College Football Playoff discussion

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I will be rooting for LSU as the lesser of four evils. I predict Clemson will get it done over LSU in the final.

Funny, I would think LSU is the most evil of the 4, possible exception being Oklahoma.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Bowl match-ups beyond the top 4 don’t really excite me. Wisconsin-Oregon in the Rose Bowl looks good, maybe Michigan-Alabama in the Citrus. No faith in Baylor as a team, or UGA showing up, in the Sugar Bowl. Looks like a pretty non-compelling slate of games.

(Not sure if we are having a separate bowl thread, so posting this here).

Generally agree. Minnesota-Auburn could also be fun. Interesting to go through the list and see all of the new sponsors. The "Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl?" Because nothing says El Paso like Frosted Flakes...

[OldPhiKap]

Generally agree. Minnesota-Auburn could also be fun.

Yeah, thought about that game too, although I think Auburn is opening as a touchdown favorite.

[devilsadvocate85]

No doubt about it...luckily, all the chips fell in the right direction yesterday.

I much prefer having 4 conference champs representing rather than two teams from one conference.

You have the Gamecocks to thanks for that.

[SouthernDukie]

Funny, I would think LSU is the most evil of the 4, possible exception being Oklahoma.

Oh my, no. The order is clear. From most evil to least it’s OSU, Oklahoma, LSU and then Clemson. Do not be deceived in this.

[WakeDevil]

How many Alabama players will skip this "meaningless" game?

[elvis14]

I’ll be rooting for Clemson to put a beat down on the Buckeyes. Go ACC!

Well said, Bob. I'll be rooting for Clemson as well. Almost losing the the Cheating [redacted] sons of [redacted] from Chapel Hill earlier in the season was all the wake up call Clemson needed. Since then they have been crushing everyone in their way. Dabo has been playing lots of players in the 3rd and 4th quarters as well building depth to get the entire team playoff ready. They are ready.

As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop

Here's my prediction. Clemson is going to kick the !@#$% out of OSU just like they have the last two times they played them. Clemson fooled me last year when I thought I they would probably lose to Alabama. Nope, they crushed them. I'm not getting fooled by Dabo again!

(note, I may not be completely unbiased)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

As a Clemson student, I'd like to see you guys' unbiased opinions on how that game will go. I'm stuck between being absolutely confident and extremely nervous; it depends on the amount of Clemson propaganda I see on Twitter at any given moment.

Also, calling Klemnop

I would not be as confident as the other posters are here who think Clemson will rout. I do think Clemson will win, however. I want Clemson to win...for the ACC, and I like Dabo. But I'd not be the ranch on it

And oh, Clemson will be pulling for Duke deep in the NCAAT in hoops if we get that far, right? (is sarc tag needed)

[Reilly]

Ranking the 39 bowl games: https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...SPM-16-10abi8e

[Stray Gator]

McMurphy's record this year (from Twitter):

Final bowl projection numbers for those scoring at home (or bored to death): correctly projected 59 of 78 teams in correct bowl & exact matchup in 27 of 39 bowls, both career highs

My question is, when did he make those projections? As I recall, this is the same expert prognosticator who forecast at mid-season that Duke would be playing Florida in a bowl game. If these projections were made within the last two weeks, I'm no more impressed than I am each March when ESPN's "bracketology" wizard Joe Lunardi brilliantly scores over 90% in predicting the 68-team field at about the same time as the conference tournaments have been played -- by which point virtually any reasonably informed fan could do as well.

[Reilly]

My question is, when did he make those projections? As I recall, this is the same expert prognosticator who forecast at mid-season that Duke would be playing Florida in a bowl game. If these projections were made within the last two weeks, I'm no more impressed than I am each March when ESPN's "bracketology" wizard Joe Lunardi brilliantly scores over 90% in predicting the 68-team field at about the same time as the conference tournaments have been played -- by which point virtually any reasonably informed fan could do as well.

I agree with you 100% that picking 90+% in predicting the 68-team field on Selection Sunday is nothing impressive and that an informed fan could do as well. I think correctly slotting 27 of 39 bowl games with both teams is worlds' more impressive given all the moving parts, and I think it's proven true by the picks that were all over the map based on the few I posted yesterday. That said, his record is not just speculation but due, I'm guessing, to reporting and sources -- he's a terrific reporter (ask Jim Leavitt and Urban Meyer). As for the Florida prediction, the gripe I recall was that there was no way a top 10-ish SEC team would fall out of the NY6 bowls ... and 'Bama's placement shows there is a way, and why the Florida (or, insert any other top SEC program) prognostication was correct in the main.

[dukelifer]

I would not be as confident as the other posters are here who think Clemson will rout. I do think Clemson will win, however. I want Clemson to win...for the ACC, and I like Dabo. But I'd not be the ranch on it

And oh, Clemson will be pulling for Duke deep in the NCAAT in hoops if we get that far, right? (is sarc tag needed)

The ACC has revenue sharing and a Clemson win helps Duke in a big way. Definitely pulling for Clemson.

[OldPhiKap]

The ACC has revenue sharing and a Clemson win helps Duke in a big way. Definitely pulling for Clemson.

Works for me!

[DukieInKansas]

I would not be as confident as the other posters are here who think Clemson will rout. I do think Clemson will win, however. I want Clemson to win...for the ACC, and I like Dabo. But I'd not be the ranch on it

And oh, Clemson will be pulling for Duke deep in the NCAAT in hoops if we get that far, right? (is sarc tag needed)

I agree with the above. I will vary on my confidence in a Clemson win until the final seconds tick off the clock - even if they are ahead by 14+. In addition to Dabo, I really like their Director of Applied Science. (Actually, I love the guy but that is an aunt's prerogative!)

If the Director of Applied Science knows what's good for him, he will be pulling for Duke. Although, I'm not sure what he would do if we play Penn State or KU. I've written him out of the will before and can threaten to do it again. However, I don't think he will miss the $20.

[Stray Gator]

I agree with you 100% that picking 90+% in predicting the 68-team field on Selection Sunday is nothing impressive and that an informed fan could do as well. I think correctly slotting 27 of 39 bowl games with both teams is worlds' more impressive given all the moving parts, and I think it's proven true by the picks that were all over the map based on the few I posted yesterday. That said, his record is not just speculation but due, I'm guessing, to reporting and sources -- he's a terrific reporter (ask Jim Leavitt and Urban Meyer). As for the Florida prediction, the gripe I recall was that there was no way a top 10-ish SEC team would fall out of the NY6 bowls ... and 'Bama's placement shows there is a way, and why the Florida (or, insert any other top SEC program) prognostication was correct in the main.

Actually, because of conference tie-ins and the traditional preference not to have bowls feature the same team in successive years, I believe many if not most of the bowl matchups were already correctly slotted by other media sources more than a week ago.

As for the earlier debate regarding Florida's likely bowl destination, McMurphy's forecast that Florida would fall to the Belk Bowl -- on the theory that it would be the fifth best SEC team -- proved wildly erroneous. As it turns out, there are 5 SEC teams ranked in the final AP Top 10. (In the coaches' poll, only three are in the Top 10, with Auburn and Alabama ranked 12th and 13th, respectively.) Three of those SEC teams (LSU, Georgia, and Florida) are in NY6 bowls, while Alabama is in the Citrus and Auburn is in the Outback. While the Citrus and Outback are not NY6 bowls, both are played on New Year's Day, and both are, I think most people would acknowledge, more prestigious than the Belk Bowl.

[Reilly]

Final SRS of top SEC teams - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...9-ratings.html

2 - lsu
4 - bama
9 - uga
11 - auburn
14 - uf

Final espn fpi rank of top SEC teams - http://www.espn.com/college-football...cs/teamratings

3 - lsu
4 - bama
5 - uga
6 - auburn
8 - uf

Final AP rank of top SEC teams - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ls.html#all_ap

1 - lsu
5 - uga
6 - uf
9 - bama
9 - auburn

Final CFP rank - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ls.html#all_ap

1 - lsu
5 - uga
9 - uf
12 - auburn
13 - alabama

There are five stellar SEC teams. Three of five made the CFP + NY6 ... and two did not. In the computer polls, UF is ranked 5/5 in each among the stellar SEC teams. In the human polls, UF is ranked 3/5 among the stellar SEC teams. Good for them, UF made the upper cut. Predicting that UF would not make that rarified air -- when in fact two stellar teams did get left out of the CFP + NY6 cohort; and when computer metrics show UF to be 5/5 of the stellar SEC teams -- is not what I'd call wildly inaccurate. That is not to say UF is a bad team or undeserving -- just a realization that there are many stellar teams in the SEC, and only so many Sugar and Orange bowls.

[Stray Gator]

. . . Predicting that UF would not make that rarified air -- when in fact two stellar teams did get left out of the CFP + NY6 cohort; and when computer metrics show UF to be 5/5 of the stellar SEC teams -- is not what I'd call wildly inaccurate. That is not to say UF is a bad team or undeserving -- just a realization that there are many stellar teams in the SEC, and only so many Sugar and Orange bowls.

The original discussion centered on the prediction by McMurphy that Florida, as the fifth-best SEC team, would fall below the NY6 and below the Citrus Bowl all the way down to one of the mid-to-low level "pool of six" bowls. In defending his forecast against the suggestion that an SEC team finishing in the Top 10 would not drop lower than the Citrus Bowl or Outback Bowl, you stated that "if you're 5th or 6th in the SEC, it's hello Charlotte or Nashville or Jacksonville." But as we now know, none of the top five teams in the SEC fell that far.

For practical purposes, the only poll that really matters at this point is the final rankings of the College Football Playoff Committee. In that list, three SEC teams finished in the Top 10, and each of them is in a NY6 bowl. Auburn and Alabama finished outside the CFP Top 10, yet they are playing in the Citrus Bowl and the Outback Bowl -- both of which are played on New Year's Day, and both of which are, I submit, generally regarded as more prestigious than the Belk Bowl or the Music City Bowl or the Gator Bowl.

If you want to rely on computer rankings to bolster your opinion that McMurphy's midseason prediction of Florida vs. Duke in the Belk Bowl did not prove to be wildly inaccurate, then there's nothing further I can offer that will persuade you otherwise. But the fact remains that no SEC team in the Top 10 fell to the Belk Bowl or another bowl of comparable quality.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The ACC has revenue sharing and a Clemson win helps Duke in a big way. Definitely pulling for Clemson.

Ah, well that must explain why all the ACC fans always pull for Duke so hard deep in the NCAAT....(is sarc tag even needed?)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My question is, when did he make those projections? As I recall, this is the same expert prognosticator who forecast at mid-season that Duke would be playing Florida in a bowl game. If these projections were made within the last two weeks, I'm no more impressed than I am each March when ESPN's "bracketology" wizard Joe Lunardi brilliantly scores over 90% in predicting the 68-team field at about the same time as the conference tournaments have been played -- by which point virtually any reasonably informed fan could do as well.

Everyone goes bananas over Joey Brackets. It always inspires at least one rageful tirade from me. People act like because he is so accurate minutes before the selection committee releases their results, there is value to his earlier projections.

If I had the ability to go outside and tell you with supreme accuracy what the weather would be in thirty seconds, would you subscribe to my 45 day forecast?

[Reilly]

The original discussion centered on the prediction by McMurphy that Florida, as the fifth-best SEC team, would fall below the NY6 and below the Citrus Bowl all the way down to one of the mid-to-low level "pool of six" bowls. In defending his forecast against the suggestion that an SEC team finishing in the Top 10 would not drop lower than the Citrus Bowl or Outback Bowl, you stated that "if you're 5th or 6th in the SEC, it's hello Charlotte or Nashville or Jacksonville." But as we now know, none of the top five teams in the SEC fell that far.

For practical purposes, the only poll that really matters at this point is the final rankings of the College Football Playoff Committee. In that list, three SEC teams finished in the Top 10, and each of them is in a NY6 bowl. Auburn and Alabama finished outside the CFP Top 10, yet they are playing in the Citrus Bowl and the Outback Bowl -- both of which are played on New Year's Day, and both of which are, I submit, generally regarded as more prestigious than the Belk Bowl or the Music City Bowl or the Gator Bowl.

If you want to rely on computer rankings to bolster your opinion that McMurphy's midseason prediction of Florida vs. Duke in the Belk Bowl did not prove to be wildly inaccurate, then there's nothing further I can offer that will persuade you otherwise. But the fact remains that no SEC team in the Top 10 fell to the Belk Bowl or another bowl of comparable quality.

I believe the SEC has its list of bowl groupings on its conference page linked in that earlier discussion. You are making qualitative distinctions not listed there — in effect moving the goalposts of the discussion. Two terrific SEC teams in fact fell down to that lower tier — and that was my point throughout. UF was not one of those two stellar teams that fell out of the marquee tier, as it turned out. They easily could’ve been.