MBB: Duke v Miami (Sat, 1/4, 8:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

Duke looks to keep it going during the early part of the ACC schedule as the Blue Devils start the new year and decade off in Coral Gables, Florida to take on the Miami Hurricanes. The game was moved to 8:00 p.m. on Saturday evening, so set your clocks accordingly.

Miami began the season with a home blowout loss to Louisville (with 10 minutes to go, UofL was up 30 before letting off the gas and allowing Miami to make up 17 points of that deficit). The Hurricanes then lost back-to-back blowouts to Florida and UConn in the Charleston Classic. Since then, Miami has reeled off 5 straight wins, including a pretty decent Temple team and an overtime victory at Clemson on Tuesday night.

Jim Larranaga's Miami team has a potent offense fueled by the diminutive Chris Lykes (5'7"). The JR PG is quick as can be and fearless attacking the rim or pulling up from all over the court. He is flanked by excellent shooting guards in SR Dejan Vasilijevic (6'3") and JR Kameron McGusty (6'5"). All three are willing and accurate shooters with Vasilijevic making 46.7% of his 3-point attempts. Miami runs a lot of iso ball. They are near the bottom in assist rate, forcing teams to match up with one of their three guards. Behind the upperclassmen, a pair of freshmen guards, Harold Beverly (6'4") and Isaiah Wong (6'3") will provide spot minutes.

Up front, Miami boasts a big but not overly impressive group of post players. The lead F/C is 6'10" JR Sam Waardenburg, who hails from New Zealand. Waardenburg will take a couple of 3-point attempts and hits them at a decent rate. He is 7-20 from 2 on the season (35.0%). He's more likely to attempt a layup or putback, though. Miami also trots out 7'0" SR Rodney Miller, Jr. and rugged 6'8" SR Keith Stone, a transfer from Florida. Freshman SF Anthony Walker (6'9" 210 lbs.) will also see some time on the floor in the 9-man rotation. The freshmen, Beverly, Walker, and Wong, have all been a net negative when they have been on the court so far this year but give some breathing time to the upperclassmen.

Miami has been able to score the ball at a high level on the season. They do not take a ton of 3-point attempts, but they do make them at a high rate, making 38.9% as a team on the year (11th best in the nation). As a primarily jump-shooting team, they do not foul often or get to the line. And they are not a good rebounding team. In general, Miami is a below-average defensive team. They do not foul the opposing team at all but give up a ton of offensive rebounds. And there is little shot-blocking in spite of their size up front.

This is a game that Duke should win, but it is on the road. Miami could ride hot shooting to an upset. The Hurricanes do not turn the ball over, so forcing tough jumpers and securing rebounds on both ends will be key. After just missing out on a double-double, Vernon Carey, Jr. will have to put pressure on the opposing defense. On defense, Duke will need to be careful not to allow open looks from 3 and to contain Lykes, Vasilijevic, and McGusty from getting open lanes to the rim. Should Duke limit the 3-point looks and asserts itself on offense, the Blue Devils should be able to walk out of South Beach with another ACC victory.

[brevity]

Kameron McGusty is a terrific name for a Miami Hurricane. Also, their roster has two Australians and one New Zealander, presumably to neutralize Jack White.

Seriously though, I count 9 players that have at least two completed years of college experience: one redshirt senior, two seniors, three redshirt juniors, two juniors, and one redshirt sophomore.

[CDu]

Seriously though, I count 9 players that have at least two completed years of college experience: one redshirt senior, two seniors, three redshirt juniors, two juniors, and one redshirt sophomore.

In concept they have 9 veterans. But really they have 6 to go with 3 freshmen. The rest either don’t play as a walk-on (Herenton), sitting out due to transfer rules (Brooks), or are injured and out for the year (Gak). It is still a more experienced group than us, but not wildly so. We have 4 guys with 2+ years of experience to their 6.

[Saratoga2]

Duke looks to keep it going during the early part of the ACC schedule as the Blue Devils start the new year and decade off in Coral Gables, Florida to take on the Miami Hurricanes. The game was moved to 8:00 p.m. on Saturday evening, so set your clocks accordingly.

Miami began the season with a home blowout loss to Louisville (with 10 minutes to go, UofL was up 30 before letting off the gas and allowing Miami to make up 17 points of that deficit). The Hurricanes then lost back-to-back blowouts to Florida and UConn in the Charleston Classic. Since then, Miami has reeled off 5 straight wins, including a pretty decent Temple team and an overtime victory at Clemson on Tuesday night.

Jim Larranaga's Miami team has a potent offense fueled by the diminutive Chris Lykes (5'7"). The JR PG is quick as can be and fearless attacking the rim or pulling up from all over the court. He is flanked by excellent shooting guards in SR Dejan Vasilijevic (6'3") and JR Kameron McGusty (6'5"). All three are willing and accurate shooters with Vasilijevic making 46.7% of his 3-point attempts. Miami runs a lot of iso ball. They are near the bottom in assist rate, forcing teams to match up with one of their three guards. Behind the upperclassmen, a pair of freshmen guards, Harold Beverly (6'4") and Isaiah Wong (6'3") will provide spot minutes.

Up front, Miami boasts a big but not overly impressive group of post players. The lead F/C is 6'10" JR Sam Waardenburg, who hails from New Zealand. Waardenburg will take a couple of 3-point attempts and hits them at a decent rate. He is 7-20 from 2 on the season (35.0%). He's more likely to attempt a layup or putback, though. Miami also trots out 7'0" SR Rodney Miller, Jr. and rugged 6'8" SR Keith Stone, a transfer from Florida. Freshman SF Anthony Walker (6'9" 210 lbs.) will also see some time on the floor in the 9-man rotation. The freshmen, Beverly, Walker, and Wong, have all been a net negative when they have been on the court so far this year but give some breathing time to the upperclassmen.



Miami has been able to score the ball at a high level on the season. They do not take a ton of 3-point attempts, but they do make them at a high rate, making 38.9% as a team on the year (11th best in the nation). As a primarily jump-shooting team, they do not foul often or get to the line. And they are not a good rebounding team. In general, Miami is a below-average defensive team. They do not foul the opposing team at all but give up a ton of offensive rebounds. And there is little shot-blocking in spite of their size up front.

This is a game that Duke should win, but it is on the road. Miami could ride hot shooting to an upset. The Hurricanes do not turn the ball over, so forcing tough jumpers and securing rebounds on both ends will be key. After just missing out on a double-double, Vernon Carey, Jr. will have to put pressure on the opposing defense. On defense, Duke will need to be careful not to allow open looks from 3 and to contain Lykes, Vasilijevic, and McGusty from getting open lanes to the rim. Should Duke limit the 3-point looks and asserts itself on offense, the Blue Devils should be able to walk out of South Beach with another ACC victory.

So what is our best matchup against what they put on the floor? Carey and Jones for sure, but who are the others? Stanley, Hurt and Moore? We need to contain their guards while rebounding and we need scoring potential. Be interesting to see what coach K thinks. Maybe we just use our depth the keep pressure on them for 40 minutes.

[Fish80]

So what is our best matchup against what they put on the floor? Carey and Jones for sure, but who are the others? Stanley, Hurt and Moore? We need to contain their guards while rebounding and we need scoring potential. Be interesting to see what coach K thinks. Maybe we just use our depth the keep pressure on them for 40 minutes.

Yes, we use our depth. Play 10 guys 10+ minutes. By the end of the first half, they will be flummoxed out of their underamor.

[ndkjr70]

As a recent Miami grad (but born and raised Duke fan — thanks to my alum mom and dad) the Watsco Center (formerly Bank United Center) has been somewhat of a house of horrors for me. I’ve only seen Duke win there once; thanks to Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. I was in the building for the blowout when we were ranked #1, I was in the building for the slow and hideous death during that ugly stretch in Grayson’s junior year, and I was in the building two years ago when, after a late Grayson Allen scratch, Duke couldn’t hit water if they jumped out of a boat.

My freshman year, I went to the game dressed head to toe in canes gear. I told myself “this is my new school now. I have to pull for them.” And then Duke made an early basket and I instinctively leapt out of my chair and clapped. So much for that.

I will be there again this year, wearing what I’ve recently discovered to be a happy medium. Black shirt, gray shorts. University of Miami socks and my 2015 Duke Natty hat. I can’t quite pull myself to wear all Duke equipment, but I’m thinking of leaning that way considering how things have gone for me in the past.

[MChambers]

With the ACC being down this year (one of the worst seasons I can remember, at least in terms of number of teams in the top 30 or so in the rankings), games like this on the road are a key to winning (or not) the regular season championship. And, yes, there is such a thing.

Although Duke is favored in this game, T-Rank only gives Duke a 74% chance of winning. That's the fourth lowest chance of winning remaining on Duke's schedule, with home against Louisville, at NC State, and at Virginia predicted to be tougher games. At Syracuse (75%) and at UNC (76%) are also predicted to be relatively tough games. Obviously, as Stephen F. Austin showed, every game counts, but games like at Miami will be very important for Duke's chances of finishing first in the regular season.

[CDu]

So what is our best matchup against what they put on the floor? Carey and Jones for sure, but who are the others? Stanley, Hurt and Moore? We need to contain their guards while rebounding and we need scoring potential. Be interesting to see what coach K thinks. Maybe we just use our depth the keep pressure on them for 40 minutes.

Vasiljevic just requires someone disciplined enough to stay home on him at the 3pt line. He is a shooter, plain and simple. About 2/3 of his shots are from 3.

Lykes is dynamic but tiny. I would expect Jones to take that assignment just like last year. McGusty will fall to Stanley and Moore, and they should do fine on him. Ditto Beverly.

Their bigs are not terribly concerning offensively. Either of White or Hurt can guard Waardenburg, and neither Miller nor Stone provide much offensive firepower either.

If I was to be concerned, I would put out our better defensive lineup and contain Lykes and McGusty. Because Miami is atrocious defensively. Like, possibly the worst power-6 school on defense. I would expect Carey and White to have a field day on the glass, and we should be able to find buckets against them.

The only real concern is keeping their guards from getting crazy. Lykes - when on - can be an absolute nightmare. He is fearless and can make crazy shots. Vasiljevic can bury you from 3 if not guarded closely. McGusty is capable of scoring from all over as well. Keep those two to normal games and don’t lose track of Vasiljevic and we should win by double digits like UF, UConn, and Louisville did. Let those guys get confidence and it could be a dogfight.

[SkyBrickey]

With their strong guard lineup, this may be a game where we see Goldwire playing some alongside Tre to give Tre a breather on Lykes. This will likely be a hard fought game. We will have to stay mentally tough and composed to come out with a W.

[jv001]

Vasiljevic just requires someone disciplined enough to stay home on him at the 3pt line. He is a shooter, plain and simple. About 2/3 of his shots are from 3.

Lykes is dynamic but tiny. I would expect Jones to take that assignment just like last year. McGusty will fall to Stanley and Moore, and they should do fine on him. Ditto Beverly.

Their bigs are not terribly concerning offensively. Either of White or Hurt can guard Waardenburg, and neither Miller nor Stone provide much offensive firepower either.

If I was to be concerned, I would put out our better defensive lineup and contain Lykes and McGusty. Because Miami is atrocious defensively. Like, possibly the worst power-6 school on defense. I would expect Carey and White to have a field day on the glass, and we should be able to find buckets against them.

The only real concern is keeping their guards from getting crazy. Lykes - when on - can be an absolute nightmare. He is fearless and can make crazy shots. Vasiljevic can bury you from 3 if not guarded closely. McGusty is capable of scoring from all over as well. Keep those two to normal games and don’t lose track of Vasiljevic and we should win by double digits like UF, UConn, and Louisville did. Let those guys get confidence and it could be a dogfight.

I watched part of Miami vs. Clemson and Lykes was terrific and as you said, he's fearless. Vasiljevic hit a great 3 pointer toward the end to tie the game. If I remember correctly, the announcer said that was his 5th three of the game. Those two guys look to carry the load on offense for the Hurricanes. I'm hoping we come out hot and don't let the crowd into the game. GoDuke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

With the ACC being down this year (one of the worst seasons I can remember, at least in terms of number of teams in the top 30 or so in the rankings), games like this on the road are a key to winning (or not) the regular season championship. And, yes, there is such a thing.

Strong disagree.

Ask yourself or anyone who has had a better decade, Duke or Kansas? Kansas has won the regular season in their conference 9 out of 10 years. Their fans would trade places with what Duke has done 10 times out of 10.

[uh_no]

With the ACC being down this year (one of the worst seasons I can remember, at least in terms of number of teams in the top 30 or so in the rankings), games like this on the road are a key to winning (or not) the regular season championship. And, yes, there is such a thing.

Although Duke is favored in this game, T-Rank only gives Duke a 74% chance of winning. That's the fourth lowest chance of winning remaining on Duke's schedule, with home against Louisville, at NC State, and at Virginia predicted to be tougher games. At Syracuse (75%) and at UNC (76%) are also predicted to be relatively tough games. Obviously, as Stephen F. Austin showed, every game counts, but games like at Miami will be very important for Duke's chances of finishing first in the regular season.

KP is far more optimistic....81%

[DavidBenAkiva]

Vasiljevic just requires someone disciplined enough to stay home on him at the 3pt line. He is a shooter, plain and simple. About 2/3 of his shots are from 3.

Lykes is dynamic but tiny. I would expect Jones to take that assignment just like last year. McGusty will fall to Stanley and Moore, and they should do fine on him. Ditto Beverly.

Their bigs are not terribly concerning offensively. Either of White or Hurt can guard Waardenburg, and neither Miller nor Stone provide much offensive firepower either.

If I was to be concerned, I would put out our better defensive lineup and contain Lykes and McGusty. Because Miami is atrocious defensively. Like, possibly the worst power-6 school on defense. I would expect Carey and White to have a field day on the glass, and we should be able to find buckets against them.

The only real concern is keeping their guards from getting crazy. Lykes - when on - can be an absolute nightmare. He is fearless and can make crazy shots. Vasiljevic can bury you from 3 if not guarded closely. McGusty is capable of scoring from all over as well. Keep those two to normal games and don’t lose track of Vasiljevic and we should win by double digits like UF, UConn, and Louisville did. Let those guys get confidence and it could be a dogfight.

Good points all around, CDu. This Miami team reminds me a little of Wofford. The terriers only attempted about 9 3-pointers in the first half against Duke. They shot the ball well, but the volume wasn't there enough to keep up with Duke. And Miami doesn't attempt all that many 3-pointers, ranking 226th in the nation in 3-point rate. It should be relatively easy to force them off the line and rely on the bigs to contest shots.

[uh_no]

Strong disagree.

Ask yourself or anyone who has had a better decade, Duke or Kansas? Kansas has won the regular season in their conference 9 out of 10 years. Their fans would trade places with what Duke has done 10 times out of 10.

I'm confused. why are the existence of a regular season championship, and such a thing being lesser to other accomplishments mutually exclusive?

Perhaps you should call up K and ask him to take down all those banners that say "Regular Season" on them.

[MChambers]

Strong disagree.

Ask yourself or anyone who has had a better decade, Duke or Kansas? Kansas has won the regular season in their conference 9 out of 10 years. Their fans would trade places with what Duke has done 10 times out of 10.

Disagree with what? I simply said there is such a thing as a regular season championship. Do you disagree with that?

[CDu]

Good points all around, CDu. This Miami team reminds me a little of Wofford. The terriers only attempted about 9 3-pointers in the first half against Duke. They shot the ball well, but the volume wasn't there enough to keep up with Duke. And Miami doesn't attempt all that many 3-pointers, ranking 226th in the nation in 3-point rate. It should be relatively easy to force them off the line and rely on the bigs to contest shots.

Honestly, despite both being offense oriented and terrible defensively, I don't see much similarity between Miami and Wofford. Wofford shoots a TON of 3s (they didn't against us, but that's because we overplay the 3pt line), and doesn't have anyone who is overly dynamic with the ball. Miami shoots fairly few 3s, and has one incredibly dynamic player with the ball (Lykes) and two others (McGusty and to a lesser degree Beverly) who are quite capable of attacking off the dribble - especially if attention has been drawn away from them to a player like Lykes. Miami is also way more athletic on the perimeter, although that really only shows up on offense.

With Wofford, it was all about keeping them off the 3pt line. With Miami, it'll be all about containing Lykes off the dribble without letting McGusty get driving lanes or leaving Vasiljevic open. Last year, we shut Lykes down and Miami was toast. The year before (Lykes was a reserve at the time), Miami kept it close in part because Lykes got it going for a while off the bench.

I would expect Jones, Goldwire, and probably Stanley to be tasked with the responsibility of harassing the everliving you-know-what out of Lykes. If you silence him, Miami doesn't really have enough elsewhere to threaten. If he gets it going, they can be real trouble. Because they really feed off of Lykes' confidence and creativity. Lykes and Vasiljevic are the straws that stir the drink, for different reasons. Lykes because he is a little dynamo with the ball in his hands; Vasiljevic because he can get hot from 3 and just bomb you out of the building (he has hit 4 or more 3s in 15 of his last 44 games).

[dm9e24]

Would love to see Duke finish first in the league. It has been a while.

[uh_no]

Would love to see Duke finish first in the league. It has been a while.

especially since the unbalanced schedule favors us this year. we get to play UNC twice

[ndkjr70]

Strong disagree.

Ask yourself or anyone who has had a better decade, Duke or Kansas? Kansas has won the regular season in their conference 9 out of 10 years. Their fans would trade places with what Duke has done 10 times out of 10.

The two (national championship, regular season conference championship) are not mutually exclusive...

[CDu]

I'm confused. why are the existence of a regular season championship, and such a thing being lesser to other accomplishments mutually exclusive?

Perhaps you should call up K and ask him to take down all those banners that say "Regular Season" on them.

Disagree with what? I simply said there is such a thing as a regular season championship. Do you disagree with that?

The two (national championship, regular season conference championship) are not mutually exclusive...

I think the point has been sufficiently made here. Perhaps we can get back to discussing the game, or maybe we need a FOURTH person to point it out?