MBB: Bracketology 2019-20

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The other point that data might be making is that teams that head into the tournament on really long winning streaks may not be very battle tested. It’s always better to win than lose but when you play quality teams in conference you are bound to lose a few. And that makes you better in the long run. Not the losses, but the constant quality competition.

That's a great point..and then there's this...what if a team that IS battle tested gets on a long streak. Are they tempting the law of averages, regression to the mean, the hoops gods, with say a 12 game streak against good competition coming into the 6 game crap shoot that is the NCAAT? So many possibilities...so many cross current dynamics...what makes the NCAA the most impractical, yet wonderful, way to choose a champ.

[scottdude8]

Who said anything about my limiting it to the regular season?

-jk

I’m good with that too.

[scottdude8]

I agree with everyone that I'd like to win all the games. But your question got me thinking how it usually worked, so I looked at the last 20 years of NCAA tournament winners and how many games in a row they'd won coming into the tournament:

Year	Team	Winning Streak
2019	UVa	0
2018	V'Nova	5
2017	UNC	0
2016	V'Nova	0
2015	Duke	0
2014	UConn	0
2013	L'Ville	10
2012	UK	0
2011	UConn	5
2010	Duke	4
2009	UNC	0
2008	Kansas	7
2007	Florida	4
2006	Florida	5
2005	UNC	0
2004	UConn	3
2003	Syr	0
2002	Md	0
2001	Duke	4
2000	Mich St	5

Personally, I don't think this has any predictive value, but it's interesting that only two out of 20 had more than a five game winning streak coming into the NCAAT, and fully half (ten of 20, including five of the last six) lost their last game before the tourney.

Nice work. Although I’m not sure if this shows as much about the value of going into the tourney “hot” as it does that only 4 of the past 10 national title winners have won their conference tourney. I wonder what it would look like to go back two losses...

[npdevil27]

That's a great point..and then there's this...what if a team that IS battle tested gets on a long streak. Are they tempting the law of averages, regression to the mean, the hoops gods, with say a 12 game streak against good competition coming into the 6 game crap shoot that is the NCAAT? So many possibilities...so many cross current dynamics...what makes the NCAA the most impractical, yet wonderful, way to choose a champ.

Who knows, which is why even with 35 years worth of data in the 64 team era it is still really, really hard to figure out. Each team is unique. It’s hard to remember that narratives are written after the fact. UVA is a prime example - they could have lost to a 16 seed in back to back years.

[OldPhiKap]

Yeah, but what is the question?

-Jason "I too will have to put some Deep Thought into this" Evans

How many roads must a man walk down?

[Indoor66]

That answer is blowing in the wind.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Nice work. Although I’m not sure if this shows as much about the value of going into the tourney “hot” as it does that only 4 of the past 10 national title winners have won their conference tourney. I wonder what it would look like to go back two losses...

I think it also shows how meaningless conference tournaments are now...for teams who have already established a high seeding.

[gofurman]

I’m fine with Duke as a 2 seed. Rather have a team playing well (like v MSU n’ ND) than get a 1 seed and play like we did v State! Esp if we could draw San Diego State- thoughts ??

[devildeac]

I’m fine with Duke as a 2 seed. Rather have a team playing well (like v MSU n’ ND) than get a 1 seed and play like we did v State! Esp if we could draw San Diego State- thoughts ??

As long as our 15 seed isn't...

...nope, not gonna finish that one...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

As long as our 15 seed isn't...

...nope, not gonna finish that one...

...like the old saying...Lord have Mercer...

[ElliottHoo]

...like the old saying...Lord have Mercer...

And may He keep it to himself.

[devildeac]

And may He keep it to himself.

U
Might
Be
Correct

[HereBeforeCoachK]

U
Might
Be
Correct

ISWYDT...that's Rich,mon...and I'd add that Eddie Fogler had such a hard time coppin with his loss - his career was never the same...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Kansas about to shake some things up

[richardjackson199]

Kansas about to shake some things up

Big 12 should get Two 1 Seeds

[Hartford Dukie]

Not a big deal...Baylor drops to #3 or #4 but remains a clear 1 seed and will remain so unless they lose to someone other than Kansas...a loss in the Big 12 tourney to Kansas won't move them off the 1 line.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Big 12 should get Two 1 Seeds

Here comes an outrageous statement:

The Big 12 is better than the ACC this year.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Big 12 should get Two 1 Seeds

Why is that? The Big 12 is not impressive. Two teams have basically beat up on a bunch of okay and crappy teams.

[richardjackson199]

Why is that? The Big 12 is not impressive. Two teams have basically beat up on a bunch of okay and crappy teams.

I just think what those 2 teams have done is more impressive than most other teams' resume for a 1 seed. But still lots of ball to play.

[Hartford Dukie]

Kansas has an 11-3 quad one record; Baylor 10-1. Clearly the best two resumes.