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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    College Football Playoff discussion

    Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



    538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

    That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

    -Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

    P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.

  3. #3
    It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

    What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

    And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.
    Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    From your lips to God's ears.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

    What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

    And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.
    I suppose LSU could fall out of the top four IF they got obliterated by GA, but I think is severely unlikely...(FWIW I suspect Oregon will beat Utah).

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.
    Why? They might just have the nationís best D. And it ainít like this is Kyle Whittinghamís first rodeo (2008).
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    so much for Utah's Defense of Considerable Death! Poseurs, not surprised at all. Thud.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    so much for Utah's Defense of Considerable Death! Poseurs, not surprised at all. Thud.
    Yeah, I figured you & Paul Finebaum would be thrilled. Makes the committeeís job somewhat easier, though.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Yeah, I figured you & Paul Finebaum would be thrilled. Makes the committeeís job somewhat easier, though.
    It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?
    That's what makes it easier on the committee: If serve holds in the ACC/SEC/B1G title games, they don't have to debate Pac 12 champ vs. Big XII champ (it'll go to the one-loss Big XII champ).
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?
    Yeah, if LSU dominates Georgia they (UGA) are done. Hopefully that wonít happen. I just canít imagine Baylor as one of the final four teams. That would take quite a bit of the fun out of the Playoff. Baylor would be considerably less intriguing than even Washington was in 2016

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Here are my predictions prior to todayís games commencing. And yes, I acknowledge that posting predictions after the PAC12 game is over is cheating:

    1. Ohio State
    2. LSU
    3. Clemson
    4. Oklahoma

    However, I will be rooting for Georgia to beat LSU.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



    538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

    Thatís pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

    -Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

    P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!
    I think there is something a little off about the model (possibly overvaluing conference championships), but I don't think it is totally off. Leaving out two one-loss conference champions in favor of a non-champion would be unprecedented (in the admittedly short history of the CFP). I think that factors in, I expect the committee to lean heavily on the value of conference championships to make these decisions. I also don't think the committee can put OSU in after a loss to Wisconsin, so I have no qualms there.

    What is completely insane is that if LSU, Oklahoma, and Utah all lose and Wisconsin beats OSU, 2 loss Wisconsin has a 46% (!) chance at making the playoffs, ahead of 1 loss LSU (35%), 1 loss OSU (32%), and 2 loss conference champion Oregon (4%). This is insanity (in this total chaos scenario it would be Georgia, Clemson, Baylor, and LSU).


    FWIW, I believe this is relying somewhat on historical selection data, and I don't think a team that lost its conference championship game has ever made the playoff so that might be where some of the skew is coming from.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



    538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

    Thatís pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

    -Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

    P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!
    it's postseason. win or go home. Sometimes you might get lucky and still make it in, but I won't shed a tear for a team that gets left out after losing their conference championship.
    Dear kindly Sergeant Swofford
    You gotta understand
    It's just a class was offered
    every student in the land!
    Our students all are flunkies
    Our teachers all are chumps
    Golly Moses, a total garbage dump!

    Gee, Officer Swofford
    We're down on our knees
    'Cause we don't want to take down such a banner as these
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    What are we to do?
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    Swoff you!

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    I'm down with that kind of weekend.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    If you try plugging that into the 538 calculator linked in the OP, it literally will not let you do it. One of the first things I tried.

    Honestly I think that's pretty easy though.

    Georgia
    Baylor
    Wisconsin
    LSU

    Fore real chaos, you need Clemson to still win, to make it a competition for 2 open spots instead of 3 (Clemson is 100% eliminated if they lose to UVA).

    Utah beats Oregon (this is important because Utah will actually have a case. Oregon isn't getting in no matter what)
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.

    Now you have LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Baylor, and Utah all with pretty valid claims to get in (so 5 teams for 2 spots instead of 5 teams for 3 spots).

    Or let Oklahoma win as well (making Clemson, UGA, and Oklahoma all locks) and you get LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Utah (4 teams fighting for 1 spot).

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    For the TLDR summary of my position: The only team with a chance to make it without winning their championship game is LSU, unless all​ the favored teams lose their conference championships and then OSU also might have a chance.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.

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