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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    What are the chances NCSU gets us once in the next month?
    about 1 in 3.
    1200. DDMF.

  2. #42
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    updates

    obvioulsy with duke's win and UL's loss, duke now controls its destiny to the 1 seed and outright regular season.

    Pitt joined Wake, Miami, and UNC in being eliminated from everything.

    5 teams with 8 losses can still share the regular season title, and the tiebreaking scenarios are still too numerous for the 1 seed.

    Thinking of tiebreakers, it's unlikely that any other than duke, UL , and FSU are involved in a tiebreaker, and the scenarios are as follows:

    Duke vs UL: UL by virtue of head to head win
    Duke vs FSU: Duke by virtue of head to head win
    UL vs FSU: FSU if FSU wins next week over UL, otherwise UL by virtue of their win against Duke
    All three: Whomever wins the UL/FSU game next week will have a 2-1 record among the group and will be the 1 seed. Duke will be the 2 seed in all cases.

    In terms of Byes, without GT, there will only be 2 games on day 1, pitting 14-11 and 13-12. UNC and Wake are eliminated from double-bye contention.
    1200. DDMF.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Duke vs UL: UL by virtue of head to head win
    Duke vs FSU: Duke by virtue of head to head win
    UL vs FSU: FSU if FSU wins next week over UL, otherwise UL by virtue of their win against Duke
    All three: Whomever wins the UL/FSU game next week will have a 2-1 record among the group and will be the 1 seed. Duke will be the 2 seed in all cases.
    updates updates!

    so obviously, with our loss, we no longer are in the drivers seat for the 1 seed...but still control our destiny for a share, along with UL and FSU (though obviously, without extenuating circumstances, one of whom will play their way out of that seat).

    ASSUMING duke FSU and UL win out but for the FSU/UL game, obviously we prefer FSU to beat UL, as we have the tiebreaker (the full scenarios listed above)

    Only the top 4 can still get a share of the title (worst case 14-6) or the 1 seed. Everyone else is eliminated

    In terms of seeding:

    Clinched double bye:
    The three at the top have clinched double byes, with possible finishes of 14-6 which only UVA can top. UVA, despite having a cool 3 game lead can still fall into the wednesday slot with 4 left to play. I'm not going to dig through the tiebreaking scenarios yet.

    Clinched Bye:
    The math on UVA is a bit tricky. In a worst case scenario, they can finish 11-9. You might say "HEY! but if GT finishes 11-9, UVA has a tiebreak, putting them 8th at worst!" Well, you'd be wrong. If all of GT, UVA, and NCSU finish at 11-9, then UVA is 1-1, GT is 2-1, and NCSU is 1-2, and GT can pass UVA in the standings. But in such a case, UVA would be in front of clemson and state anyway. So one of the 5 teams 8-8/7-9 must finish behind UVA, guaranteeing them at least a bye. In reality, they'll almost assuredly get a double bye...but that's not locked up yet. Also, GT isn't eligible anyway, so none of that math really matters. Along from that, there are too many crappy teams in the ACC for anyone else to be locking up a bye right now, though obviously the gaggle at 8-8 have the fighting chance.

    Clinched playing on tuesday:
    UNC. world's. smallest. violin.

    tl;dr: UNC must play on tuesday, duke won't play until thursday.
    1200. DDMF.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Clinched Bye:
    The math on UVA is a bit tricky. In a worst case scenario, they can finish 11-9. You might say "HEY! but if GT finishes 11-9, UVA has a tiebreak, putting them 8th at worst!" Well, you'd be wrong. If all of GT, UVA, and NCSU finish at 11-9, then UVA is 1-1, GT is 2-1, and NCSU is 1-2, and GT can pass UVA in the standings. But in such a case, UVA would be in front of clemson and state anyway. So one of the 5 teams 8-8/7-9 must finish behind UVA, guaranteeing them at least a bye. In reality, they'll almost assuredly get a double bye...but that's not locked up yet. Also, GT isn't eligible anyway, so none of that math really matters. Along from that, there are too many crappy teams in the ACC for anyone else to be locking up a bye right now, though obviously the gaggle at 8-8 have the fighting chance.

    Clinched playing on tuesday:
    UNC. world's. smallest. violin.

    tl;dr: UNC must play on tuesday, duke won't play until thursday.
    I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?
    I thought that was true as well. If that is the case then UNC only needs to pass two teams to get to the #12 seed in the ACCT. In the loss column they are currently one game behind Wake and two games behind Miami and Pitt with four games left to play. I haven't looked at all of the combinations of which teams play each other, but it feels like they still mathematically have a shot at the first round bye.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?
    They have filed an appeal and AFAIK that appeal has not been ruled upon by the NCAA yet. So at the current time they are still eligible to pay in Greensboro.
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    ...
    and NCSU finish at 11-9, then UVA is 1-1, GT is 2-1, and NCSU is 1-2, and GT can pass UVA in the standings. But in such a case, UVA would be in front of clemson and state anyway. So one of the 5 teams 8-8/7-9 must finish behind UVA, guaranteeing them at least a bye. In reality, they'll almost assuredly get a double bye...but that's not locked up yet. Also, GT isn't eligible anyway, so none of that math really matters. Along from that, there are too many crappy teams in the ACC for anyone else to be locking up a bye right now, though obviously the gaggle at 8-8 have the fighting chance.
    ...
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?
    I thought that was correct, but apparently penalties are stayed pending appeal. Shrug. Given the NCAA's overall incompetence, I expect we'll get a decision in 8 years or so, and if you just appeal indefinitely, there'll be no penalty anyway.
    1200. DDMF.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I am probably wrong about this, but isn't GT ineligible for the ACC Tournament by virtue of its ineligibility to play in the NCAA Tournament? Or did the Jackets wriggle off the hook for 2020 by an appeal?
    If GaTech is ineligible for the ACC tourneys, do their games count for standings and tiebreakers?

    -jk

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    If GaTech is ineligible for the ACC tourneys, do their games count for standings and tiebreakers?

    -jk
    I can't imagine they'd adjust everyone's record to remove the game against GT...but wonder about tiebreaks as well.

    If you include GT, and then remove them and just bump everyone's seed, then it has the potential to flip the ordering of two other teams if there is a 3 way tiebreak...which is undesirable.

    If you DON'T include them if tied, then how do you resolve the "record against teams from top to bottom" as the secondary tiebreak? Do you just skip over games against GT in THAT case? That's a bit weird given you have a record against them...and if they're in the standings, then you'd have to involve them in tiebreaks of their own.

    We're it me, I'd say their record stays, but you don't use them in any tiebreaks they are involved in, but you DO use them for tiebreaking OTHER teams with whom they don't have the same record. It's a bit weird also as they're half involved in tiebreaks...but I don't think there's an optimal outcome here.

    Given the ambiguity that the ACC's tiebreaking procedures have had from time to time, it's unsurprising that they don't necessarily explicitly handle this case and will probably YOLO it by whatever they see fit.
    1200. DDMF.

  10. #50
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    Breaking!

    duke now controls the destiny to the 1 seed. In the event of a 3 way tie, FSU is the 1 seed and duke is the 2. Duke and FSU have approximately the same expected number of wins the rest of the way.
    1200. DDMF.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    duke now controls the destiny to the 1 seed. In the event of a 3 way tie, FSU is the 1 seed and duke is the 2. Duke and FSU have approximately the same expected number of wins the rest of the way.
    How does the seeding work in a 3-way tie situation?

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShaneRyan View Post
    How does the seeding work in a 3-way tie situation?
    Pretty sure you know this, but head to head record against the other two is the first tie breaker. So if Duke and Louisville were to win out while FSU drops a game, there would be a three way tie but FSU gets the #1 seed by virtue of being 2-1 against the other two schools. Duke is 1-1 and Louisville is 1-2.

    The only way we get the #1 is if both FSU and Louisville lose another game (and we win out). Given the remaining schedules it is more likely that Louisville drops a game than FSU, which would bump us up to #2 but not a huge impact.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Pretty sure you know this, but head to head record against the other two is the first tie breaker. So if Duke and Louisville were to win out while FSU drops a game, there would be a three way tie but FSU gets the #1 seed by virtue of being 2-1 against the other two schools. Duke is 1-1 and Louisville is 1-2.

    The only way we get the #1 is if both FSU and Louisville lose another game (and we win out). Given the remaining schedules it is more likely that Louisville drops a game than FSU, which would bump us up to #2 but not a huge impact.
    I will be following FSU/Clemson with great interest.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Pretty sure you know this, but head to head record against the other two is the first tie breaker. So if Duke and Louisville were to win out while FSU drops a game, there would be a three way tie but FSU gets the #1 seed by virtue of being 2-1 against the other two schools. Duke is 1-1 and Louisville is 1-2.

    The only way we get the #1 is if both FSU and Louisville lose another game (and we win out). Given the remaining schedules it is more likely that Louisville drops a game than FSU, which would bump us up to #2 but not a huge impact.
    Got it. yeah, my question was how they determine the seeds in case of a 3-way tie. A little ridiculous, since Duke never had a chance to go 2-1, but oh well, gotta earn it outright.

  15. #55
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    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Back in play! What a crazy finish and incredible play by Clemson at the end.

    Let’s do our part tonight!!!

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Back in play! What a crazy finish and incredible play by Clemson at the end.

    Let’s do our part tonight!!!
    Crazy finish indeed. FSU gets a steal breakaway to take a 1 point lead with about 18 seconds left, but wait... inadvertent whistle. Still, alternating possession awards FSU the ball and they end up scoring anyway. Now, FSU actually leads by one with about 7-8 seconds left. Clemson runs the other way and makes a toughly contested lay-in with 1 sec left. FSU's full court heave misses badly. Tigers win.

    I'm sure some Noles fans will want to complain about the inadvertent whistle, but it actually ended up benefiting them as they eventually took the lead anyway with way LESS time for Clemson to score. Credit to the Tigers, they were able to score anyway. Noles have to come up with one more stop and couldn't do it.

    Louisville, FSU, Duke and (unbelievably) UVA all alive for the 1 seed in the conf tourney. This is more like the ACC baskatball I remember. Hope a pretty middling noncon and bleh Jan/early Feb turns into a terrific March.

  17. #57
    We could get a share of the ACC regular season title if we win all our remaining games and if louisville do too, but I believe the tie breaker is with them as they beat us?

    So I guess that means we will still end up with a #2 seed in the ACC tournament and have to go through FSU most likely.

  18. #58
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    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Regardless of the seeding, a tie for the best record in the regular season = a banner. Which is a great accomplishment, period

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehk View Post
    We could get a share of the ACC regular season title if we win all our remaining games and if louisville do too, but I believe the tie breaker is with them as they beat us?

    So I guess that means we will still end up with a #2 seed in the ACC tournament and have to go through FSU most likely.
    Nope, FSU wins the tiebreaker because they were 2-1 combined against Duke and Lville. Duke was 1-1 vs the other two. Lville was 1-2.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Regardless of the seeding, a tie for the best record in the regular season = a banner. Which is a great accomplishment, period
    It would be nice to get a share of a regular season title since we haven't accomplished that since 2010.

    Still, just based on experience, Duke fans will be very upset/sad if we don't make the Final Four. It's really all about the NCAA tourney.

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