2 or a 3 seed now? Terrible week
This highlights the main way that Duke could wind up a 1 seed somewhere besides NYC. Obviously there’s still a long way to go, so exactly who is going to be in the running by March (including Duke) is a huge question mark, but there’s several teams in the running that prefer the midwest. If two of those teams get a 1 seed, the second one could take NYC if they’re higher on the seed list than Duke. For the sake of illustration let’s assume that exactly 1 team out of Oregon, Gonzaga and San Diego State get a 1 seed (another wrench if either 2 or 0 of those teams get one). Furthermore, a plausible scenario could have Duke, Kansas and Butler as 1 seeds in some order. If the order is Butler, KU, Duke, Butler takes Indy and Kansas moves to its second choice of Houston leaving NYC for Duke. If the order is KU, Butler, Duke, then KU gets its first choice of Indy, and Butler would take NYC as it’s second choice, leaving Houston as the last region for Duke (with a high probability of Baylor as the 2 or 3 there).
Suffice it to say that given who’s in the top 20 as of today, the seed race is more friendly to east coast teams that it has been in the past. The large number of Midwest and West coast teams in the running means that Duke would still have a theoretical chance to get NYC as number 3 or even 4 overall, when in most years, number 4 overall was a lock to be kicked out west and number 3 likely had to travel as well. It’s way too early to get into the minutiae of exactly which teams prefer which regions because there’s simply too many teams in the running and very small changes at the top can impact where teams down the line go because of differences in 2nd and 3rd choice destinations.
EDIT: It has come to my attention that the title of this thread already acknowledges that it’s way too early, but I stand by my point!
2 or a 3 seed now? Terrible week
NET RANKINGS still to be updated on 1/19: AGAIN, not updated per Saturdy...
Key to me is that the NET is different than the AP poll etc. *How much does the NET count??? I am asking
1 1 Baylor Big 12 14-1 3-0 3-1 8-0 0-0
2 2 Kansas Big 12 12-3 3-1 2-1 7-1 1-0
3 3 San Diego St. Mountain West 17-0 6-0 3-0 8-0 1-0
4 4 Gonzaga WCC 19-1 6-0 2-1 11-0 0-0
5 6 Dayton Atlantic 10 16-2 3-0 3-2 10-0 0-0
6 5 Duke ACC 15-2 4-1 3-0 8-1 0-0 xxxxxxxxxx LOST to 14th Louisville at home
7 7 Butler Big East 15-2 3-1 3-0 9-1 0-0 xxxxxxxxxxxx LOST to unranked DePaul on road
8 8 West Virginia Big 12 14-2 3-2 3-0 8-0 0-0 xxxxxxxxxxx LOST to unranked K State on road
9 9 Stanford Pac-12 15-2 2-0 2-1 11-1 0-0
10 10 Michigan St. Big Ten 14-4 2-1 3-2 9-1 0-0
11 12 Seton Hall Big East 13-4 4-2 2-1 7-1 0-0
12 11 Auburn SEC 15-1 2-1 4-0 9-0 0-0 xxxxxxxxxxxxx LOST to Florida on road by 20
13 14 Florida St. ACC 15-2 3-2 3-0 9-0 0-0
14 13 Louisville ACC 14-3 3-1 1-1 10-1 0-0 BEAT 5th Duke on road
15 15 Arizona Pac-12 12-5 0-3 3-1 9-1 0-0
16 17 Wichita St. AAC 15-2 2-1 1-1 12-0 0-0 xxxxxxxxxxxx LOST to unranked Houston at home
17 16 Maryland Big Ten 13-4 0-4 3-0 10-0 0-0
18 18 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-5 1-3 1-1 10-1 0-0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx LOST to Penn State on road
19 19 Colorado Pac-12 14-3 2-1 4-0 8-2 0-0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx LOST to 15th Arizona on road
20 20 Villanova Big East 13-3 2-2 3-1 8-0 0-0
21 21 Oregon Pac-12 14-4 2-2 2-2 10-0 0-0
22 22 Rutgers Big Ten 12-4 1-3 0-1 11-0 1-0
23 23 Arkansas SEC 14-2 3-2 0-0 11-0 0-0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx LOST to UK at home
24 24 Liberty ASUN 16-1 4-1 6-0 6-0 2-0
25 26 Memphis AAC 14-3 3-1 1-1 10-1 0-0
FSU and these are top 50 ..
32 34 Virginia Tech ACC 13-4 3-1 1-2 9-1 0-0
43 43 NC State ACC 12-5 2-3 0-1 10-1 0-0
Last edited by gofurman; 01-19-2020 at 05:06 AM.
NEW NET - Duke still at 6 -color me surprised
1 1 Baylor Big 12 15-1 4-0 3-1 8-0 0-0
2 3 San Diego St. Mountain West 18-0 6-0 3-0 9-0 1-0
3 4 Gonzaga WCC 20-1 6-0 2-1 12-0 0-0
4 2 Kansas Big 12 13-3 4-1 2-1 7-1 1-0
5 5 Dayton Atlantic 10 16-2 3-0 3-2 10-0 0-0
6 6 Duke ACC 15-3 4-1 3-0 8-2 0-0
7 7 Butler Big East 15-3 3-2 3-0 9-1 0-0
8 10 Michigan St. Big Ten 14-4 2-1 3-2 9-1 0-0
9 8 West Virginia Big 12 14-3 3-3 3-0 8-0 0-0
10 14 Louisville ACC 15-3 4-1 1-1 10-1 0-0
11 15 Arizona Pac-12 13-5 0-3 3-1 10-1 0-0
12 11 Seton Hall Big East 14-4 5-2 2-1 7-1 0-0
13 13 Florida St. ACC 16-2 4-2 3-0 9-0 0-0
14 9 Stanford Pac-12 15-3 2-1 2-1 11-1 0-0
15 17 Maryland Big Ten 14-4 0-4 3-0 11-0 0-0
16 21 Oregon Pac-12 15-4 3-2 2-2 10-0 0-0
17 20 Villanova Big East 14-3 2-2 3-1 9-0 0-0
18 22 Rutgers Big Ten 12-4 1-3 0-1 11-0 1-0
19 18 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-6 1-4 1-1 10-1 0-0
20 12 Auburn SEC 15-2 2-2 4-0 9-0 0-0
21 19 Colorado Pac-12 14-4 2-2 4-0 8-2 0-0
22 27 Wisconsin Big Ten 11-7 3-3 0-3 8-1 0-0
23 26 LSU SEC 13-4 3-1 1-2 9-1 0-0
24 24 Liberty ASUN 17-1 4-1 6-0 7-0 2-0
25 31 Texas Tech Big 12 12-5 1-2 2-2 9-1 0-0
ACC has 5 in top 50 - Duke / Louiville / FSU / VT / NC State.. and UVA is close at 60- Duke has games still against FSU VT State
I think you have to put the Big 10 winner before the ACC and Big East in the #1 seed conversation. You also have to put San Diego State there if you put Gonzaga. SDSU has a very good chance to run the table before the NCAAs, but they have the same problem as Gonzaga with conference schedule.
14 losses is the worst record I can remember for an at-large bid with injuries or overscheduling. The Cheaters are 8-9 with Duke (2), NCSU (2), @FSU, @VT, @Syracuse, @Louisville, and UVA to go. They will be better once Anthony comes back, but that means 10-4 against the remaining schedule (+ ACC Tournament loss).
After two losses in one week, the most recent Bracketmatrix has Duke... still as a #1 seed.
Here are the seeds and the average of all brackets in the matrix (this shows that Baylor is a #1 on virtually every bracket and that Butler and SDSU are getting placed as #1s on a fair number of brackets):
1 Baylor 1.09
1 Kansas 1.24
1 Duke 1.35
1 Gonzaga 1.44
2 Butler 1.91
2 San Diego State 1.97
2 West Virginia 2.3
2 Florida State 2.77
3 Michigan State 2.81
3 Dayton 3.11
3 Oregon 3.13
3 Auburn 3.16
4 Seton Hall 3.32
4 Louisville 3.57
4 Maryland 4.14
4 Villanova 4.27
-Jason "Auburn as a #3 is mystifying to me, this past week really showed they might be a fraud" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Auburn? Fraud? Never forget:
Auburn 97
cheats 80
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...meId=401123392
[redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.
Bracket matrix now has us as the first 2 seed, just behind San Diego State.
Baylor . 1.04
Kansas . 1.09
Gonzaga 1.29
San Diego State . 1.64
Duke 1.71
FSU 2.50
West Virginia . 2.54
Butler 2.57
If this were to hold form (and note IN ALL LIKELIHOOD IT WONT), geographical considerations would likely mean SDSU would be the No. 1 seed in the East, and then Duke would get top geographical considerations amongst the 2 seeds and likely end up in the East as well. If we don’t get a No. 1 seed, the fact that at the moment this is the most likely backup scenario is pretty darn nice.
In reality, I highly doubt both SDSU and Gonzaga end the season with 1 seeds, if nothing else just for an optical perspective... I don’t think the NCAA would want mid-majors from the West Coast headlining two of the four brackets. IMHO any stumble from SDSU will likely send them to the 2 line at max.
Probabilistically one of the most likely scenarios at the moment I think is Gonzaga and SDSU as the top seeds in the West. That could be super interesting... and if that happens, I’d bet Michigan State lucks out and gets that 3 seed and an optimal path to the final four because Tom Izzo has a horseshoe up his behind