College Football Playoff discussion

[JasonEvans]

Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

-Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!

[budwom]

Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.

[SouthernDukie]

It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.

[Bob Green]

And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.

Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.

[SouthernDukie]

Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.

From your lips to God's ears.

[budwom]

It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.

I suppose LSU could fall out of the top four IF they got obliterated by GA, but I think is severely unlikely...(FWIW I suspect Oregon will beat Utah).

[Tripping William]

Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.

Why? They might just have the nation’s best D. And it ain’t like this is Kyle Whittingham’s first rodeo (2008).

[budwom]

so much for Utah's Defense of Considerable Death! Poseurs, not surprised at all. Thud.

[Tripping William]

so much for Utah's Defense of Considerable Death! Poseurs, not surprised at all. Thud.

Yeah, I figured you & Paul Finebaum would be thrilled. Makes the committee’s job somewhat easier, though.

[arnie]

Yeah, I figured you & Paul Finebaum would be thrilled. Makes the committee’s job somewhat easier, though.

It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?

[Tripping William]

It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?

That's what makes it easier on the committee: If serve holds in the ACC/SEC/B1G title games, they don't have to debate Pac 12 champ vs. Big XII champ (it'll go to the one-loss Big XII champ).

[Steven43]

It should, but the Baylor Bears (even with an ugly win) could throw a wrench into this. If LSU dominates UGA and both OSU/Clemson win as expected, where else can the committee go?

Yeah, if LSU dominates Georgia they (UGA) are done. Hopefully that won’t happen. I just can’t imagine Baylor as one of the final four teams. That would take quite a bit of the fun out of the Playoff. Baylor would be considerably less intriguing than even Washington was in 2016

[Bob Green]

Here are my predictions prior to today’s games commencing. And yes, I acknowledge that posting predictions after the PAC12 game is over is cheating:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

However, I will be rooting for Georgia to beat LSU.

[Acymetric]

Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

-Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!

I think there is something a little off about the model (possibly overvaluing conference championships), but I don't think it is totally off. Leaving out two one-loss conference champions in favor of a non-champion would be unprecedented (in the admittedly short history of the CFP). I think that factors in, I expect the committee to lean heavily on the value of conference championships to make these decisions. I also don't think the committee can put OSU in after a loss to Wisconsin, so I have no qualms there.

What is completely insane is that if LSU, Oklahoma, and Utah all lose and Wisconsin beats OSU, 2 loss Wisconsin has a 46% (!) chance at making the playoffs, ahead of 1 loss LSU (35%), 1 loss OSU (32%), and 2 loss conference champion Oregon (4%). This is insanity (in this total chaos scenario it would be Georgia, Clemson, Baylor, and LSU).


FWIW, I believe this is relying somewhat on historical selection data, and I don't think a team that lost its conference championship game has ever made the playoff so that might be where some of the skew is coming from.

[uh_no]

Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

-Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!

it's postseason. win or go home. Sometimes you might get lucky and still make it in, but I won't shed a tear for a team that gets left out after losing their conference championship.

[Bob Green]

Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

[SouthernDukie]

Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

I'm down with that kind of weekend.

[Acymetric]

Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

If you try plugging that into the 538 calculator linked in the OP, it literally will not let you do it. One of the first things I tried.

Honestly I think that's pretty easy though.

Georgia
Baylor
Wisconsin
LSU

Fore real chaos, you need Clemson to still win, to make it a competition for 2 open spots instead of 3 (Clemson is 100% eliminated if they lose to UVA).

Utah beats Oregon (this is important because Utah will actually have a case. Oregon isn't getting in no matter what)
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.

Now you have LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Baylor, and Utah all with pretty valid claims to get in (so 5 teams for 2 spots instead of 5 teams for 3 spots).

Or let Oklahoma win as well (making Clemson, UGA, and Oklahoma all locks) and you get LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Utah (4 teams fighting for 1 spot).

[Acymetric]

For the TLDR summary of my position: The only team with a chance to make it without winning their championship game is LSU, unless all​ the favored teams lose their conference championships and then OSU also might have a chance.

[AustinDevil]

Are we allowed to root for chaos?

Oregon beats Utah.
Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
Baylor beats Oklahoma.
Georgia beats LSU.
Virginia beats Clemson.

Make the selection committee earn their pay.

Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.