Let's talk geographical preference.
I was looking at what Joe Lunardi threw on the wall this week and noticed a real lack of interest in the Greensboro site. He has Duke (2 seed in the East) and West Virginia (3 seed in the West) as the two pod hosts. But if the Mountaineers had a choice, they would prefer Cleveland, which is about 150 miles closer. This made me wonder which first weekend sites are in the highest demand.
Only the top 16 overall seeds on Selection Sunday would be assigned a pod, but to get a better picture I went with the top 20 in today's
Bracket Matrix. Here the closest sites per team (from home court to site arena, according to Google Maps).
1 Kansas: Omaha (190 mi), St. Louis (290 mi)
1 Baylor: St. Louis (724 mi), Omaha (740 mi)
1 Gonzaga: Spokane (2 mi), Sacramento (817 mi)
1 San Diego State: Sacramento (512 mi), Spokane (1,293 mi)
2 Duke: Greensboro (55 mi), Cleveland (544 mi); then Albany (625 mi) and Tampa (678 mi)
2 Florida State: Tampa (275 mi), Greensboro (537 mi)
2 Michigan State: Cleveland (232 mi), St. Louis (489 mi)
2 West Virginia: Cleveland (199 mi), Greensboro (356 mi)
3 Louisville: St. Louis (260 mi), Cleveland (348 mi)
3 Seton Hall: Albany (146 mi), Cleveland (452 mi)
3 Dayton: Cleveland (214 mi), St. Louis (361 mi)
3 Butler: St. Louis (250 mi), Cleveland (320 mi)
4 Oregon: Spokane (462 mi), Sacramento (471 mi)
4 Villanova: Albany (241 mi), Cleveland (418 mi)
4 Maryland: Greensboro (329 mi), Albany (357 mi)
4 Auburn: Tampa (438 mi), Greensboro (439 mi)
5 Kentucky: Cleveland (331 mi), St. Louis (337 mi)
5 Colorado: Omaha (555 mi), St. Louis (868 mi)
5 Iowa: Omaha (247 mi), St. Louis (261 mi)
5 Arizona: Sacramento (869 mi), St. Louis (1,488 mi)
Then, if you went strictly by closest destination, here is where each team wants to go.
Albany: 3 Seton Hall, 4 Villanova
Cleveland: 2 Michigan State, 2 West Virginia, 3 Dayton, 5 Kentucky
Greensboro: 2 Duke, 4 Maryland
Omaha: 1 Kansas, 5 Colorado, 5 Iowa
Sacramento: 1 San Diego State, 5 Arizona
Spokane: 1 Gonzaga, 4 Oregon
St. Louis: 1 Baylor, 3 Louisville, 3 Butler
Tampa: 2 Florida State, 4 Auburn
Thoughts:
* Obviously, the geographical distances will not change between now and Selection Sunday, but the seeds and order will.
* St. Louis is a desirable destination (one of the two closest) for 10 of these 20 teams. Cleveland is a preference for 9 of them.
* It is insane to see 6 teams (Baylor, Oregon, Maryland, Auburn, Kentucky, and Iowa) be roughly equidistant from 2 predetermined sites.
* A Midwest school is probably going to be shipped out. Even if you send Baylor to less-in-demand Omaha (no given, if they are the overall top seed and have a choice in the matter), that leaves Dayton locked out of Cleveland and vying for St. Louis alongside Louisville and Butler. Someone's heading to Sacramento.
* Duke and Gonzaga benefit from being close to sites that are not in heavy demand, which means the only way they won't play there is if (1) either falls to a 5 seed or worse, so that they no longer host a pod at all, or (2) the Selection Committee screws up. FSU is not as close to Tampa, but the same applies to them.
* And if you're wondering, the Spokane site is not Gonzaga's home arena.