MBB: Bracketology 2019-20

[JasonEvans]

I don't see this scenario happening either. It makes the West unbalanced to the casual and some serious viewers. Shipping SDSU or Gonzaga East or South is more logical so you have at least 1 P5/BE team in the top 2 spots of each bracket.

As of a couple years ago, the NCAA is no longer interested in balance. They strive to keep teams in their natural region as much as they can. It is really only conference matchup rules and other seeds taking priority that move teams out of their natural region.

I think Gonzaga and SDSU are extremely likely to be #1 and #2 in the West at this point.

[scottdude8]

There's a new article up on ESPN highlighting the differences between the current Bracketology brackets, which they emphasize is based off of a team's current resume, and the BPI predictions, which predict the likely outcomes come selection sunday.

Of particular interest to us:

Since we noted several advanced metrics' fondness for Duke last week, the Blue Devils lost to Louisville at home, trailing nearly the entire game. Duke followed that up by taking care of Miami. While Lunardi dropped the Blue Devils to a No. 2 seed, BPI's love for them remains unshaken. The race for a 1-seed is wide open this season, with 11 teams having a greater than 10% chance to get a No. 1 seed, per the BPI Bracket Predictor. The most likely of those 11? Duke.

BPI prediction: 75% chance Duke lands a No. 1 seed.

I think coming into this season we ALL would've taken being in the hunt for a No. 1 seed come January 23, let alone being one of the favorites for one, even with the disappointments that have been a part of this season.

The (simulated) future is still bright!

[jv001]

There's a new article up on ESPN highlighting the differences between the current Bracketology brackets, which they emphasize is based off of a team's current resume, and the BPI predictions, which predict the likely outcomes come selection sunday.

Of particular interest to us:



I think coming into this season we ALL would've taken being in the hunt for a No. 1 seed come January 23, let alone being one of the favorites for one, even with the disappointments that have been a part of this season.

The (simulated) future is still bright!

Good stuff. I don't put much faith in these ESPN guys early seeding prediction. I like our chances and I really like this Duke team.

GoDuke!

[rsvman]

There's a new article up on ESPN highlighting the differences between the current Bracketology brackets, which they emphasize is based off of a team's current resume, and the BPI predictions, which predict the likely outcomes come selection sunday.

Of particular interest to us:



I think coming into this season we ALL would've taken being in the hunt for a No. 1 seed come January 23, let alone being one of the favorites for one, even with the disappointments that have been a part of this season.

The (simulated) future is still bright!

The simulated future is so bright I gotta wear simulated shades!

[brevity]

Let's talk geographical preference.

I was looking at what Joe Lunardi threw on the wall this week and noticed a real lack of interest in the Greensboro site. He has Duke (2 seed in the East) and West Virginia (3 seed in the West) as the two pod hosts. But if the Mountaineers had a choice, they would prefer Cleveland, which is about 150 miles closer. This made me wonder which first weekend sites are in the highest demand.

Only the top 16 overall seeds on Selection Sunday would be assigned a pod, but to get a better picture I went with the top 20 in today's Bracket Matrix. Here the closest sites per team (from home court to site arena, according to Google Maps).

1 Kansas: Omaha (190 mi), St. Louis (290 mi)
1 Baylor: St. Louis (724 mi), Omaha (740 mi)
1 Gonzaga: Spokane (2 mi), Sacramento (817 mi)
1 San Diego State: Sacramento (512 mi), Spokane (1,293 mi)

2 Duke: Greensboro (55 mi), Cleveland (544 mi); then Albany (625 mi) and Tampa (678 mi)
2 Florida State: Tampa (275 mi), Greensboro (537 mi)
2 Michigan State: Cleveland (232 mi), St. Louis (489 mi)
2 West Virginia: Cleveland (199 mi), Greensboro (356 mi)

3 Louisville: St. Louis (260 mi), Cleveland (348 mi)
3 Seton Hall: Albany (146 mi), Cleveland (452 mi)
3 Dayton: Cleveland (214 mi), St. Louis (361 mi)
3 Butler: St. Louis (250 mi), Cleveland (320 mi)

4 Oregon: Spokane (462 mi), Sacramento (471 mi)
4 Villanova: Albany (241 mi), Cleveland (418 mi)
4 Maryland: Greensboro (329 mi), Albany (357 mi)
4 Auburn: Tampa (438 mi), Greensboro (439 mi)

5 Kentucky: Cleveland (331 mi), St. Louis (337 mi)
5 Colorado: Omaha (555 mi), St. Louis (868 mi)
5 Iowa: Omaha (247 mi), St. Louis (261 mi)
5 Arizona: Sacramento (869 mi), St. Louis (1,488 mi)

Then, if you went strictly by closest destination, here is where each team wants to go.

Albany: 3 Seton Hall, 4 Villanova
Cleveland: 2 Michigan State, 2 West Virginia, 3 Dayton, 5 Kentucky
Greensboro: 2 Duke, 4 Maryland
Omaha: 1 Kansas, 5 Colorado, 5 Iowa
Sacramento: 1 San Diego State, 5 Arizona
Spokane: 1 Gonzaga, 4 Oregon
St. Louis: 1 Baylor, 3 Louisville, 3 Butler
Tampa: 2 Florida State, 4 Auburn

Thoughts:

* Obviously, the geographical distances will not change between now and Selection Sunday, but the seeds and order will.

* St. Louis is a desirable destination (one of the two closest) for 10 of these 20 teams. Cleveland is a preference for 9 of them.

* It is insane to see 6 teams (Baylor, Oregon, Maryland, Auburn, Kentucky, and Iowa) be roughly equidistant from 2 predetermined sites.

* A Midwest school is probably going to be shipped out. Even if you send Baylor to less-in-demand Omaha (no given, if they are the overall top seed and have a choice in the matter), that leaves Dayton locked out of Cleveland and vying for St. Louis alongside Louisville and Butler. Someone's heading to Sacramento.

* Duke and Gonzaga benefit from being close to sites that are not in heavy demand, which means the only way they won't play there is if (1) either falls to a 5 seed or worse, so that they no longer host a pod at all, or (2) the Selection Committee screws up. FSU is not as close to Tampa, but the same applies to them.

* And if you're wondering, the Spokane site is not Gonzaga's home arena.

[Kedsy]

Let's talk geographical preference.

I was looking at what Joe Lunardi threw on the wall this week and noticed a real lack of interest in the Greensboro site. He has Duke (2 seed in the East) and West Virginia (3 seed in the West) as the two pod hosts. But if the Mountaineers had a choice, they would prefer Cleveland, which is about 150 miles closer. This made me wonder which first weekend sites are in the highest demand.

Only the top 16 overall seeds on Selection Sunday would be assigned a pod, but to get a better picture I went with the top 20 in today's Bracket Matrix. Here the closest sites per team (from home court to site arena, according to Google Maps).

1 Kansas: Omaha (190 mi), St. Louis (290 mi)
1 Baylor: St. Louis (724 mi), Omaha (740 mi)
1 Gonzaga: Spokane (2 mi), Sacramento (817 mi)
1 San Diego State: Sacramento (512 mi), Spokane (1,293 mi)

2 Duke: Greensboro (55 mi), Cleveland (544 mi); then Albany (625 mi) and Tampa (678 mi)
2 Florida State: Tampa (275 mi), Greensboro (537 mi)
2 Michigan State: Cleveland (232 mi), St. Louis (489 mi)
2 West Virginia: Cleveland (199 mi), Greensboro (356 mi)

3 Louisville: St. Louis (260 mi), Cleveland (348 mi)
3 Seton Hall: Albany (146 mi), Cleveland (452 mi)
3 Dayton: Cleveland (214 mi), St. Louis (361 mi)
3 Butler: St. Louis (250 mi), Cleveland (320 mi)

4 Oregon: Spokane (462 mi), Sacramento (471 mi)
4 Villanova: Albany (241 mi), Cleveland (418 mi)
4 Maryland: Greensboro (329 mi), Albany (357 mi)
4 Auburn: Tampa (438 mi), Greensboro (439 mi)

5 Kentucky: Cleveland (331 mi), St. Louis (337 mi)
5 Colorado: Omaha (555 mi), St. Louis (868 mi)
5 Iowa: Omaha (247 mi), St. Louis (261 mi)
5 Arizona: Sacramento (869 mi), St. Louis (1,488 mi)

Then, if you went strictly by closest destination, here is where each team wants to go.

Albany: 3 Seton Hall, 4 Villanova
Cleveland: 2 Michigan State, 2 West Virginia, 3 Dayton, 5 Kentucky
Greensboro: 2 Duke, 4 Maryland
Omaha: 1 Kansas, 5 Colorado, 5 Iowa
Sacramento: 1 San Diego State, 5 Arizona
Spokane: 1 Gonzaga, 4 Oregon
St. Louis: 1 Baylor, 3 Louisville, 3 Butler
Tampa: 2 Florida State, 4 Auburn

Thoughts:

* Obviously, the geographical distances will not change between now and Selection Sunday, but the seeds and order will.

* St. Louis is a desirable destination (one of the two closest) for 10 of these 20 teams. Cleveland is a preference for 9 of them.

* It is insane to see 6 teams (Baylor, Oregon, Maryland, Auburn, Kentucky, and Iowa) be roughly equidistant from 2 predetermined sites.

* A Midwest school is probably going to be shipped out. Even if you send Baylor to less-in-demand Omaha (no given, if they are the overall top seed and have a choice in the matter), that leaves Dayton locked out of Cleveland and vying for St. Louis alongside Louisville and Butler. Someone's heading to Sacramento.

* Duke and Gonzaga benefit from being close to sites that are not in heavy demand, which means the only way they won't play there is if (1) either falls to a 5 seed or worse, so that they no longer host a pod at all, or (2) the Selection Committee screws up. FSU is not as close to Tampa, but the same applies to them.

* And if you're wondering, the Spokane site is not Gonzaga's home arena.

Only three sites within 150 miles of anyone.

[jv001]

Let's talk geographical preference.

I was looking at what Joe Lunardi threw on the wall this week and noticed a real lack of interest in the Greensboro site. He has Duke (2 seed in the East) and West Virginia (3 seed in the West) as the two pod hosts. But if the Mountaineers had a choice, they would prefer Cleveland, which is about 150 miles closer. This made me wonder which first weekend sites are in the highest demand.

Only the top 16 overall seeds on Selection Sunday would be assigned a pod, but to get a better picture I went with the top 20 in today's Bracket Matrix. Here the closest sites per team (from home court to site arena, according to Google Maps).

1 Kansas: Omaha (190 mi), St. Louis (290 mi)
1 Baylor: St. Louis (724 mi), Omaha (740 mi)
1 Gonzaga: Spokane (2 mi), Sacramento (817 mi)
1 San Diego State: Sacramento (512 mi), Spokane (1,293 mi)

2 Duke: Greensboro (55 mi), Cleveland (544 mi); then Albany (625 mi) and Tampa (678 mi)
2 Florida State: Tampa (275 mi), Greensboro (537 mi)
2 Michigan State: Cleveland (232 mi), St. Louis (489 mi)
2 West Virginia: Cleveland (199 mi), Greensboro (356 mi)

3 Louisville: St. Louis (260 mi), Cleveland (348 mi)
3 Seton Hall: Albany (146 mi), Cleveland (452 mi)
3 Dayton: Cleveland (214 mi), St. Louis (361 mi)
3 Butler: St. Louis (250 mi), Cleveland (320 mi)

4 Oregon: Spokane (462 mi), Sacramento (471 mi)
4 Villanova: Albany (241 mi), Cleveland (418 mi)
4 Maryland: Greensboro (329 mi), Albany (357 mi)
4 Auburn: Tampa (438 mi), Greensboro (439 mi)

5 Kentucky: Cleveland (331 mi), St. Louis (337 mi)
5 Colorado: Omaha (555 mi), St. Louis (868 mi)
5 Iowa: Omaha (247 mi), St. Louis (261 mi)
5 Arizona: Sacramento (869 mi), St. Louis (1,488 mi)

Then, if you went strictly by closest destination, here is where each team wants to go.

Albany: 3 Seton Hall, 4 Villanova
Cleveland: 2 Michigan State, 2 West Virginia, 3 Dayton, 5 Kentucky
Greensboro: 2 Duke, 4 Maryland
Omaha: 1 Kansas, 5 Colorado, 5 Iowa
Sacramento: 1 San Diego State, 5 Arizona
Spokane: 1 Gonzaga, 4 Oregon
St. Louis: 1 Baylor, 3 Louisville, 3 Butler
Tampa: 2 Florida State, 4 Auburn

Thoughts:

* Obviously, the geographical distances will not change between now and Selection Sunday, but the seeds and order will.

* St. Louis is a desirable destination (one of the two closest) for 10 of these 20 teams. Cleveland is a preference for 9 of them.

* It is insane to see 6 teams (Baylor, Oregon, Maryland, Auburn, Kentucky, and Iowa) be roughly equidistant from 2 predetermined sites.

* A Midwest school is probably going to be shipped out. Even if you send Baylor to less-in-demand Omaha (no given, if they are the overall top seed and have a choice in the matter), that leaves Dayton locked out of Cleveland and vying for St. Louis alongside Louisville and Butler. Someone's heading to Sacramento.

* Duke and Gonzaga benefit from being close to sites that are not in heavy demand, which means the only way they won't play there is if (1) either falls to a 5 seed or worse, so that they no longer host a pod at all, or (2) the Selection Committee screws up. FSU is not as close to Tampa, but the same applies to them.

* And if you're wondering, the Spokane site is not Gonzaga's home arena.

I wonder if Maryland fans would bring their batteries?

GoDuke!

[duke2x]

As of a couple years ago, the NCAA is no longer interested in balance. They strive to keep teams in their natural region as much as they can. It is really only conference matchup rules and other seeds taking priority that move teams out of their natural region.

I think Gonzaga and SDSU are extremely likely to be #1 and #2 in the West at this point.

2018 is a recent exception, but we don't need to rehash that argument this year. I fully expect the NCAA to do something to surprise everybody, bracketologists included, on Selection Sunday that inconsistently applies one of their guidelines.

There's a lot of basketball to be played.

[duke2x]

I wonder if Maryland fans would bring their batteries?

Thanks to brevity for taking the time to look this up for the pods. It's also pertinent to note that Waco to Tampa across the Gulf is 900+ miles. (Yes, it was worth looking up since it solves the log jam in part.)

Today's bracketology would put Dayton, Butler, or Louisville over MD there given the log jams in St. Louis and Cleveland. This gives me reason to cheer for Dayton and Butler. KY, Louisville, and MD would make Greensboro about as bad as UNC being there. Dayton is a tiny school that won't travel 10 hours for the game. Same with Butler.

[Bluedog]

As of a couple years ago, the NCAA is no longer interested in balance. They strive to keep teams in their natural region as much as they can. It is really only conference matchup rules and other seeds taking priority that move teams out of their natural region.

I think Gonzaga and SDSU are extremely likely to be #1 and #2 in the West at this point.

I could be wrong, but I believe the NCAA did say that they'd no longer put the "best" 1 seed with the best 2 a few years back. So, yes, generally it's all about the natural region but I believe it's a rule to avoid putting the #1 and #5 teams on the rank sheet in the same region.

[duke2x]

I could be wrong, but I believe the NCAA did say that they'd no longer put the "best" 1 seed with the best 2 a few years back. So, yes, generally it's all about the natural region but I believe it's a rule to avoid putting the #1 and #5 teams on the rank sheet in the same region.

I know that one. That's the "Duke-Louisville rule" from 2013.

[English]

Thanks to brevity for taking the time to look this up for the pods. It's also pertinent to note that Waco to Tampa across the Gulf is 900+ miles. (Yes, it was worth looking up since it solves the log jam in part.)

Today's bracketology would put Dayton, Butler, or Louisville over MD there given the log jams in St. Louis and Cleveland. This gives me reason to cheer for Dayton and Butler. KY, Louisville, and MD would make Greensboro about as bad as UNC being there. Dayton is a tiny school that won't travel 10 hours for the game. Same with Butler.

Not so fast--the reasons that Duke sharing a pod with unx is such a bummer far exceed the simple animus that their shameless fanbase has for Duke. An equally annoying reason is because that pod is almost always in NC (or within a couple hour's drive), and their vile fans (of which there are many in the area) eat up the tickets on the secondary market like a plaque of locusts. They're extremely well-represented and their rooting interests are evenly divided between their own team and NOT-DUKE. So, I suspect that sharing a pod with UK would be similar, but I don't believe that UL or UMd could match that cocktail of desolation despite both bringing some fairly strong anti-Duke sentiment.

[Acymetric]

Yeah, none of those would be near as bad as sharing a pod with unc. Not even a comparison.

In other news, I am shocked that bracketmatrix still shows NC State and​ VT in the tournament as 11 seeds.

[scottdude8]

I could be wrong, but I believe the NCAA did say that they'd no longer put the "best" 1 seed with the best 2 a few years back. So, yes, generally it's all about the natural region but I believe it's a rule to avoid putting the #1 and #5 teams on the rank sheet in the same region.

This is correct. Recently (I forget what year) they added a stipulation that top ranked 2 seed (i.e. the #5 team) would not be put in the region of the overall No. 1 seed, even if that made geographic sense. That does not extend down the line, however. Last year even though MSU was a "better" No. 2 seed than Michigan, they ended up in our bracket because, as a higher ranked No. 2 seed, they got geographic preference. Hence Michigan was sent out West.

[arnie]

Not so fast--the reasons that Duke sharing a pod with unx is such a bummer far exceed the simple animus that their shameless fanbase has for Duke. An equally annoying reason is because that pod is almost always in NC (or within a couple hour's drive), and their vile fans (of which there are many in the area) eat up the tickets on the secondary market like a plaque of locusts. They're extremely well-represented and their rooting interests are evenly divided between their own team and NOT-DUKE. So, I suspect that sharing a pod with UK would be similar, but I don't believe that UL or UMd could match that cocktail of desolation despite both bringing some fairly strong anti-Duke sentiment.

Yea, too bad NCAA ticket outlets are only found in WalMarts.

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW, Lunardi only has four ACC teams in with UVa just scraping in and State on the outside:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

I guess by mid-February it is no longer “too early” to get serious about the brackets.

[Troublemaker]

The Louisville loss was also good for Duke in the chase for the 1 seed. In the most recent Bracket Matrix (as of the time of this post), Louisville had been creeping up on Duke for the 5th overall spot. We want to remain *the* team that would move up to a 1 seed in the event that any of the 1 seeds falter.

The win at WVU was unfortunately big for Kansas.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The Louisville loss was also good for Duke in the chase for the 1 seed. In the most recent Bracket Matrix (as of the time of this post), Louisville had been creeping up on Duke for the 5th overall spot. We want to remain *the* team that would move up to a 1 seed in the event that any of the 1 seeds falter.

The win at WVU was unfortunately big for Kansas.

I guarantee you someone will falter. Probably many.

[CDu]

I guarantee you someone will falter. Probably many.

Well, there are at least two more losses on the schedules of Baylor and Kansas. So presumably one of them stands to drop off the 1 line if we can win out. I'd especially root for Kansas to lose at Baylor and again in the Big 12 tourney. It would be hard to argue for a 5-loss Kansas team that lost to us in a neutral site game if we win out the regular season and make a deep ACC tourney run.

Of course, that still leaves four teams in discussion - would they really put 3 mid/low-major conference teams on the 1 line?

Either way, if we can get the 1 or 2 seed in the East, I'll be pretty okay with things.

[OldPhiKap]

I guarantee you someone will falter. Probably many.

Certainly so. I would be shocked if we do not drop a game or two (at least) between now and the end of the ACCT.