, their big road win in Chapel Hill (also by 25) has become increasingly irrelevant.

    Maryland has no road wins (losing at Penn State and Seton Hall), and their best win is against Marquette (KenPom #33) in the Orlando Invitational.

    Louisville's home win vs. Michigan is still their best, though I should also praise their win at Miami, at least for the next 24 hours.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post

    And here are the regionals:




    The goal quite obviously should be to take a cushy Greensboro --> NYC (MSG) --> Atlanta path to the Final Four.
    We did just fine going through Houston in 2015. That was also the last time I was able to attend a game(before that was the Final Four in Indy when I lived in Cincinnati). Having been an undergrad for '91 and '92, what I'm saying is that you want me at those games, you need me at those games.

    *I did attend the 2005-06 ACC Tournament(a win) and the 2009 shellacking by Vilanova, so I'm not 100% successful.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

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