Page 1 of 30 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 588
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    College Football Playoff discussion

    Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



    538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

    That’s pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

    -Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

    P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.

  3. #3
    It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

    What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

    And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.
    Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Hopefully, Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    From your lips to God's ears.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    It is insane to think that if LSU loses to Georgia they fall out of the Top 4. No way, no how.

    What I don't want to see is Ohio State remain #1 and thereby avoid having to play both LSU/Georgia AND Clemson to claim the title. It seems to me like we are setting up for one strong semi-final (whoever is ranked #2 & #3) and one not so strong semi-final (#1 vs a lesser #4, like Utah or even Oklahoma). No offense to those teams intended, but should LSU dispatch of Georgia this weekend I think we'll have three very strong teams and once lesser team. So whoever is ranked #1 will have a distinct advantage. Hope it's not the Buckeyes, whom I actually think should be ranked below both LSU and Clemson.

    And no, that's not my southern bias coming out... Well... Maybe it is.
    I suppose LSU could fall out of the top four IF they got obliterated by GA, but I think is severely unlikely...(FWIW I suspect Oregon will beat Utah).

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



    538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

    Thatís pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

    -Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

    P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!
    I think there is something a little off about the model (possibly overvaluing conference championships), but I don't think it is totally off. Leaving out two one-loss conference champions in favor of a non-champion would be unprecedented (in the admittedly short history of the CFP). I think that factors in, I expect the committee to lean heavily on the value of conference championships to make these decisions. I also don't think the committee can put OSU in after a loss to Wisconsin, so I have no qualms there.

    What is completely insane is that if LSU, Oklahoma, and Utah all lose and Wisconsin beats OSU, 2 loss Wisconsin has a 46% (!) chance at making the playoffs, ahead of 1 loss LSU (35%), 1 loss OSU (32%), and 2 loss conference champion Oregon (4%). This is insanity (in this total chaos scenario it would be Georgia, Clemson, Baylor, and LSU).


    FWIW, I believe this is relying somewhat on historical selection data, and I don't think a team that lost its conference championship game has ever made the playoff so that might be where some of the skew is coming from.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ok, we are somewhat overdue for a thread dedicated to this, so...



    538 says that LSU only has a 63% chance of making the playoffs... if LSU loses to Ga, 538 seems to think there is a very good chance Oklahoma or Utah or Baylor will pass them.

    Thatís pretty much insane, right? I mean, iF LSU gets blown out and loses two or three star players to injury I could see it but if they merely lose a fairly normal game, they have to still be in. No other 1-loss team has nearly as good a resume as LSU does.

    -Jason "someone explain the '1-loss LSU isn't among the 4-best teams' logic to me" Evans

    P.S. - And while I am at it, can someone please explain how Ohio State misses the playoff if they lose to Wisconsin? Come on!!
    it's postseason. win or go home. Sometimes you might get lucky and still make it in, but I won't shed a tear for a team that gets left out after losing their conference championship.
    oof

    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    it's postseason. win or go home. Sometimes you might get lucky and still make it in, but I won't shed a tear for a team that gets left out after losing their conference championship.
    Yep. No team has lost a conference championship game and been selected in the (admittedly small sample size) 5 years of the CFP. No one-loss conference champion has ever been passed over by a team that wasn't either also a 1-loss conference champion or undefeated (Notre Dame).

    If LSU and/or OSU lose and are still selected, at least one of those things, possibly all of them, would have to happen this year.

    Only one 1-loss conference champion has been left out (Ohio State last year, behind 3 undefeated teams and 1-loss conference champ Oklahoma).

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    I'm down with that kind of weekend.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    If you try plugging that into the 538 calculator linked in the OP, it literally will not let you do it. One of the first things I tried.

    Honestly I think that's pretty easy though.

    Georgia
    Baylor
    Wisconsin
    LSU

    Fore real chaos, you need Clemson to still win, to make it a competition for 2 open spots instead of 3 (Clemson is 100% eliminated if they lose to UVA).

    Utah beats Oregon (this is important because Utah will actually have a case. Oregon isn't getting in no matter what)
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.

    Now you have LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Baylor, and Utah all with pretty valid claims to get in (so 5 teams for 2 spots instead of 5 teams for 3 spots).

    Or let Oklahoma win as well (making Clemson, UGA, and Oklahoma all locks) and you get LSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Utah (4 teams fighting for 1 spot).

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    For the TLDR summary of my position: The only team with a chance to make it without winning their championship game is LSU, unless all​ the favored teams lose their conference championships and then OSU also might have a chance.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Are we allowed to root for chaos?

    Oregon beats Utah.
    Wisconsin beats Ohio State.
    Baylor beats Oklahoma.
    Georgia beats LSU.
    Virginia beats Clemson.

    Make the selection committee earn their pay.
    Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.
    Still need Clemson to win to push that direction. Virginia beating Clemson would be Exhibit A for why conference champions shouldn't get auto-bids, and we're not getting to 8 teams without auto-bids for the 5 conference champions.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Yep. No team has lost a conference championship game and been selected in the (admittedly small sample size) 5 years of the CFP.
    But Ö at least one team not even playing in their conference championship was selected for the CFP. Given the imperfect nature of the college playoffs, I think just about any scenario is possible.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by 75Crazie View Post
    But Ö at least one team not even playing in their conference championship was selected for the CFP. Given the imperfect nature of the college playoffs, I think just about any scenario is possible.
    The lesson is that losing your conference championship is worse than not playing in it.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.
    So, who would be the #8?
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Not just allowed, but preferred. Because I want an 8-team playoff.
    As a commentator, I don't know who, said the other day....college FB has been in the playoffs for a couple weeks now.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Still can't believe Utah is in contention for this.
    Why? They might just have the nationís best D. And it ainít like this is Kyle Whittinghamís first rodeo (2008).
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

Similar Threads

  1. College Football Playoff 2018
    By Wander in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 210
    Last Post: 12-07-2018, 08:43 AM
  2. The College Football Playoff
    By Olympic Fan in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 333
    Last Post: 12-07-2016, 11:09 AM
  3. College Football Playoff 2015
    By Olympic Fan in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 12-06-2015, 02:48 PM
  4. Replies: 1
    Last Post: 10-15-2013, 12:38 AM
  5. Michael Kelly named COO for college football playoff.
    By jimsumner in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11-19-2012, 10:14 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •