MBB: Bracketology 2019-20

[richardjackson199]

Why? The ACC is only the fifth best conference (KP), and significantly behind the B10, B12, and BE.

Obviously nobody is 1-seed caliber in the BE...but I'm not sure how you make an argument for Duke over either KU or Baylor right now. 3 50+ losses is a bad number, when KU and Baylor combine for 1 total...and further, losing by 22 this week is a lot more impactful than losing to washington by 3 in the second game of the season.

So the question of which 2 of gonzaga, duke, sdsu, and dayton are left out? The other 3 also have a grand total of 1 combined loss to a +50 team, SDSU's loss last night to UNLV, which in the grand scheme of things is comparable to our loss to SFA.

Looking back at past losses of Duke 1 seeds:

19: 0 outside the top 50
15: 0 outside the top 50
11: 0 outside the top 50
10: 1 outside the top 50 (NCSU)

That said, there have been a couple teams that have gotten one sseeds with such bad losses...kansas 2018, and uva 2016...though the closest will be Oregon 2016...how the committee thought they were a 1 seed, I'll never know.

So is it possible duke gets a 1 seed? Yes. The cited examples demonstrate that. Do I think it necessarily probable, or that duke deserves it? Nope.

I didn't make an argument for Duke over either KU or Baylor right now. Immediately after Kansas beat Baylor I said that the Big 12 will likely have Two #1 Seeds, and that Kansas and Baylor are clearly the most deserving.

There is a lot of basketball left to play. I don't expect the Big Ten or Big East will have any teams deserving of a 1 Seed come Selection Sunday, but lots of things can happen. If Maryland wins all their tough upcoming games they could certainly earn one. But that seems unlikely. I think yesterday's loss especially by SDSU hurt their chances because they did not play a tough enough schedule to earn a 1 seed. So that opened up a spot for somebody, IMO probably the ACC which has 3 very good teams at the top.

By Selection Sunday I think it's most likely that Louisville earns that spot. If they get wins over Duke and FSU on their home floors and win the ACC regular season that is impressive. If they win the ACCT that would also give them a good argument. But Duke is right in it, and I think we control our own destiny too.

I always put my money where my mouth is. I'd be willing (today only) to wager a friendly pie that 1 ACC Team earns a 1 Seed.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The talk about Maryland being a 1 seed is, in my view, premature. Their schedule is BRUTAL to finish the regular season.

@ Ohio State
@ Minnesota
vs. Michigan State
@ Rutgers
vs. Michigan

T-Rank has them as a dog in 3 of those 5 games. And Michigan is playing much better with Isaiah Livers back in the lineup. Assuming they get through that slate of games unscathed, then they will have earned the talk of being a contender for a 1 seed. For now, their resume is not as good as Duke's, they don't rate ahead of Duke in ANY metric, and they are shouldn't be considered a 1 seed threat for now.

As I was saying...

Maryland loses at Ohio State and is still a dog in half of their remaining games.

[Dukehk]

I wonder how the committee is going to treat that one loss for SDSU. They have played an exceedingly easy schedule with no ranked teams to speak of and were knocked off by a 15-14 unlv team. I don't think they are deserving of a 1 seed at all. They should be a 2 seed out west with the zags as it stands.

Speaking of which, I don't even think the Zags deserve a 1 seed either! Every year they seem to luck their way into a high seeding due to the fact that there are absolutely no west coast teams worth a lick in the last decade or so.

It will be interesting to see if the committee agrees as they only have 5 quadrant 1 wins and 3 quadrant 2 wins in total. Duke has 4 quadrant one and 6 quadrant two wins at the moment, including beating preseason #1 and #2 teams. However, Duke does have a quadrant 3 loss (same with SDSU) - the only two teams in the conversation for a #1 seed that have such bad losses on their resume.

With maryland dropping the ball today, I think the final #1 seed is a toss up between Duke, Auburn and Dayton at the moment. I suppose Baylor and Kansas are locks at this stage, unless something crazy happens. Still alot of games and the conference tournaments to play through. Things could still change drastically.

The way I see it is if we win out for the regular season ACC title and get far in the ACC tournament (think finals) then I believe we have a good shot at the #1 seed. Whether or not that will be in the East is another matter. FSU is also a dark-horse and if they win out, they could easily be in the conversation for a #1 seed (probably dropping us to #2 seed indefinitely).

[Kedsy]

With maryland dropping the ball today, I think the final #1 seed is a toss up between Duke, Auburn and Dayton at the moment.

Auburn? The same Auburn that has lost to Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri and is ranked #28 in the NET rankings? A team Lunardi thinks is a 5-seed?

[Dukehk]

Auburn? The same Auburn that has lost to Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri and is ranked #28 in the NET rankings? A team Lunardi thinks is a 5-seed?

Auburn actually has a pretty decent resume if you look closely. They have 5 quadrant one wins and 7 quadrant two wins. Two losses were from quadrant one and two from quadrant two. All losses coming on the road.

Assuming they win the SEC and beat kentuck on the road, who knows.

[uh_no]

Auburn actually has a pretty decent resume if you look closely. They have 5 quadrant one wins and 7 quadrant two wins. Two losses were from quadrant one and two from quadrant two. All losses coming on the road.

Assuming they win the SEC and beat kentuck on the road, who knows.

The SEC isn't actually good...and it turns out, neither is kentuck.

They're not on anybody's radar for a one seed.

And further saying "assuming they win everything, who knows!" is halfway true of many borderline top 25 teams.

The committee had them at #13 overall...and that was before they lost to #107 missouri and #97 Georgia. Their best win is over...wait they don't have any impressive wins all year. #26 kentucky?

If I look closely, their resume is pretty terrible.

[Dukehk]

The SEC isn't actually good...and it turns out, neither is kentuck.

They're not on anybody's radar for a one seed.

And further saying "assuming they win everything, who knows!" is halfway true of many borderline top 25 teams.

The committee had them at #13 overall...and that was before they lost to #107 missouri and #97 Georgia. Their best win is over...wait they don't have any impressive wins all year. #26 kentucky?

If I look closely, their resume is pretty terrible.

I'm just making the assumption that if we win our remainder games and get to the ACC tourney final vs. if Auburn win their remainder games and make it to their respective finals.

If comparing both resumes, then we obviously have the better wins (over kansas and fsu). However their wins over kentucky and lsu are also looking good right now, and if they win at rupp then who knows.

But as I mentioned earlier, we have a quadrant 3 loss. Auburn have 2 quadrant one and 2 quadrant two losses.

Its all just conjecture at this stage but I thought they might be a team that could sneak into the #1 seed conversation.

[uh_no]

I'm just making the assumption that if we win our remainder games and get to the ACC tourney final vs. if Auburn win their remainder games and make it to their respective finals.

If comparing both resumes, then we obviously have the better wins (over kansas and fsu). However their wins over kentucky and lsu are also looking good right now, and if they win at rupp then who knows.

But as I mentioned earlier, we have a quadrant 3 loss. Auburn have 2 quadrant one and 2 quadrant two losses.

Its all just conjecture at this stage but I thought they might be a team that could sneak into the #1 seed conversation.

Wait, hold up...the same LSU that has won just 2 of their last 6 games? Including a 9 point loss to a 9-18 vanderbilt team? The same LSU that only managed a 4 point win at home against a 13-14 Missou?

I'm not denying that the committee doesn't do stupid things, but there has been no indication that they're on the committee's radar, and they're 2-2 with 2 bad losses since the committee last ranked them 13, and only 1 game against a reasonable opponent left. I have immense difficulty imagining a world where a win over a mediocre UK team would offset two terrible losses enough to cause a team to jump form #13 to #4. Maybe if Duke, FSU, UL, KU, and Baylor go <500 the rest of the way...but the odds are astronomical. Is there a universe where they win out and every team presumed in front of them goes down in flames? Sure. But is it worth it to entertain that small a probability? Surely not.

[Nugget]

I wonder how the committee is going to treat that one loss for SDSU. They have played an exceedingly easy schedule with no ranked teams to speak of and were knocked off by a 15-14 unlv team).

That's not quite true - San Diego St. won at BYU (which will be ranked tomorrow), beat Top-15 Creighton by 30 on a neutral and also beat #21 Iowa on a neutral. The Mountain West is pretty easy, but frankly so is our ACC schedule, with just 1 game each against Louisville, FSU and Virginia and the cheats being down around 100 in the Net.

SDSU is #5 Net and #5 Ken Pom vs. our 4 and 6. It's fairly comparable. I do agree that if we can win out (which would include wins at Virginia and against at least one of FSU or Louisville) we'd probably pass SDSU, but anything less likely wouldn't do it.

[sagegrouse]

That's not quite true - San Diego St. won at BYU (which will be ranked tomorrow), beat Top-15 Creighton by 30 on a neutral and also beat #21 Iowa on a neutral. The Mountain West is pretty easy, but frankly so is our ACC schedule, with just 1 game each against Louisville, FSU and Virginia and the cheats being down around 100 in the Net.

SDSU is #5 Net and #5 Ken Pom vs. our 4 and 6. It's fairly comparable. I do agree that if we can win out (which would include wins at Virginia and against at least one of FSU or Louisville) we'd probably pass SDSU, but anything less likely wouldn't do it.

I hear you, and who knows what the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will do? After all, they are on a fool's errand trying to fill out a field of 68 teams who play only in-conference games after December 31, a date when teams are still evolving and improving.*

I think there is a "body of work" argument against SDSU. The Aztecs had three Nov.-Dec. wins against teams that were unranked then but in the Top 25 now. Otherwise, they have played nobody special. And their record against the AP Top 25 is 0-0 because of the unranked teams in the early season wins. No way would I give such a team a #1 seed, ahead of teams that have slugged it out with some of the best teams in the country.

I say #3 seed is about right for San Diego State.

But as I said, who knows what the TSC will do?

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
* Kudos to the exception: the SEC and Big 12 play a challenge in the middle of February.

[DavidBenAkiva]

That's not quite true - San Diego St. won at BYU (which will be ranked tomorrow), beat Top-15 Creighton by 30 on a neutral and also beat #21 Iowa on a neutral. The Mountain West is pretty easy, but frankly so is our ACC schedule, with just 1 game each against Louisville, FSU and Virginia and the cheats being down around 100 in the Net.

SDSU is #5 Net and #5 Ken Pom vs. our 4 and 6. It's fairly comparable. I do agree that if we can win out (which would include wins at Virginia and against at least one of FSU or Louisville) we'd probably pass SDSU, but anything less likely wouldn't do it.

Couldn't agree more with Nugget here. One caveat is that SDSU's victory over BYU was when the Cougars were without Yoeli Childs. He is a real difference maker. BYU was blown out against Gonzaga in Spokane but then 28 points and 10 rebounds against the Zags on Saturday night. Any win over BYU without him should have an asterisk.

Looking at the teams competing for a 1 Seed, Gonzaga seems to have a firm grip on the top spot in the West. They are surprisingly consistent in NET, Strength of Record, ESPN's BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin where they rank 3rd in all of them. There is little separation between the next contenders, including Dayton, Duke, and SDSU.



Dayton...Duke...SDSU
NET....4....6....5
SOR....7....9....4
BPI....9....1....6
KenPom...6....4....5
Sagarin...12....5....9
Q1-A...0-2...3-1...3-0
Q1...4-2...4-3...4-0
Q2...6-0...6-0...5-0
Q3...7-0...11-1...7-1
Q4...8-0...2-0...9-0

When you look at the rankings and records, which of these looks like the profile of a 1 seed? My honest assessment of it is that Dayton is looking like a 2 Seed at the moment, even before Duke plays at Virginia. Duke is the only team that has another Q1 opportunity the rest of the regular season. If Louisville loses one or both of its games against FSU and Virginia - both on the road - and Duke clinches the top record in the ACC, it is going to be very difficult for the committee to not look at these resumes, the regular season ACC record, and not have Duke as a 1 seed.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The SEC isn't actually good...and it turns out, neither is kentuck.

They're not on anybody's radar for a one seed.

And further saying "assuming they win everything, who knows!" is halfway true of many borderline top 25 teams.

The committee had them at #13 overall...and that was before they lost to #107 missouri and #97 Georgia. Their best win is over...wait they don't have any impressive wins all year. #26 kentucky?

If I look closely, their resume is pretty terrible.

Yeah, the SEC isn't good. According to KenPom, the SEC has zero teams in the top 25. In the top 50, they have 6 teams. They'll probably get 4-5 teams in the tournament.

The ACC is having a real down year. Two teams in the top 10, 3 teams in the top 25, and 5 teams in the top 50. Compare that with the Big10 and Big12 who have 4 teams each in the top 15 (and the Big10 has an impressive 12 teams in the top 40!).

[JasonEvans]

I am glad the Auburn talk has died out in the past few posts. No reason to waste time on the absurd. The Tigers could win every remaining game and barely be in the mix for a #2 seed.

With Maryland's loss, I think the final #1 seed (Baylor, Kansas, and Gonzaga feel like locks to me unless something crazy happens) comes down to SDSU, Duke, Dayton, and Louisville or FSU. I mean, Maryland is in the mix if they win out, but that just seems so unlikely due to the strength of the Big Ten.

In order, here are the scenarios in my mind:

SDSU - I sorta think they would be the last #1 if the tourney were today, but it is a close call. Another loss takes them completely out of the running. They do have a somewhat tough game left at Nevada and are likely to face a pretty good Utah State team in the WMC tourney. Winning out is their only case for the #1 but they seem pretty likely to win out and everyone else in this conversation seems likely to stumble at least once.

Duke - Win out and the Blue Devils will get the last #1, I'm pretty convinced of that. A loss, like at Virginia or in the ACC finals, does not take them out of the running, but probably means they would need SDSU and perhaps Dayton to stumble.

Dayton - A lot of the pundits are really high on the Flyers and like to point out that they are 4-2 in Q1 games, but they don't have a single high Q1 win. Their best victory is a neutral court victory over St. Marys. Yes, they have impressive OT losses to Kansas and Colorado, but they do not have a single win over a top 30 team in the NET. Will the committee really give a #1 seed to a team that has zero wins over teams likely to make the Sweet 16? If they win out and other teams stumble, they may get it by default. The Flyers do still have a solid Q1 game left at Rhode Island. If Duke gets a #2 and Dayton is the #1 in our region, you won't see me complaining one bit.

Louisville/FSU - I know Florida State seems to be the more trendy pick to sneak up into the #1 seed conversation because they have been playing better lately, but the advanced metrics (KenPom and the NET) like Louisville a lot more than the Seminoles. Louisville gets in the conversation for a #1 if they win at FSU tonight and then beat Virginia at Virginia. FSU has an easier road to winning out and if they do (including the ACC tournament) they will be in #1 seed contention.

One more longshot to bring up -- Creighton, Villanova, and Seton Hall. Everyone talks about the Big Ten, but the Big East is loaded with Q1 opportunities. As a result, Seton Hall has 10 Q1 wins already, Creighton has 9, and Villanova has 8 (Duke only has 4). All of these teams are a notch down from the ones mentioned above in the advanced metrics and all of them have more losses than the teams talked about here so it will take winning out to get into the conversation but winning out would get any of these guys into serious consideration. I mean Seton Hall closes with at Marquette, Villanova, and at Creighton... I doubt they win those, but if they do everyone will be talking about them.

I'll go ahead and make a wild stab at percent chances among each of these teams to get the last #1 seed:

SDSU 30%
Duke 25%
Dayton 15%
FSU 10%
Louisville 8%
Maryland 6%
Creighton 3%
Villanova 2%
Seton Hall 1%

-Jason "" Evans

[Wahoo2000]

Strangely, I had a dream last night that UVa ended up as the 8 seed with Maryland as a 1 seed and were playing them in Greensboro. Weird.

Strange gets stranger - Joey Brackets at ESPN currently has TT/UVA (7/10) bracketed with Maryland/Little Rock (2/15) in.... you guessed it - Greensboro.

[JasonEvans]

Strange gets stranger - Joey Brackets at ESPN currently has TT/UVA (7/10) bracketed with Maryland/Little Rock (2/15) in... you guessed it - Greensboro.

Shouldn't that game be played in Alaska... just to honor Gary Williams?

[Acymetric]

Why? The ACC is only the fifth best conference (KP), and significantly behind the B10, B12, and BE.

Obviously nobody is 1-seed caliber in the BE...but I'm not sure how you make an argument for Duke over either KU or Baylor right now. 3 50+ losses is a bad number, when KU and Baylor combine for 1 total...and further, losing by 22 this week is a lot more impactful than losing to washington by 3 in the second game of the season.

So the question of which 2 of gonzaga, duke, sdsu, and dayton are left out? The other 3 also have a grand total of 1 combined loss to a +50 team, SDSU's loss last night to UNLV, which in the grand scheme of things is comparable to our loss to SFA.

Looking back at past losses of Duke 1 seeds:

19: 0 outside the top 50
15: 0 outside the top 50
11: 0 outside the top 50
10: 1 outside the top 50 (NCSU)

That said, there have been a couple teams that have gotten one sseeds with such bad losses...kansas 2018, and uva 2016...though the closest will be Oregon 2016...how the committee thought they were a 1 seed, I'll never know.

So is it possible duke gets a 1 seed? Yes. The cited examples demonstrate that. Do I think it necessarily probable, or that duke deserves it? Nope.

Assuming the winner of the ACC is Duke FSU, or Louisville, the ACC winner should absolutely get a 1 seed over Dayton, SDSU, or Gonzaga.

That's not quite true - San Diego St. won at BYU (which will be ranked tomorrow), beat Top-15 Creighton by 30 on a neutral and also beat #21 Iowa on a neutral. The Mountain West is pretty easy, but frankly so is our ACC schedule, with just 1 game each against Louisville, FSU and Virginia and the cheats being down around 100 in the Net.

SDSU is #5 Net and #5 Ken Pom vs. our 4 and 6. It's fairly comparable. I do agree that if we can win out (which would include wins at Virginia and against at least one of FSU or Louisville) we'd probably pass SDSU, but anything less likely wouldn't do it.

When teams are that close, I think you look harder at SOS. Personally I believe that Dayton, SDSU, and Gonzaga's SOS rankings are disqualifying unless they are light years ahead of teams with tougher schedules in other metrics...and they aren't. I would have grudgingly accepted SDSU if they had gone undefeated, but that ship has sailed and they should be no higher than a 2 seed (although I believed that before
the loss).

[uh_no]

I am glad the Auburn talk has died out in the past few posts. No reason to waste time on the absurd. The Tigers could win every remaining game and barely be in the mix for a #2 seed.

With Maryland's loss, I think the final #1 seed (Baylor, Kansas, and Gonzaga feel like locks to me unless something crazy happens) comes down to SDSU, Duke, Dayton, and Louisville or FSU. I mean, Maryland is in the mix if they win out, but that just seems so unlikely due to the strength of the Big Ten.

In order, here are the scenarios in my mind:

SDSU - I sorta think they would be the last #1 if the tourney were today, but it is a close call. Another loss takes them completely out of the running. They do have a somewhat tough game left at Nevada and are likely to face a pretty good Utah State team in the WMC tourney. Winning out is their only case for the #1 but they seem pretty likely to win out and everyone else in this conversation seems likely to stumble at least once.

Duke - Win out and the Blue Devils will get the last #1, I'm pretty convinced of that. A loss, like at Virginia or in the ACC finals, does not take them out of the running, but probably means they would need SDSU and perhaps Dayton to stumble.

Dayton - A lot of the pundits are really high on the Flyers and like to point out that they are 4-2 in Q1 games, but they don't have a single high Q1 win. Their best victory is a neutral court victory over St. Marys. Yes, they have impressive OT losses to Kansas and Colorado, but they do not have a single win over a top 30 team in the NET. Will the committee really give a #1 seed to a team that has zero wins over teams likely to make the Sweet 16? If they win out and other teams stumble, they may get it by default. The Flyers do still have a solid Q1 game left at Rhode Island. If Duke gets a #2 and Dayton is the #1 in our region, you won't see me complaining one bit.

Louisville/FSU - I know Florida State seems to be the more trendy pick to sneak up into the #1 seed conversation because they have been playing better lately, but the advanced metrics (KenPom and the NET) like Louisville a lot more than the Seminoles. Louisville gets in the conversation for a #1 if they win at FSU tonight and then beat Virginia at Virginia. FSU has an easier road to winning out and if they do (including the ACC tournament) they will be in #1 seed contention.

One more longshot to bring up -- Creighton, Villanova, and Seton Hall. Everyone talks about the Big Ten, but the Big East is loaded with Q1 opportunities. As a result, Seton Hall has 10 Q1 wins already, Creighton has 9, and Villanova has 8 (Duke only has 4). All of these teams are a notch down from the ones mentioned above in the advanced metrics and all of them have more losses than the teams talked about here so it will take winning out to get into the conversation but winning out would get any of these guys into serious consideration. I mean Seton Hall closes with at Marquette, Villanova, and at Creighton... I doubt they win those, but if they do everyone will be talking about them.

I'll go ahead and make a wild stab at percent chances among each of these teams to get the last #1 seed:

SDSU 30%
Duke 25%
Dayton 15%
FSU 10%
Louisville 8%
Maryland 6%
Creighton 3%
Villanova 2%
Seton Hall 1%

-Jason "" Evans

This all largely sounds right for me. The key for Duke and UL, IMO, is avoiding bad losses the rest of the way. For top teams, bad losses resonate more than good wins...which makes some sense as the top teams are supposed to have good wins...and UL and Duke each have a couple bad losses.


I think FSU is largely out of it...their NET isn't good enough. Now, the game vs UL might change that.

THe committee is often hesitant to use tournament results to affect seedings too much at the top, so one thing that may hurt duke is the fact that they're 6, with nothing to really boost them until a potential ACCT finals semifinal...though I imagine consecutive wins over FSU and UL would be hard to overlook...

Anyway, the committee may just dodge the question and put two sdsu or dayton on the line...which would be unfortunate, but duke has themselves to blame ultimately.

[Dukehk]

Wait, hold up...the same LSU that has won just 2 of their last 6 games? Including a 9 point loss to a 9-18 vanderbilt team? The same LSU that only managed a 4 point win at home against a 13-14 Missou?

I'm not denying that the committee doesn't do stupid things, but there has been no indication that they're on the committee's radar, and they're 2-2 with 2 bad losses since the committee last ranked them 13, and only 1 game against a reasonable opponent left. I have immense difficulty imagining a world where a win over a mediocre UK team would offset two terrible losses enough to cause a team to jump form #13 to #4. Maybe if Duke, FSU, UL, KU, and Baylor go <500 the rest of the way...but the odds are astronomical. Is there a universe where they win out and every team presumed in front of them goes down in flames? Sure. But is it worth it to entertain that small a probability? Surely not.

In the same vein our MSU win is looking even worse than their lsu win.

Thats the worrying thing. Not sure how good that sole ranked road win is looking for us right now. I wonder if the committee takes that into consideration during seeding.

Also, kentucky is now ranked #8 in the polls. So I don't think they are "mediocre" by anyone's standards. Especially in this wide open year. That would be a better road win for auburn than anything we currently have. But yes, thanks for stating the obvious point I made earlier, that they are a dark horse and a long shot. Took you a while though

[uh_no]

In the same vein our MSU win is looking even worse than their lsu win.

you might be the only person in the world who thinks that.

Lets look at MSU's losses in the past couple weeks:
#27 wisconsin, tournament team
#20 PSU, tournament team
#11 michigan, tournament team
#10 maryland home, tournament team

Let's look at LSU's losses in the past couple weeks:
#171 vanderbuilt, not a tournament team
#38 auburn, tournament team
#46 alabama, not a tournament team
#26 UK, tournament team

I can see no non-tin-foil-hat argument that MSU's resume isn't better than LSUs, and that's reflected in every ranking imaginable...KP, NET, Lunardi, BPI, AP, Coaches poll, power rankings...take your pick.

Further, we beat MSU on the road, where auburn beat LSU at home.

[scottdude8]

I'll have my more detailed thoughts in a full article up soon, but I'm of the mindset that Duke, once again, "controls its own destiny" for a 1-seed. I don't think Lunardi was necessarily wrong in keeping SDSU as a 1 seed today, but come Selection Sunday in 20 days, if Duke does what they need to do they'll have significantly beefed up their resume (likely including at least two more Q1 wins, and very probably one more Q1-A (sub parens, I love that terminology, so kudos to whoever used it up-thread)), while SDSU has no way of doing so (at most they can add a couple more Q2 wins). Meanwhile, the most likely scenario is that Maryland will lose at least one, probably two, more games, considering how hard the end of their regular season is and how tough the Big Ten Tourney will be. With the fact that Michigan State is going to be very hungry for a marquee win to boost themselves back up the projected bracket, and the trajectory that Michigan is on since the return of Isaiah Livers, Maryland might not be more than a possession favorite in either of their two remaining home games either.

There's also the "human nature" element to consider here. I've got a sneaky suspicion that the NCAA would much rather have Duke (or Maryland, or Louisville even) as the No. 1 seed in the East, so they can advertise the heck out of a big name program being atop the bracket. And SDSU probably won't be too upset being the No. 2 seed if it means staying out West (side note: that would also give the NCAA another great storyline, with two potential mid-majors on a crash course in that bracket). As for Dayton, I agree with the consensus that their lack of a true "top-tier" win probably keeps them off of the top line, unless the other contenders completely collapse and leave the committee no viable alternative.

TL;DR: once again, if Duke takes care of business, it's more likely than not that we'll be No. 1 in the East. Now we've just got to finish things off.